Thursday, December 20, 2007

Screen Actors Guild Nominations

Updated Post The SAG Nominations have now been announced. Guild nominations are essentially the final and most telling pieces of pre-Oscar prediction puzzles so once they announce you have the bulk of clues you're going to get before the Academy has its say names its nominees... Just how does this affect the predictions?

Cate Blanchett -Elizabeth the Golden Age
Julie Christie -Away From Her
Marion Cotillard -La Vie En Rose
Angelina Jolie -A Mighty Heart
Ellen Page -Juno

This is probably your Oscar line up. But it's disappointing that actors, who use their imagination so frequently in their day jobs, have such poor imaginations when it comes time to judging acting. Blanchett's cartoon performance (Elizabeth) is not superior to Amy Adams cartoon performance (Enchanted) if you know what I mean... And that's just for starters. Cate's hurricane strips awards groups bare apparently. Even when they have other places to honor her in deserving ways (see: supporting)

George Clooney -Michael Clayton
Daniel Day-Lewis -There Will Be Blood
Ryan Gosling -Lars and the Real Girl
Emile Hirsch -Into the Wild
Viggo Mortensen -Eastern Promises
The surprise snub here is Johnny Depp as the demon barber in Sweeney Todd. But starpower for Depp and/or Washington (American Gangster) could still knock someone out of this interesting and respectable lineup (sigh) It's not my five but I'd be fine with this as the Oscar shortlist. Not a bad performance or even a truly mediocre one here.

Cate Blanchett -I'm Not There
Ruby Dee -American Gangster
Catherine Keener -Into the Wild
Amy Ryan -Gone Baby Gone
Tilda Swinton -Michael Clayton
Supporting Actress has been a question mark all year in one way or another and continues to be with this SAG announcement. Only Blanchett, Ryan and Swinton are named every time out. Those 4th and 5th slots are still highly competitive...We can now officially worry for little Saorsie Ronan (Atonement): typically SAG is even kinder to the young ones than Oscar itself. Not good news for her or Atonement today. Fighting for two volatile spots with Oscar: Ruby Dee, Kelly Macdonald, Saorsie Ronan, Vanessa Redgrave and Catherine Keener. Jennifer Jason Leigh (see: my interview) , Jennifer Garner and Marisa Tomei probably saw their last hopes dashed here with the SAG snubs.

Casey Affleck -The Assassination of Jesse James
Javier Bardem -No Country For Old Men
Hal Holbrook -Into the Wild
Tommy Lee Jones -No Country For Old Men
Tom Wilkinson -Michael Clayton
This indicates end game for John Travolta in Hairspray (if it was going to happen, wouldn't SAG have played along?) But I still wouldn't count out Phillip Seymour Hoffman (Charlie Wilson's War) giving the boot to one of these superior performances. If there's a surprise coming --occassionally things that don't get any precursor love do end up in the Oscar shortlists-- your options are but two: Paul Dano (There Will Be Blood) and Max von Sydow (The Diving Bell and Butterfly)

3:10 to Yuma
American Gangster
Into the Wild
No Country For Old Men

These don't look so bad as ensemble choices. I'm happy to see them think about what constitutes an ensemble as opposed to what means "Best Picture"
* Updates to Oscar pages later tonight. For now, have it out in the comments.


Yaseen Ali said...

This is quite a shake-up!

- Atonement is shut out completely, even in ensemble.
- Denzel can't manage an Lead Actor nod and yet Gangster gets in for Ensemble and Supporting Actress.
- Gosling again?
- No Juno ensemble!
- No Travolta (thankfully.)
- Swinton! Mortensen!
- Tommy Lee Jones (finally) gets thrown back into the race.

Aside from the painful Saoirse Ronan snub, I'm liking these.

i am shiva said...

A total f-u to Atonement.

A sickening lovefest to El Diablo Blanchitto.

But there's some good in there too: Go Viggo!

Yaseen Ali said...

* That's supposed to be "a" Lead Actor nod.

And what the heck happened to Sweeney Todd? It seems weird that Depp is missing from the line-up. Did the movie screen too late for voters?

amir_uk said...

Wow, real surprises!

No Sweeney Todd either!

No Hoffman/Roberts!

Gutted for Knightley, McAvoy and Redgrave. But at least it meant Keener and Dee got in.

Blanchett's Oscar tally to match Winslet's 5 in a few weeks time?


it is fall focused here. not tons of love for any of the december biggies.

totally snubbed: ATONEMENT, SWEENEY TODD
less than expected for: JUNO

amir_uk said...

Can these 4 line-ups translating to Oscar. Except for Tommy Lee Jones - that's the biggest surprise.

Brodie said...

I'd rather star in a remake of 2girls1cup than see blanchett's tacky Elizabeth get an oscar nod.

Curtis said...

I'm hoping this is very good for Mortensen!! Thank goodness the race is wide open this year, with the exception of Bardem I think anyone could win in any category.

Jason said...

The SAG always comes up with some weird picks which mean nothing, but this definitely (i) hurts "Atonement" and "Sweeney Todd," (ii) puts "American Gangster" right back into the Best Pic race, and (iii) makes "No Country" the prohibitive favorite right through Oscar night, as the actors seem to love it as much as the non-acting branches do.

Andy Scott said...

So Cate's getting 2 Oscar nominations this year? Blargh.

I'm happy for Viggo and Tommy Lee Jones, though.

Pablete said...

No Amy Adams, No "Atonement", No "Sweeney Todd" and lots of violent movies. It is going to be a terrible Oscar season. This is a strange year, so we still need to wait for the other Guild Awards to figure out what is really about to happen. "Atonement" is a pure European, pure British movie, and it seems that "Hairspray" and "Sweeney Todd" are very closed in musical love. Two nominations for Cate Blanchett in such a full year of remarkable performances seem unnecessary.

amir_uk said...

Yeah, No Country is UNIVERSALLY loved. Thankfully Kelly Macdonald didn't get swept up in the love. I really have to watch the film again to reassess - might as well pretend I haven't seen it yet because I obviously didn't get it first time round. The audience I was with also didn't seem that bothered by it - no clapping which is usual at successful festival screenings. I even got quite bored halfway through. Must watch again when not tired.

Anonymous said...

I think the SAGS suggest American Gangster may have a big chance with AMPAS, despite Denzel missing out on a lead nod. If AG can get a nod for Dee and an ensemble nod, he was probably close to getting a nod. But it's a ridiculously stacked year for Best Actor, when even a supposed frontrunner for the win like Johnny Depp can't score a nod, it's not surprising that Denzel may have just missed the cut.

I'll wait to see what the other guilds say, but if AG gets some love from the PGA and DGA, I'm putting it back into my predictions across the board.

The lack of love for Sweeney Todd is worrying.

Anonymous said...

Well I'm happy with the best actress category. The trinity was nominated (as expected) and Angelina (YES!!) who people wanted to count out for some reason..I can't even imagine why...
Too bad for Keira, Adams and Linney...but never underestimate Cate.

filmguy0886 said...

