I'm getting impatient. How about you?
(Oscar Prediction updates and more coming September 20th)
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Saturday, September 13, 2008
It's Almost On
I'm getting impatient. How about you?
(Oscar Prediction updates and more coming September 20th)
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41 comments:
I've already seen Blindness, re-cut and re-edited. Julianne Moore is superb, but too subtle for Oscar. I'll root for hey, anyway.
- cal roth
Best Actress has always been my favorite category. I'm pumped about this year!
Right now, I'm feelin' it for...
Hathaway
Hawkins
Jolie
Streep
Winslet
...but we'll see just how well the indie women catch on.
I have very little faith in Kidman for some reason.
I think Winslet will win.
Could Keira Knightley be in contention again?... haha.
I've just read that The Young Victoria is being released at London on march 6 2009. I'd love to see Emily Blunt nominated as best actrees, but with this is very unlikely.
On the other hand the also european film The Last Station is getting ready to a late release this year. This film has been very out of the radar just yet. It's about Leo Tolstoi, with performances of Christopher Plummer, Helen Mirren and James McAvoy. So, it could be Mirren's comeback and Plummer's and McAvoy's revenge at the Oscars.
i did a post on THE LAST STATION early in the summer (here) but it's so weird that The Young Victoria is still not coming out.
there are some possible BEST ACTRESS players not in this photo op above of course. BECKINSALE, OKONEDO, ETCETERA but so much depends on what films get released and when.
I really hope Kidman makes it to the short list. She has been ignored far too long. And I have to say, I liked Fur.
Jim
Its sad the that only non-caucasian with a chance is Sophie O. in Skin. This just shows the lack of good roles for minorities.
I must confess, i didn't read much on june... but i was allready aware of the film (the last station)..hih.
Hopefully The Young victoria could get a limited release at list, but who knows.
I think that Streep, Jolie and Winslet mus get nominated, but there are so many worthy women to nominate this time.. hihi...
Hey Nath, here is a link of an interview given by the author of the Last Station, Jay Parini.. He says that it would be release this year.
http://thescotsman.scotsman.com/features/Tolstoy-and-me--The.4415459.jp
I'm feeling:
Streep (perennial nominee)
Winslet (ditto - could she finally win?)
Hawkins (lighter fare, less depressing than everything else out there)
Hathaway (embracing New Hollywood)
& Kidman (will the shower Baz and Nic with love again?)
But then Jolie's starpower, Moore's pedigree, Leo's buzz and Scott-Thomas' turn might edge them into the competition. Thankfully, I'm glad that it doesn't look as deadlocked a category as in the past couple of years - yay!
Among these, I've only seen Hawkins in Happy-Go-Lucky and to use film experience terms:
Movie: B
Sally: B+
The movie did have several good supporting performances especially Karina Fernandez as the Flamenco teacher.
"My SPACE!"
i liked hawkins it's a bit like ellen page last year in juno you either love it or hate it she might win the globe over hathaway.
i see diane lane is in your pic but no drew have you lost faith in her nat.
my picks as of today
winslet
hawkins
knightley
jolie
hathaway
i have lost faith in doubt's meryl streep it pains me to say this could be one year when she is nommed and i leaqve her out as i did in 81,87,90 and 99.
Well, I heard that Shohreh Aghdasloo is Stoning of Soraya M. So that could be another performance that comes out of nowhere. My Top 5:
Winslet
Streep
Jolie
Hawkins
Hathaway
Kidman is #6. 7-10 are Julianne Moore, Kristin Scott Thomas, Dakota Fanning, Melissa Leo.
Winslet will win and sweep most award shows, but Hathaway will win the GG Comedy.
I have no idea how it's all going to work out, but I'm just gonna give what I hope will be the top five:
Kristin Scott Thomas, I've Loved You So Long
Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky
Diane Lane, Nights in Rodanthe
That isn't to hate on Streep, who of course is a legend (but honestly hasn't WOWED me since Angels in America. Loved her in Prada, don't misunderstand, but you EXPECT greatness from her. Anything else over that is remarkable work, and Angels was the last thing that did that for me...) or Jolie (whose pitch and tone in 'Changling's trailer is remarkable) or Moore (who finally gets a juicy role for once, better than anything she's had in a while sans 'Savage Grace') OR Nicky (who is still one of my favorite actresses from the last twenty years).
I love them all, and would be more than happy to see them all receive nods for their respective work.
But those actresses listed above would make my heart leap for joy if they give a perf as promising as what's offered in the trailer and receive recognition for it.
KST - hard working actress, been without a strong role for a dog's age and remains (for me) alongside the best Brits in the biz (Thompson, Wilkinson, Swinton, McKellen, etc). Role looks meaty, trailer is devastating, and her eyes are particularly striking in every shot, almost like they've been dead for years. She's done her homework.
*Bonus points: Gives 'Other Boleyn Girl' the only bitch slap, when there should've been cat fights abound between ScarJo and Portman. We bow.
Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married - for earning a substantial role in an indie where it doesn't feel like she's trying too hard *coughHavoccough* Even from the trailer, comedic timing is perfect, angst is palpable but not overwhelming, and you can feel the damage done to this woman pour out of her. Based off of first impression, I'm in love.
*Bonus points: For maintaining a strength and intelligence in choosing her roles, remaining low-profile in public except for that business regarding her ex, and for that phone call in 'Brokeback'. <3
Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky - for making a character who on paper seems as though she couldn't be made into anything more than a caricature and, based off that two-minute preview, giving her a heart and soul and humanity that looks inspiring.
*Bonus points: That awkward flamenco stance. Makes me giggle with glee EVERY TIME.
Diane Lane, Nights in Rodanthe - no, I don't like Nicholas Sparks. I'm fine with Gere, but have never seen anything of his that bowled me over. The only reason I'm seeing this flick, the only reason I have any hope invested in it, is because of her. She's the sort of actress who can take what might be drivel on the page and translate it to the screen with a gravity and a truth that other, less capable actresses might have left at the door. Looks to elevate this material by leaps and bounds.
*Bonus points: 'Unfaithful.' 'Nuff said.
Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road - the most talented actress of her generation re-teaming with one of its best actors, reigniting a heat that eleven years later looks as scorching as it did in 1999. She can do no wrong, imho.
*Bonus points: She's Kate Winslet. She IS bonus points.
Or 1997, rather.
DAMMIT, why do I NEVER proof these things before publishing????
*puts finger to head and goes 'click click boom'
For whatever reason, I'm not particularly excited for this year. Oscars schmoscars.
Maybe it's because 07 delivered so well.
It always amuses me when people talk about "weak years" in certain categories, yet they don't remember that almost any year will have a whole tonne of anticipated product that make people sit up and say "it's going to be a great year!" We can be guaranteed that five of these performances won't be heard of outside of maybe the ISAs or the odd critics award. And if Winslet and/or Streep's films disappoint then anything could happen.
Having said that, I love this time of the year when there's so many titles that look so good just on the horizon.
Winslet
Jolie
Hathaway
Kidman
Streep
Why is no one predicting love for Kidman? Australia will most likely be front-runner in most categories, and the Academy loves the lead actress in a romantic epic...
Hawkins in Happy Go Lucky is too divisive, and the movie won't be big enough to overcome that.
Streep gets in because of older voters, and because she's Streep.
Knightley doesn't stand a chance, not in a year when there's more than four other female leads in other movies.
Scott-Thomas, Leo, Moore, Okonedo, will be handicapped by their movies not being seen.
And my money's on Winslet to win. It's her year, goddamit.( And she should have won for Clementine.)
glenn
Was that comment directed towards me? My disinterest isn't due to lack of competition, just the lack of things to get excited about. I don't care if the media starts gushing over a dozen new Blood Diamonds come December, it's still just the same ol' circus.
I think you can scratch Knightley from the list.
She would need to be spectacular in The Duchess to overcome the film's lukewarm response. As it is, she does a perfectly respectable job, but the role is so thinly written, so reactive, that she has little room for manoeuvre.
We're looking at one of the strongest fields in this category in some time, I think. I would love to see Hawkins, Scott Thomas and Leo make the cut.
But Angelina Jolie? Wasn't one Oscar enough?
Wow. My March Best Actress predictions have held up really well. I had:
Blanchett
Streep
Hathaway
Jolie
Winslet
I mean, I don't see Blanchett as having much of a chance at all anymore but the other four seem to be going strong.
Now I've subbed Hawkins for Blanchett. That seems to be a popular lineup.
It worries me that there is a near unanimous opinion on the 5 nominess for best actress. I hope(I'm sure) it will change, especially since the majority of the these films have n't been released yet.
Michelle Williams for Wendy & Lucy!!!
anon --you're so right. unanimous opinions early in the year are almost always because we haven't seen anything yet. of course it gets unanimous later on too when the precursors all start convincing everyone that it's down to 6 people ;)
tt --i hope wendy & lucy comes out this year. i really want to see it but sadly it's only got 1 press screening for NYFF and it's before i get back from DC. grrrrr
Well, altough I have Jolie, Streep and Winslet in my March predictions, I now think one of them will fall... I really don't think the 3 of them will make the cut for some reason...
and my other 2 (Delpy and Weaver), well... ;)
I'm gonna sound very boring and go:
Hathway
Hawkins
Jolie
Streep
Winslet
:D
Oh! and The Reader is getting a 2008N Release! Just so everyone remembers that during their predictions...
Bernardo, how do tou know and, shouldn't there be a trailer by now?
Jim
Bernardo, don't be so sure about The Reader being released this year, Baz Bamingboye of The Daily Mail (a reliable source) seems to think it will be coming out in 2009, since Stephen Daldry will be prepping the Billy Elliott musical on Broadway for the next few months.
Oh, what the hell...
Sally Hawkins
Melissa Leo
Kristin Scott Thomas
Meryl Streep
Kate Winslet
The heart wants what it wants.
My predictions:
The Top Five:
1. Kate Winslet, The Reader: If that's true about "The Reader" release, this is her Oscarish role for Winslet and not Revolutionary Road.
