Supporting ActorPredix are updated. This race looks awfully clear. Even without the precursors. (although whenever we think we know it all: boom. some buzz bomb will drop.) For now I've got a politician, an addict, a german, a bevery hills cop, mr. angelina jolie and spider-man looking like completely viable shortlisters. Who will Rachel Weisz (last year's parallel winner) be handing the statue to?
Supporting Actress
Predix are updated. This category on the other hand: TOTALLY up in the air. Which makes it potentially very exciting (though certainly at this point less filled with star wattage) For now I've got a blocked writer, a dreamgirl, a spanish mama, a wildcard guess, and little miss sunshine herself (The Fannings: not pleased). Who will be lucky enough to smooch George Clooney (last year's parallel winner) in the Kodak Theater?
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There was a magazine article a few weeks back that said for anyone who sees Babel, it is going to be IMPOSSIBLE to not nominate Rinko Kikuchi for Babel.
Personally, I haven't seen the film yet -- but playing a rebellious deaf japanese teenager seems like a new twist on traditional oscar bait.
My predix are 3/5 with yours. About a month back I said Hudson, Breslin and Thompson (this role seems really good for her) would get in with Blunt (wild guess) and someone else I don't remember.
Supp actress really is up in the air.
My Supp actor lineup was 4/5. I had Affleck instead of Sheen and as of right now I would most definitely put in Sheen, but he's not famous at all.
I haven't read the book of Children of Men but both Caine and Moore are hardly in the movie so I doubt they'll be nommed. Although, if the category gets very weak, then Caine has a small shot I suppose, but he only really has 2 scenes.
None of the actors in your current top five in either category will be nominated, except for Jennifer Hudson, Eddie Murphy and (maybe) Emma Thompson. I think this year's acting crowd will be populated by films that are off our current radar.
there was a time when Eddie Murphy was considered due??? please tell me when that was...
of course anything can happen with the Academy, I mean Kim Catrall is a member for godsakes.
Murphy deserved a nomination -- if not a statuette -- for The Nutty Professor. I am being serious. Go back and watch it.
I'd never thought I'd say this, but I think Mark Wahlberg has a genuine chance. If The Departed does as well as most people predict then he might go along for the ride, especially if Nicholson heads off for lead. Everyone I talk to singles him out as one of their favorite things about the movie.
yeah and there was the whole Bowfinger thing too. people (including me) thought he was great in that.
jj i'm sometimes off but i have a better track record than that in October ;)
I do not mean to impugn your Oscar forecasting, NR. I just think the frontrunners have been frontrunning for sooo long (since even before this past Oscars), that we're all in a bloggy fog. Reality is much different from the blogosphere, and I think the official tallies in January will be quite different from now. Sidebar: I will eat my other shoe if Breslin is nominated (the first one goes down my throat when Streep gets a best actress nod for Prada).
the great Carmen Maura for Volver!!
I think at least one of the Babel girls will probably get into supporting actress. Hudson will get in, and I think Breslin has a strong shot, but it seems unclear until actual precursors start coming out whether people will consider her nominatable. Child actors are weird like that. But it does seem like the type of perf they'd go for. I, at least, loved her in it.
Not sure which of Blanchett's films will be her best vehicle... I see her as maybe getting a double nod, but it's really unclear which perf(s) people will rally behind. Clooney seems to think it's The Good German. Others say Notes on a Scandal since it's a co-lead. And of course Babel is the best pic hopeful. So, really hard to tell.
Two actresses who I think stand very good chances of getting recognition if the category remains this foggy are Anika Noni Rose and Emily Blunt. Both I think need globe nods to get traction... that's where there best chances are.
I think Rose should be higher in your predictions... she probably will be nominated at the globes if JHud is put in lead, and if Dreamgirls gets HUGE, she will have to be considered a threat for the other shortlists, too, even with JHud as competition (could be a CZJ/Latifah situation).
Emily Blunt is a longer shot, not being in a best pic frontrunner... but she seems like the type who the globes and/or SAGs might be inclined to nominate alongside Streep. But yeah, I think Noni Rose actually has a better shot than Emily and should be higher.
