random Oscar thought of the day
If the Best Actress race really narrows down to The Bening (The Kids Are All Right) vs. Natalie Portman (Black Swan) than we have a seriously sapphic situation going on this year.
"♪ I Kissed a Girl just to try it, I know Oscar won't mind it. ♫ "
Hey, it worked last year for the ladies in this category.
P.S. Does this mean that The Oscars are basically like frat parties with a stricter dress code? Maybe they will love The Social Network as much as critics do.
Annette Bening Meryl Streep Sandra Bullock
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36 comments:
Bad for them: as far as I can remember, only three actress who played lesbians / had lesbianism scenes won Best Actress: Theron, Swank and Kidman.
Good for them: three winners in 10 years.
Anyway, I'm not feeling any of them.
Bening is losing steam since everybody seems to favor Moore when the movie is discussed (all that who is supporting talk bended over Moore, after n initial Bening wave).
Portman? This movie is still a big IF. And if you search arthouse + nuts in Best Actress you won't find many winners. Kidman maybe, but The Hours was PRESTIGE arthouse. Maybe Theron, but she won because of her deglam (even though she absolutely earned her Oscar. Her performance aged very very well - I rooted for Keaton and was wrong) and Portman is still very very beautiful. Not at all? It'd be unprecedented?
Call me nuts, but I really see Kidman pulling a Jane Fonda?
One more thing: it's time for another two-time Best Actress winner. The 00's were the first decade ever without such an accomplishment. There's usually one for decade.
90's: Foster
80's: Field
70's: Fonda
60's: Taylor/Hepburn
50's: Leigh/Bergman
40's: Havilland
30's: Rainer
See? It's time.
Now I really can see Kidman winning this. The role is ultra-baity, she produced the movie, it's kind of a comeback (like Fonda and Bergman, she got a huge backlash, and that without cheating on her husband or going commy), people really got enthusiastic about her, she drives her movie and it's supposed to be accessible, not a freak show like Black Swan.
Ok, now I'm sure. She is gonna win. Caleb Roth told you first, don't forget.
Or maybe they'll give Annette Bening two - one in Best Actress in The Kids Are All Right and one in Supporting ( for Mother and Child ).
Not sure if that's even allowed, but hey, there you'd have the two-time winner in the same year ;-)
cal -- you forget about SWANK. who won her second Oscar in 2004. there is one per decade, you're right.
cal -- also i have NO idea where you're getting "everyone favoring Moore"... i haven't seen any trace of that other than random stand-alone people going "i actually loved Moore in that movie" the heat is still totally with Annette.
Cal, you forgot Swank. If Field counts as an 80's double winner and even more so Foster as an 90s one, then Hilary Swank is the 00s girl.
Finally, TKAA is opening here in the UK! At long last.
cal roth - Did you deliberately forget Swank in the 00s? :p
I think Bening will win. 95% sure.
And I don't see how people think Moore was better.
And I love both of them. I'm not a crazy Bening fan or anything. Though I will be once she posts here again. #sheisscary
Nathaniel beat me to it.
Ok, I forgot Swank, but it was noit deliberately, since I love the performance. Now, Kidman can win in the 10's!
Nat, I didn't say Moore got more love than Bening. What I read in every discussion about the possible category fraud, was that Moore was moving the plot and Bening had less screentime and were more passive.
That, somehow, put Bening in an inferior position, "the one that could go supporting", second best, even if her performance is the standout.
But back to my point, stats aside, I still see Kidman as a winner. She and Lawrence were the only ones who got the raves you need to be thr frontrunner in Best Actress. But Lawrence is a newcomer, and Kidman is a star. And when a star get these raves...
Bening? She still have to fight her co-stars to be the standout? She doesn't even have the amount of screentime of her co-lead? It is easier to win when the movie works for you only (see all the last 10 winners except for Witherspoon and Kidman). Oh, and Kidman has to cry for her child and Bening is in a comedy?
CAL -- have you seen THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT? Bening has plenty to do that's clip-ready.
My dream lineup would be:
annette bening
julianne moore
natalie portman
nicole kidman
jennifer lawrence
with leslie manville earning a nod in the supporting category. I don't see any Swank, Lane or Hathaways going on here. Maybe Michelle Williams, but she will have better chances next year.
Annette will win (general feeling is that she is the best in show, so...), but Julianne MUST be nominated anyway with her co-star. It's the only way to reward her, after all those years of stunning performances (and a period under the radar). She was robbed last year and she is more deserving than Bening in terms of movie history and career. Maybe she has not so many friends in Hollywood? Come on, she is one of the greatest living actor in the woooorld!!! If the Academy doesn't reward her with a nomination (at least as supporting, if not lead)it would be a crime.
Swank wasn't playing a lesbian in Boys Don't Cry. Just wanted to point that out. If we're referring to M$B, I don't recall any lesbianism scenes.
"Julianne MUST be nominated anyway with her co-star. It's the only way to reward her, after all those years of stunning performances (and a period under the radar). She was robbed last year and she is more deserving than Bening in terms of movie history and career."
