Sunday, December 13, 2009

Foolish Golden Globe Predictions

Best Picture Drama
  • The Hurt Locker
  • Inglourious Basterds
  • The Last Station
  • Precious
  • Up in the Air
The Globes sometimes throw in really interesting critical darlings that don't have much of a shot at Oscar (like Mulholland Drive or Eastern Promises) and sometimes they latch on to brand new movies that nobody cares about the next day (The Great Debaters) so, really, who the hell knows?!? Which is why I'm just tossing up my hands and predicting The Last Station. But honestly it feels like there's about 12 pictures that might be nominated. You could even see The Road surprising (they have a documented thing for Viggo) The reason I'm ignoring Avatar is that it just barely started screening. I don't know when the HFPA starting voting but the BFCA ballots, for example, were due on Saturday, roughly 36 hours after the first Avatar screenings... at least here in NYC. And based on when the online reports starting pouring in I suspect LA wasn't able to see Avatar much earlier. I know for certain from speaking to critics from various voting bodies that some of them had to turn in ballots before Avatar had ever screened.

Best Picture Comedy/Musical
  • (500) Days of Summer
  • It's Complicated
  • Julie & Julia
  • Nine
  • A Serious Man
There are several ways this could go. I'm not sure why I'm ignoring The Proposal, The Hangover or In the Loop. Must my predictions make sense? Back off! I wanted to throw caution to the wind and stick Sherlock Holmes in there but I couldn't decide what to spurn. It is brand new and they're sometimes totally in-the-moment. I'm really rooting for (500) Days to win attention outside of indie type prizes and if it's going to it starts here. I'm still surprised it didn't blossom into a bigger hit with the public.

Best Director

  • Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
  • Clint Eastwood, Invictus
  • Rob Marshall, Nine
  • Jason Reitman, Up in the Air
  • Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds
They like "name" directors so I'm throwing Eastwood in even though I'm (foolishly) not predicting Invictus for a spot on their BP list.

Best Actress, Drama
  • Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
  • Helen Mirren, The Last Station
  • Carey Mulligan, An Education
  • Gabourey Sidibe, Precious
  • Hilary Swank, Amelia
I'm throwing Swank in instead of Abbie Cornish (Bright Star) because I'm a masochist and sometimes the Globes truly punish me for loving them as I do. It's like they're continually daring me to break up with them. Think of all those years they stayed devoted to my other nemesis the Zeéeeee!

there's probably only room for one of these guys... which?

Best Actor, Drama
  • Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
  • George Clooney, Up in the Air
  • Colin Firth, A Single Man
  • Morgan Freeman, Invictus
  • Tobey Maguire, Brothers
I suspect there'll be one big surprise here. So I went with Maguire in Brothers since I did see a gazillion HFPA voters fawning all over him at a Brothers event. I'm rooting for rising dependable thespians like Jeremy Renner in The Hurt Locker or Sam Rockwell in Moon to surprise here but I suspect the Globes obvious preference for household names means that we'll hear one of these three names called: Tobey, Viggo (The Road) or Johnny (Public Enemies) when the nominations are announced tomorrow. Am I crazy?

Best Actress, Comedy

  • Marion Cotillard, Nine
  • Zooey Deschanel, (500) Days of Summer
  • Michelle Pfeiffer, Chéri
  • Meryl Streep, It's Complicated
  • Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia
Common wisdom has it that the Best Actress in a Musical or Comedy Globe has been narrowed down to a double dose of La Streep, "Luisa Contini", and a certain resurgent romcom queen leaving very little room -- 1 spot actually -- for anyone else. So the Globes are going to have to choose between big stars of the moment like Amy Adams or indie darlings like Zooey or fall back on old favorites like a Sarah Jessica Parker or a Michelle Pfeiffer. At this point nobody is really talking about Chéri but it might (very tentative might) not be wise to count Pfeiffer out, even without the schmoozing factor that can help you secure a Globe nod. "Why?" You ask wisely in an already crowded field "One reason" I respond. "Globe history."


