The 50 Oldest Living Oscar Nominees

Happy birthday to Best Actress winner Joan Fontaine (Suspicion, 1941), also known as the second Mrs. DeWinter. She turns 93 years young today. What on earth was she thinking about when she won the Oscar. This photo to your left fascinates me on account of "who knows?" It seems so much more candid than many Oscar night photos.

I keep the following "still with us!" list, not from any morbid curiousity but from a genuine happiness that some legendary screen stars are still walking the earth even though most of them aren't walking the screens these days. This year has been rough with the losses so maybe I'm going to stop keep this list. My heart was in the right place!  We want the following to know that their past accomplishments are acknowledged by new generations.

The Oldest Living Oscar Nominees
All of them were born before the movies even had sound!

1. Luise Rainer (2 time Best Actress winner The Good Earth & The Great Ziegfield ... I love her in that one) turns 101 in January. May she live to be as old as she wants to be!
2. Norman Corwin (nominee for writing Lust for Live) is 100. 
3. Douglas Slocombe (3 time nominee) cinematographer of Raiders of the Lost Ark among other classics is 97.
4. Elmo Williams, also 97, won his Oscar for editing High Noon (1952) one of the earliest movies (though not the earliest) to be told in "real time."
5. Oswald Morris turns 95 in one month's time. He received all of his nominations for Best Cinematography for musicals (The Wiz, Oliver!, Fiddler on the Roof) but he also worked frequently with legendary director John Huston. Puppet classic The Dark Crystal (1982) was his last job.
6. Olivia de Havilland (2 time winner The Heiress & To Each His Own) is 94.
   
7. Kirk Douglas (Honorary Oscar and 3 time nominee), Spartacus himself, turns 94 in December.

8. Ernest Borgnine (winner Marty) turns 94 in January.
9. Celeste Holm (winner Gentleman's Agreement) is 93.
10. Joan Fontaine Happy 93rd, Joan! May you have anything you want today, unless it's something that Olivia de Havilland wouldn't be happy about because we love her. Just sayin'.
11. Tom Daly (5 time nominee) this Canadian producer nominated in short film and documentary categories is 92.
    
12. Joyce Redman (2 time nominee Tom Jones) turns 92 in December. [Trivia note: Tom Jones is the only film to have ever won three nominations in Supporting Actress. Pity that Robert Altman's Nashville didn't repeat that trick because it was deserving.]
    
13. Dino de Laurentiis (Thalberg winner and a producing winner for La Strada) recently turned 91. Sadly, the movie man has died. RIP.
14. Michael Anderson (nominee, directed Around the World in 80 Days) is 90.
    
15. Ravi Shankar (nominee, the co-composer for Gandhi) is 90.
16. Ray Harryhausen (Gordon Sawyer Award recipient), the f/x legend, just turned 90.
17. Mickey Rooney (Honorary Oscar and 4 time nominee) just turned 90.
18. Carol Channing (nominee Thoroughly Modern Millie) is 89. "Razzzzzbbberrries!"
19. Ken Adam is 89. He's a two time winner for Art Direction and his nominations stretch across 4 decades of cinema.
    
    

20. Hal David (winner "Raindrops Keep Falling on My Head" from Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid) is 89.
21. Deanna Durbin (Juvenile Award winner) is 88. She was only 18 when she won her Juvenile statue (shared with Mickey Rooney) but she retired from the screen just nine years later.
    much more trivia after the jump including Doris Day, the two oldest Supporting Actors and people who are too young for this list.

Read more »

Hump Day Hotness: Marital Bliss

Have you seen Vanity Fair's list of Hollywood's rarest unions: the longterm actor/actress marriage? I don't need to tell you that most Tinseltown marriages end in divorce. Yet some couple stick by each other and anyone in a long term relationship or marriage will know what a feat that often is. The immortal Paul Newman and Joanne Woodward are the longest lasting dual movie star marriage -- they were married for 50 years before Newman's death (2008, RIP). But the lengthiest dual actor marriages ever? The Reagans with 52 years and, up at the tippity top, recent Oscar nominee Ruby Dee (American Gangster) and Ossie Davis (2005, RIP) with 56 years of happily ever after.