Julianne Moore and movie history --- What? She’s well regarded but an under awarded actress. The important to movie history thing confuses me. Would movie history suffer if she couldn’t be Amber Waves? Yes but that’s her only yes from me. The Hand That Rocks the Cradle needs Julianne Moore --- her bitchiness is supreme. Ok that makes two key performances in movie history.
I would really love for any, any awards show to feature her "I need your advice like I need a dick up my ass!" scene as her clip. Not because it's crass, but because she delivered it so well and I remember my entire theater falling apart during that scene. They were all on her side after that.
caroline -- if only. what a clip that would be ;)
No. It's Julianne Moore who had that scene in The Hours. That makes it just two. And the concept of trans men makes it hard for me to accept Boys Don't Cry as gay. So that's 1 gay and 1 trans winner in an 85 year history. Compare to Lead Actor's streak of 3 gay characters and 1 asexual (ace) character (DDL in 2007) since 1993 and you start to see the problem. Not that I think Plainview is in any way a model, not even managing the strange sympathy you feel for Pretorious in Bride of Frankenstein. As I've said before, you could easily retitle There Will Be Blood this: The Passion of the Ace. On a kinetic and thematic level, I understand the appeal. On a moral level, I just couldn't understand it. Does PT Anderson actually want us to go back in our holes!? If Tom Cruise (who I view more as ace than gay. Read his commnts regarding Ed Scissorhands. More telling than any "did he bleep guys" speculation.) was involved in any level for what happened to The Master: I'm sad you took such a petty move, but I understand being peeved at the man who created Plainview, wanting to take him down some pegs. (And I half want to call bull at PT saying Sierra Madre was his prime inspiration. Last I remembered, Fred Dobbs and his team were, in that movie, identifiably sexual.)
And...sorry I rambled. It's like being peeved that Birth of a Nation is also a great movie. Evil, yet also great.
I know people don't see Teena Brandon as a lesbian, but I was talking biologically. She had a woman's body and kissed a girl. I don't want to make this a controversy and discuss sexuality. It was just a generic list, for stats purpose only.
Nathaniel, I haven't seen The Kids Are Alright yet, but I've read a lot os reviews, and I didn't get that overwhelming sensation of "she'll get an Oscar", you know?
Of course I'm gonna see it first day when it opens around here, but I get the feeling she'll need critics. Let's wait and see but I'm worried about
- supposedly doesn't carry the movie alone, and then...
- internal competition
- supposed low-key against supposed strong dramatics (Kidman, Portman, Manville) - but it worked for Paltrow, McDormand and Hunt
- I don't see support from critics awards (Manville has already taken everything, who are we fooling?)
- not in her prime years any more. too old for them and has never been a huge star like Sandra
But, ok, let's see. I just think Kidman's story to a second Oscar is way stronger
Still, if Kidman was not gay in The Hours and Swank was trans, Theron is the only actress awarded for playing a lesbian in Best Actress?
Someone else noticed. Yay.
Anyway, here's my prediction for Actress.
1. Bening
2. Portman
3. Kidman
Then it gets trickier because of all those other factors.
Manville-Her category confusion is aggravating me and every other Oscar predictor.
Moore-Smaller category issues. They're campaigning her as lead, but no guarantees.
Hawkins-Made in Dagenham has been described as "light" very often. She was "light" in Happy-Go-Lucky. Uh-oh.
Hathaway-Love and Other Drugs has been getting rather mixed reviews.
Lawrence-Please campaign her. She deserves a nod.
Lane-Sandra Bullock 2.0-now with a slightly better performance.
Swank-Get campaigning. Maybe they should play that trailer, which was the definition of Oscar bait, over and over again.
Williams-Might be a bit indie for them.
I'll stick Hawkins and (sigh) Manville in those last 2 spots.
cal -- i'd believe Kidman's second Oscar story if people felt warmly towards Kidman... but aside from her devoted fans and some smattering of cinephiles, who does? The whole problem with reaction to her is that people do not like her because she reads too "cool" and that's only ok with the male actors as we've seen time and time again with public adulation.
as for lesley manville, i really don't see how she could possibly be a tthreat to win. It isn't HER film in the way Secrets & Lies was Blethyn's and Vera Drake was Imelda's. (it's very much an ensemble picture) and plus all the same drawbacks every older woman has in this category where they prefer the younger ladies unless the older women are "due".
I've never firmly believed that Bening was going to win -- seems like too good to be true since I've loved her for so long and my love is an Oscar curse -- but right now it still looks good for her. I don't quite believe the Black Swan Portman win thing for the reasons you stated earlier.
Volvagia, you can always think there are very very few movies focused on lesbians.
Nat - the kiss thing? It only worked out for Sandra, as I recall.
(Now that I've seen Julie and Julia last week - and shame on me for not going to the theater, I can honestly say, AMPAS voters they had Gabby and Meryl and they chose Sandra? Really? Did the Gabby/Meryl votes cancel each other?)
