Which divas, leading men, character actors, and stars do I think will be in the running about a year from now when the next Oscar race rolls around? Check out the new pages:
Best Actress
Best Actor
Best Supporting Actor
Best Supporting Actress.
It's all wild shots in the dark at this point. Wildly divergent opinions are sure to be had. I realize I'm not giving you explanations but time constraints are preventing and I had to get
All Predictions up. Done. [zzzzz] Return and discuss.
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45 comments:
sarah michelle gellar... southland tales
those are awful, I'm sorry.
I mean...you have Naomi Watts, Nicole Kidman, Sigourney Weaver, and Penelope Cruz behind Beyonce and Ashelly Judd? I hate Nicole and Penelope and I know better then that.
I hope those change a bit.
well the eddie murphy role won the Tony for supporting actor and there was a time when people were very angry that he'd never been nominated.
also as to the actress lineup. I don't really believe Sigourney's chances in arthouse films. They've passed her over at least 4 times in similarly tiny pictures. Unless that film gets a major backer.
Kidman may get miscasting gripes. Cruz is in a foreign language film --very rare to get noms for that even if the filmmaker is well known.
I have no faith in the painted veil personally. we have to call it like we see it. everyone's lists will be different.
oh and JUDD. it's a pure DE-GLAM role (crazy, disheveled, abused, etc...) and it's an awesome play --so if the movie is good, she has a clear shot. if it's bad nobody will even notice she made it.
Goooo J-Hud!
LOL I was looking at the Bug synopsis the other day. It sounds pretty interesting. I don't see why Ashley couldn't get nominated for an Oscar. If the deglam trend taught us anything it's never say never.
Mine are ready.
http://mysticdollarredemption.blogspot.com/2006/04/early-oscar-predictions-2007.html
Thanks Nat for all the hard work. It's great to have so many titles/actors/writers/directors in one place and organized. I'll be referring back many times.
In such a crowded field almost anything can happen... and will. On paper Notes on a Scandal looks good to me, but then I though The White Countess looked good from a distance as well.
I guess the point is to savour the anticipation and have fun. Looks like you are.
Nathaniel, your best supporting link is only leading me to best actress. I can't see the supporting girls!
For Best Song, I would have cited Dreamgirls multiple times. I thought I read it was going to have several new songs integrated into the original score. I'm glad you're showing it more love than most, though - great choices in my opinion!
- Adam
I'm kind of shocked by the lack of Ice Age 2, considering the box office muscle it flexed this past weeked (tying The Incredibles?).
I have to give props for Whitaker and Judd-those scream nominee, one a real person, the second a de-glam role. Academy Award Winner Ashley Judd? Hmm, I could (sadly) see it.
Who the heck is Bruno Ganz?
And what did Leonardo DiCaprio do to piss you off, anyway?
Otherwise, excellently entertaining picks as always. Such a thankless task, this.
If Ashley Judd gets an oscar nomination I will kill myself. She is so vile.
Well, Nat.
Although I don't fully agree with some of your predicts(even though it's this early, lol) I commend you for thinking outside the box with a few of your predicts...Esp. Actress. Everyone else is predicting Kate, Nicole, and Annete as almost sure fire bets. Noone else is predicting Ashley. So thank you for thinking outside the box even though I really don't want to see Ashley get nominated since I personally think she is a horrible actress.
Well since the gays stick together, you know the Everything Oscar website is going to have a similar lineup(no kidman, and nothing BUT dreamgirls, lol).
--Chris.
Well since the gays stick together, you know the Everything Oscar website is going to have a similar lineup(no kidman, and nothing BUT dreamgirls, lol).
--Chris.
lol, your Best Actress predix are funny. Mine are an unholy mix of four women constantly nominated women (Winslet, Bening, Streep and Weaver) + a newcomer. I chose Sienna Miller for no other reason that she'll be taking a LOT of drugs in her movie.
(more comments later. gotta go to school)
I love all of these except Actor and Actress. Some pretty kooky choices there.
