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I think Into the Wild will find Oscar love...Jennifer Jason Leigh, I hate to say will not make the cut ( she should be in )Max Von Sydow has good chance with Oscar
I.E. All the ones who actually deserved the damn noms.The Great Debaters? Seriously? And 'Eastern Promises' got Best Pic love?
I seriously can't believe 'Into the Wild' got snubbed THAT badly.
I don't place too much importance on the Globe Nods. In the end AMPAS still does what AMPAS wants.
I didn't think Kelly Mcdonald was that good in No Country, but maybe that's just me.I don't think Jennifer Jason Leigh will make it either.
Beau- Have you seen The Great Debaters? That was the same reaction people had to the Bucket List being Recognized by the NBR. I'm like have you guys even seen these films?Anyway I'm more surprised at Across the Universe which got no pre-recognition AT ALL. THe Great Debaters did.I didn't care for Into the Wild so.
I'm sorry for Kidman; Actress in a Comedy or Musical was very crowded, but at least they could consider her as best supporting for "the golden compass". Mirko S.
I think that we should be able to count out Jennifer Garner at this point (I mean, if the Globes won't nominate her, who will?). Ruby Dee seems the most likely to land a nod amongst the SAG Awards (legendary character actor-who wouldn't want to support her?), and that may lead to her sneaking in at the Oscars, though I suspect it will be MacDonald.Holbrook, von Sydow, Redgrave, and Jason Leigh all lost an incredible amount of steam today. Linney is probably, sniff, out of the race now.
I think the most vulnerable from that list are:- Jennifer Jason Leigh- Ruby Dee- Max von Sydow- Jennifer GarnerBut that doesn't necessarily mean they're totally out of it, either. The others I think still have a decent chance of making a comeback. But we'll see. I have my fingers crossed for MacDonald in particular.
Poor Nic. Poor Laura. And poor poor JJL.I luvs them all, but I think they are out.
To be honest the only awards I take seriously are the Screen Actor Guild Award. Screw the Globes& Oscar. I rarely agree with any of their choices.
I think Hal Holbrook will still make it onto Oscar's shortlist. I mean, come on, Travolta, puh-lease. (Now watch Travolta make it - the opposite happens everytime I make a pronouncement this season: I said Knightley will win, then Linney will win, now both are fighting for 5th spot.)Into the Wild will also be able to pick up a few Oscar nominations but probably (and unfortunately) not a Best Picture nod, nor Best Actor for Hirsch - such a crowded category (which category isn't crowded this year?!).Ruby Dee, Catherine Keener and Vanessa Redgrave are (again, unfortunately) vulnerable, only because their category is crowded and there are already 4 locks for it (Ryan, Blanchett, Swinton and Ronan) and countless others battling for 5th spot.Garner, Kidman x2, Leigh, Macdonald and von Sydow were never really in the race and don't think any of them can stage a comeback at the SAGs.Anderson can still join Coens, Wright, Schnabel and Burton, seeing as Ridley Scott probably won't make the final cut.
Nicole Kidman should have been nominated for "Margot at the Wedding". Her work in "The Golden Compass" was also stunning; how could they forget one of their very favorites?
Congrats to all the nominees. Receiving a nomination from the Golden Globes is a great honor. Even if they don't get an Oscar nod.As for the snubs, the Oscar nominations aren't announced until January. We'll see then.
I wasn't actually that impressed by Kidman in The Golden Compass. And she's my favourite actress of the decade. I mean she was perfect for the role but hardly stretching - when I compare it to her work in To Die For, Moulin Rouge!, The Others, Cold Mountain, Birth, Dogville and even Fur, it doesn't seem that great. I know that sounds oxymoronic but it's how I feel! She certainly shouldn't make it in Supporting Actress this year what with all the other great work. Haven't seen Margot yet so can't comment on that.
amir --i hear you but HOW has Max von Sydow not been in this race. How do you start off with goodwill from being a legend, add in a great performance, add in that it's in a film that's emotionall moving that connects with voters in a bunch of other ways.i don't get it...this lack of traction. it's an awards season mystery to me.but then the globes ignored the other old weeping man that has oscar buzz too so maybe they just didnt' care about the older men this year
I think the most likely to be able to make it to Oscar are Linney, Redgrave, McDonald, Holbrook and Von Sydow.The thing about Oscar is they are very sentimental, career nominations happen more often than not.The biggest loss of steam is Langella for "Starting Out in the Evening". His steam was picking up dramatically, and now he hits a bump in the road.
