Thursday, March 04, 2010

Final (?) Oscar Predictions

<--- Sandra Bullock goes Na'Vi. I made this just because. What's wrong with me?

You want the final predictions, don'cha? I may panic and change one or two of these on Saturday night @ 8 PM (if I don't change anything by then, these are final final). I'm still toying with calling Meryl Streep over Sandra Bullock for example in Best Actress. That's not because I want to be different but because I genuinely feel it's possible. The only award Sandra won that Streep didn't was SAG (and Streep had just won that the year before. Were they likely to repeat? But herewith my predictions on what and who will going to win the biggest movie prize of all on Sunday night.

It's also your last 24 hours to vote on the readers polls so have at them.

And for those who asked. I have updated the pages for Supporting Actress and Lead Actress to reflect that feature y'all love so much "how did they get nominated?"

Finally, here's the Spanish animated short that I'm rooting for (and predicting) for Best Animated Short. It's called La Dama y La Muerte and it was produced by Antonio Banderas. Whaddya know? I lurve the design of the Gaston-like doctor and his identical nurses. And there's plenty of good visual jokes. Cerebrus! But, that said, the short film categories are always so tough to predict...


Andrew R. said...

In Animated Short, my favorite minor category, I'm rooting for Logorama. Lady and the Reaper is my runner-up.

Andrew R. said...

Oh, and my FINAL picks as well for who WILL win.

Picture: Hurt Locker
Director: Bigelow
Actor: Bridges
Actress: Bullock
S. Actor: Waltz
S. Actress: Mo'nique
O. Screenplay: Basterds
A. Screenplay: Up in the Air
Cinematography: Basterds
Art Direction: Avatar
Costumes: Young Victoria
Editing: Precious...J/K, Hurt Locker
Score: Up
Foreign: White Ribbon
Sound Mixing/Editing: One for Avatar, one for Locker
Visual FX: Hmmmm, toughy. (Sarcasm)
Makeup: Star Trek
Song: Crazy Heart
Animated: Up
Animated Short: Everyone except Granny O Grimm has a shot.
Documentary: The Cove
Doc Short: Rabbit ala Berlin
Live Action Short: Door

brandz said...

i just find it amazing that Meryl Streep can be ahead in your reader's poll by more than 20% and Bullock may actually win the Oscar. Bullock comes in fourth in your poll. it's just unreal. criminal, actually.

W.R. said...

Feels like you could go 100% (at least in the big 8) this year.

James T said...

The Lady and the Reaper was just lovely. The animation, the script, everything!

I kind of hated "Granny O'Grimm's Sleeping Beauty". It wasn't funny at all and someone should sue them for including "Sleeping Beauty" in the title.

With the Oscars coming later than usual, will you postpone your 2010 predictions for later than April 1st?

Anonymous said...

I'll be cheering for Avatar, I'd see that 10 more times before I'd see Hurt Locker again. It was just too amazing to not give the award to.

Wade and McKinsey said...

Nathaniel, what did you think of Logorama? Think the Academy would go for a short so profane and violent? (on a side note, Lady and the Reaper was my favorite as well)

Robert Hamer said...

@ Anon: Well, considering all the films it rips off of, you probably have already seen it AT LEAST ten times :P

adam k. said...

I predicted Gabby in the OscarWatch contest just in case it happens. I won't win by predicting Bullock or Streep just like everyone else, so I figured I might as well take a chance and have a shot at glory.

I think the Wallace & Gromit short deserves to win by a longshot. By far the funniest, and (I think) between 2 and 3 times as long as any of the others. The only way it loses is if enough voters do indeed feel "been there, done that" or that it has an unfair advantage or something AND those dissenters manage to rally behind a single contender. I just hope that contender isn't Logorama, which I found gimmicky, sophomoric, and needlessly unpleasant. Meh.

French Roast was kind of a snooze, but Lady and the Reaper and the Sleeping Beauty movie were both very good, and I'd be fine with either of them winning. I loved that bitter old hag.

I'm hoping to be really happy with the choices on Sunday. Even if Sandra wins, I'm sure her speech will be adorable, and I'll let myself enjoy it.

tony d said...

I totally feel that Streep is going to win Actress - SAG doesn't always mean a win - I don't know if Bullock has the support of the academy outside of the writer's branch. I'm still stuck on Best Picture. I've been thinking Hurt Locker, but that seems like wishful thinking when it comes down to it, I think many of us are in for a disappointment with Avatar winning

adam k. said...

Oops, I forgot OscarWatch = Awards Daily now.