Many things
-Are we seeing a 3:10 to Yuma resurgence?
-The Atonement and Sweeney Todd shut outs are telling, but I don't think they will transfer to Oscar. Especially in the case of Atonement.
Knightley and McAvoy's chances may be dead in the water at this point, but I think it can still happen for Ronan.
-Cate Blanchett is continuing her double nom status, but I'm hoping that the AMPAS don't do the same because she's taking a spot from others more deserving in lead. (ie Knightley)
-Ryan Gosling and especially Viggo Mortensen are now SERIOUS threats in the best actor race. Though it's Daniel Day-Lewis' to lose, I don't think Depp is as locked up as people say. Of the three (Depp, Mortensen and Gosling) the latter two have received more precursor love. Hmm...
-I think that either Ruby Dee or Denzel Washington will get in simply because (and I don't care what you say) since Berry and Washington won in 2001, at least 1 black performer has been nominated every year. Right now, I'd rather Dee get in.
-Page, Cotillard, Christie and Jolie are good to go and even though that fifth spot is up for grabs, I believe at least these four to be the lineup.
-No ensemble for Juno kind of kills its best picture prospects.
-Into the Wild is BACK. This looks very good for Hirsch, Penn, Keener, Holbrook and the film itself, which were shut out of the Globes. But...
-No Country for Old Men will win best picture. It's the only one that's feeling the love across the board.

Robert said...

Hooray for Ryan!

Shocked about Sweeney Todd. I expected it to go over well with the actors, not so well with AMPAS.

C.O said...

Three noms for Michael Clayton but no Ensemble?

How come Million Dollar Baby got a Ensemble nom for its three actors.

par3182 said...

jerry stiller's in one scene of hairspray and makes the cast nomination list yet little inez gets left off? that's not very fair

Rob said...

- Complete "Sweeney" shutout. Even though Depp wouldn't be in my top 5, he's certainly better than Emile Hirsch.

- Continuing the 'No Love for Linney' trend.

-"3:10 to Yuma," "Hairspray" and "American Gangster" being nominated for any sort of award.

-Boring Emile Hirsch tricking people into thinking his performance was special because he lost a lot of weight.

-The wildly dull Best Actress category.

- All the "No Country" love.

- The 3 best male performances of the year (Day-Lewis, Gosling, Mortensen) actually getting nominated. And while Clooney may not be quite on their level, he's perhaps the one celebrity I'll cheer any sort of celebration of, regardless of merit.

- Casey Affleck!!

- Sorry to be this guy... but No "Atonement"!

Anonymous said...

I will love to see Catherine Keener and Into the Wild nominated. With the Broadcast nod, and the SAG nod,Keener is in. We can also consider the "no love for Atonment", so no Ronan, maybe Redgrave, and the fact that the academy loves Catherine Keener. I loved the nominations for Supporting Actress! This is the perfect prediction!

nedim said...

Wow Nat you had Keener way down on your predictions (11?)... I didn't see this coming either

James said...

I actually don't particulary like the SAG awards-- they're the ones that fangled up Brokeback Mountain two year back and gave Crash that unexpected leap out of nowhere. And this year this dismissed one of the best performances of the year (Laura Linney in The Savages) for a bad performance in a horrid film by a great actress (Cate Blanchett in Elizabeth.) Loved her in I'm Not There, and she's totally deserved that, but why? I'm blase (and a bit bored) about the resurgence of Into the Wild (except for Keener, who was amazing), American Gangster and 3:10 to Yuma?!? I still can't believe Juno missed the big award-- it's ensemble is great, no a bad part (or actor) in the bunch!!! This is like 1999 over again-- too many actual good movies to choose from that the awards end up picking mediocre ones. At least No Country For Old Men is firmly in the lead!

Anonymous said...

I think the predictions for BEST ACTOR at the Oscar will be the same.

Cal said...

I hate these nominations. No Atonement and all the American Gangster love?!

Anonymous said...

Catherine KEENER!yES! CATHERINE KEENER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Anonymous said...

My predictions for PICTURE:

Pablete said...

This seems to be the most sexist year for movie awards I have seen. Take a look at the Best Ensemble Cast nominees. Did not the actresses (plural) do some remarkable job this year? The only exception is "Hairspray." The other movies show women playing very quiet female roles in male-centered movies. This does not seem nice to me; this would not have happened in the Golden Era. The Academy is going backwards in terms of sensitivity levels, and many levels of society too. The world is not only men; it also has lots of women. If there were not both men and women in this world, we would not even be right here. There are also children in the Earth, and Saoirse Ronan ("Atonement") and Freddie Highmore ("August Rush') were superb in their respective performances. I do not want to keep saying how distressful I feel, but these nominations ("No Country for Old Men", and "Into the Wild" and Hairspray", to some extent, are exceptions) are not the ones that our future generations should consider to remember the best movies of our time. The most artistic and full of feeling movies have been left out. No "Atonement." No "Sweeney Todd." Sad, Ver sad.

JS said...

No Charlie Wilson's War! Woohoo!

I think the PGA will save Atonement. This may be one of those years I'm happy that the SAG don't decide everything. (What is up with those ensemble choices.......)

Anonymous said...

sweeney todd, enchanted, and charlie wilson's war did not have screeners sent out for the sag awards.

Anonymous said...

From goldderbyforum, seanflynn said some days ago...

"For what it's worth (and it may be important), Disney did NOT send screeners of Enchanted to SAG nominating committee members (virtually all major competing films did except Sweeney Todd, Charlie Wilson's War, I Am Legend off the top of my head). Juno of course did. This could end up being a factor in the SAG race."

Rob said...

Hmm... do we think with this shakeup, there's a possibility the breathtaking, yet extremely odd, THERE WILL BE BLOOD has a chance of getting in for Best Picture?

Anonymous said...

NO Johnny :-(

The best actress noms are ugh.

That is all I have to say.

E Dot said...

Ya'll have to remember that actors love Sean Penn. So of course he's gonna get SAG love. AMPAS, who also love Sean Penn, may not feel as strong about the film.

lawyer tony fernando said...

How can actors judge Cate´s perf that good, I mean she´s got a lot of carisma,but aside that, her caracther is empty of any real human emotion, she´s only screaming and almost unbeliveable (not because of her, but because of screenplay)
- I don´t get the love that Angelina is getting, but is not an unworthy nomination, but I wished Jodie would get a nom, althought J Depp was snubbed but me thinks that he will be again an oscar nominee, Jodie´s chance are gone!
- I think that Keira and James have a shot, unless their movie becomes the new Could Mountain (what I´m starting to believe that will happen)
- best actor nominees, well I haven´t seen Emile, but I loved their picks, I really think that Viggo and Emile can sneak into oscar nominnes (sorry, I dopn´t think ryan can), so my nominees: Depp, Day-Lewis, Clooney, Viggo/Emile and James (if his movie is the new Could Mountain ,well Jude LAw made it)
-No Travolta for Hairspray, yeah thank God! but I don´t see TLJ as nominee, neither Ruby, it´s more like the James Garner and Cloris Leachmen noms around 3 years ago.

So Nathaniel, please answer me:
No nom for Jodie-approve it or not and could Atonement be this years Could Mountain?

Anonymous said...

Pablete, there wasn't a lot of Female oriented films this year with the exception of Juno, Waitress, Atonement & Hairspray. So I don't think it is a conspiracy.

StinkyLulu said...

Ala Supporting Actress:

The big news for me is that it seems Jennifer Jason Leigh is now officially out of contention this year.

It also seems that Atonement and Into the Wild are in parallel universes: one snubbed at Globes, one snubbed at SAG. Which suggests that anything can still happen in those 4th and 5th slots (for Supporting Actress or any other category).

And with Dee/Holbrook noms here, it makes me think that -- while the Globes are starf*ckers -- the SAGs are this years sentimental poops. (Though I think I'm. much more a sentimental poop than a starf*cker).

Peter said...

