Saturday, July 14, 2007

Oscar Predix Updates Complete

Just a heads up that I've been toiling away to complete the halfway mark predictions for Oscar. We still know very little but why not... Big gains for In the Valley of Elah (Paul Haggis won't go away!), Ratatouille, and No Country For Old Men (let's hope the buzz is correct and the Coen Bros really are back) and drops for There Will Be Blood (looks awesome but perhaps Oscar still won't quite be able to appreciate P.T. Anderson's genius as they should)

Commentary and updates in almost every category. Start there or go directly to Best Picture. Return and discuss if the Oscar spirit is all up inside you.

29 comments:

Mikadzuki said...

Is it just me or does 2007 seem like 2005 all over again? Major films by Paul Haggis, Ang Lee, Joe Wright, David Cronenberg, George Clooney, Woody Allen (doing serious stuff), Michael Haneke and Noah Baumbach etc.

But then again, 2005 didn't have P.T. Anderson in its corner. :)

vince said...

I think Waitress might have a shot at original screenplay.

Anonymous said...

I have a feeling Chralie Wilson's War is the big hype moive and will be the big letdown.

Anonymous said...

I meant Charlie WIlson's War.

NATHANIEL R said...

as do i. you'll notice i don't have it with any nominations currently

Mitch said...

The fact that all year people have been predicting Charlie Wilson's War to be a letdown almost make me feel that would be too predictable of an outcome.

does that make sense?

Anonymous said...

I see you reversed the rankings of Chiwetel's performances in supporting.

I haven't seen "Talk to Me" but a lot of people are talking about Don and Henson.

Anonymous said...

The first still of Charlie Wilson's War with Hanks and Roberts just makes me laugh. I think it is the size of Julia's head that does it to me.

Anonymous said...

Yeah, right now, Charlie Wilson's War reminds me too much of The Good Shepherd.

J.D. said...

The only difference is The Good Shepherd was actually good. (hehehehehe)

rural juror said...

Please God, make Atonement good.

Boyd said...

I'm with rural juror. I want it to be good so badly. Please let Wright make another perfect movie. Pretty please with cherry on top???

RC said...

love the updates.

i agree with your inclusion of rendition for sure. i hope hood makes a great english language film.

Anonymous said...

I still want to see Aaron Sorkin pick up an Oscar nomination in writing, so I'll be rooting for "Charlie Wilson's War" all the way to December. I liked the trailer for "In the Valley of Elah", so I hope that this will be a solid follow-up for Paul Haggis at least (and give Susan Sarandon something worth her time and talent here, please?).

Kamikaze Camel said...

If Paul Haggis gets nominated again for writing this year, he'll surely become the first since, I dunno, Woody Allen(?) to get so many nominations for writing in such a short period of time. He'll be 4 noms from 4 years.

It's funny that There Will Be Blood has gone down in your minds because it's gone up in my mind. Absolutely nothing is jumping out at me. I don't see Charlie and Gangster being good enough for Oscar (even if they are good by nature), Atonement is British and it's been a while since they went British. Stuff like No Country and Rendition don't scream BEST PICTURE WINNER and so on and on so.

Plus, it's actually rare that Picture and Director get split and even if it's amazing I can't see them awarding people like Joe Wright, Gavin Hood, Tony Gilroy, Terry George, etc. PT Anderson could be the only first time nominee that they could feel has earned it (as you say, they make directors wait sometimes). And I don't see Haynes getting there with his Dylan biopic.

BUT, it is only July so I'm, basically, talking a lot of crap.

JS said...

Everything that will be considered in contention once again feels like heavy drama. Even comedies like Margot at the Wedding and The Savages are starting to make me feel weighed down.

Is it anticipation or dread for the Oscar Release season? =/

Anonymous said...

CHARLIE WILSON may be a letdown, but having it at zero nominations is madness. Even THE GOOD SHEPHERD snagged an Art Direction. CLOSER, which was Nichols last "letdown", scored two acting nods. DREAMGIRLS got 8 for fuck sakes!

Anonymous said...

Kamikaze, it may be rare for Picture and Director to split, but it's happened 3 times in the past 7 years (Soderbergh, Polanski, Lee).

Also Nate I like how on your tabulation of how many noms for each you have some strange hybrid beast called IN THE VALLEY OF MARGOT @ WEDDING. Now THAT would be a frontrunner!

Anonymous said...

I know you're not all convinced, but I think Imelda Staunton is at least "in the mix" for a Supporting Actress nomination. I've read the words "awards worthy" a couple of times in reviews, and the Swank/Staunton make-up apology could be as weighty as the Hunt/Dench one was.

Plus you just KNOW the BAFTA nomination is in the bag!

Rob

NATHANIEL R said...

i actually loved Imelda's performance but i would be utterly shocked if they noticed acting in a Potter film. Sometimes there's a shot in the first edition or second edition of a genre film (LOTR, STAR WARS, ALIENS and I suspect a few other "almost nominated"s) but once these things get going they don't look at them as 'acting' films.

