Is Munich, Steven Spielberg's as-yet-unseen 23rd full length feature, the sure thing everyone thinks it will be with AMPAS? Let's investigate. By dropping all the numerals from his first 21 (His 22nd, War of the Worlds, can't be added as of yet being untested in Oscar waters) into my super-talented ... we discover the following.beep bop boooo bop
Dividing the 94 nominations and 29 golden boys by 21 features we see that each unquantified Spielberg feature will nab 4.5 nominations and 1.3 statues. 1.3 you ask? Which statue is that? Ummmmm... the won't tell me that but it's probably another one for John Williams, ubiquitous Spielberg composer and Oscar's most-favored child in any field, plus 1/3rd of a Sound Editing trophy. OK, well the math is not quite this simple. Munich might not get only 4 or 5 nominations and win just one trophy. If you'd like to throw in some (variables) X (expectations) ≥ you're welcome to. If you subtract all the genre stuff on which Spielberg made his name and concentrate on the more traditional Oscar routes of true stories or historical period dramas, the numbers come out like this: Munich can expect 7.8 nominations and 2 wins...and a 50/50 shot at the big prize ~ a Best Picture nomination, and a 33% shot at Best Director.
Most Likely Nominations StatisticallyScore, Cinematography, Sound, Sound Effects Editing
Least Likely Nominations Statistically
Song, Acting (sorry Bana), Screenplay
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17 comments:
i HATE maths. even in a joke. that said, munich remains a question mark for me. And very wickedly I hope it sucks because this should go down as the year of the gay cowboy, oscar or not.
speaking about iconic 2005 movie characters, i've just seen corpse bride in honor of your front page, and me loved it. burton is back!!!
I never want a movie to be bad but with Munich I either want it to be really good or really bad. Really good would be great cause, duh, it means a great movie. But really bad might mean that Spielberg will stop making movies for a while, have a rest, reevaluate his "thang" and eventually get back to what he does best.
What the bets though that Munich is too long and has a bad ending?
-Glenn
I really really think Brokeback Mountain might win best picture. I really do.
And I kind of want Munich to suck, just because it seems the most likely spoiler.
But really... I don't think it will win. Just too obvious. Plus, for some reason I was much more excited about this film (and it's oscar prospects) when it was called Vengeance. Maybe cause that's more universal and powerful as a title. But that's neither here or there, really. Regardless, I think/hope it will be another Amistad. Say, 5 or 6 nominations, one or two tech wins.
Best Pic will be Brokeback... hey, they owe Ang Lee and they know it... what has Soderbergh done lately?
So with Glenn on the Munich expectations; too long and bad ending. Not to judge it before I see the movie or anything, but Spielberg has MADE us expect these just-can't-help-himself flaws.
The next 2 months will be crucial for Brokeback (duh!), but I expect the Hollywood Foreign Press will go for it big time (they love them some epic scenery; look at Best Picture nominee The Horse Whisperer!), and if a couple of other critics groups get on board, it may be unstoppable.
Rob
There are many movies coming out before the end of the year that I'm hoping will be great, that I'm excited about seeing and want to stay excited about even after seeing.
Munich is not one of them.
Next.
You, sir, are having too much fun.
As long as Spielberg doesn't take another trophy, because A. that would be boring, and B. I really want Ang to win. Screw the rest, I know better than to ask for much, but he really deserves to, he doesn't quite go at Spielberg's furious movie-making pace, and he's actually pretty old, so you can't count on him to be around forever.
so, anyone surprised that it's only 50/50 statistically with his historical dramas? I guess as Oscar goes, 50/50 is a really good statistic though.
Adam, I find it odd that you ask what Soderbergh done lately yet don't ask it of Ang Lee. He hasn't exactly been doin much either. Granted, Lee did deserve it more than Soderbergh but Steven surely didn't make a bad winner in my books.
I still think Ang Lee has a much much better shot at Director than the movie has at Picture. Maybe a Munich/Brokeback split is in order with Picture/Director. They can reward Brokeback handsomely but not give it best picture cause that would be gross and icky for all those old heteros of the Academy. Although, you can bet that all the, ahem, non-heteros will be gunning for Brokeback all the way.
Brokeback has a lot in common with Crash actually now that I think about it. Obviously, Brokeback hasn't been released yet, but both of these movies will have very passionate fan bases that will want to see it be nominated. Whereas I think quite a few movies will fall into the "it WAS good, but..." category, which could result to them being left off.
The 50/50 thing is interesting because a lot of people just have this belief that "Oh, it's Spielberg. Give him the trophy and move on" (infact I think maybe Kris says something along those very lines on his blog) but that's really not the case.
I saw Me & You & Everyone We Know today as well as the South African Oscar nominee from this year, Yesterday. M&Y&EWK was great fun. Yesterday was pretty good as well. Great female perfs, the both of them.
-Glenn
If you do not want to know anything more relevant about Brokeback Mountain do not read this post...
The film was shown in a Festival in São Paulo - Brazil. One of the reviewers scored it 4/5 and added that the film is sensitive, brave and there are two magnificent performances in it. However, it is a sin that the screenplay denies the audience the proper emotional impact of a specific element in the third act. This one mistake is bad enough to decrease the story's depth.
???
Marcelo - Brazil.
We're denied a proper emotional impact from a specific element in the third act?
Either Ang has screwed up or the reviewer has!
Surely when ___ goes back to ___ and picks up the ___, realising that ___... Now surely THAT'S got to give us an emotional impact? I'm fully anticipating that it'll whack us across the senses with emotion!
Rob
[Spoiler free since 1999]
[Yes, The Sixth Sense]
Do not read this post if you do not want to know anything about Brokeback Mountain
I read the short-story some months ago. I believe Ang Lee would not change the story to make the film more "acceptable". The reviewer does not give details because he does not want to give anything away. I was a little bit worried when I read his small remarks on the film but I trust Mr. Lee.
Marcelo - Brazil.
Me too. Once every 2 - 3 years the most highly anticipated film of your year ends up delivering beyond even your highest expectations. I'm ready for deliverance.
Rob
It may be that Lee decided just not to show the ... er... specific thing that happened in the third act, but let it be insinuated instead. I'd be fine with that. It's a totally defensible choice.
Okay, I know what bit you're talking about.
But, in the short story wasn't the certain event also not, er, i dunno how to say it with a book. Annie didn't have a scene dedicated to that event. There, i got it.
So, it would make sense for Ang to also not put it in the film.
-GLenn
SPOILER
Glenn is right. but this whole conversation is confusing. If people are talking about 'the spoiler' the spoiler is "offscreen" in the book too.
no biggie.
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