The Atonement/Sweeney shutouts are really surprising. My take on what it means:

*McAvoy is dead for Oscar
*Keira is a longshot
*This hurts but doesn't kill Ronan and Depp; my gut says they both get in.

I'd still be shocked to see Atonement not get a best pic nom -- FAR more shocked than recent high profile snubs (Dreamgirls, Cold Mountain) which were far worse films than Atonement is. Sweeney Todd looks more like a longshot for the fifth slot.

Anonymous said...

despite any of the worse choices, john travolta was snubbed and viggo got nominated. those two make overall pretty great to me.

Anonymous said...

I have been a member of SAG for 30 years and in the early years of the awards the nominated ballot was sent out to the full membership, no matter where they lived. What no one seems to remember is that nowadays the SAG nominations are determined by Screen Actors Guild members selected at random by computer. That means you might be getting aare getting people in Topeka and Omaha and their opinions are not necessarily definitive of what the Hollywood-based Academy members will like. The SAG voting panel each year trumpets the underdog, the actors perpetually overlooked for awards that they can personally identify with. That is why the SAG nominations never completely match up with the Oscars. In fact, each year brings less and less line-up with the Oscars. Don't go changing your predictions based on these SAG nods. Essentially, they are worthless in predicting Oscars.

Pablete said...

Movies are for everybody, and there were much more female characters superbly well played that the media has told us. Let's star from the very beginning, although I have not seen all this films, but 98% of them: "The Year of the Dog", "The Namesake", "Waitress", "Evening", "A Mighty Heart", "Hairspray", "La Vie en Rose", "Away from Her", "Elizabeth: The Golden Age", "Lust, Caution", "Things We Lost in the Fire", "Margot at the Wedding", "The Savages", "Enchanted", "Juno", "The Orphanage", "Love in the Time of Cholera", "Knocked-Up", "Eastern Promises", "The Brave One", "Music and Lyrics", "Charlie Wilson's War", "Sweeney Todd", "The Golden Compass", "August Rush", "Atonement"... There are lots of excellent female performances in these movies, so it is a very sexist year indeed.

Emma said...

No Saoirse or James?


Anonymous said...


i am shiva said...


Well, a broken clock still gets it right two times a day so...

Anonymous said...

there should be some concern about the sweeney snubs, but remember as stated before there were no screeners sent out for it and it is not out yet. a small number of voters would have likely seen it then. i would have somewhat expected people to have voted for johnny just for his name since he's so popular, but it isn't that shocking. as long as the studio can get screeners to the academy members in time for enough to see it, i would think it should still have a good chance at the oscars.

Yaseen Ali said...

Jonathan - Interesting thoughts, but how can you say all that when this voting body predicted practically every acting race last year (an amazing 19/20)?

For sure, they shouldn't be taken as the be-all end-all of Oscar forecasting, but I wouldn't say they're worthless.

vinci said...

Four of the five Best Actress nominees were in the top five collective picks in the Actress Contest.


i'm actually really happy about the Ensemble Nod for HAIRSPRAY --it's the perfect sort of award for that kind of film. one that has mostly consistent quality in its performances but not one stand out "must award" performance. a smart nomination I think.

I hate when this prize is a "best picture" prize instead of what it's supposed to be.

i know i'm a broken record and all but i hope that the studios will remember this day and remember last year's nominations and not put every single big gun in december.



JUNO is a perfect movie for actors to embrace (not that it's a perfect movie) and that they didn't makes me wonder about its timing. why function on ONLY hype when you actually have goods that deliver?

i can understand hiding CHARLIE WILSONS WAR from mass scrutiny but not releasing JUNO until December? i don't get it.

Deborah said...

I'm glad someone is acknowledging 3:10 to Yuma. It's one of the best movies I've seen this year and the Award Givers are mostly acting like it doesn't exist.

Anonymous said...

I can't believe they snubbed Juno for best ensemble. It was the best of the year.

And I am so ready for a Blanchett backlash. There is no way she deserves a double nom this year. The only nom she deserves for the Golden Age is a razzie, but instead she'll get an oscar nod over Laura Linney.

She's on more magazine covers than Keira Knightley and seems to be in like ten films a year.She's everywhere. actresses like Linney and Kidman get cited for being cold and technical all the time, yet cate's far more so than either of them and never gets called on it. Where's the backlash, dammit. /rant

bryan said...

remember william h. macy for "seabiscuit"? sometimes SAG noms that come out of nowhere are clearly destined to go nowhere. i get that same feeling for catherine keener here, unfortunately.

Pablete said...

If there were no screeners sent from "Atonement", "Charlie Wilson's War" and "Sweeney Todd", it means that they are still alive in the Oscar race. What we do not know is their strength among the Academy members. Since the SAG Awards are taking place earlier and earlier, they are missing the opportunity to see some of the movies that they could most presumably like.


and, i reiterate, that is not their fault but the studios for withholding the product (not that they truly withhold mind you... they do offer screenings and what have you but to be part of popular discourse --and thus truly talked about-- you need to actually be playing in movie theaters)

in the long run everything is better for the cinema and for moviegoers if the films are out there and available for viewing and discussion rather than speculation about their marketing and the hype... but obviously this is scary for the studios because they once the public has a hold of the movie, they can no longer control the discussion. The hype will eventually break down into real feelings, sometimes positive sometimes not.

steve said...

Even though the critics are dull dull dull this year, at least the larger awards bodies are shaking things up with interesting nominations (Into the Wild the nominations leader at BFCA and SAG?! The GG leader Atonement shut out at SAG?!). The fact that, in many of the main categories, the fourth and fifth spots seem so up-for-grabs is really exciting. I hope it keeps up, and maybe they'll pick some interesting winners even.

SusanP said...

I'm thrilled about the Viggo nomination and feel like while he's definitely not a lock, he is very much in the race if you couple this with other recent recognition, like the Golden Globes nomination.

I don't think this will be the Oscar line-up (can't see Depp being denied) but hope it's close.

Anonymous said...

Doesn't all this give a huge boost to Into the Wild? Kenner is now probably the favorite for that 5th spot in supporting actress. Her nod along with Holbrook's really gives traction to Hirsch as well.

1. Lewis-Lock
2. Clooney-Lock
3. Depp-Will perservere despite snub
4. Mortensen-Will perservere because of nominations
5. A death match between Hirsch and McAvoy- I hope Hirsch wins

1. Cotillard-Lock
2. Christie-Lock
3. Page-Lock
4. Jolie-Lock
5. Blanchett-Shes in. Linney has little to no traction, Knightly has too many strikes (bad public image, youth, little screen time, divisive reviews) and Adams lost major buzz by being snubbed here.

Supporting Actor
1. Bardem-Lock
2. Affleck-Lock
3. Wilkinson-Lock
4. Holbrook-Will get it if AMPAS doesnt star f**k Seymour Hoffman
5. Lee Jones-The most vulnerable but I think he gets it over Hoffman

Supporting Actress
1. Ryan-Lock
2. Blanchett-Lock. Shes not younger than Winslet is she? Does she break Winslet's record for youngest with 5 noms?
3. Swinton-Lock (yay!)
4. Ronan-The one acting nod I'm sure will perservere for Atonement
5. Kenner- I think she beats out Dee, on account of buzz for the film and her performance.

Overall, didnt the SAGs give a huge boost and perhaps even cement Into the Wild's place in the best picture race?

Cengiz said...

