Saturday, December 22, 2007

Actress Psychic -Point Distribution Frenzy!

Early bird Actress Psychic Oscar Contest --updated point totals here. We last updated on December 5th when Juno was opening and the NBR had just barely kicked off the "best" blather. Much awardage has happened since. Points are flying everywhere finally...

TFE reader Vincent S overtakes longtime leader Victor S (for now). The V boys have been neck and neck the whole time. Yours truly (who couldn't win anyway as the host, falls out of the top ten. Ouch) Stephen G, lodged far below for months suddenly joins the leaderswith a wicked combo of Blanchett/ Christie/ Cotillard/ HB-C December point gobbling. Stéphane L and Thomas V round out the top five but boy did this month scatter the players about. Where do you stand now?

major point gains since last update
+ 31 nominated for Globe, SAG (+2 first nom other than ensemble), BFCA and won the NYFCC and several minor critics awards (point top out at + 3 there) Julie Christie (Away From Her)
+ 31 nominated for Globe (+2 first nod), SAG (+2 foreign language), BFCA and won the LAFCA. + 1 one minor critics award (Boston) Marion Cotillard (La Vie En Rose)
+ 21 nominated for Globe, SAG and BFCA Angelina Jolie (A Mighty Heart)
+18 nominatd for Globe (deductions for 6th nom), SAG and BFCA Cate Blanchett (Elizabeth the Golden Age)
+ 13 nominated for Globe (+2 first nod), BFCA nominee (young actress) Nikki Blonsky (Hairspray)
+11 nominated for Globe and film opened Helena Bonham-Carter (Sweeney Todd) and Keira Knightley (Atonement)

minor points since last update
+8 nominated for Globe and SAG (deductions since it wasn't for lead) Cate Blanchett (I'm Not There)
+7 nominated for Globe (deductions for 6th nom) Jodie Foster (The Brave One)
+3 film opened plus a shared EW cover Julia Roberts (Charlie Wilsons War)
+3 film opened and box office points Nicole Kidman (The Golden Compass)
+1 film made the AFI Top Ten list: Laura Linney (The Savages) --she's the only one, can you believe it?
+1 film opened Vanessa Redgrave and Romola Garai (Atonement)

point oddities:
Julia Roberts got no points for her Globe nomination due to the formula of +10 Globe nod, -7 if it's supporting instead and -3 if it's the candidates sixth nomination or higher. so nuthin' for Ms. Roberts because the HFPA is just too sweet on her. Ellen Page and Amy Adams got lots of points but nobody picked them last March so there you go... nuthin. Awards gobbler Cate Blanchett reached both her 5th and 6th nomination at the Globes this year so I opted to deduct the points for The Golden Age rather than I'm Not There --editor's executive decision since she's more of a frontrunner for I'm Not There in supporting.

All that's left is one big critics prize (NSFC), a few media point possibilities, the film bitch nominations, box office of the things that are just opening, rotten tomatoes scores and then ...da dum... The Nominations themselves. Do you you have a shot at winning?


Speaking of Next Year...
(Workable) suggestions on how to improve the game are welcome. if you are scratching your noggin in a "what the hell is going on?" fashion that means you weren't around in March when we started playing this game. To get the fullest film experience you have to stick with the site after the last Oscar statue is handed out in February. There's daily hijinx here ...just a friendly reminder from your hardworking film bitch. [Best Actress Predix -last updated 12/16 prior to the SAG news]
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27 comments:

Kamila said...

Thank God for Cate Blanchett, Marion Cotillard and Angelina Jolie. I am doing well at this contest because of them, since Vanessa Redgrave and Susan Sarandon have NO hope in this Oscar race.

Anyway, I am already thinking about the next contest. :-)

Anonymous said...

"7 Reasons why a certan resurgent actress has no business being nominated for a Best Actress Oscar this year" *lol* Love that - and don't get me wrong, I love Blanchett when she's on top of her game - I still have fond memories of her smile in Oscar in Lucinda; heck, I remember the subtle delights of that entire perf far more vividly than her perf in Elizabeth (which over time seems more and more overrated). But I'm still scratching my head how such an unloved mess of a film can still snag her so much awards love over so many highly praised performances by other actresses. Isn't the performance supposed to serve the film as much as the film serves the performance?

RedSatinDoll

Carl said...

Thank you, HBC! You have single-handedly saved me from the ignominious fate of finishing last.

Does anyone know whether "The Girl in the Park" has been officially moved out to 2008 or later?

