- Peter Knegt, IndieWire
- Guy Lodge, In Contention
- Karina Longworth, LA Weekly
- Tim Robey, The Telegraph
- Nathaniel Rogers (c'est moi), The Film Experience
- Sasha Stone, Awards Daily
The six of us have already begun our e-mail volleying... but if you have any questions, you're dying to ask, now would be the time in the comments. I might incorporate some of your inquiries in the chatter. The first day's conversation will go up later tonight.
P.S. If you've been missing Joe & Katey, my Oscar podcast buddies, fear not: The new one will be up in the next few days. We're finally (almost) back... I'm just working on the editing. It's only 11 days until the big night. There's sure a lot left to cover.
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24 comments:
In an alternate world where Morgan Freeman didn't win for Million Dollar Baby, would he be this year's favorite for Lead Actor? For some reason I always think about this.
Love this lineup and have been waiting for this all season!
I love this lineup too. I didn't remember this feauture and I think it's a very good idea.
I would like to ask: Dies any of you think this year's nominees show a change (even a slight one) in the Academy's thinking?
PS: I'm afraid Tim will be a bitch :p
That's a very solid group of sophisticated tastemakers you've corralled, Nat. I look forward to the inevitable disillusionment with public opinion and Oscar pandering.
I get sentimental for the Oscar Symposium. It's how I first discovered the Film Experience.
1. Following up on BrianZ: In an alternate world where Helen Mirren hadn't won for The Queen, might we be taking her more seriously for her Big Acting in "The Last Station"?
2. Why isn't Meryl a more secure front-runner this year? Is it all about Sandy? Or is there some sense that Meryl's Julia is a wee bit lightweight and (dare I say it?) cartoony?
3. And speaking of "The Last Station," why can't Christopher Plummer knock a chip out of Christoph Waltz's front-runner status? Why can't anyone? Waltz's dominance this year is my big head-scratcher. Yes, he's good, but he's such an outsider to the Hollywooders...
Are the nominations for Matt Damon and Stanley Tucci evidence of a self-fulfilling prophecy? Oscar bloggers and such since this time last year appointed them to be hot topics and they seemed to always be predicted. Then their movies opened and nobody I know or heard of thought the actual performances were that great. Yet they get nominated.
Quentin Tarentino said he was voting for either Sidibe or Mulligan. Will more voters follow him? Is there a Streep vs. Bullock fatigue among voters.
peter is cute!
if Sandra Bullock and Meryl Streep split votes, who would upset? would Gabby Sidibe and Carey Mulligan also split votes? Why do we keep scratching our heads over the Best Actress race if Sandra Bullock has won the Golden Globe and the SAG?
The Best Actress rundown at In Contention has got me thinking. If An Education's Jenny had been 180 lbs, not very pretty and wore glasses like the real Lynn Barber and the persons involved had not looked like the beautiful people as portrayed in the movie but real post war types, would it still be an Oscar Contender?
1. Most definitely. Giving a veteran actress like Helen Mirren a first Oscar would have trumped all of these other concerns -- the newbies would have had to wait for later opportunities/nods, and there wouldn't even be these dumb Meryl/Sandra wars, b/c both of them would lose handily to La Mirren. She would have been the only one in that scenario to combat all of this "box office = awards" fervor for Sandra and stave off Meryl for another year too.
2. A combination of "J&J" being a middling film, Meryl's role not having the dramatic heft that normally secures Oscar wins, the standard that Streep has set previously that even Streep can't seem to top, comedy bias, single nominee, and Sandra having the biggest box office hits of her career (or any female EVER for that matter) with a BP nod to support her.
3. Christoph Waltz was fierce in "Inglourious Basterds." That and the Tarantino brand are doing all the work for him to combat his "outsiderness," and honestly, I think that's a good thing, instead of only the old career achievement award veterans winning here, but a performance that's so undeniably great that it has to be awarded regardless of the unknown status of the actor that gave it.
What are the chances of any of this year's acting nominees making it back to the Kodak in the future?
Did the release date impact The Last Station positively or negatively? I mean obviously Mirren and Plummer got nominations and that's partly because it came out so late so their names were fresh, but I feel the movie could've done MORE this award season if it had been release earlier. At the very least, it could've gotten McAvoy at least SOME attention. Maybe.
Also can you discuss what the heck happened to 500 Days of Summer? ZERO nominations. Unbelievable.
How do we feel about the possibility of a Adrien Brody-type scenario occurring where no one can decide between Sandra Bullock and Meryl Streep and an outlier wins.
And...if that occurs, does that benefit Mulligan or Sidibe (assuming that Mirren isn't a factor)?
Nick,
What do you guys make of Carey Mulligan's BAFTA win? They can't be outright dismissed since some of their members overlap with the Academy and remember, they did correctly foretell Marion Cotillard's victory (after Julie Christie won the SAG and the Globe Drama), not to mention Tilda Swinton's genuinely surprising win (no other major precursor had predicted her). Is Mulligan then the best chance to beat Bullock, and not Streep? Or did she only win the BAFTA because Bullock's film wasn't eligible (and in which case then, Meryl Streep's chances might be even smaller than we think)?
Two questions:
1. If Swinton hadn't won two years ago, would we have seen her nominated this year? Does she have enough mainstream cache to have gotten a Julia nomination?
2. With three categories basically sewn up, who is the actual second place in Best Actor, S. Actor, and S. Actress? I mean, the obvious choices would be Firth, Kendrick, and Harrelson, but I think you could make a case for Renner, Clooney, Farmiga, Gyllenhaal, Plummer, and Tucci-it'd be an interesting conundrum.
Can you try to discuss these things:
1. Who were the likely 6th place finishers in each acting category?
2. What's the chance of people getting tired of the Sandra-Meryl showdown and voting for someone else? Let's be honest... neither one of them should even be in the top 5.
3. What's the weakest performance in each category?
Of the 'major' categories, where are we most likely to see an upset? any?
Will Mo'nique have an acting career after this? (Doubt it.)
Do you think Plummer is going to get an Honorary Award soon despite this being his first nomination?
Why are so many people first time nominees or previous winners? The only ones who are neither: Jeff Bridges, Woody Harrelson, and to an extent Matt Damon. (Good Will Hunting Screenplay Oscar.)
Can you all form a coherent plot for a vehicle for Peter O'Toole and Christopher Plummer to star in together? It's sort of my fantasy. I want them both Oscared before they die. SO much work, such enormous contributions to the cinema. I was about to say that Elizabeth Taylor should co-star, until I remembered she's sort of beyond acting at this point.
What film or films do wish had been nominated for best film that weren't? I'm hoping for some less obvious choices.
If Bridges, Waltz and Mo'Nique weren't in the running this year, who do you think would win in their categories?
Even though I'm not gutsy enough to predict anyone else in the category, I don't think that Waltz is a lock in to win Supporting Actor.
For the past three years, this category has gone to someone who had been nominated for at least one Academy Award before that year (if you include Clooney who was nominated for multiple awards in 2005, you could stretch back to 2003). Even though "the Norbit factor" no doubt played into the 2006/2007 race, this may have been an additional casualty to Eddie Murphy that year.
I think Woody Harrelson is a major threat to take home Best Supporting Actor. He's be nominated before, and his comeback is easily comparable to (but not as big as the one of) Robert Downey, Jr. last year.
I still THINK that Waltz will win, but I'm NOT fully CONVINCED. What are everyone's thoughts on this?
Also, am I crazy for thinking that Gabourey Sidibe could pull an upset for Best Actress?
Julian. Are you crazy? Yes.
but it's fun to dream about such things.
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