I just looked over at the Ensemble nods over at the SAG site and Little Inez wasnt included on the Hairspray list. But Mr Spritzer and Mr French (Paul Dooley and Jerry Stiller, respectivly) was included. I LOVED Little Inez and I thought she had a big enough role. Does anyone know how they get the list for this. I remember back when The Birdcage was nominated, Calista Flockheart wasnt on the list.

lawyer tony fernando said...

hey Nathaniel ,still wondering about JODIE and Atonement looking like this years Could Mountain


yes the lists are often extremely unfair. take THE AVIATOR for example. Matt Ross gave one of the best performances in it (Leo's right hand man) with a huge amount of screen time and he wasn't on the list but f'ing gwen stefani was.


I love Stefani but come on.

Anonymous said...

*Mcavoy possibilities are dead and almost the same case to Knightey
*Ronan and Depp are still in the race, especially if he'll won the Globe and have the online nomination but the victory for both...
*Atonement and Sweeney Todd depends for the others prizes...
*I prefer Cate Blanchett performance than Knightley. The screenplay is very bad but her performance is good... not better than "I'm not there" but she's still good
*Hirsch, Mortensen and Gosling are now more stronger... With the exception of Gosling (Nothing against him but the role is less Oscarish but now anything could happen) I say Hirsch and Mortensen have a close nomination for Best Actor...
*Into the wild proves this: "Sean Penn is beloved by actors..."
*Conclusion: One of the most intersting races in years... With the exception of Bardem anyone have the same choice of win.

Anonymous said...

Catherine Keener is a lock for a nomination in Into the Wild.

Anonymous said...

"The big news for me is that it seems Jennifer Jason Leigh is now officially out of contention this year."

Stinky, with all due respect - as far as I can tell she was never IN contention, except on the blogosphere and the minds of hopeful fans who wanted this to be her "comeback" and her "reward" way before the movie came out.

What's exciting to me is that this is still a wide open contest in many ways and such a dramatic contrast to last year when EVERYTHING was all sewn up by Forrest Whitaker and Helen Mirren by...what, by June or July? Exaggerating of course, but only slightly. The only thing that seems absolutely certain with AMPAS is "No Country For Old Men" and Javier Bardem getting their respective nods - and most likely Julie Christie. Every thing else is still wide open - and isn't that a lot more fun for the rest of us?


Anonymous said...

Oh, and the double-dipping for Blanchett? That should be against the rules for any actor in both supporting and lead catagories - unless the performances truly warrent it. (Usually when a big budget film - or even a smaller one - tanks with the critics the performers watch their award chances disappear as well - so what gives with the Elizabeth nod?) Or am I behind the times? Or am I thinking of AMPAS, where love for a film and love for a perf usually (though not always) seem to go hand-in-hand?


Anonymous said...

Emile Hirsch got nominated, but where has the love been this entire awards season for his The Girl Next Door co-star, Paul Dano? I know that Daniel Day-Lewis dominates any movie he is ever in, but I expected Dano to get mentioned by someone.


well i don't think it's as wide open as all that.

i mean i think we already know who is winning best actress and best supporting actor and if sweeney todd gets a pic and actor nomination both i think we know who's winning best actor too.

but maybe we don't.

so it is fun.

i'm still having trouble imagining ANYONE winning best supporting actress. isnt' that weird?

Anonymous said...

Ryan Gosling is almost there for a second nomination in 2 years. Good for him. It looks that Viggo Mortensen finally will be recognized. This race is AMAZING!!!! With the exception of No Country for Old Men and Javier Bardem, everything is possible.



i am shiva said...

"i'm still having trouble imagining ANYONE winning best supporting actress. isnt' that weird?"

BlandCheetos will get it. Then her fans will start screaming how Marion stole her second Oscar that year... :p

Kamila said...

- "Atonement" and "Sweeney Todd" will not win BP Oscar. "No Country for Old Men" after the SAG Awards Ensemble nomination is looking good for the win.
- "Juno" can kiss goodbye to its chances of being nominated for BP Oscar.
- I hope you are wrong and Amy Adams is nominated for "Enchanted" instead of Cate Blanchett.
- I don't think Ruby Dee is going to be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the Oscar. I am rooting for Saoirse Ronan to get the last slot.
- And the best category to watch is Best Actor. We have seven people fighting to be nominated. With the SAG snub, I think Denzel's chances are smaller.

Anonymous said...

Catherine Keener will be nominated for the Oscar. That's good!

Kamila said...

i'm still having trouble imagining ANYONE winning best supporting actress. isnt' that weird?"

Honestly, I don't see Blanchett winning her second Oscar this year. I think Amy Ryan is the typical Best Supporting Actress Oscar winner.

E Dot said...

Nathaniel, Juno was actually supposed to be released next year. However, they got such great response at their test screening, they decided to go with it and release it this year. Smart decision? I'm thinking it hasn't hurt thus far. However, I do agree that December releases (a tactic that once helped a film's oscar chances), now is extremely hurtful. Ideally, Juno would have had an earlier release. But I wouldn't count it out for an Oscar nomination just yet. I just got the screener last week. So they're still getting the film out there. I'm thinking voters will enjoy this lighter movie during the holidays and may lean towards it come voting time (with the support from the younger generation) There's usually a slight surprise come announcement day. I'm still strongly supporting this one - despite its release repercussions.

Tejas said...

The Good:
-Viggo and Gosling Nominations!
-Tommy Lee Jones for No Country (and NOT In the Valley of Elah). I like the double supporting actor nomination for this movie. This is definitely Tommy Lee Jones' best performance this year. Now if only Josh Brolin can get some attention...
-Casey Affleck nomination for Assassination

The Bad:
-Best Actress Category. Seriously, can one choose a more banal display of acting talent? Other than Julie Christie and Ellen Page, all of these performances are expected. I like Angelina Jolie and Cate Blanchett, but are we merely awarding actors for stepping outside their stratosphere of celebrity stardom and delivering a good performance? They key word here is GOOD. These aren't bad performances, but to highlight them as the creme de la creme of this year's female acting talent is totally disingenuous.

-Love for American Gangster: I've seen the movie now, and I cannot understand the love. This is the same point I made about Best Actress category. Are we going to award movies that resort to the same banal, mediocre Hollywood antics in an attempt to package some kind of plastic insight (i.e. the atrocious Crash), or are we going to award movies that both entertain and challenge?

The Indifferent
- The love for Into the Wild (which I just saw) and Atonement (again, blah). I'm not against these movies as much as I am American Gangster (which I think is full of shit), but I guess I couldn't connect with them as much as I did with Eastern Promises, No Country for Old Men, Sweeny Todd, or even Juno.


i'll agree that they made the right move IF it gets a BP nod. if not it was a miscalculation. other than how young it skews it's sort of the ideal "light counterprogramming" oscar entry but,you know, LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE would not have been been up for BP if it had been released in december. Some films need a huge public embrace to be deemed prestigious enough if they have no inherent prestige going in


i should finish my point. and JUNO is obviously going to be embraced by the public. but ballots go out on dec 26th don't they? will Juno be zeitgeisty enough by then?

frankly i don't understand why it wasn't built up for thanksgiving the way it's been built up for christmas

John T said...

Nat, I don't think we necessarily know who is winning Best Actress-Cotillard may have the edge, but it could very well be a Christie comeback.

I also agree that there will be at least one nominee whom neither the Globes nor the SAG Awards mentioned (last year, I believe, is the only time that hasn't happened). As I see it, the best shot in each category for this to happen would be:

Actor-Frank Langella
Actress-Laura Linney
S. Actor-Max von Sydow
S. Actress-Vanessa Redgrave/Kelly MacDonald

Clearly, this is most likely to occur in either Best Supporting Actor or Best Supporting Actress. I'd wager that either No Country love or legend worship will land Redgrave or MacDonald the fifth slot over Ronan or Keener.

