I haven't worked out exactly what I'm doing technically with the site/blog fusion and whatnot... so we may have a Re-Opening Redux coming your way (hey, if Wong Kar Wai and Francis Coppola can do it...) but for now, past years of Oscar coverage are back up along with the popular Film Bitch Awards (aka my ballot, if I had one, plus a gajillion extra categories) ... basically everything is back up, glitches and all*
NOW: new Oscar Predictions & commentary in all categories.
NEXT! More silliness with a side of seriosity ... i.e. the return of most of the regular TFE series you know & love, old and new obsessions --we're just not sure what they are just yet, regular experimentation and flashbacks to years past including a little bit o' 1968.
* Hey, I don't have a team of paid employees. It's just me & my computer, nitpickers.
Posts
33 comments:
You should change Slumdog Millionarie screenplay from original to adapted because is based in the book Q&A by Vikas Swarup.
good to know. i shoulda double checked that. i wish IMDB would reflect these things accurately...
your supp actress pics have the same comment for winger and tomei.
I think you might regret not putting Elizabeth Banks higher for Supporting Actress...
i might.
but then i might regret a lot of things ;) it's still early. So basically any combo of the top 15 there I see as plausible... and she's one of them.
that film though. as i say on the best pic page "This is either a bullseye or a zero nominations thing"
dont you agree?
I think you should consider the boy in the stiped pyjamas for a few awards especially best actor and actress for david thewlis an vera farmiga. It just got realised in the uk and ireland and its getting very strong reviews plus its based on an aclaimed novel PLUS its about the holocaust!
ahem *striped
A few notes:
In supporting actor, you don't even include 3 of the hottest rising prospects right now. Adam McKay is getting RAVE reviews for Me and Orson Welles, I mean raves, the kid is at least in play. Also, Peter O'Toole is doing the same for Dean Spanley. Also, John Malkovich seems to have more of a shot for Changeling than Burn After Reading at this point. Not saying they'll get in but they sure have a better chance than a lot in your top 25. In fact, I actually predict McKay and O'Toole.
Also, between lead supporting, all indications I've seen is that they're planning to push Hoffman supporting for Doubt, due to his also having a lead turn they want to push in Synechdoche, his reviews are rather fantastic. Also, for some odd reason, everyone I've talked to about it in the know insists the Frost/Nixon people are planning to push Sheen lead. Seems like a mistake, though it'd be nice to see one campaign run with some integrity.
You seem to be sleeping on Martin Landau in Lovely, Still a bit. I mean, by no means likely as he doesn't even have a distributor yet, but really, he's gotten every bit as good of reviews, if not better, than Burstyn and she's in your top 15. Certainly a better shot than the mediocrely reviewed Miracle at St Anna star, as much as I like Derek Luke.
Oh and in lead, one dark horse to consider, Jeff Goldblum in Adam Ressurected, the film hasn't gotten raves, very mixed reviews, but he's gotten probably the best reviews of anyone all year. A good campaign could push him into things.
The title of the new Ridley Scott movie is "House of Lies" or "Body of Lies"?? I ask this, because, on your predictions, you mention both titles.
kamila it's BODY OF LIES. sorry. working out a lot of kinks on these pages. (the film was briefly retitled)
Bing -thanks for the notes. I knew I'd forget a few festival people --some of these i'll squeeze in but some, without distributors I don't necessarily think I should bother yet. at this point without a distributor most of these festival titles are going to 2009.
sean d i'm seeing that real soon. thanks for the reminder.
I'm also seeing CHANGELING, WRESTLER, and RACHEL in the week or so. It's getting SOOOoooooooo exciting... although I still wonder why EVERYTHING must be crammed into 3 months of the year.
Hi Nat -- India's official entry is "Taare Zameen Par" -- Lagaan star Aamir Khan's directorial debut.
It is the story of a dyslexic kid being helped by his school teacher -- probably not the newest subject for Oscar. It was well-acclaimed upon its release last year -- and won several awards here in India -- though I'm not sure if it has any shot at making it to the shortlist.
i agree 100% with your top six actresses and think (unless kidman and okonedo are fantastic) that it will be between them. Everyone else is already out of the game in my mind.
The only question is which one of those six will be the snub?
Oh, yay! I've waited so long for those previous year pages. The final prediction listings are so helpful when I'm making my own lineups
Ponyo is confirmed for an '09 US release, and the only thing I could see changing that would be if Japan decides to submit it for Best Foreign Film, in which it'd be in play this year, though given how both Mononoke and Persepolis were snubbed in that category in the past, that wouldn't be worth it really.
Meanwhile, IFC is releasing Fears of the Dark for the animated category. It looks really good IMO.
What fun it is to be finally getting to where we'll actually be SEEING the movies we've been waiting for.