Arkaan said...

Blame the structure of the votes.

She's been nominated by three groups. The Screen Actors Guild, the Broadcast Film Critics, and the Golden Globes. None work from a preferential ballot. That essentially means that each voter gets five votes. Blanchett's status as well known, acclaimed actress helps get those undecided fifth spot votes. The relatively early release helps her over those latecomers (Marinca, Linney); the safe baitiness of her film puts her ahead of the edgier performers (Marinca again, Wei, Kidman, Judd) or mainstreamers (Adams, Foster, to a lesser extent, Knightley). It's like Annette Bening consistently showing up ahead of Uma Thurman, Julia Roberts, Nicole Kidman, et al in 2004 (but less passionate. There were many who really loved Bening's work in Being Julia).

But when it comes to the big show - I remain doubtful (hell, I think people are overrating her chances for supporting). She's not gonna get those number ones (Cotillard, Christie, Page are the top three candidates there) and there's no sentiment there for a double nod. That usually requires a weaker category (which best actress is not) and "its your year" type sentiment (that we saw Jamie Foxx, Al Pacino and Holly Hunter get in their respective seasons).

So, I wouldn't hit the panic button quite yet, Nathaniel. Right now, view it as a Russell Crowe/Zhang Ziyi type run that'll get upset before the first act climax (aka - the oscar nominations)

Anonymous said...

Let us have seven choices and let the deadline be June 1st.

Then we can drop two of the choices by a certain date

adam k. said...

I wonder if Jolie is still vulnerable as well? Because of the preferential vote thing.

I really hope Blanchett is not nominated. I am holding out hope. But who exactly would replace her? That's a tough call.

adam k. said...

Hmm, I'm surprised Keira Knightley wasn't among Nat's 7 reasons.

i am shiva said...

"Hmm, I'm surprised Keira Knightley wasn't among Nat's 7 reasons."

He ain't exactly a KK fan from what I remember. So not surprising to me.

Boyd said...

A Blanchett double-dip sounds a bit like too much honour even for her, especially taking into consideration that a) she got a statue just "yesterday" in Oscar time, b) it's a preferential vote system, c) people seem to admire her performances more than they love them this year and d) who knows if she'll want to travel to LA seven months pregnant -- and voters don't like the idea of nominating someone who's "Not There," so to speak.

adam k. said...

He didn't used to be, but he loves her now. Remember the "green dress" comment?

Also, a minor quibble: These are actually Blanchett's 6th and 7th globe nominations. She was previously nominated for:

Elizabeth (1998)
Bandits (2001)
Veronica Guerin (2003)
The Aviator (2004)
Notes on a Scandal (2006)

So either one is technically at least her 6th.

alex Cypher said...

Enough with Blanchett already. I love her, I admire her but that Elizabeth 2 : Attack of the Camp love is enough. I'm relieved she won't be in contention next year, 'coz let's face it : Indy 4 is all about Ford + Spielberg and Benjamin Button is all about Fincher + Pitt re-teaming. 'Nuff said

Now welcome back Winslet and La Moore

NATHANIEL R said...

in truth i just forgot about Keira while typing that up. I really liked her Atonement performance.

NATHANIEL R said...

anon -- i understand the point of wanting more than five choices but it kinda defeats the point.

maybe a point penalty for switching 1 or 2 of your choices for new ones in August or something? it's frustrating for example that we didn't know about JUNO and ENCHANTED when the game began... not that i expect anyone would have chosen them back then but still...

Anonymous said...

i think blanchett won't get in i think it will be knightley they lie her and she is in the big best pic,so blanchett out knightley in,my god tga was bad the only good thing was samantha morton like kate w unable to be bad in anything.

Kamikaze Camel said...

Wow, I love that even picking Natalie Portman and Julianne Moore can get me into the top 10.

Carl said...

I have thought about it some, and I do not yet see any reason for changing anything from this year's system. It has ways to score pretty much all year, with most of the points back-loaded into awards season (as it should be) and heavily rewarding success at the end. This keeps the interest going pretty much from March to January. The specific scoring for things like release, money earned, and so forth can be fine-tuned some, but the winner is still going to be decided by who picks the nominees for the Oscar correctly, or at least pretty much. (Jeez, Cotillard could score 36 points on Nomination morning!)

Leave it alone. It's fun just the way it is.

NATHANIEL R said...

kamikaze --that's because everything has some bum picks in their March shortlist ;)

Arkaan said...