I'm sure you've heard the famous Newman paraphrase about fidelity

Why fool around with hamburger when you have steak at home?

but what I loved most about their celebrated marriage was that they weren't overly sentimental about it in interviews, often admitting that couples can drive each other nuts, and regularly implying that patience and space are required -- they probably weren't co-dependent nuts in other words. They were able to do things without the other. The sense of humor also definitely helped. I hadn't read this before but I love the inscription on Newman's wedding gift (sherry glasses and a silver cup) to Woodward in 1958

So you wound up with Apollo / If he's sometimes hard to swallow / Use this.

The longest SAG marriages still running: Paula Prentiss (The Stepford Wives) and Richard Benjamin (Portnoy's Complaint) who've been together since 1961 and Oscar winner Olympia Dukakis and Louis Zorich (Mad About You) who've been together since 1962.

The only thing unsatisfying about a very satisfying stability-list like this is that a lot of star couples skip the matrimony part* so it's not entirely accurate. Susan Sarandon and Tim Robbins have been together for 21 years now and have yet to marry. And then there's the 26 year situation between Goldie Hawn and Kurt Russell.

Clockwise, top left: Patricia Wetting & Ken Olin, Tim Robbins &
Susan Sarandon (not married), Helena Bonham-Carter & Tim Burton (not
married), Dukakis & Zurich,The Beatty / The Bening, Will and Jada, Amy
Madigan & Ed Harris and Jamie Lee Curtis & Christopher Guest.

Two weeks back I attended a wedding in Austin which was multi-racial / multi-cultural (Japanese and American) and multi-religious (Shinto, Unitarian, Mormon) and included a moment to honor those who can't be legally married yet (the bride, a longtime friend of mine, has two mommies and two daddies). It was awesome. So anyone who thinks Rachel Getting Married was pure east coast liberal fiction can suck it! My point, which I haven't even gotten to, is this: Ain't love grand? ... and complicated ... and hard to measure... and worth celebrating whether it's fresh or well aged and whether or not there's a wedding certificate?! Celebrate it!

Truth, Beauty, Freedom...
and above all things, Love

P.S. Ryan Reynolds and Scarlett Johansson (aka "Abs & Boobs") have now been married for 7½ months !

<--- P.S. 2 Check out this awesome photograph of Newman and Woodward at home, just a few years into their marriage. SO adorable. Thanks to Catherine for pointing the way to it.

previously on hump day hotties:
April Fools, Battlestar Galactica, Carla Gugino, Juliette Binoche, Gael Garcia Bernal & Diego Luna and many more...

Red Carpet Lineup

I decided that my red carpet series needed a new look. So I've adjusted slightly. I'm guessing I like doing it more than you like seeing it but whatevs. I blog for me. Me! Me! Me! So with my perplexing obsession with celebrity heighth in mind (I'm not a macrophile in my civilian life. I swear) I've coopted The Usual Suspects poster. Partially because I like to showcase actresses who most blogs who feature celebrity photos ignore. So... get it? It's tagline humor: "you've got to look beyond the usual suspects" No? Anyone? I blog for me. Me! Me! Me!

Anyway the blogs that showcase all the red carpet photos are obsessed with people like Phoebe Price, Heidi Montag and Kim Kardashian and honestly I don't even know who those people are. My brain is too filled with real actors to make room for these people, whoever they may be and whatever they may do. I don't need to know.

Here we go. On the carpets this week...


Saffron Burrows (or 'Mrs. Fiona Shaw' as I like to call her) is a tall drink of water and quite a looker. Fiona is a lucky crazy lady. Thespians Ruby Dee & Sissy Spacek I've grouped together. They're both so tiny. First person to guess why I've placed them side by side earns my immediate respect and may choose the banner motif next week. But one question: Is Sissy Spacek training for a roll in Kill Bill Vol. 3? What is that ka-ra-té outfit about? It's better not to ask what Sally Kirkland is "about" but merely to enjoy her flamboyance and her death's grip on her own peculiar celebrity. It's been 21 years since her one and only Oscar nomination (for Anna) and she still works the red carpet circuit like a tireless coke-fueled 21 year old starlet. It's like she's always looking for work and will be noticed. Naturally I love her. Kristin Chenowith is not even 5 foot tall! All that cuteness and those huge multi-octave pipes are packed into but 59 inches. And like I mentioned some time ago live-blogging, I love that she always wears huge bows like she's offering herself up as gift. It's astute self analysis, non?

Meanwhile Reese Witherspoon and Jennifer Connelly are like "This line-up is too C-List for us. We're outta here." But Jennifer, honey, what have you done for us lately?
____ Reese, you're free to go.
*

A Mormon Wedding. No, Not That Kind.

