Thursday, December 21, 2006

Supporting Actor: Updates

Where are we at now?

I've altered the rankings in my Supporting Actor Predictions for Oscar. But I'll say this. It looks volatile ... or at least more volatile than other categories. Nearly a dozen men still in the mix, albeit with varying levels of traction. But here's where I currently think Oscar will go. Return and discuss.

  • Why did Steve Carell (a comedian getting serious) never get any traction?
  • Where did Brad Pitt's buzz go?
  • Can Oscar enjoy Mark Wahlberg the way audiences do?
  • Of the major players, who do you think doesn't have the traction suspected?
Also vote on the new poll (the past 20 years of the supporting actor Oscar)

27 comments:

adam k. said...

I think Haley is at least doing better than #11, and better than Beach (he's the critical leader), but I could be wrong.

Weird that Sheen didn't get a BFCA nod. I'd forgotten about that. Why is it that he still seems more likely than everyone else when all he's gotten is critics' awards?

I think Carrell could get a SAG nod along with Arkin. Just to make things even more confusing. I think SAG will be something like Murphy/Nicholson/Carrell/Arkin/Sheen.

Arun said...

I'm with ya on the Pitt snub, though I'd switch him for Wahlberg (who seems to be gaining everyday) rather than Affleck, whose buzz seems a little 'fluffy' (did that make sense?).

I'm also not sure how to read Honsou's buzz. He could easily be a non-starter and, then again, just as easily not.

As for Carrell, I imagine he was ignored both because of internal competition, Alda's role is showier, and because his performance is a quiet and subtle one, in contrast to the usual 'comedian makes good' roles that are 'LOOK AT ME!'. It does piss me off that Will Ferrell is getting recognised here and there for an equally quiet performance that is nowhere near as good. Carrell can do so much with his eyes, whereas Ferrell's are almost dead.

adam k. said...

Oh, and I think it's safe to say that Jack and Eddie are locks, even with the category as tight as it is. They're in the frontrunner films and they're stars, and they've been thought of as locks for months.

John T. said...

My money would be on:

1. Eddie Murphy
2. Jack Nicholson
3. Brad Pitt
4. Michael Sheen
5. Alan Arkin

Looking at that list, it's difficult to see who wins. The Globes may actually make the difference here, though if I had to go out on a limb, I'd say Arkin wins the occasional "Lifetime Achievement" Award. It has been almost forty years since his last nomination.

Anonymous said...

I think Pitt is going snub since Babel is likely going to miss out for Best pic as word is the acemendy is not nearly as big on it as the Globes was.

My guess is that it will be Ben, Jack, Eddie, Alan, and Sheen.

And If the acemdeny is not watching their untied 93 screeners like rumor then those some votes is not going to vote for Haley given who he plays.

Patrick said...

Pitt's Buzz went away because the performance isn't really that special. It's really just a servicable performance like Clooney last year in Syrianna. The only difference is, Pitt doesn't have another, more critically acclaimed movie to balance out this overrated performance..

The Carell thing still confuses me. People love that film, but I'm starting to feel that people must think it "acted itself" in the same way that Moulin Rouge "directed itself." go figure.

Anonymous said...

I think Whalberg and Pitt are stronger then Sheen and Affleck. I don't think Sheen will be nominated, his performance is not very strong. He's only a Tony Blair's clone.

Dario

16 year old blogger said...

I have a feeling that Sheen will get snubbed for Jackie Earle Haley but you never know.

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Anonymous said...

Yeah, I too think Jackie Earle Haley could sneak in. One of those too-good-to-miss-off-the-ballot nominations that will sneak traction from a likely nomination for a leading actor (think Aghdashloo in HOSAF following on from Kingsley's lead).

I too am baffled by Carell's MIA status; after seeing the film I honestly thought he had more likelihood than Arkin.

Sometimes things just don't happen for whatever reason.

Least likely to get bumped from the likely nominees? Affleck.

And I think Wahlberg will sneak in. One of those nominations that surprise you at the beginning of awards season, but has everyone going, "Oh yeah, you know what? He was great!"

Rob

Anonymous said...