E Dot said...

Juno definitely is on the edge. It has already gained overwhelmingly positive responses from critics and its fanbase. It just hasn't taken the box-office by storm (which usually means a hell of a lot).

When I saw it in November, they were handing out t-shirts, pencils, posters, had a contest to win a guitar, etc. They were going all out. I think they came pretty far in a month. Another two weeks (crunch time), may be all the difference this little film needs. But only time will tell, eh?

Anonymous said...

Catherine Keener is now a lock for a nomination for Best Supporting Actress. I'm happy with the nominations for Into the Wild. A film directed by Sean Penn, with Marcia Gay Harden, William Hurt, Emile Hirisch, Catherine Keener and Hal Holbrook is just amazing!

adam k. said...

Yeah most of the wins do seem quite locked up, actually. No Country is now dominated the big race in a major way, and there's no reason to think Christie or Bardem will not carry through to wins. And Nat, why do you have trouble seeing anyone win best supporting actress? It's not that hard to imagine BLANCHETT winning (which we've known would happen forever), particularly when she will likely have a lead nod too and apparently has ascended to Godlike status.

Actor has gotten a bit dicey with this Depp snub (he can't be considered a real frontrunner when DDL wins both the drama globe and the SAG) but I do think he'll still win best actor in the end, since apparently this snub is mostly the fault of their not sending screeners.

Sad about Atonement, though. If that one DID send screeners, then I'm really quite mystified as to why no one made it, especially Ronan. I think it's still very much in the race for pic/director/screenplay/cinematography/score/costume etc. but the actors are in trouble. And it's also obviously no longer the frontrunner to win the whole shebang... double digit noms are now looking unlikely.

Though I like it's chances to win both the BAFTA and the globe. And if it does, maybe things'll start looking different.

John T said...

Also, there's typically at least one person who gets shortlisted by both the Globes and the SAG Awards and doesn't land it. The obvious contenders here are Gosling and Blanchett (for Golden Age), and I think it'll end up being Gosling (too comedic, and is he really going to be able to trump Denzel?).

Anonymous said...

My predictions for Best Supporting Actress:
Amy Ryan
Cate Blanchett
Tilda Swinton
Catherine Keener
Vanessa Redgrave

adam k. said...

John T, why do you think Cotillard looks like any kind of frontrunner? She's done nothing to suggest she can overcome the foreign film hurdle. CHRISTIE is going to win... I'd bet money on it.

And why aren't people still on the "Blanchett is obviously going to win best supporting actress" bandwagon that they were all on a month or two ago? If she's up for two, she's clearly winning one. There's no explanation for all these double nods other than that people just want to throw as many awards at her as they can. So unless you think she's winning best actress for Golden Age (please God NO), she'll be winning for I'm Not There. Amy Ryan is just a less hot and soulful Virginia Madsen type.

Anonymous said...

It is so clear Blanchett getting a double nomination. The same thing happened with Sigourney Weaver,Emma Thompson, Holly Hunter, Julianne Moore...

Anonymous said...

My conclusions:

*Nomination for Hirsch, Gosling and Mortensen: Three of the best performances of the year... Only for Gosling I doubt he will win a nomination right now but in this strange and crazy Oscar race anything could happen...
*No John Travolta and Keira Knightley: Two of the most overracted performances. Travolta is just OK but I prefer Michelle Pfeiffer. Knightley is a mediocre actress and this role is the proof
*I love Cate Blanchett and I like her performance in "The golden age". It's not better than "i'm not there" but she´s still very good in a bad film.
-Angelina's love is true... ¡¡Yahh!!
*Tommy Lee Jones... Maybe the hardest competition to Javier Bardem is in home.
*Ruby Dee and American gangster: Resource by the ashes... If Redgrave doesn't have the nomination for veteran actress, Ruby Dee could be the only change for the film to the Oscars...
*Into the Wild: Sean Penn is beloved and admire by the actors...
*Catherine Keener: Now she's a strong contender
*No Atonement: McAvoy's chances are completed dead and almost the same case for Knightley... Only Ronan is the hope for the acting category
*No Sweeney Todd: Why?? One of the best films of teh year... Johnny Depp is still in the race, especially if he win the Globe. i believe he'll be nominated but the victory is almost impossible. The same for Burton. Bonham Carter's changes like McAvoy.
*Laura Linney: Only a miracle or alliance with powerful people (Eastwood, Penn, Sarandon...) will save her and finnally get a nomination
*^Hairspray!!??: I know this is a good film but Oscar worthy!!??... Only The globes could give the answer...
*George Clooney: MC is a good performance but not great... Why?. Johnny Depp must be in his place

Anonymous said...

With the possible two nominations this year, Blanchett will get five nominees in her career. 4 in the last 4 years.

StinkyLulu said...

"Stinky, with all due respect - as far as I can tell [Jennifer Jason Leigh] was never IN contention, except on the blogosphere and the minds of hopeful fans who wanted this to be her "comeback" and her "reward" way before the movie came out."

Well, yes, that would be me. (I did say "the big news for me"...)

And, though Keener is (along with Blanchett) the reigning "when in doubt" nominee for Supporting Actress, I don't see that Keener's a lock. Not yet.

Ryan & Swinton, yes; Blanchett, probably. But the remaining slots are up for grabs among some really solid and different contenders (Dee, Keener, Ronan, Garner...the list goes on.)

And as far as the "classic Supporting Actress" goes: that'd fit as easily for Ronan as for Ryan. (And, frankly, I don't see Ryan taking the trophy.)

So the niftiest bit of the SAGS for me is that it seems to unsettle what had appeared to be the only settled contest.

John T said...

Adam-I can't help but feel that Christie falls under the Sissy Spacek rule of 2001, where the frontrunner before the awards start getting handed out ends up losing out to one of Oscar's favorite hooks. Keep in mind, of course, that both will likely come into the Oscar ceremony armed with a Golden Globe, and that Christie already has an Oscar (if she didn't this would have been a done deal the moment Away From Her premiered). Granted, Christie very well could take it, but I don't think the race is nearly the done deal that, say, Best Supporting Actor is.


well is anything a done deal? I realize BARDEM will be very very hard to beat... but can't you see a scenario where Holbrook builds up some steam on account of the "reward the career" angle on his first nomination. Especially if the film makes it a high nomination count.

but if this is like 2003 (and it might be) we'll be seeing DAY-LEWIS, CHRISTIE, BARDEM, RYAN on Oscar night... since that's who is already winning everything

Brooke Cloudbuster said...

Personally, I enjoyed Blanchett in The Golden Age and may be the only person to have done so, judging from the comments here. Her spot could go to better performances, but I think it's a totally respectable nomination.

The lack of Atonement distresses me, but I don't think it'll carry over to Oscar.

Anonymous said...


Kamila said...

"And why aren't people still on the "Blanchett is obviously going to win best supporting actress" bandwagon that they were all on a month or two ago? If she's up for two, she's clearly winning one. There's no explanation for all these double nods other than that people just want to throw as many awards at her as they can. So unless you think she's winning best actress for Golden Age (please God NO), she'll be winning for I'm Not There. Amy Ryan is just a less hot and soulful Virginia Madsen type."

Adam K., clearly you are forgetting about 2003. Julianne Moore was a double nominee: Lead Actress ("Far From Heaven") and Supporting Actress ("The Hours"). She lost both!