Why do you think Kidman will get miscasting gripes? Isn't this supposed to be an unconventional biopic? And from what I've read about the movie, she does not need to look like Arbus to play her in this type of biopic. It's not quite that fair to say that since she has indeed played roles like that before(ala The Hours of chourse)And I agree about The Painted Veil. I just don't get some of the love for it already.
But still besides Kidman, awesome predicts as usual. :)
Beyonce ? Eddie Murphy ? Jennifer Hudson all listed as potential nominees ? Are you putting any effort in to this at all ? This is the first time in a long time I have been disappointed with a visit to "The Film Experience" ...
I find it funny that your photo-collage looks like Natalie Portman!
Great job, Nathaniel. Love the Last King of Scotland and MLP picks. As you know.
And even though I'm not personally sold on Dreamgirls, I'm kind of hoping it hits, for your bragging rights alone.
Hate to break it to you, Nat, but Winslet only has 4 nods. This is the real world, not the world as it should be... she was not nominated for Heavenly Creatures or Holy Smoke, or Finding Neverland for that matter. But I'm thinking that's some kind of typo.
I do think Bening's role might be too weird, and fall flat with awards... ditto on Dunst... but if the lineup is Winslet, Bening, Kidman, Blanchett and Dunst or Paquin, I will die of happiness. There is A LOT to choose from this year.
But again, that link to best supporting actress seems to be mis-attached... arg.
Oh god, the collage DOES look like Portman. How strange.
I love that Winslet is being considered such a lock for the nom at this early point. That doesn't usually happen with her. She has finally reached that point of maturity where she is just indisputably oscarbait. I think this is a good sign.
2006 - Year of the Kate!!!
loved your inclusion of Paquin as #2 in Lead Actress... Cruz is a top 7 contender already and a likely winner - my advantage is that I already saw "Volver", beware.
Add Maura and Portillo as longshots for Supp. Actress, and switch Bardem and Skargard on Goya's Ghost. I have the gut feeling Bardem will go supporting and Skargard will go leading (he PLAYS Goya!). But the status of Murphy as frontrunner for supporting is OK. I feel comfortable with that.
I see you have Joe Pesci, what happend to him, according to imdb Good Shepherd is the first film he's appearing in since Lethal Weapon 4.
I like most of the predictions, if it comes down to a Winslet vs. Benning showdown for best actress I will have a heart attack, I love them both so much.
There's too many individual things to comment on... so I won't. But, yes, I noticed the collage looked like Natalie Portman.
While your predix seem much more likely to actually occur, I like some of my oddball choices. Like Weaver/Rickman/Moss for Snowcake. I dunno... I gotta go again.
i'm sad that people seem upset about these.
y'all realize we know NOTHING right?
we never do this early. I'm as good as anyone on the net at this year-in-advance thing so take it all with a HUGE grain of salt. it's meant to be fun and "what if"
that said I TOTALLY stick by some of the unpopular choices. I mean when has there ever been an Oscar season wherein someone people once wrote off as 'they'll NEVER be an oscar nominee' not been nominated. It happens virtually every year.
why couldn't it happen for (shudder) Beyonce.
Not that I want it to mind. I don't like her at all and think she's boring onscreen. but you just never know.
and the films can sometimes be more important than the actor in placing a person into a race.
lol, it is pretty silly.
Looks like this year is gonna be a contentious one though. so many films seem like they're going to be extremely love/hate, don't you think? Like, moreso than usual.
I must say though, I think we can cancel Ask the Dust out of every contest. it's opened and died a miserable death.
Seriously, I bought up the fact that it was originally an Oscar 2005 contender that was then placed in APRIL 2006 (?) at Dave Poland's hot blog and people were like "doesn't look odd to me".
When your movie is highly touted as a contender yet is shifted a mere four months into the deadzone of April you've definitely not a problem.
*waves at Freedomland*
true that.
extreme outside shot at costume design.
very very very outside. (they do love Wolsky... but with so many period pieces coming...)
Minor correction... in listing Judy Davis at #11 in Supporting Actress for Marie Antoinette the chart says she's never been nominated.