After William Hurt last year it's hardly possible to make an argument about 'too little screentime', but I'll make it anyway. There is no way Caine will get nominated for CoM. He has very few scenes, and unlike Hurt (or Judi Dench a few years back) they are in the first third of the movie, not during the emotional climax.
Furthermore I still think Nicholson will go supporting. If Murphy doesn't truly deliver in Dreamgirls, I even think he'll win it.
I loved Lola Duenas in Volver as well. And I digged Farmiga in The Departed.
Good predictions.... but I'm unsure on Breslin. really unsure.
The last Asian actor or actress nominated was, from memory, 1957. So that long dry patch might be broken this year with Rinko Kikuchi... but don't hold your breath.
I don't see Breslin making it, and I'm doubtful about Jill Clayburgh. Around this time of year there always seems to be buzz about older actresses that have been previously nommed or won: Maclaine (In Her Shoes), Leachman (Spanglish), Sarandon (Moonlight Mile or Igby Goes Down), even La Pfeiffer in Oleander... which end up with SAG or GG noms but not much else. Could Clayburgh be in this category?
Wahlberg has the best lines and got a great audience response when I saw The Departed. Nicholson could easily make lead, freeing up Wahlberg for a supporting nom (which he should have had for Huckabees, but nevermind). I also thought Farmiga was excellent in a flawed role, and may get in ala Bracco in Goodfellas.
With Prada, WTC and Prairie all finally having opened in Australia, I'm optimistic about Blunt (everyone who sees the film sees to love her) and don't think Gyllenhaal or Bello have much chance for WTC (bleugh, whatta bad film and what thin roles). Don't rule out Streep for a double nom, would be great to also see her recognised in Prairie - she owns the screen when she's on it, and it's a great contrast to Prada.
What about Sigourney Weaver (Snowcake)? Am I missing something? Why is no one predicting her AT ALL? I personally think she's a threat for the win.
Juliette Binoche, Abigail Breslin, Emily Blunt and Emma Thompson round out my top five. I'm just not feeling Dreamgirls, and especially not JHud.
to dl --i think no one has been predicting Snowcake because news of its release has been so vague or nonexistent and around about this time of year if things aren't opening or promoting themselves people assume they got bumped to the following year.
to stephen --clayburgh is no longer predicted. And Re: Wahlberg. He is fun in the movie but he wass also great and an audience and critical fav in I Heart Huckabees and that got him approximately nowhere. I'm thinking traditionalist s like Oscar voters will need him to do something traditionally baity before they realize he's been a good actor for about a decade now.
to Mikkel -Nicholson as lead is what the studio has already announced. they've even stated they might put Damon and DiCaprio as supporting. it's the old category fraud rearing its head again.
to adam k --i highly doubt Blanchett can get a double nod. I think they don't really love her all that much. it's a shirley maclaine type of situation. Sure she's been nominated and won but think of how many times they've passed her over and it's obvious she's not a true favorite.
Re: Breslin. supporting actress is historically the category most likely to favor children. And it's pretty common there. (Dakota hates us right now for bringing up this FACT)
to JJ --i'd argue that no one has been frontrunning for a long time. The only people who talk about this all year are Oscar obsessives. I think the Oscar voters start thinking about this right about now.
If Streep can get nominated for Music of the Heart, Prada (which will win her the Globe) the second biggest hit of her career should be a piece of cake.
and why do people doubt Breslin again? This is the category that most favors children with only one major player thus far and the big sleeper hit of the year? LMS that some prognosticators (not really me) think might even get a BP nod.
I thought Prada was THE biggest hit of Streep's career. Using just hard box office $. Which of her films has made more?
That said, I am starting to doubt whether she'll actually win the globe. I of course would love her to, but remember the old golden (globe) rule: when a musical wins, its leading lady wins. Always (assuming it has a leading lady). I think the globe is going to Beyoncé.
Think I'm crazy?
Exhibit A: Frances McDormand in Fargo, now accepted as one of THE great perfs of all time, LOSES the first major competitive contest of the year (globe) to Madonna in Evita.