For now, I am going to continue with my predictions and say that Amy Ryan will win the Best Supporting Actress Oscar for her work in "Gone Baby Gone".


UGH. i have to stop thinking about best actress. I am so disappointed in the mentality that puts BLANCHETT's redo above...


it's craziness. I'm totally fine with Blanchett getting nominated for I'm Not There. It's a smart technically impressive turn in an interesting film. But this at the expense of so many talented people? ARGH. I blame the BFCA and SAGs for thinking inside the box and pushing the name back to the forefront.

I worship meryl streep but it's like when she gets nominated for one of her minor efforts... It doesn't actually benefit anyone to reward average stuff when there's greatness handy.


brooke i should be more clear: i enjoyed Blanchett in The Golden Age too. easily the only reason to see the film. She was very funny and watchable but she's totally coasting... that was no complex read of a complicated character it was just able showboating scene work. More than that film deserved, sure... but way below what you should be handing people prizes for.


(ignore me. i've gone and lost my mind. this always happens to me during precursor season about something or another)

lylee said...

Very very glad for Viggo...I think this seals the deal for an Oscar nomination, or at least I'm hoping so.

Meh on Emile. He was fine, good even, but one of the best of the year? Not even close. Similar feelings on Clooney, though I've resigned myself to his getting nominated.

John T: I hope you're right - about Langella, I mean. But I'm losing hope. There has been no marketing whatsoever of this movie, for reasons unclear to me (budget? strike? general cluelessness?) Already hoping he has better luck next year with the more high-profile "Frost/Nixon."

Moderately glad for Tommy Lee Jones, but this reminds me: why no love from anyone for Josh Brolin? IMO he actually delivered the best performance in "No Country for Old Men."

Was never sure "Atonement" was as much an Oscar lock as some people seem to think...though I think it'll bag at least a few nominations.

Anonymous said...

Good for Into the Wild! Well deserved imho.

And Gosling's performance is not really comedic. Snagging BFCA/GG/SAG noms makes him an obvious contender now, although some people did call it earlier in the race.

Anonymous said...

tejas. I really liked American Gangster, I think people tend to forget that art is subjective.

Carl said...

Good Lord, is there any hope left for sanity on the Best Actress front for Oscar?


I agree with what some of the other folks have written, and especially on two issues:

1. The potential for buyer's remorse.

Nathaniel has already noted that Blanchett was nominated instead of a gaggle of more worthy performances. It is possible that the SAG members are reading what their nominating "random" committee hath wrought - and it is leaving a very bad taste in their mouths. For many Academy members, we may see the words "Blanchett", "Golden", and "ugh" all in the same sentence. They have until 26 December to decide and, hopefully, correct the oversight.

2. They haven't seen them all.

Still a problem for nominally busy actors who are working and not going to theaters. During the Christmas/WGA 'break', the Academy members in general and the SAG members in particular may take the time to catch up on what they have missed or, in the case of December releases, have not had a chance to see. Lots of actressy goodness late in the year that is of sufficient quality to knock Blanchett (and maybe Jolie?) out of the top five...if the members see it.

So I will wait until the Fat Lady sings in late January. Don't pop my bubble 'till then...let me live in hope.

Tejas said...

To anonymous; In my subjective opinion, American Gangster is a lousy piece of art. Like Crash, it is a movie so convinced of its own insight and importance that it rams its "message" in your head to point of emesis. It can't trust that its audience will be smart enough to understand complex narratives, characters, or scenarios. Oh look! Frank Lucas has some stability in his life, but he is a bad guy. Richie Roberts has a lousy domestic life, but is a good cop. Oh, the irony! Frank Lucas is a businessman, and has a code of ethics and embodies capitalistic virtues, but also, he is in the drug game. He is the perverted realization of the American dream. Get it? See! It makes so much sense! And to make the statement even more pompous, we will have him shout out "This is America!" and "My country." There is nothing in the script that suggests what feeds his character's empty drive towards progress in the drug game. Is it greed? Compulsion for power? Disillusionment with the system? None of these rationales are produced in a coherent or sensible light. This movie doesn't aim to be mere box office entertainment, along the lines of We Own the Night (in which case, this claptrap could be excused under the premise that this is "just an action movie.") This movie strives for more, so much more. In its own quest for deep symbolism, American Gangster finds nothing but hot air.

Anonymous said...

I'm thrilled that Cate Blanchett managed two nominations for the SAG's, and I hope that she does it for the Oscars too. Shove the Cate hate already.

Anonymous said...

If screeners weren't set out to "Sweeney Todd" or "Enchanted", then that could justify the snubs for Depp and Adams. But at least in Adams' case, did they need screeners? They have the ability to see the films in theatres just like everyone else, and it is a hit, right? They got the screeners for "Atonement" though, and they just didn't like it.


anonymous can you be more specific. where should this alleged catehate be shoved? and why? frankly... i don't think several people feeling that her ELIZABETH performance is way under the achievements of some other actresses this year is "hate" but than again. I'm not a Blanchettmaniac.

thinking someone is not deserving of TWO nominations when they've only given ONE special performance is not hate. It's just awards season.

lawyer tony fernando said...

ohh, that post of yours with Kidman, Foster, Wei, well my dream nominees list!!!!!!!!! Orgasm!

lylee said...

tejas: while I didn't hate "American Gangster" as much as you did, you summarized EXACTLY why I didn't like it that much, either. Spot on!

Anonymous said...

Julie Christie is now the front runner, but she won critics prizes. Right now only two big prizes was the New York Critics and National Board of Review. Cotillard won Los Angeles Critics.
The next prizes are important and redefine the race... If Cotillard won the SAG, National Society of Critics and the Critics Choice and/or the Golden Globe she'll be the front runner against the many little prizes from Christie or Page. Right Helen Mirren and Charlize Theron won the little and the big prizes, but Halle Berry and Nicole Kidman won few but the most important prizes... Berry (SAG and NBR) and Kidman (Golden Globe)

Anonymous said...

I'm not a "Blanchettmaniac" or whatever the hell that means simply b/c I thought that both of her performances this year were worthy of Oscar consideration. The constant Cate hate is just old -- it's either she mimics all the time or we're tired of seeing her nominated all the time (which she isn't) or she's too technical or a host of other complaints. There are people who thought that she was excellent in "The Golden Age", transcended a poorly conceived nod, and deserves to be nominated based on merit and not rote Academy laziness. She's coming up again and again, so don't be surprised if she manages to be a double nominee.

Anonymous said...

transcended a poorly conceived film . . .

Rich Aunt Pennybags said...

I know you didn't mention the television nominations, but I just had to complain about the lack of anything for Longford. I can't actually believe that Jim Broadbent and Samantha Morton were passed over. No offense to Michael Keaton or Debra Messing (sorry they just seemed to be the weakest actors overall in their categories), but were their performances actually better than Broadbent's and Morton's. I can understand why Samantha Morton may not have picked up a nomination because there may have been confusion if she was supporting or a lead since she's been nominated in both categories everywhere else, and there's been a lot of diva rumors surrounding her which probably means she's not too terribly popular with some SAG members. However, I don't understand why Broadbent was overlooked.

but if this is like 2003 (and it might be) we'll be seeing DAY-LEWIS, CHRISTIE, BARDEM, RYAN on Oscar night... since that's who is already winning everything

Even though it seems sort of boring now, I really wouldn't mind that line up at all. I just don't want to see Cotillard win. I'm just sick of mimicry, and I don't think her movie can compare to The Queen. Besides that, I hate that there seems to be an unspoken rule that women over a certain age who have already won an Oscar can't win another won even if they deserve it. (Hello Ellen Burstyn and Sissy Spacek.) On the plus side, maybe it will be eaiser for Christie because I'm not sure that I would exactly classify Marion Cotillard as the hot young actress (Julia Roberts, Halle Berry, Charlize Theron) that the veteran actress loses to.