Family duty calls and I am heading out west this Wednesday. My niece is getting married. She recently told me that she checked out this blog from curiosity

Gorgeous Wonderful Niece: I didn't understand one word of it. I guess film has its own language now.

Nathaniel: ...now?

So... my one and only niece is getting married. Mormons tend to marry young but this still makes me officially old. Like Methusaleh Hal Holbrook / Ruby Dee old. Next time I do a fundraiser I will be asking for botox injections instead of cash.

After buying my plane tickets to this blessed event and, thus, suddenly cognizant of my own mortality, I went out and purchased my first ever "eye cream". I'm looking forward to erasing the fine lines, reducing the puffiness, and removing the dark circles... in just seven days! (I hear that sleeping regularly and eating well might also achieve this effect but that sounds like an old wive's tale to me). I'm excited to see this eye cream work its magic so quickly but does this mean I'll soon start believing all those messages clogging my inbox that assure me that I just won millions of dollars, can regrow all my hair and add 4 inches to my penis? Modern quackery science: it's all about making life more liveable.

I will try and say "hi" from my travels at least once. Perhaps I will dance for you at the Lehi Roller Mills a la Footloose... unless I'm forced to replace a hip before I get there. We'll see. While I'm away I've enlisted three crazies to entertain you. You'll be hearing from...

Thom @ Planet Fabulon
JA @ My New Plaid Pants
Susan @ Awards Daily

But I'm Still Here for the next couple of days. After which these kind souls take over for a week.
*

Links, Caution

If you've ever wondered how I choose my links...
It's mostly general surfing + what people send me using the e-mail link to the "tips, suggestion" in the upper right hand corner + regular favorites from my rss feeds. I will be revamping my link lists / subscriptions soon... eager to find new stuff. So if you'd like me to notice your blog or any blog you think does great work, send it to the e-mail with "FYC" in the title field.

Miscellania
Trading Faces funny popculture genealogy for 'Project Runway Too Gay'
Slant Magazine goes to NY Fashion Week. Asides to Project Runway, America's Next Top Model, and Sex & The City: The Movie for you tv maniacs
Seriously? OMG! WTF? Natalie loves Scarlett's twins
Culture Snub investigates credible motives and character flaws in There Will Be Blood and Michael Clayton. I beg to differ on a couple points about the latter, but a good read
Jezebel Sex & The City trailer. Lots of plot reveals.

Pfun with Pfeiffer
flickr Attack of mega giantess Michelle
Personal Effects LaPfeiffer's new movie has a trailer. This is the one with Ashton Kutchner-Moore
Coraline teaser. OK, strictly speaking this has nothing to do with Michelle Pfeiffer. But she was originally supposed to play "Mother/Other Mother" when this was going to be a live action film. And now it's animated and it's... um... Teri Hatcher.

DVD Land

Bluegum on The Darjeeling Limited & Nu Orientalism. Interesting piece
also relatively new on DVD: Lust, Caution (winner of 1 gold, 3 silver medals and a bronze in the 8th annual film bitch awards), American Gangster (meh), Michael Clayton (hell, yeah), Margot at the Wedding (Kidman was Oscar nom' worthy), Beowulf (my review), In the Shadow of the Moon, Death at a Funeral (my review), Slipstream and 30 Days of Night (don't do it. worst of the year)

still hung up on Oscar?
...and you've (almost) had enough articles on the Oscars but I just want to share three quotes that I really enjoyed from Rob Scheer, Nick Davis and Jeffrey Wells

"I've got to say, it still makes no sense to me that this movie is an Oscar winner for Best Picture. It's too challenging, too cerebral, too symbolic, too meditative, too cynical, too phenomenal. It doesn't make sense. This is the award that's supposed to go to movies that say racism is bad or wittily hypothesize the backstory of writing of "Romeo and Juliet" or commemorate the Holocaust. It's not supposed to go to morally murky, violent Coen Brothers movies with abrupt, thought-provoking endings that basically impart the message that society is quickly going to shit. What the fuck has happened to the Oscars? I have no idea, but whatever it is, it's something worth celebrating."
-Rob Scheer on No Country For Old Men's win