There was a time where she could do no wrong with them: she was nominated six consecutive times for Best Actress (1989-1994) a feat that, as far as I recall, has never been matched. Not even by Meryl Streep (who has far more nominations in total --23!-- but not consecutively for best actress in a motion picture). On the other hand: They passed Michelle over when she really needed them for White Oleander (2002) in favor of a totally throwaway performance (Cameron Diaz in Gangs of New York) so 1994 may well be ancient history for which they have no nostalgia whatsoever. To make a long story short: I'm being silly and guessing that they ignore Bullock (who they can nominate elsewhere in drama) and go for a former flame. Hooray, wishful thinking!

Best Actor Comedy
  • Bradley Cooper, The Hangover
  • Matt Damon, The Informant!
  • Daniel Day-Lewis, Nine
  • Robert Downey Jr., Sherlock Holmes
  • Joseph Gordon-Levitt, (500) Days of Summer
I'm sure I'm forgetting someone. Why else would this one seem so easy?

Best Supporting Actress

  • Mariah Carey, Precious
  • Penélope Cruz, Nine
  • Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
  • Julianne Moore, A Single Man
  • Mo'Nique, Precious
I know, I know... but it would be rather like the Globes to embrace a huge pop star that Oscar won't go for so I'm saying the surprise is Carey in Precious. Look, unlike many prognosticators I don't care too much about my success ratio. I'm way more interested in teasing out the 'what if' possibilities. And they've previously nominated Beyoncé, Courtney Love and Madonna so why not risk it?

Best Supporting Actor
  • Alec Baldwin, It's Complicated
  • Matt Damon, Invictus
  • Alfred Molina, An Education
  • Christopher Plummer, The Last Station
  • Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
If there's a surprise omission here I think we might see, or rather, not see Alfred Molina. We've been taking his candidacy for granted. The Globes might say we've overestimated his Oscar chances. I also wonder if they might shove Baldwin into the lead actor comedy category.

Still more...

Screenplay: An Education, Inglourious Basterds, The Last Station, Precious, Up in the Air
Animated Feature: Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs, Coraline, Fantastic Mr. Fox, Ponyo, Up
Song: "Weary Kind" Crazy Heart, "I See in Color" Precious, "Cinema Italiano" Nine, "Take it All" Nine, "All is Love" Where the Wild Things Are
Score: Avatar, Coco Avant Chanel, The Informant!, The Princess and the Frog, Up

Those final ones are all kind of tossed off. Predicting is exhausting and tomorrow it's obsolete anyway. Stay tuned.

More would be Globe prophets...
And the Winner Is... predicts a shutout for The Hangover
Oscars Latin predicts... Ryan Reynolds for The Proposal (!)
Abzee predicts... Michelle Pfeiffer for Chéri
Crumb by Crumb sees snubs for both Precious and An Education in Best Picture

48 comments:

Anonymous said...

Cameron probably has enough pull that plenty of people will nominate AVATAR without having seen it. I'm sure that's happened in the past. No reason it wouldn't again.

João Daniel Oliveira said...

Adam Sandler as the lead of Funny People,for sure.

Anonymous said...

if you're forgetting somebody must be Michael Stuhlbar for A Serious Man.

I know Hangover was a huge hit and all, but several others have failed to be nominated being much bigger stars with movies that while not that big of a hit were hit enough: Jack Black and Nacho Libre, Mike Myers and Austin Powers, Ben Stiller in Mary or Tropic Thunder, and many more.

The tend to nominate a lot of critical darlings from comedies in the Best Actor category, their support for broad comedies with not that much critical support are usually in the Best Actress category: SJP in Family Stone, Goldie in the one with Susan Sarandon, Helen Mirren in Calendar Girls...I can only recall two times when this didn't happen: SJP in the Sex movie and Reese in Alabama.

A lot of people are predicting Cooper for Hangover and Reynolds for Proposal, but I'll bet they got with Stuhlbarg before they go with Cooper.

Also, taking Sandra off both lists is just silly. Put her a least in Comedy, you might be Pfeiffer's biggest supporter, but Sandra will get in before she does.

NATHANIEL R said...

um... i didn't take Sandra off both lists. I left her on there for The Blind Side.

Michael said...

I'm thinking that Kidman could get in for Nine. Not only because they loved her but also cause she's playing a star in Nine. Yes, I saw the movie and no she didn't deserve the nomination but remember last year in the supporting actor category there were 3 WTF's?!

Michael said...