Finally, I'm also disappointed about the Blanchett double nomination. I think she's a wonderful actress, but with this being such a great year, I don't see the need to. Even if she is nominated twice, I guess I'm the contrarian here in thinking that she won't win since she already won a supporting actress award just a few years ago. I think the double nomination will be reward enough for her.

amir_uk said...

Wow, 105 comments already?! Nathaniel are you experiencing higher traffic than ever this season? Too many interesting/inspiring comments here!

I agree with RedSatinDoll who said that double-dipping just shouldn't be allowed - in my own picks ever year, I always limit an actor to one nomination across all categories (and even for tech categories too) - even if I love them and both their performances/works. There's always too many great performances that get overlooked when people get 2 noms in a year. Nathaniel, also agreed with that list ahead of Golden Age Blanchett - Wei, Knightley, Linney, Foster, I'd add Berry too. (Haven't see Margot yet dammit.)

That Actress list is a bit depressing. LOVE Christie and Jolie (she is, perhaps, my Best Actress), that's about it. But there were also loads of picks I LOVE (4 in every other category) so it's all over the place for me this year.

The more I think about it, the more I'm upset about Knightley, McAvoy and Redgrave's snubs. They were all so perfect in that film.

Also agreed that HAIRSPRAY nom is very smart - it's the most perfect fit of a reward for that generally great cast.

Supporting Actor looks so good this year though. It's the best it's been for ages and I'm actually really excited about that race for the first time. Holbrook, Bardem, Affleck, Wilkinson all so worthy. If only people saw HOMAYOUN ERSHADI in The Kite Runner though - it's a beautiful performance in the tradition of Gregory Peck in To Kill a Mockingbird.

Also Bryan, I think Tommy Lee Jones is this year's William H Macy (SAG nom that goes nowhere) and not Keener (that's what I'm hoping anyway).

Kamikaze Camel said...

Am loving the Hairspray nod. Am not loving the Into the Wild stuff outside of ensemble and perhaps Holbrook. Am I the only one who doesn't know who Hal Holbrook even is? Like, I keep reading about all this "career achievement" stuff but I'm drawing a blank.

The lack of Atonement nominations is both surprising and not. I saw the movie two nights ago and I can totally see why it didn't get nominated (I just assumed it would). Keira isn't in it enough for awards bodies like these (although atm she's in my top 5, she's amazing), James' performance isn't B-I-G and doesn't have an angle to play like Gosling, Ronan, while excellent, plays a character that is so far from Breslin's Miss Sunshine that it's funny, and Redgrave is in it for 8 minutes. I was sure Redgrave would get in because they lovelovelove veterans, but they went with Ruby Dee instead.

I still think the movie will be big with the other guilds and we'll still be seeing pic, dir, supp actress, screenplay and tech nods.

Could the HFPA feel bad for Atonement and give it their big prize? Including an acting one perhaps for Ronan?

Kamikaze Camel said...

Also: Russell Crowe got SAG, GG and BFCA nominations for Cinderella Man yet didn't get an Oscar nod so I'm still thinking Blanchett won't make it for Oscar. Others like Camerona Diaz also got those three citations and missed with Oscar. I'm sure there's others, too...

Nominations post-2000 that SAG gave us but the GG and BFCA didn't:
Don Cheadle, Crash
Ziyi Zhang, Memoirs of a Geisha
Cloris Leachman, Spanglish
Freddie Highmore, Finding Neverland
William H Macy, Seabiscuit
Peter Dinklage, Patrica Clarkson, ensemble, The Station Agent
Michelle Pfeiffer, White Oleander
Judi Dench, The Shipping News
Dakota Fanning, I Am Sam
Jamie Bell, Billy Elliot
Gary Oldman, The Contender
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Flawless
Chris Cooper, American Beauty

So there you go. Of course last year they matched up 100% if I'm not mistaken, so...

Kamikaze Camel said...

Okay, I was wrong. Ziyi Zhang was Golden Globe nominated for her Memoirs performance.

Remember on the SAG ceremony when they chose a clip of Zhang looking as their nomination clip, which went a long way to show how bad it actually was.

steve said...

Stinkylulu, re: Keener

Is there any actress out there more deserving of such a "when in doubt" nomination reservation? Patricia Clarkson, I guess. Still, Keener's always so good it's hard to begrudge her any attention, even if she's not in my own Top 5. Sorta like how I feel about Hairspray: it probably won't make my Top 10 even, but I'd be thrilled if it snuck onto the Best Picture shortlist because it's just so fun.

Glenn, re: Holbrook

He's most famous for playing Deep Throat in All the President's Men, but he was also extremely successful for a long time in television, with a truckload of Emmy nominations/wins. Sort of an Alan Alda type.

Kamikaze Camel said...

Oh, I remember reading he was in All the President's Men.

I'd prefer Keener's nomination for Into the Wild than the one she got for Capote, but she wouldn't make my shortlist.

chandler said...

Overall the Best Ensemble lineup is very weak for me. Into the Wild and No Country for Old Men are two of the best films of the year and deserving of nominations but Hairspray and AMERICAN GANGSTER? uh-uh...both of them are good and well-done but not award-worthy. Haven't seen 3:10 to Yuma so wouldn't know.

Actor-depressed about Depp's snub, but at the same time very happy for the Mortensen, Hirsch, and Gosling (YES!!) nominations. Great performances in great films.
Actress-Love the Jolie nom. I think people have dissed her because of her celebrity status, but she gives one of the most accomplished and powerful films of the year. It would be awesome if she upsets Julie Christie for the win. Iffy about Blanchett--but she's the Meryl Streep of this generation so she'll make it simply on her respect factor (but i'm honestly glad she took it over Amy Adams--Jesus, that's simply not an oscar performance).

Sad about no Atonement or Sweeney Todd love, but I think both of them will prevail (hopefully!) since both have received very strong reviews. But I think Knightley and McAvoy will simply fail to grab nominations because their performances are just not as front and center as their competitors.

chandler said...

O, and it just me or is this Catherine Keener love a little nauseating? I mean she's always solid--but it really kind of upsets me that she's always the "go-to girl" for a nomination. She's good in Into the Wild (better than Capote---did she even do anything in that besides look depressed?)--but is it better than brilliant performances like Saoirse Ronan, Marisa Tomei, Jennifer Jason Leigh, or even Jennifer Garner?

Brooke Cloudbuster said...

Blanchett wouldn't make my shortlist, personally. Don't get me wrong, I love the performance; even if it pales in comparison to her Elizabeth performance. Should it be rewarded over better performances of this year? No, probably not. But is it a worthy nominee? I think so.

At least there's some joy to be got out of watching this performance, is what I'm saying. It's not the best display of her talent, but like Faye Dunaway in Mommie Dearest; it's a fun ride while it lasts.

I'm making a mess of my mind here. I'm not overjoyed that she's been nominated (but it's good that they can reward a performance despite the quality of the film) but I'm not mad or outraged. Sure, there were more deserving nominees, but there's always more deserving nominees.