Only the Golden Globes noms could eclipse the blogbait that the first preview for "Mama Mia" hit the web today. I know that theater purists get riled up about this one, but as a movie it looks incredibly fun and harmless. Not to mention Meryl looks like she's having a blast and, on the snippet of the title song, she sounds a little like - dare I say it? - Cher.
Can't yet qualitatively comment on Von Sydow having not yet seen Diving Bell. But from what you say about him (Holbrook-esque in quality, size and emotional impact) plus the fact that I really admire his work with Bergman, I think I'm going to love the performance.But yeah, if it the work is that good, his tractionlessness is quite strange seeing as Diving Bell is a Picture and Director sure thing (whereas Into the Wild isn't and Holbrook is more secure). Maybe it's a foreign performance thing??
i wouldn't call DIVING BELL a pic/dir sure thing yet. all in all it's still a foreign language film and its competitionAMERICAN GANGSTERATONEMENTINTO THE WILDNO COUNTRYSWEENEY TODDTHERE WILL BE BLOODand to a lesser extentJUNOTHE KITE RUNNERhave all been doing decently in the precursors too, haven't they?plus its lead performance has no traction either so maybe the actors won't bite?
yeah it definitely has something to do with the foreign thing (re: von Sydow) supporting perfs in foreigen language films just NEVER sem to be able to gain any traction. just see last year for proof: Carmen Maura. got nothing anywhere
Pfeiffer should have for Hairspray.
Redgrave and Linney snubs were atrocious.So were Nikki Blonski and Ridley Scott nods.
The only snub that's really irritating is Hal Holbrook's snub. It seems like they didn't dig "Into the Wild" at all, which is their choice, but still. I'm not too worried about Paul Thomas Anderson -- the word "masterpiece" has been thrown around too much about "There Will Be Blood" for him to be totally shutout. And even if he doesn't make it to the Oscars in director, there's always adapted screenplay.Vanessa Redgrave, Ruby Dee, and Jennifer Jason Leigh still have shots to make it in I think. Laura Linney's really struggling right now -- no ISA nod when that should have been a given, no critics love (yet), and now the Globes snub. At this rate, she might end up as a season-long also ran (I still think that "The Savages" best shot is in original screenplay only). I don't think that Jennifer Garner, Max von Sydow, Emile Hirsch, Nicole Kidman, etc. ever had a shot at the Oscars anyway.It's neat how films like "Eastern Promises" and "The Great Debaters" are throwing wrenches into people's predictions so far. There needs to be a shakeup in the BP race, and films like that could be the ticket.
I am surprised that Blonsky snuck in over Kidman and Linney. Wow. But I guess I always worried for Linney, and Kidman's film was not well received. Clearly the musical card trumps the Kidman card.I am NOT surprised that the old men didn't make it. The globes have always favored the new stars more than the old men.And I'm SO pissed about Across the Universe getting in over Once. Why did you not count Once among the snubbed, Nathaniel??? Did you notice that they didn't even nom in for song??? WTF!?!?Alright, end of rant. But come on.And 5 noms for Charlie? Ridiculous. I hope it's the globe comedy version of Cold Mountain.
I think what's hurting Max von Sydow is being foreign. That's trumping everything else in his favor, including his prior nod. There's easier fare to nominate, he's old, there's more buzzed about people in the running, and the role might not be enough to get in over baitier contenders. I didn't think that Kelly MacDonald has a shot this year in supporting actress against her competition, not even a chance enough to ride the coattails of a probable BP nominee (and very possible winner for that matter).