Exhibit B: Meryl Streep herself in Postcards from the Edge, IMO her greatest comic perf and one of her best ever, with singing to boot, LOSES the globe to Julia Roberts in Pretty Woman.
Exhibit C: Even though CZJ is the true musical talent in Chicago and was all the rage, she LOSES to co-star Renée Zellweger who is the film's true lead. Renée also beats out critical favorite Maggie Gyllenhaal.
Conclusion: This category has the tendency to honor pop superstars and musical lead actresses even when they totally don't deserve it. Plus, Beyoncé actually looks really good in her movie. Combine that with the fact that Streep is not really a true lead in Prada, which came out many months ago, and I say Beyoncé takes the prize. Doesn't mean Meryl won't be nommed for SAG and oscar or that Beyoncé will be, but there you go.
I'd love to be wrong, but I smell a globe for Beyoncé.
Re: Streep. Prada is the biggest hit of her career if you don't adjusted for inflation.
if you adjust, Kramer vs. Kramer (her first Oscar win) is still #1 --in the $200 million range I believe.
Stephen G,
Haing S. Ngor was nominated for and won Best Supporting Actor for The Killing Fields in 1985. But he had the PR-advantage of actually having lived through the Khmer Rouge, which the film portrayed.
As far as acting nominations for Asians does Ken Watanabe ring a bell?
Don't rule out the possibility that Jack'll go to bat for Leo, in the Best Actor category. He's one of the most highly respected thesps in Hollywood, as a smart, conscientious young actor. Also, lest we forget, Jack's is one of the most divisive perfs of the year-- it's Leo who received the unaminous praise. Ruling him out simply because Jack's "more AMPAS friendly" is a mistake, IMO. He's certainly more likely than Ryan Gosling, at least, regardless of what the critics think.
Also, it's not confirmed that they'll campaign Jack lead. Anything can happen between now and nomination morning; like, for example, winning critics awards in supporting. Despite their tendency to follow like sheep, it's the Academy who determines category placement, not the studio.
scc -agreed. anything can still happen. which is why everyone is still in red --in play but no sure thing.
i don't agree that Leo is more likely than Ryan... especially with Jack in his way. Leo, however well regarded the performance (and I also think it's a fine one) is not going to be winning the critics and breakthrough prizes that are probably in store for Ryan Gosling ... which will obviously help his buzz.
Ryan's big issue is the small film and whether or not he'll be shaking hands for AMPAS affection.
Having actually seen Babel, I can confirm that Rinko Kikuichi is out of this world... BUT -- and I admit my own latinidad may be a little biased here -- so is Adriana Barraza, who has not garnered much press. Her role is far larger than that of bigger name Garcia Bernal (who, ironically enough, plays her family member here, just like he did in Amores perros!), but there seems to be little buzz on a campain for her, which would be well-deserved.
If he receives the same type of praise for Blood Diamond, he could be kind of hard to ignore (of course, that's not a given). I anticipate they'll be split between Whitaker, Gosling and DiCaprio, and possibly Peter O'Toole (one or more groups may want to get the ball rolling). I don't expect anyone to steamroll.
Kris at InContention has been predicting awards love for Barraza, btw. So, yes, she's in the fray.
Oops, I meant to say Asian WOMAN. My bad.
You could argue that Shoreh Aghdashloos nomination a few years back was for an asian woman.
I think everybody is overlookig SHARON STONE. BOBBY previews are very positive and most of people who watched the film spent very good words about her performance, who could be considered supporting. I'm surprised there hasn't been a great buzz so far.
Mirko S.
Sharon Stone will be nominated for Bobby. The buzz is already building up. She´s being singled out in most of the reviews and they usually nominate one player in a big ensemble. Matt Dillon and Tom Cruise in Magnolia are two examples.
mr.goodbar
Can everyone please stop handing out nominations to Dreamgirls! That film has not even been screened, and yet everyone is already declaring its cast and crew as winners in major categories.
Rinko Kikuchi delivers the most heartfelt performance in Babel. She infuses her character with such a deep sense of pathos and vulnerability. The final scene with her is extraordinarily touching, and I can only hope that the Academy will recognize her work. It is really a performance of understated brilliance.
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