Oh and Zach Galifanakis should be in the running for Best supporting Actor. If Tom Cruise and Robert Downey Jr could both get in without their movies being nommed so can Galifanakis.

Hayden said...

You're predicting Actress, Supporting Actor, and Screenplay for An Education but not Best Picture? It's not like the Globes haven't embraced six nominees in this category before, and I think its chances are better than The Last Station's. It's also more typically Globesy than The Hurt Locker.

Alex in Movieland said...

really, now. 0 nominations for The Lovely Bones?! Nathaniel, be objective! :) they love Peter Jackson. he was even nominated for King Kong. and lately more and more people have come to cheer the movie (Sasha Stone, Kris Tapley, etc).

Not even Stanley Tucci? a 2 time GG winner?

Not Saoirse Ronan? cause they were the 1st among the very few to nominate her for Atonement before the big Oscar break.

maybe not Susan Sarandon? their 8 time nominee?

hmmm

NATHANIEL R said...

why anyone would cheer THE LOVELY BONES at this point, when Jackson has been so rewarded in the past and there are dozens of superior movies that could use the help is beyond me.

but maybe you're right. maybe the HFPA will go for it. Like i said. it's tough to say with them. I mean if you look back at their picture lists over the years it's often very surprising.

Tom said...

What a fun piece! Thanks, Nathaniel.

Hayden said...

I guess it's just confusing to me that An Education is currently #5 on your Oscar top 10 but it can't even crack the top 5 in Drama.

Agustin said...

having diane kruger announcing the nominees with john krasinki and justin timberlake probably means she's nominated in supporting..
or maybe it means Inglorious will have a shit load of nominations..
either one..

Alex said...

I'm thinking Robert De Niro gets into Best Actor (Comedy) for "Everybody's Fine."

I wasn't sure whether to predict Pfeiffer in Comedy or Drama. I would've picked Comedy, but I also would've placed "Inglourious Basterds" there too...

steolicious said...

Bestes Drama
01. Up in the Air
02. The Hurt Locker
03. Inglorious Basterds
04. Precious
05. Invictus
06. The Messenger
07. An Education
08. The Road
09. Bright Star
10. A Single Man
11. Brothers
12. Avatar
13. The Lovely Bones
14. Amelia
15. The White Ribbon
16. Stae Of Play

Beste Komödie / Musical
01. Nine
02. The Last Station
03. A Serious Man
04. It´s Complicated
05. (500) DAYS OF SUMMER
06. The Informant!
07. Julie & Julia
08. Hangover
09. Brüno
10. The Men Who Stare at Goats

Bester Schauspieler Drama
01. George Clooney - Up In The Air
02. Morgan Freeman - Invictus
03. Jeff Bridges - Crazy Heart
04. Colin Firth - A Single Man
05. Jeremy Renner - The Hurt Locker
06. Viggo Mortensen - The Road
07. Johnny Depp - Public Enemies
08. Hal Holbrook - That Evening Sun
09. Ben Whisaw - Bright Star
10. Russel Crowe - Stae Of Play
11. Mark Wahlberg - The Lovely Bones

Bester Schauspieler Komödie / Musical
01. Matt Damon - The Informant
02. Daniel-Day-Lewis - Nine
03. Alec Baldwin - It´s Complicated
04. Sacha Baron Coen - Brüno
05. Joseph Gordon-Levitt - (500) DAYS OF SUMMER
06. Brad Pitt - Inglorious Basterds
07. Hangover - Bradly Cooper
08. Peter Sarsgaard - An Education
09. Michael Stuhlbarg - A Serious Man
10. Larry David - Whatever Works

Beste Schauspielerin Drama
01. Carey Mulligan - An Education
02. Gabourey Sidibe - Precious
03. Saoirse Ronan - The Lovely Bones
04. Hilary Swank - Amelia
05. Sandra Bullock - The Blinde Side
06. Abbie Cornish - Bright Star
07. Charlotte Gainsbourgh - Antichrist
08. Natalie Portman - Brothers
09. Charlize Theron - The Road
10. Tilda Swinton - Julia
11. Penélope Cruz - Broken Embraces