2. Meryl Streep, Doubt: She's just meryl, the American Queen of Cinema, but maybe until August: OSage County...
3. Angelina Jolie, Changeling: I love the trailer and she looks fantastic. Finally she took the right way.
4. Melissa Leo, Frozen River: Maybe is just my wishful thinking, but she's marvelous and she deserves that Oscar Nomination. Plus: It's more easy indie films gets Oscar Nominations in Women instead Men.
5. Anne Hathaway, Rachel getting MArried: The Newcomer of the year. She's a young, talented, pretty and american actress.
Alternative: Kristin Scott Thomas, I've Loved you So Long: Maybe the language of the film hurt her chances but she has a real opportunity for being the "surprise" of the year.
Surprise: Sophie Okonedo, Skin: Three reasons:
*She plays a real character. Plus: She's a victim for Apartheid system
*British and Minority spot
*Good reviews for her performance in Toronto beside the film.
Only we still to know if the real release of the film is in October 3 of this year
Streep
Winslet
Kidman
Hathaway
Hawkins
I think many of the early praised actresses (Leo, Thomas, etc) will be forgotten about once the more heavy-hitters come out (it seems many of the BP nominees have a strong actress role). I hope this will be Kidman's comeback year - early word is that Jackman is phenomenal, though. Which is amazing because I would love for him to get some dues...
Mikadzuki, definitely not. It was at the people who claim "so and so deserves the Oscar" before they've even seen the movies and then by the time the actual awards come around they've realised that no matter how many high profile/overdue contenders there are early in the season there generally tends to only be about 8 or less who have a legitimate shot at a nomination.
I'm fairly certain we'll be axing Knightley, Moore, Theron, Lane and Beckinsale and at least one of Streep/Winslet/Jolie.
No matter how many great contenders there actually are, whether it's a "strong year" or a "weak year" there's never really that many options to choose from when it comes to the Academy. Unless it's 2003 and they just went crazy bananas.
I think you can scratch Knightley from the list.
She would need to be spectacular in The Duchess to overcome the film's lukewarm response. As it is, she does a perfectly respectable job, but the role is so thinly written, so reactive, that she has little room for manoeuvre.
We're looking at one of the strongest fields in this category in some time, I think. I would love to see Hawkins, Scott Thomas and Leo make the cut.
But Angelina Jolie? Wasn't one Oscar enough?
-------------------
Jolie was Oscar wothy in A Mighty Heart, Playing By Heart, Gia, and George Wallace.
I agree she was very good in Gia -- she was nominated for an Emmy for that, right? I disagree on the other three.
But that's not really the point I'm making. I know she has some talent. But unless she does truly transcendent work in Changeling -- and maybe she does -- I don't think she's really earned entry into the two-time-winner club. (Of course, neither had Hilary Swank, but, well...)
To put things in perspective, that would make her equal to Meryl Streep in terms of wins. There are other actresses I'd like to see rewarded first.
//To put things in perspective, that would make her equal to Meryl Streep in terms of wins. There are other actresses I'd like to see rewarded first.//
But alas, what we'd LIKE to be and what WILL be are obviously two different things. Alas.
i'm with Guy on this. I think Jolie is a FANTASTIC movie star. She really livens up movies and she has inarguable presence. But as far as the quality of her acting goes, she's talented but the roles haven't always demanded very much of her.
she was terrific in Gia (Emmy nod) and moving in Playing by Heart I agree... but i think one Oscar is plenty for now ;) unless she's the best this year of course.
time will tell.
i'm obsessed with # of oscars too but it's really silly to be. I'm silly! because honestly... most of the two oscar winners aren't any better than the one oscared people in terms of quality. They're just luckier with timing.
Quite so, Nat.
In any case, for us silly geeks who do play the numbers game, I think the number of nominations is a better yardstick than the number of wins.
I'd be surprised, for example, to see Hilary Swank notch up her 15th nomination in a few decades' time.
(I should explain, at the risk of Nat forever barring me from his blog, that I don't actually hate Swank, and think she was legitimately great in Boys Don't Cry. But it's hard to swallow that she's a double Oscar champ.)
I absolutely agree with guy. Number of nominations seems a lot more important to me as well. Just look who have been nominated the most. Streep, Olivier, Dench, Redgrave, Brando and Winslet (i mean considering her age). (Well, a not very accurate list i know, just my picks). Two more examples are O'Toole (he doesn't need a win to prove his ability) and Jolie having won as oppossed to Winslet. Who is better, really?
Jim
@ Nat
I agree with you on Jolie. She has presence, I can't think of someone more charismatic, but sometimes she relies too much on her charisma and takes the wrong parts.
But she's very good in George Wallace (great accent), Foxfire, Playing and unforgettable in Gia, Girl, A might heart.
She even steals the show in Alexander in a Uma-Thurman-in-Batman-and-Robin-kind of way lol
'... most of the two oscar winners aren't any better than the one oscared people in terms of quality. They're just luckier with timing.'
Nathaniel,
One example I bet you 're thinking of is Hilary Swank??
who ?
;)
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