Aw, Langella was never going to get any love from the Globes. Movie too small, not a "star," etc. I'm hoping the SAG will take notice of him.If Oscar is going to nominate one "old man" for Best Supp Actor, I put my $ on Holbrook rather than von Sydow, much as I love the latter.JJL still has a shot, though a long one. Possibly a better one than Kidman.Into the Wild's still in the running for the Oscars, IMO, though I think Hirsch is out of it.
I hope TWBB and Anderson will find love at the Oscars
Was "Once" campaigned for in foreign film? Don't the Globes have an odd rule about foreign film contenders not being eligible in the acting categories? Still, that wouldn't explain the snub for "Falling Slowly" in song though. :(
foreign films are ineligible for the BEST PICTURE and BEST ANIMATED FEATURE categories but they are eliglible everywhere else including acting (see COTILLARD and directing see SCHNABEL)
Adam, let's just hope it IS Charlie Wilson that's this year's Cold Mountain (lots of globe love but cool response from Oscar) and not Atonement. Cold Mountain also lead the pack at the Globes in its year like Atonement, and is very Atonement-y in its love/war/Odyssey elements.Still think Linney's gonna do a Watts and take that 5th slot at the Oscars without any prior citations. They do like her and this year's race is very reminiscent of 2003 in all categories (although MUCH more quality this year).
I've noticed that the Globes don't go for the micro-supporting nom as often. They didn't go for Alan Alda for "Aviator" or William Hurt for "History of Violence." They also wouldn't give Dame Judi the win for "Shakespeare." They thankfully didn't buy Ellen Burstyn for "Mrs. Harris" either, ha ha. Maybe that's why Holbrook, von Sydow, Dee, and Redgrave all got shut out here.
I don't think most of these journalists watch the films. I think they just go to parties and worship stars. If the WGA strike is still on, they may not have a show. Who would watch a Globes show without the stars showing up?
I think the potential of SAG love for Into the Wild and Linney keep them in the mix. Possibly also for Ruby Dee, as noted above.On a purely sentimental level, I will be simply giddy if Holbrook and Dee snag noms.My feeling about Supporting Actress right now is that Swinton and Ryan are near-locks for Oscar, with Blanchett and Ronan being right there as well but a teensy bit more vulnerable to shifts in voter mood (Cate fatigue or a cooling for Atonement.) I also suspect Julia's the Supporting Actress "coaster" in this field. "Coaster" is my name for that eligible, entirely decent performance that happens to in the "it" film catching the wave of goodwill at voting time. And I think Julia's slot'll remain the "coaster" slot...which might bode well for Garner if Juno becomes this year's Little Miss Sunshine.
I'm glad that Ruby Dee and Vanessa Redgrave didn't make the cut, nor do I see their lack of noms as sunbs. While I think their contributions to their respecive films were fine and solid, neither really wowed me dramatically. Hopefully the Academy will follow suit, but one of them will probably sneak in...I detest their insistance on honoring veterans for unworthy roles (i.e. Bill Hurt in '05, and Arkin in '06). As for Jennifer Garner? No comment.
The snubbing of Once and Into the Wild really steamed me. Not even in best song for Once? No Halbrook?
i happen to think William Hurt fully deserved that nod in 05. and in general I much prefer "career honors" to "coasters" as Stinky described when it comes to nominations. I didn't think Ruby Dee was awards calibre but a nomination for her would be SO much better than a nomination for Julia Roberts for her stiff "i'm back!" work in Charlie Wilson's War
into the wild got snubbed the worst. the golden globes are officially unworthy.
The lack of love for the Diviing Bell actors is puzzling me. How can critics/voters love the film so much but not the performances? The performances gave the film heart. I don't get it? :(
Flabbergasted Jennifer Lopez was passed over in 'El Cantante'. I thought for sure she was a shoo-in.Dual albums in two languages, mega tour with husband, humble American Idol guest mentoring, risk taking DWTS performance on a high platform, discrete pregnancy, twins... what more do they want from her in a year?!