I'm wondering whether Tea Leoni might be a possible nom in the Best Supporting race. I was surprised in the Ghost Town reviews by the enthusiastic following she seems to have among influential critics as a skilled comedienne. I could see a Golden Globe comedy nomination for her, and if she's actually supporting in the film, maybe an Oscar possibility. Isn't she just what Oscar likes to reward? Someone who's been toiling in Hollywood for years? One of their own makes good, in a film that makes people laugh?
philippines' entry is "Ploning" starring Judy Ann Santos, Gina Pareno, Mylene Dizon etc.
Part of me thinks you might be overlooking The Road a bit -- but this seems to be the case with most people's predictions. As the Academy inches closer and closer toward darker fare -- look at the past two Best Picture winners, for goodness sakes! -- I think we should begin expecting that ever-darkening horse to steal some other film's thunder and electrify the Academy in a way that nobody quite suspects. I sincerely believe that this will be the film that many critics will latch on to as this year's examples of the Academy's shifting sensibilities; this time, however, some of us won't be so "aw, shucks, that was an out-of-the-left-field choice!" It happened with NCFOM and TWBB, so I don't see why lightning can't strike twice.
(Though, if I recall, there's a minor character in the novel who actually dies from being struck by lightning... so maybe I should reevaluate that comment.)
chuck i hear you on their darkening tastes but having read THE ROAD i just felt like... how is this not a totally offputting art film?
I mean it's heinous... every moment of it (brilliant but just sick if you really stop to think about what a movie would be SHOWING you...
i guess that's my hangup with it as a film.
but my god the book is great
Yeah... I don't really have anything to add. Good job! Although there are mistakes on the costume design page especially (descriptions for positions one, two and three don't match to the pictures) and a few others that I'll let you find yourself (because I'm going to see WallE now and don't have time).
Scenes from The Road were actually filmed at my school's outdoor center in Raccoon Creek State Park, PA.
Rosemarie DeWitt is much better than Winger in Rachel Getting Married. I saw the movie and have to saythat Winger is very good, but DeWitt is on par with Hathaway (Who is a knockout...) and the movie is based around her wedding. DeWitt also has the "Oscar" scenes she needs to get a nomination. Winger is also playing an unlikeable character. I won't spoil the movie, but Hathaway is another like of unlikeable. Winger can still get a nomination and she is right now in my Top 5, but her nomination would be just becuase "its the return of Debra Winger!" Also, don't be surprised if Bill Irwin gets through. He was fantastic and very memorable...
Expect Actress, Supporting Actress (DeWitt) and Original Screenplay for Rachel Getting Married, all which are very deserved.
Just so you know, your predictions define my life over the next several months as these films start release...
That said, I am soooo excited by this predicted Best Director lineup. That would make it the most exciting set of nominees...ever.
Weirdly, they are all one or two degrees of separation from Nicole Kidman.
Nicole Kidman is the new Kevin Bacon.
Furthermore, as someone who's counting...this seems like a tigher pool than previous years. You're predicting only 26 films in these categories. Assuming 24 total in Doc Feat, Doc Short, Ani Short, LA Short, and Foreign, that's only 50 films. I think the last few years they have been in the high 50s. Not that I mind having to rush out and see fewer films.
But...nothing for The Argentine, nothing for Gran Torino, nothing for St. Anna, Soloist, or The Reader. Very interesting. Of course, I'll still see them just in case...
You've finally gotten me excited about this year.
Also, "I've Loved You..." is missing from the list at the bottom.
27 films. Hamlet 2 is missing from the list at the bottom as well. Do I really have to go see that?
Hey Nat, glad you enjoyed Christmas Tale. I caught it just over a month ago and left the cinema in a daze that still hasn't fully subsided
You should really count out Winger. She's in two scenes and neither are particularly memorable. Rosemarie Dewitt is a much better possibility.
And James Franco has the better shot for Milk in supporting, it turns out.
Sorry for the double post.
anon who has seen MILK that is saying this? I'm curious. I still think on the basis of the roles and what Oscar normally responds to that Brolin is a safer bet.
I like James Franco a lot but bait wise it doesn't seem as likely (to me)
can't wait to see the film
y kant i want to write about it but I always feel coming out of his films like one needs to see them 5 times before fully grasping. He's giving so much. I can't tell if I want him to learn to edit himself or just make his movies 10 hours long each so I have more time to process.
no love for "secret ife of bees"?????
yeah, i can't see them going there unless its stupendously good. it seems so lifetime'ish. or something they might have gone for in the 80s?
I think Nicole Kidman could really get an Oscar as Best Actress for Australia.
For Best Actor I think Sean Penn could win it, but I also think that Hugh Jackman could be nominated.
For the supporting actors I think Heath Ledger could get it or Russell Crowe.
And Best supporting actress I still think of Cate Blanchett.
Best actor is no question for me: Baz Luhrmann.
But I don´t understand why there still is Angelina Jolie as the no. 1 actress in the Best Actress List, as well as Anne Hathaway. :/
Post a Comment