Anonymous said...

i am okay with bullock winning. based on performance alone i would prefer gabby or carey, but bullock was good, i would even say really good. she nailed the character, and made you feel. is the performance revolutionary? no, but neither was julia roberts, reese witherspoon, hilary swank the sequel, halle berry, etc. the oscar has never been about the just the performance and anyone who believes it is is lying to themselves. is this right and what oscar should represent? that debatable, but it is an entirely separate conversation. based on what the oscar is now and has been for 80 years (strong performances, likable winners, career best, $$$, and career achievement) sandra has it. meryl has all the above except career best. sure meryl was aces in J&J, but i believe she could have done that in her sleep. no other actress could have done it like meryl and it is sad that meryl has to have a grand slam and not a home run to be truly appreciated, but it is the truth.

AND one more thing before anyone switches last minute predications that nathaniel has highlighted before on what puts sandra above...she is smokin hot in the blind side, the proposal, and has been on the red carpet. don't think the older academy men haven't noticed and wanted to see her up on that stage in a sexy dress...


Guy said...

"The only award Sandra won that Streep didn't was SAG (and Streep had just won that the year before. Were they likely to repeat?"

If they thought Streep was going to win the Oscar, they would have happily repeated, just as they did with Renee Zellweger a few years back. Let's not pretend that SAG voters treat their award as anything other than an Oscar bellwether. (Sigh.)

Kirby said...

So glad to see some love for "The Lady and the Reaper", far and away the best of the batch.

Amanda said...

Anna Kendrick's performance is bay far the weakest of all five nominees. It would be pathetic if she won- and even more if Mo'nique lost.

Amanda said...

I think any good young actress could have played Kendricks role just as well. Ellen Page, Carey Mulligan, Cristina Ricci, Evan Rachel Wood, Sarah Polley, Michelle Williams, maybe Keira K, even Maggie G, eventhough she may be in another age group and may be old for this role by now.

Its the role, not the performance.

(her crying breakdown was lame).

Amanda said...

By performance, and performance alone, if think Gabby deserves it. Hers was the best, in my opinion.

But I think people will rather wait and see if she's not a one hit wonder.

And unfortunatly, I dont think she is profitable enough and I dont think it will be easy for her to find new parts, no matter how talented she is and how much charisma she has- and she has loads of it.

Amanda said...

But it would definatly be one of the coolest Oscar moments ever if, in between the never ending Bullock-Streep war, Sean Penn opened the envelope and read Gabby's name.

It would be wonderful.

Fernando Moss said...

"I think any good young actress could have played Kendricks role just as well. Ellen Page, Carey Mulligan, Cristina Ricci, Evan Rachel Wood, Sarah Polley, Michelle Williams, maybe Keira K, even Maggie G, eventhough she may be in another age group and may be old for this role by now.

Its the role, not the performance."

Rumer Willis? Paris Hilton? hahaha, sorry jk...

but seriously I woudl have love to see Lindsay Lohan in that part, I think she would have beenwaaaay better than Kendrick, but somehow I have troubloe imagined that even with that role the Academy would have noticed her... or do you think they would?

mrripley said...

I am feeling the gabby love but they wanna see sandra up there,hopefully when meryl gives them another sophie's choice they will give her the gold.

Mike said...

Interesting to see you list Kendrick as the possible spoiler in supporting actress. Mo'Nique will win, but I think Gyllenhaal is the runner-up (well-liked within industry, lead role in the supporting category, Jeff Bridges, inexplicable love for film...) I would also say that I thought Kendrick's perfromance sucked and no one in their right mind would vote for it, but this is the Academy we're talking about...

Tx said...

Animated shorts is going to the Wallace and Gromit one. Logorama was pretty awesome though. Most of those predictions are sound. The Meryl justification is desperate though. I've heard more "just give it to her already" articles than I can count, and they all reek of desperation. Wait for something extraordinary from her. It'll happen eventually, no matter how unfair it might be that Meryl's held to a higher standard than just about everyone else. That's what you get for being called the greatest American living actress (and to many, best actress that ever lived). No "District 9" for editing? I think that could really upset things. I'm not expecting "The Hurt Locker" or "Avatar" to leave with more than 3 or 4 Oscars a piece. I'm picking Quentin until the end for original screenplay. Just feels right, even though I know that Mark Boal could get swept up with the rest of them.

Ryan said...

the 6 actual races left (imo)...

CINEMATOGRAPHY: "Avatar" (vs. "Hurt Locker" vs. "White Ribbon")
ACTRESS: Bullock (vs. Streep)
FOREIGN FILM: "White Ribbon (vs. "A Prophet")
SOUND: "Avatar" (vs. "Hurt Locker")
EDITING: "Hurt Locker" (vs. "Avatar")
SCREENPLAY: "Basterds" (vs. "Hurt Locker")

Sid said...

Nat, I think Meryl will win.

Or maybe I just want to predict at least one surprise -- if Streep winning will be a surprise, that is.