Maybe that she works in a better film? :-)Mirko S.
anonymous --i assume that the lack of love for DIVING BELL performances is due to the foreign language factor (the only explanation I can think of) and the problem of Amalric's facial immobility. He's good in the film but in truth the star is Julian Schnabel... so in a way it makes sense.Unfortunately, we see here ample evidence of both foreign film bias AND the problem of judging/boosting supporting performances if they're attached to a lead performance with traction. Because there is no way in hell that if that movie was english language and Johnny Depp was the star (as originally planned) that Max von Sydow wouldn't be getting attention. even if the performances were exactly the same qualitatively
Don't really mind Redgrave's snub...
it is a micro performance, yes. but then so is Holbrook's and von Sydow's and even Knightley's (if you consider that she's a "lead")
Adam, considering Cold Mountain ended up with a swag of Oscar nods and even won one I think hoping Charlie Wilson's War is the next Cold Mountain is a scary thought (can CWW go away please? It's like it was made in a weird 1990s timewarp, right?).But - and this may be shocking - maybe, just maybe, the HFPA didn't actually like Once or Into the Wild. Personally, I didn't care for either so it's not unheard of. Although I had predicted a Penn nomination in director I actually figured it would miss best picture and that both Hirsch and Holbrook would miss out too. It was not a Golden Globe kind of movie. I'm certain it'll bounce back with the Academy though (well, I don't think Hirsch has a chance, but Penn and Holbrook certainly do).I mean, they didn't care for Crash either...
I can't wait to see "Charlie Wilson's War", so I don't think the hate is warranted for their Globes nods (but I'll admit to being a Sorkin junkie too, so there's that). And it's JULIA! Even if it is a "coaster" nomination, I'm glad to see her back in the mix again, and hopefully in some big roles again.I thought that Hal Holbrook had a solid supporting reel in terms of screentime. That shouldn't be compared to Vanessa Redgrave or Ruby Dee. He came in very late into the film, but he more than made his impression felt once he arrived. I'd love more than anything to see him net his first Oscar nomination. The Globes slight was a tough blow, but I think that SAGs will rectify that next week. (Hope so anyway).
Are SAGs next week already? Jesus.I think I predicted some shutouts for Into the Wild I don't remember. I never even considered predicting Hirsch. Never thought Holbrook would make it either. But I went back and forth on Penn and the film... cause they do love Sean Penn.
The GG's mean nothing for INTO THE WILD's success at the Oscars. The movie will still get in. The HFPA clearly are making the same mistake they made with CRASH last year, underestimating the power of a great American film. INTO THE WILD will succeed with a larger group of voters like AMPAS, easily.
I think Kelly Macdonald gets a SAG nomination and an Oscar nomination. She was incredible in the movie. Because of the Texas accent I had no idea who was playing the part till the end credits. I think she is at an advantage at the SAG and Oscars. Because actors vote for the SAG's and the Oscar nominations I think they will recognize how difficult her performance was with the flawless accent and how she really inhabits that character.
It is completely ridiculous that ( yet again ) Jennifer Jason Leigh has been ignored for ' Margot ' . For the last 25 years she has given some of the edgiest performances of any actor OR actress in mainstream- 'Indy' films. Can anyone tell me WHY she is ALWAYS shunned ?! She has certainly proven herself more than half of the actress' nominated or even buzzed about this year.And what the hell about Christian Bale or Edward Norton ... both gave great perfs in 2007, and yet people seem to keep igoring the real deals for the media darlings.
Is it me, or does anyone think "Into The Wild" got snubbed in the Original Score category? I thought Vedder's score to be superb and befitting. The Academy is truly a backward bunch."Juno" does not deserve any of the nominations it received, nor did it deserve to win Best Screenplay. It is, by far, the most overrated piece of crap ever to be nominated for an Oscar, and no one is going to convince me otherwise. There were far better films that deserved nominations, namely "Into The Wild."
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