La Davis (yes, I call her that) has a Best Actress nom for Passage to India and a Best Supporting nom for Husbands and Wives... when she was ROBBED!!
Cheers.
oops.
damn these templates. i need to triple check everything.
thanks for pointing out the mistakes. I am always in a hurry
re: Dreamgirls. Jennifer Hudson gets the big moment, I wonder if she would be pushed lead over Beyonce.
I'd at least mention Bale for the top 25 (actor). He's got Rescue Dawn (weight loss AND war) alongside The Prestige.
I also think they'd push Dench supporting for Notes from a Scandal. And bump Sienna Miller higher.
I love that you mentioned Cotilliard and McAvoy. I was hoping you'd mention Gillian Anderson for The Last King of Scotland.
And you didn't predict John Williams? Gutsy.
well nothing was listed for John Williams for 2006 or I would have.
they're reusing his main theme for superman returns but he wouldn't be eligible for that.
there is no way that JHudson is going to be pushed lead in Dreamgirls. Beyonce and Jamie Foxx are certainly not going to share billing. and it's a potentially easy get in supporting where they're less demanding of you having already proven your worth to be considered Oscary.
Great job on scoping out the scene, Nathaniel. You're obviously more on the ball than I am, but one omission in the Best Actor category struck me: Ryan Gosling for Half Nelson. He's won all sorts of raves from the people who've seen the film at Sundance.
You make it sound as if not scoring a film this year makes John Williams ineligible. This is the composers branch we're talking about (though a Williams-less year is always a good one).
another thing, Nat. you should know that Fur takes place during only like 5 yrs of Arbus' life and her suicide is not in the picture. The movie ends a long time before that. The movie is about the evolution of an artist and the compassion that goes along with it. It's not a Sylvia.
Yeah, it doesn't seem like he has really looked at Fur that much. From his little brief explanation(plus the misscasting grips)it doesn't look like Nat knows THAT much about the film. Plus she is still in overexposure? I have no idea how. Maybe a couple of yrs ago but not now. All the same complaints about overexposure these days seems to come out of dislike for the actor instead of actual fact.
people people.
i know next to nothing about FUR i admit.
but i have read i several places that diane arbus / kidman is miscasting. This is not a perception I invented. This is what's generally written out there.
as to overexposure... you don't have to be nominated to be overexposed. just because they've ignored her since she won the oscar doesn't mean she hasn't been everywhere in the media and in several films.
i LIKE nicole kidman.
I think you're right, Nathaniel. I've said this before and I'll say it again: for every good performance in the running this year, there's going to be one or two Charlize Theron-types to come in and snatch away those coveted spots.
and andy, who do you think those will be?
Nat I get what your saying(I'm the anonymous above your last post) but I've read a few early reviews from IMDB and goldderby/the envelope(what ever you want to call it, lol) and they say nothing but great things about her and the film as a whole(including the way it's shot, they say it switches from color to black and white every now and again...sounds interesting).
Nathaniel's point is well taken. None of us knows ANYTHING. It's all a huge guessing game with a healthy dose of fantasy and wish fulfillment, which is what makes these exercises fun. All rumor-has-it pundits are talking outta their butts just like the rest of us, especially pseuds like Dave Poland.
I don't know what FUR is like but if it's anything at all like the creative team's last exercise (SECRETARY) I expect to be equally infuriated and intrigued. Everyone who saw Maggie Gyllenhaal in SECRETARY early on was convinced she was a lock for a nom and even though I ultimately despised SECRETARY's misogynist rape fantasy dressed up as faux intellectualism, I did think Maggie G. deserved a nom. Point being... Kidman fans beware. I'm looking forward to her performance as I think she's a far better fit for the dark and delightfully perverse material she sometimes chooses (BIRTH, EYES WIDE SHUT) than she is for MOR claptrap like THE HOURS. But the Academy has overlooked all of her edgier performances, so a FUR nom on that basis looks iffy.
how is Fur considered perverse?
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