For those 100+ brave souls who joined that ridiculously early Best Actress Psychic Oscar Contest months ago I've updated the point totals here. Manuel and Gerard are tied for the lead currently. Every contestant has at least one point.Since we last spoke in late April, the following women have gained points: Molly Shannon hosted SNL (+2), Julie Christie, Angelina Jolie & Marion Cotillard's Oscar bids for Away From Her, A Mighty Heart and La Vie En Rose have opened (+1 each) and so far, given the reviews they've all got something to work with for their Oscar campaigns. Jane Fonda, Lindsay Lohan, Ashley Judd, and Keri Russell also opened their films and nabbed a box office point (+2 each). Unfortunately the Cannes festival gave no candidate any points and we've yet to have point-giving magazine covers for any of your picks. Three months down, seven left to go.
Remember, we're only talking about those that were predicted to be Oscar nominated next January by at least one of our participants --thus no points for Katherine Heigl (Knocked Up) since no one predicted her. Once again the current totals.
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12 comments:
Nath,
How many points would you have If you were at the contest???
Agreed -- Nathaniel should tally his points, too.
Did anyone pick Lindsay? She was on the cover of Maxim..lol.
Since it's summer and I'm bored....
If anyone picked Heigl, I bet they would have led...She was on the cover on Entertainment Weekly (That's a +3)...Her film crossed the 27 million dollar mark (That's a +2)...People's 50 most beautiful (+2)...85% or higher on the TomatoMeter at Rotten Tomatoes as of January 1st, 2007 (The film has a 92%---+2)...
That's a total of 9 points if you picked Katherine Hiegl (wouldn't be surprised with a GG nom...which would add 10 more points...LOL...And not to meantion the Entertainer of the year at EW or "Great Performances" section of their Best of 2007 issue OR chosen as the "FYC" but not actually predicted Oscar candidate in the Oscar Prediction issue (which would probably add 6 points)...If that all happens and you would have chose Hiegl you would have recieved 25 points...That's how bored I am...
i would have 5 points but of course at this juncture it doesn't really matter since almost nothing has happened yet ;)
Why do the people who predicted Johansson and Kidman have so many points? Is it just that they've been on magazine covers? Everyone knew Johansson and Kidman would be on magazine covers. Doesn't mean they're getting nominated for oscar...
Ditto Katherine Heigl, who still is never getting nominated, GG or no.
it was the SNL and the most beautiful lists
When did Lohan, Judd and Russell's films pass the 27 million mark? Did I misunderstand or should they have only recieved 1 point for box office?
Each of them got 1 point for box office, and 1 for their respective films opening. So 2 in total.
So wait...Then if someone had chosen Heigl they would have had 10 points, but 9 and would have been auto. in the lead...I'm soo bored...lol...
I took a quick peek at Box Office Mojo (www.boxofficemojo.com) and noted what is going on as of now with the domestic (and foreign) revenue for the three of the top six consensus picks that have opened to date, in millions of dollars American:
"Away From Her"... 4.3 (5.6)
"A Mighty Heart"... 4.0 (n/a)
"La Vie En Rose"... 3.9 (57.0)
Admittedly, "A Mighty Heart" has just opened, but this is still a frighteningly light number for anything featuring Angelina Jolie at this point in her publicity-soaked career. And at fewer than 120 screens, "La Vie En Rose" is looking to receive play typical of art house films in the domestic market.
My point (yes, I do have one) is this - does it appear that any of these three will obtain enough traction to contend for a Best Actress nomination next February? A broader question: what, in the current marketplace, would be the minimum domestic take a film needs to score to maintain visible credibility with the acting branch of AMPAS?
well, as i pointed out in the original actress contest the average gross of BEST ACTRESS nominees prior to nomination morning is something like $27 million but that's usually because there's one very big hit in the mix. Often the films aren't even in the 8 figure range. so, yes, pretty low threshold required for the actresses. which means that none of these women are out of it.
JOLIE is most in danger (box office wise) if you consider that she's the only one who looks like she's flopping if she has a low number.
and that number for LA VIE EN ROSE is actually pretty spectacular. Very few foreign films ever cross into eight figures and it looks likely here.
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