Beste Schauspielerin Komödie / Musical
01. Meryl Streep - Julie & Julia
02. Helen Mirren - The Last Station
03. Michelle Pfeiffer - Cheri
04. Marion Cotillard - Nine
05. Zooey Deschanel - (500) DAYS OF SUMMER
06. Meryl Streep - It´s Complicated
07. Sandra Bullock - The Proposal
08. Evan Rachel Wood - Whatever Works


Beste Nebendarstellerin
01. Mo'Nique - Precious
02. Anna Kendrick - Up In The Air
03. Vera Farmiga - Up In The Air
04. Julianne Moore - A Single Man
05. Samatha Morton - The Messenger
06. Judi Dench - Nine
07. Penélope Cruz - Nine
08. Melanie Laurent - Inglourious Basterds
09. Sigourney Weaver - Avatar
10. Patricia Clarkson - Whatever Works
11. Susan Sarandon - The Lovely Bones

Bester Nebendarsteller
01. Christoph Waltz - Inglorious Basterds
02. Matt Damon - Invictus
03. Christopher Plummer - The Last Station
04. Stanley Tucci - The Lovely Bones
05. Woody Harrleson - The Messenger
06. Tobey Maguire - Brothers
07. Christian McKay - Me And Orson Welles
08. Anthony Mackie - The Hurt Locker
09. Alfred Molina - An Education
10. Robert Duvall - The Road
11. Steve Martin - It´s Complicated

Beste Regie
01. Jason Reitman - Up In the Air
02. Rob Marshall - Nine
03. James Cameron - Avatar
04. Kathryn Bigelow - The Hurt Locker
05. Lee Daniels - Precious
06. Clint Eastwood - Invictus
07. Quenin Tarantino- Inglorious Basterds
08. Jane Campion - Bright Star
09. Michael Haneke - The White Ribbon
10. Lone Scherfig - An Education

Bestes Drehbuch
01. Jason Reitman - Up In the Air
02. Anthony Minghella - Nine
03. Geoffrey Fletcher - Precious
04. Quenin Tarantino- Inglorious Basterds
05. Scott Neustadter - 500 Days Of Summer
06. Nick Hornby - An Education
07. Jane Campion - Bright Star
08. Anthony Peckham - Invictus
09. Michael Haneke - The White Ribbon
10. James Cameron - Avatar
11. Mark Boal - The Hurt Locker
12. Fran Walsh - The Lovely Bones

Bester Animationsfilm
01. Up
02. Coraline
03. The Princess and the Frog
04. Fantastic Mrs. Fox
05. Ponyo
06. A Christmas Carol
07. 9
08. Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs
09. Ice Age III
10. Monsters vs. Aliens

NATHANIEL R said...

Hayden -- but the Oscars and the Globes don't really operate in tandem like that. so i don't think its' all that weird (though obviously they might really like it. i'm just guessing ;))

I mean NOBODY thought Eastern Promises or The Great Debaters or Bobby were in the hunt for a Best Picture nod with Oscar and yet they showed up on the Globe list.

Alex in Movieland said...

Just like the previous Alex, I am also thinking De Niro for Everybody's Fine. instead of the Hangover dude..

adri said...

Someone else mentioned that the Globes can sometimes categorize oddly. That "Crazy Heart" is like "Walk the Line" and might be considered in the musical/comedy section, and that "Up in the Air" might also be in comedy (like "Juno") rather than Drama.

IF SO - then you've got Bridges and Clooney in Comedy/Musical. Add Joseph Gordon Levitt, Daniel Day Lewis and one other (I'd guess Ryan Reynolds). Then there's plenty of room in Drama for all sorts of picks.

And Best Supporting Actress has looked kind of dull for weeks. Maybe the Globes might go either more European (Melanie Laurent, Diane Kruger in IB) or name/sexy, like Emily Blunt in "Sunshine Cleaning" or Rosamund Pike in "An Education" or Maggie Gyllenhaal in "Crazy Heart".

erica said...

Jude Law for Sherlock Holmes !

Alex said...

I could also maybe see Rosamund Pike sneaking in the way Ralph Fiennes did last year.

Are we sure Pfeiffer was placed in Comedy at the Globes?

rmeek said...

omg. Michelle Pfeiffer is NOT getting nominated for a Golden Globe or any other award for that matter. please put it to rest.

Michael said...