Only three of these nominees for Lead Actress would make my personal shortlist. Christie, Cotillard and Jolie. Like the rest of you, I ask where is the Wei? The Judd? The Adams? The Bonham-Carter? The Linney?

And hey, even the more unlikely! Where's the Berry? The Russell? The Marinca? The Karanovic? The Sagnier? The Posey? The Chen?

And the most unlikely. The Yann Yan Yeo?

I've sort of gotten over getting angry when Oscar overlooks more deserving performances. Right now, I just hope that it nominates performances that aren't utter travesties. Zellweger, Cold Mountain, anyone?

Lyn said...

Nat: have you seen 3:10 to Yuma yet?


i haven't. unfortunately i haven't been able to get my hands on a screener and it's not playing anymore.

it'll be one of those unfortunate misses that happens bi-annually. unless someone sends me one within the next couplea days


anonymous ---with all due respect the people who feel she deserves a nomination for the golden age. I just really question that they've seen BUG or MARGOT AT THE WEDDING or even THE BRAVE ONE or THINGS WE LOST IN THE FIRE or... you know. I could go on. It's a very strong year for Best Actress. So why?

and while I agree with the naysayers that Amy Adams doesn't really give an "oscary" performance in ENCHANTED I think what she's doing is more interesting and just as film carrying as what Blanchett does in THE GOLDEN AGE. I'm the last person who wants the superstars to be passed over to "give fresh faces a chance" --i hate the constant. 'enough of this person, new people please!' thing if the superstars are deserving. But if they aren't, jesus christ give someone else a turn at the big show.

i guess it's like 1999 in best picture. If there's too many great films they cancel each other out and you get middle of the road nominees

Kurtis11 said...

I knew Ruby Dee was gonna sneak in there...entirely unfair to Saorsie Ronan, if you aks me. Ronan had better make the Oscar shortlist - she was superb. As for Knightley and McAvoy not making the cut, I'm really not all that surprised. Their turns were fine, but nothing out-standing. If anything, McAvoy's got the shot over Knightley.
Keener gave a warm performance in "Wild", but she seems to be someone voters will nominate simply for breathing, like McDormand.
I'd love to see Emile make it to the final five.

Kamikaze Camel said...

Nat, can't you hire the DVD from somewhere (for 3.10)? Or isn't it out yet?

Danny said...

The Atonement snub pisses me off. I would have thought Knightley and McAvoy would be in, and I thought Ronan was a lock.

I haven't seen Juno, but I thought an ensemble nod was going to happen.

good for Swinton, though. God, she rocked.

Anonymous said...

That's arrogant to make presumptions about what people have and haven't seen. I'm very fine with Cate Blanchett's nomination for "The Golden Age", and I've also seen Halle Berry, Ashley Judd, Tang Wei, and Jodie Foster. It's not to say that they wouldn't have been worthy nominees, but it's no reason to knock Cate's nod so easily. It was a great performance in a mediocre film. She gets huge credit in my book for salvaging the performance that she did and remaining unscathed in the process (though I get that her greatness in "I'm Not There" softened the blow there considerably).

Re: Hal Holbrook

He's also a former Tony nominee to add to his storied television career and Emmy nominations.

Anonymous said...

I think that Catherine Keener did more in fifteen minutes of "Into the Wild" than she did all the way through "Capote", so I'd be okay with her making it to an Oscar nod. Maybe not over some others, but the performance is good enough to go the distance. Tilda Swinton's done such, such better work than what she did in "Michael Clayton", so it's sad that this is the time when the rest of the world goes, "oh, let's get around to nominating you now that you've picked this rote and glossy mainstream film to attach yourself to". And even though no one's happy for her, legacy or no legacy nomination, I'm glad that Ruby Dee was nominated here. She's awesome and a grand dame of the highest order, and I'd like to see her go out with an Oscar nomination to her credit. She should have been nominated already for something, like "A Raisin in the Sun".

amir_uk said...

Anonymous just above me - I'm happy about Ruby Dee!!

Also I was thinking, Keira Knightley didn't get a SAG nom for Pride and Prejudice, and Jude Law didn't get one for Cold Mountain. Also, they passed over the Closer duo when all the other awards bodies were going for them. So there still might be hope for Knightley and McAvoy this year - wishful thinking?!...

On average, we have to assume that 4 nominees from each of these categories will translate to Oscar (although because this year is quite similar to 2003 in that citations are a bit all over the place, it might be more like 3 conversions in some categories).

Supporting Actress - I think Keener will be replaced by Ronan.
Supporting Actor - Jones will be replaced by Hoffman.
Actress - Blanchett will be replaced by Knightley.
Actor - most open of all now, so I think Hirsch will be replaced by Depp and perhaps Mortensen will go in favour of McAvoy.

Not what I want in some of the cases, but my predictions for Oscar nonetheless.

Cagatay said...

It's really unfair that nobody bashes nomination of Ruby Dee who is nodded for a PATHETIC film, while everybody keeps talking about how silly Enchanted and The Golden Age were.
Both were better than the retarded gangster film which has been done 564656863169 times before.

Anonymous said...

Where is the ensemble cast of I'm not there? Where is Saorise Ronan? Where is Laura Linney? And Philip Seymour Hoffman?
Ruby Dee nominated for 2 scenes? Bah...
James McAvoy Keira Knightley, Denzel Washington, John Travolta and Johnny Depp snubbed? That's perfect!
I'd like a victory for Marion Cotillard and Daniel Day-Lewis.
The beatiful Cate Blanchett eill win for I'm not there, or they'll prefer Amy Ryan? (I prey for Blanchett)

Sorry for my terrible english (I'm italian)

Rik said...

I can't believe no Savages!!!!!

altfg said...

I didn't read all 127 posts here. So, just in case...

According to Tom O'Neil in "The Envelope," "Atonement" was a late-year entry. Screeners were sent out very late. "Sweeney Todd" and "Charlie Wilson's War," two other late-year entries, had no screeners.

That situation will be different come Oscar time -- and that should make a difference in terms of who gets nominated.

Air said...

I just don't understand why McAvoy's chances at a nom keep dwindling every day. It baffles me.

Anonymous said...

A total f-u to Atonement.

A terrible actress like Knightley landing one lead role right after another......sign of the times indeed. >_>

Speaking of the movie, I'd say it's about as impressive as this here Ronan:


Kamikaze Camel said...

Nice to know the Keira haters are still going about their merry biased ways.

Anonymous said...

Finally saw Atonement on Christmas Eve in LA and must admit that I loved it. I've read the novel and was still devastated by the ending. I haven't seen all the contenders so I'm not ready to say Atonement should win a pile of oscars but I really hope that the inevitable "backlash" doesn't keep it from being nominated. Seeing the film was a great moviegoing experience and I continue to be haunted by it. I love this film and applaud everyone involved.

Anonymous said...

Finally saw Atonement on Christmas Eve in LA and must admit that I loved it. I've read the novel and was still devastated by the ending. I haven't seen all the contenders so I'm not ready to say Atonement should win a pile of oscars but I really hope that the inevitable "backlash" doesn't keep it from being nominated. Seeing the film was a great moviegoing experience and I continue to be haunted by it. I love this film and applaud everyone involved.

Anonymous said...

Finally saw Atonement on Christmas Eve in LA and must admit that I loved it. I've read the novel and was still devastated by the ending. I haven't seen all the contenders so I'm not ready to say Atonement should win a pile of oscars but I really hope that the inevitable "backlash" doesn't keep it from being nominated. Seeing the film was a great moviegoing experience and I continue to be haunted by it. I love this film and applaud everyone involved.