Kamikaze Camel said...

I think the only way an acting nom is going to happen for Harry Potter is if the film itself becomes a major player. And while there's not really much of a precedent, I can't see the fifth movie in a bi-yearly series which hasn't gotten as good a reviews as the last two is going to really shake up the major categories.

Lord of the Rings only ever got one acting nom and that series had three Best Picture noms, two Best Director noms and, well, y'all know the rest. THey (thankfully) didn't even nominate Sean Astin for the final one when there was big buzz.

Arkaan said...

re: Staunton

If this were among the first two releases, I might see a nod, but now, the series has already become one of those entrenched franchises that you already have your opinions on, whether or not you actually iike the films. This is the fifth Harry Potter movie since 2001. Additionally, it has to deal with His Dark Materials: The Golden COmpass coming out in December, which in every conceivable way is a better story and Nicole Kidman has a key supporting role in that. That said, I could sort of imagine the last film making some headway if the year is weak.

re: Haggis

Will he please just go the fuck away? Not since the heyday of Woody Allen has a writer become so dominant within the academy. Million Dollar Baby was 2004's most overrated film (though it was still effective). Crash was 2005's worse film. Letters from Iwo Jima was largely effective because Haggis' contributions were so clearly minimal (which is why Flags of our Fathers was bad). And now he's making an Iraq drama? Just shoot me now. Also, can we take Tommy Lee Jones' oscar and give it to Ralph Fiennes.

re: Nominations in general

I'm quite curious about The Brave One. The trailer makes it look quite interesting (if unoscary) and Foster looks particularly good. That said, it looks too tough and contemporary to actually make it (for what it's worth, I said similar things about The Departed last year, and I'm still surprised it went all the way).

Nathaniel, you don't think Away From Her could be a vote siphoner? It'll play well as a screener, Lions Gate is a known campaigner (the debacle of two years ago), will likely go over extremely well with the older members of the academy. Sarah Polley's ripe for a few breakthrough directing awards and Christie will certainly make a run through it.

I'm curious if all the political themed dramas will really cut into each others support all that much. The academy doesn't mind repeating itself (see 1998: two Elizabethan films and three WWII movies, and there was other bait being dangled).

sunny said...

How could you forget 3:10 to Yuma? The act-off between Christian Bale and Russell Crowe should be electric. Also, Crowe will probably get a Supporting nod for "Gangster".

NATHANIEL R said...

sunny
--i added it in now: didn't mean to forget it.

arkaan
--good point about AWAY FROM HER. it'll probably go in the top 25 after the next edit (when something fails. you know MANY of these films will be dropping like flies once people screen them... that's always the way it goes

and good point about the duplication too. we'll see what happens there. fwiw I thought the 98 lineup was insomnia curing in its surface sameness (though i love THIN RED LINE and of course it's quite dissimilar to the other WWII pictures)

js
--the heaviness is only because we can't see what's coming. something lighter will usually rise up. they're just harder to spot ahead of time because they can't get automatic cred from their genre or subject matter

Anonymous said...

His Dark Materials was okay, it wasn't worth the hype the last book is absolutely dreadful. It is a bit more original, but that doesn't make it great.

Hardy said...

The last book was the worst, but it most certainly wasn't dreadful.

Tony Goes said...

Hi, Nat, how are you?

Nat, I just read your predictions for the animation category at the Oscars.

I agree that "Ratatouille" and "The Simpsons Movie" will be nominated, and the former will win.

But I don't think that "Shrek The 3rd" will make the cut. My guess is that the third slot will go to "Persepolis", which caused a splash and won an award in Cannes. "Persepolis" opens in the U.S. in October, and will receive a big push from Sony.

It's in 2-D, it's in black and white, and it's unashamedly political. But remember,
this category likes innovative and unusual stuff (always foreign...) , such as "Spirited Away" and "Les Triplettes de Belleville".

bisous!

Tony
(São Paulo, Brazil)

Anonymous said...

I think this year has way too many political films. Chances are only one of them are in.

I think The Kite Runner might be a critical success. Forster has yet to be acknowledge by the Academy and this might be his chance. Unless, there are too many comparisons drawn between the book and film.

After reading your predictions, you convinced me The Brave One is going to be awesome. Now, I can't wait for its release.

I don't think Marion Cotillard is in for a nod right now. She seems to be a likely choice because (1) she's a newcomer (2) she's young (3) her performance has been critically hailed...but La Vie En Rose is not a very good film.

I think Nicole Kidman has a great chance to be nominated for Margot at the Wedding. That could be just the right momentum swinging in her way.

Also, Meryl Streep is in several films this year. Do you think she has another nod in the making?

Arkaan said...

I'll defend His Dark Materials as one of the most daring, original and cathartic works of the past two decades. If they manage to make it work... Wow.

Some of the early comments have me worried though.