"Swinton didn't win for a single reason other than her performance, with the slight exception of Michael Clayton's shutout in other categories. Even there, plenty of well-liked nominees go home empty-handed every year ... Otherwise, though, the critics didn't help her, beyond the rave reviews from several months ago: somehow, when prize season arrived, they only had eyes for Amy Ryan. She didn't have a Globe or a SAG. She isn't, remotely, a Hollywood elbow-rubber. She isn't "owed" in any way the Academy recognizes (and certainly not the way Ruby Dee is). She isn't the young thing of the moment. She didn't play a likeable character. She didn't play the character in a simply digestible way. Her part wasn't showy, though it was generously featured. The general public has a dim sense of her as the White Witch of Narnia, but little else. Why did she win? It's the performance, stupid... Good enough to persuade voters on its own terms once they got around to seeing it, and good enough to qualify as the best winner in this category since the proximate wins of Peggy Ashcroft and Dianne Wiest in 1984 and 1986—if not the best since Vanessa Redgrave won in 1977, and in virtually the same dress, plus a left sleeve. For all the well-earned reputation of insiderism and errant, delayed sentiment that the Academy has accrued over time, they don't always vote that way, and when they don't, it's glorious."
-Nick Davis on Tilda's win

"These are some of the best movies that the filmmaking culture is turning out now. Every year there are at least 20 or 25 films that are somewhere between excellent, very good or good enough to watch and think about later. If regular people in Boston and Saskatchewan are living such insulated and cut-off lives that they can't be bothered to go to some of these films unless it has an advertised 'happy pill' vibe then the hell with them. They're children. I have no time for childishness, and neither does anyone else of any worth. Life is short."
-Jeffrey Wells on the same dumb knee jerk 'why haven't I heard of these films?' inexplicable whining that I was bitching about yesterday. [Go get 'em Jeffrey!]

BAFTA and After? Les Girls

Now that the dust has settled from BAFTA night, let's take a look at two winning ladies. But first, some red carpet lovelies...

Emily Blunt, Keira Knightley and Tilda Swinton on BAFTA's red carpet.
Kate Winslet at the BAFTA/LA event across the water.

With the biggest movie awards night less than a fortnight away, common wisdom has the big six Oscars going like so...

Pic: No Country For Old Men
Dir: The Coen Bros (more locked up than for pic itself)
Actor: Day-Lewis
Supp Actor: Bardem
Actress: Christie... um Cotillard? ...maybe Page sneaks?
Supporting Actress: Cate Blanchett --no wait, Ruby Dee! But Amy Ryan... here comes Tilda Swinton...omg, could Saoirse Ronan actually surprise? It's the only race where all five nominees feel like true possibilities.

pssst (remember to vote on your preference but clicking any of the category links above!)

Yes, the ladies are proving unruly. Or at least this weekend's BAFTA awards would have us believe so. So, time to do some digging. How well does BAFTA correlate to Oscar? It's more complicated than just "does it match" since the nominees are different and in some cases, the year doesn't even line up. I've only gone back to 2000 because prior to that BAFTA only had 4 nominees in the acting categories and they took place after the Oscars.

BAFTA Lead Actress
Can Cotillard repeat? She's looking like a stronger spoiler possibility for the grand Julie Christie (Away From Her) than we expected. The media seemed to be leaning towards Page as the spoiler until this past week. Christie has won the majority of prizes but it's been nothing like a Mirren size "sweep" which leads one to wonder... why the backlash she seems to be facing? I'm none too pleased about this though the internet throngs will be happy as clams. In Marion's favor: When BAFTA varies from Oscar (in blue) it's only been in years when the eventual Oscar winner was not up for the BAFTA. The only nominee who qualifies: Laura Linney (The Savages) for that upset statistic. In Christie's favor: There is only 7 years of history to draw from and that is very little to base "always" and "never" and any statistics on, you know.

2007 Marion Cotillard in La Vie En Rose
Nomination similarity to Oscar: 4/5
2006 Helen Mirren for The Queen
She won all but one media covered prize in the world. It wasn't a race so much as a slow royal waving parade through awards land... 'Yes, you may worship me.'
Nomination similarity to Oscar: 5/5
2005 Reese Witherspoon in Walk the Line
Nomination similarity to Oscar: 3/5
2004 Imelda Staunton for Vera Drake
She won this prize but her late surge was not enough to defeat Hilary Swank's Million Dollar Baby. However, Swank and Bening (her cheif rivals that year in America) were not nominated. Staunton only had to overcome a vote splitting Kate Winslet (BAFTA allows dual nominations in the same acting category. Oscar does not) and the previous year's Oscar winner Charlize Theron (Monster). Many pundits believe that Staunton would have won the Oscar that year, too if the voting had been a month later as the media might have tired of the Bening/Swank rematch and Staunton's momentum could've happened a little sooner.
Nomination similarity to Oscar: 2/5