I agree with Hayden and I def think that An Education is getting a nom for Best Picture, Drama.

Hilary Swank said...

Oh, Nate. You shouldn't have. *blushes*

The Know Nothing Know It All said...

@Joao Daniel Oliveira...

Adam Sandler for "Funny People?" None of Judd Apatow's movies have gotten Golden Globe love. Zero. Do you really feel like they're going to acknowledge what has been his worst-reviewed film?

@Nathaniel...I know you didn't acknowledge it, but I agree with you about the omission of Woody Harrelson in supporting for "The Messenger." It's the "Frozen River," "Half Nelson" thing all over again. He'll probably be nominated for nominated for an Oscar, but the film is just too small for the Hollywood Foreign Press Association. Sharp predictions for the most part.

Question to put out there...is Michelle Monaghan officially done? I keep expecting her name to pop up somewhere, not because she was great, but because it's so manufactured for underdog awards traction. I guess the lack of recognition at the Indie Spirits was a death knell.

rosengje said...

I'm thinking that the big surprise will be the performance of The Road. TWC and the HFPA have a long history and they love them some Viggo. I wouldn't be surprised at all if he made it into Best Actor-Drama and the movie got a Best Picture nomination.

Rich Aunt Pennybags said...

Where's Woody Harrelson? I know that there was category confusion before, but at Gold Derby, Tom O'Neil wrote that he is now in supporting again where he belongs.

Also, if you don't want to put in Sandra Bullock, what about Renee Zellweger in My One and Only. I think that's a lot more plausible than Michelle Pfeiffer, who I think they're over.

I also agree with Agustin. If Diane Kruger is helping announce the awards, I bet she's going to be a nominee. The same with John Krasinski if you were also predicting their television nominees. They might even throw in her boyfriend Pacey while they're at it too.

pomme said...

Ryan Reynols in "the proposal"?
Badley Cooper in "the hangover"?

NATHANIEL R said...

well... yeah. THE ROAD does seem liike a possible surprise. and I totally understadn the HFPA's Viggo obsessino because i have it too.

rich aunt -- the thing with mY ONE AND ONLY is that it's even more obscure (if that's possible) than CHERI. you know? but they did once love Renee as much as they used to love PFeiffer so... maybe.

Anonymous said...

as much as I hate to say it.I also think Renee has a better chance than Pfieffer...
plus if Bradley Cooper gets nominated,they'd most probably want her there too...all the press and publicity they'd get!

travis said...

Why isn't anyone talking about Natalie Portman in "Brothers" for Supporting Actress? I know the film's reception was mixed, but she received plenty of critical praise and she has a good history with the Globes (she beat out Cate Blanchett, Meryl Streep, Virginia Madsen, and Laura Linney back in 04) and we know how they are about their stars. I'd say she could get in over Moore (who I think is less of a safe bet than people think) or even Kendrick (if she splits votes with Farmiga)

Hayden said...

Well of course they don't operate in tandem, but I guess An Education just feels like HFPA fare to me. And I can't imagine it getting a Best Screenplay nod without a Best Picture nomination.

NATHANIEL R said...

anon -- that's a good point (Renée and Bradley) which i hadn't even thought of.

travis -- maybe because it's a lead role? i dunno. i think it's SO weird that they decided to campaign her for supporting. the categories are really weird this year what with the Marion Cotillard thing and this and every film, even the funny ones, marked as dramas.

Ashley said...

It would be nice if Whip It got some love at the Globes. The Globes may think that Drew Barrymore's Grey Gardens honors will be enough though. I love Meryl,but I hope she does not get nominated for It's Complicated. That 5th spot really should go to Ellen Page or Michelle Pfeiffer. Those two had performances that are getting badly snubbed this award season. Sad :(

Aaron said...

sorry, Nat, but I'm afraid you need to axe Michelle Pfeiffer for Sandra Bullock in The Proposal. I think she'll be a double nominee at the Globes this year...

...and I'm totally predicting Mariah Carey as well. They like to randomly throw either a) a big star or b) a really great comedic, showy performance into the supporting categories (aka Julia Roberts in Charlie Wilson's War, Emily Blunt in Prada, Tom Cruise in Tropic Thunder, etc...)

