Tuesday, October 18, 2005
Oscar's Pre-Season in Swing
Some minor prediction shifting in all Oscar categories over at the site. That's right, the Oscar Predictions for October are up. This includes all categories including the first educated guesses on the possible Foreign Film Nominees. Major gains for Mrs Henderson Presents and Capote and dips for The Three Burials... and The Family Stone which will try to gain traction whilst the media slobbers all over King Kong and The Producers and other wannabe Christmas blockbusters.
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15 comments:
Always love you work, Nat. It's already starting to get exciting for us anxious award season watchers.
But a few comments, if I may:
-I think you're way overestimating Jarhead. As awesome as it looks, I think it'll have to be revelatory to get in over such obvious in-studio Oscarbait as Munich, Cinderella Man and (to a lesser extent) The Producers. Is buzz really "revelatory"?
-Speaking of CM, Universal is already out in full force. I highly doubt it'll get shut out.
-The reaction to Shopgirl seems way too underwhleming for Martin to get a screenplay nod. :(
-I can't really see two nods for In Her Shoes in the supporting actress category, especially with NOTHING else from the film having real potential (apart from a very longshot that is the screenplay).
-Syriana is calling itself only "suggested" by a book, and as such is going to campaign original.
-Your write-ups for Huffman and Moore seem to be reversed.
But these are the nitpicks. Overall, tremendous work and easily the best site around.
fixed. thanks
maybe i am overestimating Jarhead. BUT... i hate changing the predix so much before movies even open and we'll see when it opens. I would be shocked if it was shut out entirely though given that it looks terrific and it has a hugely impressive cast and crew.
Having seen In Her Shoes I have to agree with Gerard and don't think it will get two supporting actress noms, if any.
The screenplay is a mess. I felt manipulated instead of genuinely moved. Collette is good, as usual, but since it's basically her story she's the lead. Diaz is just along for color. MacLaine doesn't have much to do.
If the avalanche of year end films produce half the good performances expected, these two actresses will be forgotten.
Sorry for seeming negative. I appreciate all your work. Great site!!
(I also have high hopes for Jarhead... but there are clouds on the horizon.)
Oh, I definately don't think Jarhead will be shut out entirely...just don't think it'll be much of a BP contender considering the incredibly cynical of the book (which Mendes won't change) and the fact that Universal has Steven Spielberg, Ron Howard and Mel Brooks in their stable.
I do think it'll get Supporting Actor, Cinematography and Sound relatively easily.
Withs "Maybe"s Film Editing (Murch is a giant), Sound Editing(they usually toss in one "serious" film there) and Adapted Screenplay (it is a really weak category).
Sometimes the name of a film just makes me lose hope. Jarhead? Don't see it in the lineup. But maybe. And yeah, the trailer didn't seem like they were going for oscars, per se?
Is there any reliable word on whether Munich will be released this year? Is Spielberg still editing?
I do think Cinderella Man will find a way to resurge. At least for Giammatti and the score.
Scarlett Johannson, at this point, seems like the easiest call in the supp. actress category. She has SO much going for her. She's clearly the first place they'd go to reward the film after screenplay. The role will slay them. She is young and sexy. And she is overdue. Unfortunately, she didn't get that added boost from The Island doing well, but I don't think she'll need it, frankly.
I'm really excited for Brokeback Mountain. I'm starting to think that, if the stars are aligned, it could even win the big prize. I mean, what else looks like it would win? The prospect of a classic tragic love story, only with gay male leads, could actually hit the spot with oscar, don't you think? It's classic yet contemporary and topical. And they owe Ang Lee, and they know it. Plus (SPOILER ALERT!) one of the gay guys does die. That might help. Heh.
Now come on, NBR, step up...
Damn. Those spoiler warnings need to be in size 7-billion font, because I just don't react to them any more!
Rob
We may have something that happens very rarely - an all December line-up.
Just look at the month. All the King's Men, The New World, Brokeback Mountain, Munich, The White Countess, Mrs Henderson Presents, Match Point, Memoirs of a Giesha, The Producers, The Family Stone...
Add to that the buzz behemoths of Narnia and King Kong in December, and we've got an insane month ahead of us.
this soon after the last time? that would really be beating the statistics. The last time was 2002. and before that 1988.
Adam PLEASE I beg you PLEASE stop inserting these huge spoilers everywhere.
sorry I just had to said that. I love you man but those spoilers....
The two movies I am unconvinced about at this stage are Jarhead and All The King's Men.
As much as I thought Toni Collette was absolutely fabulous in In Her Shoes, I don't think the Academy will bite. Same for Shirley MacLaine. But she still has Rumor Has It, where she is apparently back to her flamboyent best. Jarhead reminds me (i wonder why?) of Three Kings... and I am NOT feeling Sean Penn's nomination at all. If it happens then that's fine but at the moment I have the feeling that (like in your negative part for him) they will take some time off from nominating him again unless he's truly brilliant.
Cinderella Man, i think, is still a viable contender in Cinematography (sepia!), score (Thomas Newman!), and the sound catagories (boxing!).
And I am gaining confidence in Brokeback's ability to score in the big catagories. Essentially because it's an epic romance of sorta. The Academy loves them. I'm still much more confident about Ang Lee's nomination than the film's.
-Glenn
Sigh... sorry... I had a warning up... it was in caps! What else can I do... that bit of info shouldn't really detract from the viewing of the film, anyway... I mean, anyone who's read the book... or gets why the story will be poignant... already knows. Who knows how much they changed, anyway?
Cinderella Man could kill the all-december lineup. I don't really feel like it will make best pic, but it certainly could if it revives.
They should've just not given Penn the oscar for Mystic River, and then they could nominate him this year...
I think a lot of people are thinking Memoirs of a Geisha will flop and not make an impact in the nominations. Has anyone considred the thought that it could be the next The Color Purple with 10+ nominations and no wins? There's a lot of similarities: adapted from a very popular literary novel, huge non-white casts, directed by a previously nominated white director. Ziyi Zhang's role is the type of women-against-the-world role that they like, and I can picture her being touted as the first Asian actress to win a lead Oscar, only to lose to a veteran that hasn't won in the lead category (say, Judi Dench?) She could definately be the next Whoopi Goldberg, with Gong Li and Michelle Yeoh filling in for Margaret Avery and Oprah Winfrey.
Then again, the same can be said of The New World.
I really hope this doesn't happen to either, and they both get some Academy love: Memoirs of a Geisha because I adore the novel and the actresses, The New World because I want a defintive Pocahontas movie. (I'm a huge fan of the animated musical, and I will never know why it's considered the start of Disney's downfall. Haven't they ever heard of Elton John and singing lions? The recently restored song "If I Never Knew You" adds a whole dimension to the third act. It's worth checking out.)
anonymous -i actually like Disney's Pocahontas a lot too. And the deleted song was always one of my favorite songs... even back then. so perhaps i should see it restored. (dvd i guess?)
i personally only want Memoirs to do well by Oscar if it's really good. i don't care about their diversity level when it comes to this (and hey, apart form acting notices, it's not like they were unkind to Crouching Tiger or Last Emperor which were asian epics as well) because if its some boring ass clunky prestige-book-on-film i don't want it taking spots from worthier entries.
I'm assuming New World will be good and worthy due to Malick. But with Marshall... well, we don't have a lot to go on.
Nat,
I promise you, you'll downgrade Mrs Henderson Presents the second you and everyone else sees it. It's a fun movie up to a point, but there's no way it's a Best Picture winner, and I very much doubt it'll even be a nominee. Wouldn't be at all surprised if Dench gets its sole nod actually.
Very nice site! » » »
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