Actually Nat, what impresses me is if you use the collective prediction, you could easily get 3 out of 5. If you add on the fact that the fifth ranked person (Natalie Portman) actually tied with someone else (Cotillard) and her film got booted to 2008, you could have four of the five nominees (Blanchett, Cotillard, Christie, Jolie). That's pretty astonishing guesswork right there.

Stephen G said...

Yay me for making biggest leap up the list! Weirdly, my top 5 picks from March are all still in Nath's top 9 on the Actress predictions page which is pretty good, I reckon :) Just took them till now to rack up some points!

I like the challenge of picking March/April. With Sundance over by then and Cannes looming, it's certainly not an impossible task. But this year was also weird with 3 likely nominees (Christie, Cotillard and Jolie) all on the horizon early and opening in the first half of the year.

I also like the idea of being able to substitute one pick. If you did it early enough (say 1 August), it could still prove challenging. I would probably have dropped Blanchett for Knightley then and could well have ended up regretting it...

NATHANIEL R said...

arkaan --point taken. but maybe this year is unusual? what with the early biopic obviousness (3 performances all in the collective top six fit that bill) and julie christie with a disease...

i'm already so curious to see whether the collective list in march 2008 is the closest thing to the oscar list in jan 2009

17 year old blogger said...

If I remember correctly, what you need to have is points for winning like the GG or SAG and OSCAR, which I don't think you have...Its better like that since it will hekp determine a winner and if you don't we will know the point totals and winner by Oscar nomination day.

A suggestion I have is picking 4 out of 5 by a date and then picking the last pick (which helps in the Amy Adams/Ellen Page answer) like on August 15 (or 4-6 months after the 4 pick cut off date)...I think that will help, a lot.

Kat L said...

Whew! I love Cotillard for dragging me into the 'respectability' of the midfield. Because a couple of my picks are pretty eyebrow-raising at this point of the game (okay, I admit, even at the start of the game they looked a little iffy. I was being adventurous).

gpage said...

Love the contest and it is fine as is, but a little change never hurts. I like the idea of being able to switch out 1 pick sometime in August.

While it is fun to have to see the future back in March/April, it could get ugly if a lot changes, and I do think we were lucky this year with a few clear candidates that were somewhat obvious early.

James said...

I am sorry but I thought Ashley Judd was AWFUL in Bug. Cate's performance in Elizabeth: The Golden Age was slightly cartoonish but better than Ashley Judd.

But I am in the minority I have never been impressed with Ashley Judd anyways.

Anonymous said...

I thought that Cate Blanchett was fine in "The Golden Age", and I wouldn't mind a nomination for her for that role. Will she get it? I think she will -- the BFCA/SAG/GLOBES trifecta is a big get, and though I know it doesn't guarantee anything, it's more than most of the other aughts have right now, like Amy Adams, Laura Linney, and Nicole Kidman.

NATHANIEL R said...

i thought she was fine too... in the sense that it's a totally servicable performance --much better than the film that houses it. But i really object to nominations for merely good work when there's major fully raved work around it begging for the votes. It's like giving Helen Hunt the Oscar for "as good as it gets"

Really? You really want a good performance to be regarded as the great one from an entire calendar year? Better to just say "well done" and leave it at that. A nomination is even too much.

if it was a weak year, for sure --throw in an old standby but why this year? It's not like Kidman is an obscure performer and that's just one of the examples. It's not like Adams wouldn't be a valid choice as the "star" arrival.

I get that Judd would be divisive in BUG and I totally get that some people seeing both films would prefer Cate.

But even more bothersome. Is there anyone out there who has actually seen TANG WEI's performance in Lust, Caution who'd like to claim that it's not superior to Cate Blanchett's in Elizabeth? If there is, I'm afraid i'll have to take a glove off and smack them across the face and challenge them to a deadly duel ;)

Anonymous said...

If I thought that Cate Blanchett was excellent in the film and would be deserving of a nomintion for "The Golden Age", who the hell are you to tell me that I'm wrong? Are you the arbiter of tastes now? I thought that she earned her nomination for that film, plain and simple. It isn't a statement on anyone else -- if that nomination goes to Tang Wei (it's not) or Laura Linney (too late) or Nicole Kidman (too late) or Ashley Judd (genre bias) or Amy Adams (kids film bias), then good for them. I won't hold pitch forks bemoaning Cate Blanchett's snub. But if she is nominated, I won't cry Academy foul either. If they see worth in nominating her for that performance, then more power to them and to her.