OK. I'm changing my final predix by two categories. The first is Score. I'm going with Brokeback repetitive memorable theme instead of the Globe winner Memoirs of a Geisha. The second is one of the supporting categories; just haven't decided which one.
Er make that one category. Ch-ch-ch-ch-change. uh.
Sticking with Clooney and Weisz cuz I'm sick of thinking about it and I am SO busy with more pressing matters (like friends arriving for weekend festivities)
enjoy your Oscar parties, wherever you be celebrating.
Saturday, March 04, 2006
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13 comments:
Oh, Nathaniel. Always going with your heart over your head. Kidding, sort of. There's got to be one surprise, right?
I'm feeling that it could be Jake for Clooney (though I'm not changing my choice)-though this may be due to the wide array of Gyllenhaalics at this blog.
I think changing it to Adams may not be a bad idea. Anyone who actually saw the movie is almost guaranteed to write her name down.
First of all, Nate - I think you are way overemphasizing Hollywood's love for BBM... I don't believe Jake or score will win (in L.A. on NPR - for two months solid all you heard were FYC commercials for John William's score - GEISHA will win that award).
Second of all - I, personally, believe that this will NOT be an evening for surprises - the only exception being a possible upset by Dillon for CRASH.
I think Jake is going to take it :-)
I am sticking with Jake and the Brokeback score. No guts, no glory.
I think Adams may upset Weisz, though... I may still change that one.
Points for you for the Bowie allusion.
Did you watch the "Independent" Spirit Awards? The show was fun (as always), the winners -- not so much.
The Squid and the Whale and Me and You and Everyone We Know (I love cumbersome titles) went home empty-handed, which pisses me the fuck off.
the indie spirits have totally sold out.
they always go with the oscar nominees once those nominations are announced for the actual wins... which is they deserted their most nominated film (Squid)
(loving the new profile pic, nat btw)
I'm going with Gyllenhaal. I just don't think Brokeback is going home with no acting awards. But, it could very easily turn out that he loses and Michelle wins. Or none of them win and then they look stupid...
one thing (largely overlooked) to be said for williams is this: she could really use. rachel weisz very much looks like and, if she isn't already, will be a huge movie star. williams i think becomes a go-to supporter if she wins - think shelley winters or dianne weist or frances mcdormand. in fact, she kind of looks like a composite of those three. adams, if she wins, i think ends up a mira or marisa style footnote. i'm not so sure if there are so many movie roles out there that would suit her, tho she's still in the race methinks. she could be a hero, but just for one day.
...bad bowie ref requisite, right?
Yeah, that's right! Squid lost! I really thought screenplay would go to Baumbach. Man, that sucks. Worse than when Holofcener lost for Lovely & Amazing.
I don't get why people think Adams won't be big after this. She is pretty and talented, why won't she be able to get roles? This may go down in history as her best, but I still think she has a big career ahead of her. Why not, seriously?
I think this will be a rather predictive Oscar night, but if a surprise happens in one major category, it will be in sup actress, not sup actor, as many say. Just a hunch. I don't think they will waste the opportunity to award The Clooney in his year; however, I feel like the love for TCG may be fading away, little by little. Hope not, for I really like Weisz, but who knows?
And I totally agree with Bryan: should Amy Adams take home the Oscar tonight, I see her as the next Tomei/Sorvino.
honestly the idea of Catherine Keener surprising doesn't leave my head ever.
but it doesn't make enough sense to predict. but it it happens it will be very exciting.
i agree that weisz is the most likely frontrunner to lose. i've just never been able to decide who could take it. it really is a strong category (if williams were a bigger star i'd feel very confident) (if adams film were loved in other ways I'd feel very confident) (if keener's part was a little bigger) etc...
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