...which they could have done with I Heart Huckabee's, but that's another story.

Rob

Anonymous said...

At first I was shocked to see you left out Pitt- which the acting branch will obviousley eat up... but then, I guess a backlash isn't out of the question.

And I think you really should move Haley up into your top 8. Regardless if he goes unmentioned until nomination morning he still has a secret weapon: the NYFCC victroy. (Plus, more critics are rallying behind him now) He's a dark horse horse for sure.

damian said...

Haley reminds me of that limbo area that William Hurt was in, this time last year.

NATHANIEL R said...

i just think the nature of the Jackie Earle Haley's role is not something they'll go for. When was the last time a naturalistic depiction of a creepy character was nominated?

usually the monster characters that hit are theatrically played in a "love to hate me" fashion -- like say Silence of the Lambs -- dylan baker got critical raves for a similar character to Haley's in Happiness and probably didn't even get close to a nom.

Of course Happiness was much harder to take in general than Little Children and he didn't have that Hollywood backstory so who knows...

Stephen G said...

I think Sheen DOES have an Oscar clip moment - when he turns on his staff at the end and shouts at them, defending the Queen.

This race reminds me of 2002, when it got down to 7 men who all seemed equally likely, and Quaid (FFH) and Molina (Frida) missed out.

daveylow said...

I don't know about Oscar, but Haley will most likely get a SAG nomination. He's the perfect SAG member story. Praised when young then forgotten, then picked out the rubble heap. And Kate helped him get the role for Little Children by reading with him at his audition, where she burst into tears. Such a lovely comeback story.

Emma said...

Eww. Sacha Bara Cohen for Best Actor. It ain't right.

Go Emily!

Anonymous said...

This award is completely Eddie Murphy's to lose. He's fabulous in DREAMGIRLS and the man deserves a career Oscar.

adam k. said...

...except in 2002, Quaid seemed MORE likely than everyone else, but was snubbed anyway. Agh, bad memories.

I think Jackie Earle Haley will find a way into the shortlist. SAG will tell a lot, though. Some of these people aren't going to make SAG and then they'll look a lot less strong.

I really think SAG could go crazy and nominate Haley, Damon and/or Carrell and get everybody confused.

Anonymous said...

Speaking of Jackie Earle Haley, I'm watching an episode of "Law & Order: SVU" from a few years ago, and Phyllis Somerville (who played his mom in "Little Children") is guest-starring as... the elderly mother of a recently released pedophile. Same role, good audition tape.

Anonymous said...

Speaking of Phyllis Somerville...what happened to her buzz? Just a couple of months ago, her buzz was building on good word-of-mouth and critical praise, but now it's effectively gone. (Sort of like Melissa Leo's for '21 Grams' back in 2003. Too small of a roll, perhaps?)

Marco

Anonymous said...

Phillys Sommerville should be ALL OVER the Best Supporting Actress nominations. But it ain't happening.

Rob

Kamikaze Camel said...

"Where did Brad Pitt's buzz go?"

I can understand that he had buzz before the movie opened because he's BRAD PITT, but really... what performance? It was perfectly adaquate. He doesn't have much to do except yell for an ambulence A LOT. Same goes for Jack Nicholson. He's only getting nominated because he's JACK NICHOLSON. Unlike, say, Meryl Streep, who did something we'd never seen her do before, we'd seen what Jack does many times before.

I think Affleck is gonna get in too. I don't know why. It feels very Alec Baldwin/The Cooler doncha think?

I still say it's between Murphy and Arkin for the win, with Arkin actually getting the statue. Think Jack Palance. Think James Coburn.

The Steve Carell thing is also quite strange. He was my favourite from the film, personally. Although it is nice that various different groups have noticed Arkin, Collette, Dano and Breslen in various forms. But, yeah, no Carell (specially with the HFPA) is odd.

Felix said...

Nat, what about Charlize Theron?

NATHANIEL R said...

felix,
the fact that she was deglamming cancelled that one out ;)

Felix said...

::sigh::

ok, sure Nat. I think i'll just add Haley's no. 11 placing with you placing Vera in front of Catherine.. you really boggle my mind man, but I guess that's why I like you.

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