Regarding Nicole's chances - I can't pretend to know, but when the snarky and very funny Guardian article you linked to is asking "Does Nicole hit all the right buttons in the trailer for an Oscar get?" even if it's satirical, I'd say that indicates that the Oscar talk is more than just talk in Nicole's case. Of course, the movie has to come out first...
caroline - The line is actually: I need your observations like I need a dick in my ass.
But yes, it was a great delivery and it would be a great clip. ;)
Is it just me, or does Sandra look like she's trying to suck the soul out of Meryll? Meryll does not look like she's enjoying this. Maybe she's the one being hazed in this photo
Hasn't playing a lesbian in a smart film been almost-instant Oscar bait since Rebecca?
@OtherRobert I can't find the lesbians even in supporting? Penélope Cruz had a lesbian kiss...
I didn't say Manville is a threat to win, but I think she's gonna sweep the critics (Leigh ladies always do) and that will prevent Bening from gaining momentum to win.
If Bening had the critics, she'd build a strong case for a win, but I can already see they falling for a Leigh lady, like they always do.
in cal's defense - -
I did see this piece online today:
http://blog.moviefone.com/2010/10/14/oscar-annette-bening
and sasha stone makes a strong case for moore as well:
http://www.awardsdaily.com/2010/10/a-look-at-best-actress/
anyway, who knows. I think they're both in the running; it's not quite the wild presumption nathaniel's emphatic reaction implies it is.
I too believe it's Benings's year and she'll go home with Oscar. Besides, she's fairly over due at this point.
"- supposed low-key against supposed strong dramatics (Kidman, Portman, Manville) - but it worked for Paltrow, McDormand and Hunt"
Paltrow had the Weinstein machine, nepotism from her parents’ friends, and a depressing lineup of competitors.
McDormand was in the best picture of the year that wasn’t winning best picture of the year. They rarely acknowledge comedy in the lead categories but when a character actress has a shot at the top prize and they rally around her you get those every now and then wins.
Hunt’s win came about because her co-star was Jack Nicholson. Since he was winning that night so does his female co-star. Only time this didn’t occur was when Anjelica Huston won for Prizzi’s Honor and he didn’t win in his category --- to explain this anomaly --- he had already won previous in the decade for Terms of Endearment and his female co-star also won.
Kidman could win a 2nd Oscar but not this soon. I have to say this about the ice queen thing --- her iciness isn’t a bitch, nor elitist, which is what the general populist see when they think Paltrow. I think Kidman is just a weirdo in a gorgeous woman’s body.
/3rtfull - i'd agree with that assessment. Which is why it's weird that I couldn't cotton to her performance in FUR more... because i think it's a character that seems analagous to Kidman's own artistic temperament.
Depressing line-up of competitors?
Watson, Montenegro and Blanchett. And a very very very good Streep? Don't think so. In my opinion, Paltrow was the best, but she would never win if the movie weren't the Best Picture winner.
Hunt and McDormand were also in Best Picture competitors, against non-overdue and British Best Picture starrers (KST, Winslet).
...
I think Bening would win if the movie gets big in the race. Not to win, but to land several nominations, like screenplay and picture.
Comedy actresses need best picture nomination to win. (see also: Cher, Keaton)
Sorry, cal roth, but which reviews for TKAA have you read? Bening DOES have the raves for a win. In contrast, where are all the great reviews and raves of Kidman that are giving her the frontrunner position in your opinion? I mean, sure, there were a lot of twitter reactions saying Kidman was the best and so on but... there are like 3 serious reviews as of now?
Depressing line-up of competitors?
Watson, Montenegro and Blanchett. And a very very very good Streep? Don't think so. In my opinion, Paltrow was the best, but she would never win if the movie weren't the Best Picture winner.
Hunt and McDormand were also in Best Picture competitors, against non-overdue and British Best Picture starrers (KST, Winslet).
Depressing lineup isn’t referring to the actual performances or the performers but the characters they played. The situations the characters were in fall into depressing and dark. FYI I support Paltrow’s win. I had to see Shakespeare in Love first in order to do so. Not my favorite performance from her but it’s not an unjust Oscar win.
Hunt got in because of Jack. I don’t believe she would’ve earned the nomination without him.
"i'd agree with that assessment. Which is why it's weird that I couldn't cotton to her performance in FUR more... because i think it's a character that seems analagous to Kidman's own artistic temperament."
Fur overstays its welcome. It’s long, drawn out, episodic, and assumes its audience wants to pause for every bizarre moment as if we’re prone to staring at car wrecks. I fess up to this as a devoted fan. I love the film because Kidman seems to be guiding the uninitiated. Reassuring us through her character and familiar face that the absurd journey we’re on isn’t about it being pleased with itself but for us to feel validated if we ourselves are artists or if we know someone whose mind is elsewhere and we haven’t been paying close attention to their unnoticed by us artistry.
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