2003 Scarlett Johansson for Lost in Translation
The winner was not Oscar nominated but then only one of BAFTA's nominees (Naomi Watts in 21 Grams) was. 2003 was unarguably the most volatile Best Actress year from the past decade of awards history. As many as 12 different women seemed possible for quite some time for the coveted shortlist positions. The confusion resulted in a surprising Best Actress lineup that bore little resemblance to precursor "guessing"
2002 Nicole Kidman for The Hours
In a rare year that was very similar to the Oscar lineup (only Julianne Moore in Far From Heaven was missing) Kidman won both.
2001 Judi Dench in Iris
Oscar winning Halle Berry (Monster's Ball) was not nominated.
Nomination similarity to Oscar: 3/5
2000 Julia Roberts in Erin Brockovich
Beat out the 99 Oscar winner Hilary Swank in Boy's Don't Cry. Even though BAFTA has very similar taste in Best Actress winners, they shun the ones who weren't eligible in the same year... more backup for the argument that awards are mostly about timing, not the acting.
Nomination similarity to Oscar: 2/5


SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Can Tilda Swinton repeat her surprise BAFTA win and take this year's Supporting Actress Oscar? The history looks promising for the red headed icon and it would be a way to reward a film (Michael Clayton) the Academy loves that could go home empty-handed otherwise. Two worrisome things for Tilda though:

1. In each of the years when BAFTA matched Oscar (in red), there was a clear frontrunner who was winning everything. This is the first thing she's won.
2. In each of the year's when BAFTA did not choose the same winner (in blue) the eventual Oscar winner was not nominated for the BAFTA in that category. So if Tilda doesn't win, that's good news for Ruby Dee and Amy Ryan and very bad news for Cate Blanchett and Saoirse Ronan. So, if you trust in BAFTA --a short term statistic --the Oscar race is between Swinton, Dee and Ryan.

2007 Tilda Swinton in Michael Clayton
Nomination similarity to Oscar: 3/5 (Ruby Dee & Amy Ryan are not nominated)
2006 Jennifer Hudson in Dreamgirls
Nomination similarity to Oscar: 2/5
2005 Thandie Newton in Crash (pictured to the right from last weekend's event)
This is the only time in BAFTA's "precursor" history that their supporting actress winner was not even nominated for the Oscar. The actual Oscar winner (Rachel Weisz) was nominated in BAFTA's lead category. Nomination similarity to Oscar: 3/5
2004 Cate Blanchett in The Aviator Nomination similarity to Oscar: 2/5
2003 Renée Zellweger in Cold Mountain Similarity to Oscar: 2/5
2002 Catherine Zeta Jones in Chicago Similarity to Oscar: 4/5
2001 Jennifer Connelly in A Beautiful Mind Similarity to Oscar: 5/5
2000 Julie Walters in Billy Elliott The Oscar winner (Marcia Gay Harden for Pollock) was not nominated. BAFTA and Oscar lined up: 3/5

Your turn: Do you think the BAFTA wins for the ladies mean anything? Especially since both men seem more than locked up for Oscar wins (would Oscar really go 4/4 match?) Or do you think that with AMPAS ballots due in less than a week that most of them are turned in already and BAFTA only reflects voting prejudices over the pond?

Oscar Symposium Wrap: Adopt! Slap! Predict!

>Whew< ... that party was so much fun to host. Today I will be cleaning up after it. If you're just joining the Oscar Symposium conversation, you'll want to start from day one. But if you've been playing along, here's the wrap up.

Day Three

In which Best Actress is discussed and Nathaniel discovers a bunch of Marion Cotillard supporters in his house (blasphemy, the Oscar must be Christie's!), the participants offer the Lovely Laura Linney free advice on how she might finally win that Oscar and we end with a party game -- make like Ruby Dee in American Gangster and Hal Holbrook from Into the Wild: choose a film, person, or filmthing to slap or adopt.