I also think Robert DeNiro can get in for Everybody's Fine in the comedy category because...he's Robert DeNiro

...and I hope you're wrong about Hilary Swank. I might throw up if she's nominated in Lead Actress Drama. Surely they've forgotten about that film already like the rest of the world? Maybe Saoirse Ronan or Abbie Cornish will take her place?

Anonymous said...

I think we will see 6 movies in BEST DRAMA.

Also Michael Stuhlbarg in COMEDY ACTOR.

No Mariah Carey, but Natalie Portman in BROTHERS.

The Princess and the Frog for SONG.

Hayden said...

An Education almost feels like Rachel Getting Married in that if the voting bodies connect with the screenplay, they're signing onto love for the whole film--the direction, the supporting actors, the picture itself. Otherwise, I think that we'll see a lot of groups ONLY recognize Mulligan.

Either you JUST love Mulligan or you love the whole film. It's all about whether or not you buy the ending.

Anonymous said...

Are Basterds a drama? Really?

Carl said...

Nathaniel:

I read at least one report that the HFPA had an early screening of "Avatar" in L.A. on the 8th, specifically to give their voters a chance to see it before ballots were turned in. If that is the case, is that enough to put "Avatar" in the Drama mix? And would that give us a chance to watch a Cameron/Bigelow showdown (inebriated division)?

Paul Outlaw said...

If Downey gets in, I think Jude will as well...

NATHANIEL R said...

anon 6:47 -- I thought Basterds would be a comedy too. But Tom O'Neill who supposedly knows about these things claims it's classified as a drama.

Hayden -- i'm an inbetweener. I like certain things about the film very much. Others not so much. Mulligan is terrif though.

Paul -- i could see that happening. That'd be fun.

morrissey said...

Oh....Sandra Bullock in The Proposal, since when people started to admire stupid low-class comedy...

RC said...

I put together globe comedy/musical predicts for actor/actress in the past week, and actress to me seems super easy - room for A surprisee as you mentioned, but other than that....

But you seem to think the actor comedy race is easy ---- I think they could go ga-ga for The Proposal and throw Reynolds in since I think there will be double Bullock - and I could even see Sacha Baron Cohen or Woody Harrelson for Zobmie Land. Both names I'm sure they'd like to have on the guest list.

Abe Fried-Tanzer said...

Great predictions as always, Nathaniel. You're always my first stop during Oscar season. I don't know how The Last Station will do, and I don't think that 500 Days of Summer will be embraced quite so much (or at all, actually). In Best Comedy Actor, you did forget about one likely nominee - Michael Stulhbarg for "A Serious Man." Our predictions only match up in one category, and that's Best Supporting Actress. I'm excited for Tuesday - I'll be back to read your thoughts. My predictions are here: http://movieswithabe.com/search/label/Golden%20Globes

adam k. said...

I did the same thing with An Education: Actress, Supporting, Screenplay. It felt right to me... it's just not BIG enough for best pic. And there are lots of other big, international, and/or "important" pictures.

But I may be biased because I wasn't a huge fan of the film. I guess I'm in the "only love Mulligan" group. I didn't like the ending. And then the whole thing just didn't stick with me much. I found it well done, but pretty standard and unmemorable.

Actually, I think I liked the directing most out of everything. More visually beautiful than films like this usually are, and very well paced. And obviously the performances were great. So I'd actually like to see Scherfig recognized, if anyone.

adam k. said...

I also think it should've gone comedy... I really see it as that more than a drama. Especially when you consider the ending.

Glenn said...

Crash wasn't even nominated at the Globes! Just because they don't nominate something doesn't mean it can't make it to Oscar.

youmezackandmiri said...

I totally agree on the Mariah nomination. I agree on the big stars/actors from hits being nominated. But I do not see Alfred Molina being nominated. HFPA nominated Tom Cruise last year. I expect Jake Gylenhaal or Steve Martin to take that slot.

But for the GG-Comedy Actor, you are not forgetting anyone. Michael Stuhlbarg doesn't exist for HFPA voters. :)

Steolicious said...

It's strange when the feel good movie of the year is a drama (IB).

Samuel Wright said...

sadly, I've hardly seen any of the movies from the nominee list - hopefully I'll get to watch more of them before the awards night comes around