You know you want to play this game in the comments. Let's hear from everyone... even the lurkers. Who do you want to just hug and protect and who needs some sense knocked into them? (But first go and read the symposium)
*

Late Night SAG

So, I went to a Broadway show (Sunday in the Park with George) tonight instead of seeing SAG live --I haven't been feeling awards season this year what with all the strike business. So I'm still watching it now on rerun when I should be sleeping. My only takeaways so far: Ruby Dee's insane Carol Channingesque glasses, a reminder that I really need to watch Mad Men, another fix of my Krak addiction (Jane Krakowski: "I'm Johnny Depp and I'm an actor"), Mickey Rooney annoyingly making a presenting job into a self-tribute (Dude! It was Charles Durning's night, not yours), Cate Blanchett losing her fashion sense for once, Viggo Mortensen's maroon vest, why is the camera not showing Michelle Pfeiffer (I know she's there! Oh wait, there she is. mmmm), Tilda's cute embarrassment watching her own Michael Clayton clip.

the winners
Ensemble No Country For Old Men
Actor Daniel Day-Lewis -There Will Be Blood
Actress Julie Christie -Away From Her
Supporting Actor Javier Bardem -No Country For Old Men
Supporting Actress Ruby Dee American Gangster (and I really wish I'd printed up predictions because I decided a few days ago that she was going to win the Oscar this year, too)

Screen Actors Guild Nominations

Updated Post The SAG Nominations have now been announced. Guild nominations are essentially the final and most telling pieces of pre-Oscar prediction puzzles so once they announce you have the bulk of clues you're going to get before the Academy has its say names its nominees... Just how does this affect the predictions?

ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett -Elizabeth the Golden Age
Julie Christie -Away From Her
Marion Cotillard -La Vie En Rose
Angelina Jolie -A Mighty Heart
Ellen Page -Juno

This is probably your Oscar line up. But it's disappointing that actors, who use their imagination so frequently in their day jobs, have such poor imaginations when it comes time to judging acting. Blanchett's cartoon performance (Elizabeth) is not superior to Amy Adams cartoon performance (Enchanted) if you know what I mean... And that's just for starters. Cate's hurricane strips awards groups bare apparently. Even when they have other places to honor her in deserving ways (see: supporting)

ACTOR
George Clooney -Michael Clayton
Daniel Day-Lewis -There Will Be Blood
Ryan Gosling -Lars and the Real Girl
Emile Hirsch -Into the Wild
Viggo Mortensen -Eastern Promises

The surprise snub here is Johnny Depp as the demon barber in Sweeney Todd. But starpower for Depp and/or Washington (American Gangster) could still knock someone out of this interesting and respectable lineup (sigh) It's not my five but I'd be fine with this as the Oscar shortlist. Not a bad performance or even a truly mediocre one here.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett -I'm Not There
Ruby Dee -American Gangster
Catherine Keener -Into the Wild
Amy Ryan -Gone Baby Gone
Tilda Swinton -Michael Clayton

Supporting Actress has been a question mark all year in one way or another and continues to be with this SAG announcement. Only Blanchett, Ryan and Swinton are named every time out. Those 4th and 5th slots are still highly competitive...We can now officially worry for little Saorsie Ronan (Atonement): typically SAG is even kinder to the young ones than Oscar itself. Not good news for her or Atonement today. Fighting for two volatile spots with Oscar: Ruby Dee, Kelly Macdonald, Saorsie Ronan, Vanessa Redgrave and Catherine Keener. Jennifer Jason Leigh (see: my interview) , Jennifer Garner and Marisa Tomei probably saw their last hopes dashed here with the SAG snubs.

SUPPORTING ACTOR
Casey Affleck -The Assassination of Jesse James
Javier Bardem -No Country For Old Men
Hal Holbrook -Into the Wild
Tommy Lee Jones -No Country For Old Men
Tom Wilkinson -Michael Clayton

This indicates end game for John Travolta in Hairspray (if it was going to happen, wouldn't SAG have played along?) But I still wouldn't count out Phillip Seymour Hoffman (Charlie Wilson's War) giving the boot to one of these superior performances. If there's a surprise coming --occassionally things that don't get any precursor love do end up in the Oscar shortlists-- your options are but two: Paul Dano (There Will Be Blood) and Max von Sydow (The Diving Bell and Butterfly)

ENSEMBLE
3:10 to Yuma
American Gangster
Hairspray
Into the Wild
No Country For Old Men

These don't look so bad as ensemble choices. I'm happy to see them think about what constitutes an ensemble as opposed to what means "Best Picture"

* Updates to Oscar pages later tonight. For now, have it out in the comments.