He's 13 1/2 inches tall. He wears only a sword. He's shiny. Everybody wants him. But today we're talking about those round golden puppies that inspire him...The fate of early Best Actress Oscar surges lies in the hands of Marion Cotillard, Laura Linney, Cate Blanchett and Helena Bonham-Carter. Or rather: the various Actress Oscar campaigns will know what hit them when the Hollywood Foreign Press Association (AKA The Golden Globes), announce their nominees on December 13th. La Vie En Rose, The Savages, I'm Not There and Sweeney Todd are wildcards of a sort. Which categories will they compete in? Drama or Musical/Comedy. For the men, it's far less complicated (categorically) except that there's far more candidates for drama.
Read the rest...
for a look at the crowded Golden Globe battles in all four leading acting (film) categories.
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16 comments:
I have no idea what's going on with the globes. But I still did an extensive run-down of the comedy categories on my blog. So most of what I'd have to say is there.
By the way, you forgot all about Ellen Page in Juno, who seems likely at least for a globe nom. So yes, there are already too many contenders in comedy/musical even if NONE of the shifty dramedy/musical chicks go there.
I think Heigl and Russell will be knocked out. I also think perhaps The Savages will go drama. I also think Marion Cotillard will go drama. I also don't really believe the thing about Blanchett going lead. I just don't.
I also think we'll see some ties, and comedy/musical actress (at least) will have 6 nominees.
I HAVE A THEORY…
I don’t know if anyone’s noticed, but there’s an interesting pattern in the Globe’s screenplay category: almost every year, one of the five screenplay nominees is snubbed a Best Picture nod- and usually it feels like the one that JUST missed. Take a look:
2000: “Quills”
2001: “Memento”
2002: “Far From Heaven”
2003: “In America”
2005: “Munich” / “Crash”
2006: “Notes on a Scandal”
It’s almost like the HFPA’s way of saying “sorry, you just missed… let us make it up to you.” That said, I currently think “There Will Be Blood” will be the next victim of this pattern:
BEST SCREENPLAY:
“Atonement”
“No Country for Old Men”
“Charlie Wilson’s War”
“Michael Clayton”
“There Will Be Blood”
(alts. “The Kite Runner”, “Into the Wild”)
Don Cheadle is in the Comedy section for Talk to Me not Drama.
I'd say La Vie En Rose goes drama (it's strengths are in it's drama, not in it's musical sequences - I wasn't a fan of Rose, but unlike Ray (another movie I disliked) it's musical scenes aren't raise-the-roof types, you know?) and so too will I'm Not There (the Weinsteins are going for the big PRESTIGE shot with that movie, along with Blanchett's lead swing, so drama seems apt).
I think the comedy/musical category will have six nominees - Adams, Kidman, Linney, Page, Russell subbing Helena Bonham Carter for Blonsky if she goes lead.
I think John Travolta will get nominated for whatever category they place him in, quite frankly.
Random, but am I the only one who thought Charlie Wilson's War looked REALLY bad in the trailer? Tom Hanks' and Julia Roberts' accents were embarrassing, as was Julia's getup. And visually, it looked like nothing special. I say it flops.
To me it seems that the Globes are all about a good time with lots of starpower and "star of the moment" types and honoring the "best" performances isn't always the main item on the agenda. Having said that here's my thinking:
Drama (locks)
Christie –Away From Her
Jolie –A Mighty Heart
Knightley –Atonement
maybes (in order of likeliness)
Foster
Tang
Berry
Comedy/Musical (locks)
Adams
Blonsky
Cotillard
(maybes - in order of likeliness)
Kidman
Page
Linney
Russell
I really don't think Blanchett in the Golden Age will make it. I left her out for I'm Not There, because she'll get it for supporting. I just don't buy it as lead and maybe it's because we've been married to the idea of her as supporting for so long. Also left out Bonham-Carter on the assumption that she'll get a supporting nod.
BTW, I don't know why, but I got a little depressed typing that list. Hope I'm very, very wrong
About CWW. I can't get over the fact that it seems like it belongs in the 90s. Hanks, Roberts, Nichols were all at the top of their games last decade. To me it feels like a leftover from a different era. And Roberts looks and sounds ridiculous. But I don't think it'll flop. It opens on Christmas and people are off from work and good amount will watch any big studio (non-heavy) movie, but it could underperform, like say it might make $90m instead of a $120m.
Well, considering other movies with big giant stars appearing together don't really bring in exceptionally large amounts of box office anymore, the success of CWW will depend entirely on whether it's good.
I still say it's ridiculous for La Vie en Rose to go comedy/musical. Any movie with a soundtrack could go musical on that basis.
I'd hardly call Blonsky a lock.
I wasn't able to post this elsewhere as there were already 46 comments (maybe blogger has a limit to number of replies it will accept?) but in answer to someone who said that MATW was getting "lukewarm" reviews - actually several critics have praised it, including AO Scott of the NY Times and Ty Burrell of the Boston Globe. In fact, the film is getting good reviews from critics across the U.S. - the talk of "lukewarm" seems to be coming more from the blogosphere. And even the critics who don't like the film have praise for Kidman's perf. In fact, Kidman is getting great reviews across the board - I've yet to see one negative review of her performance. She's getting some of the best reviews she has gotten in a long time - the consensus seems to be that she nails Margot, which is all the more admirable because it's not a loveable, likable, or easy character. So why isn't the buzz for her in terms of awards and so forth hotter or higher? Is it because of the unlikability of the character? When are the awards bodies going to stop handing out awards based on lovability of the character as opposed to quality of the performance? Or is the problem that Kidman is not playing a lesbian or old woman and therefore it's ok then (and only then) to be unlikeable?
And where's the studio backing a nom for her? As opposed to, say, Blanchett enthusiasts who seem to want her to win something for ANYTHING, gosh darn it. (And, is putting her as lead for "I'm Not There" someone's revenge for TGA having tanked?)
RedSatinDoll
I saw Atonement last night, and I just don't see Keira Knightley being nominated for it (much less winning), especially in the face of such excellent competitors this year! And much as I really liked the movie, I don't see it as the type to win the Oscar... unfortunately.
I really think Atonement could win the Oscar for best picture. There just isn't a standout film this year so far to win the award so any film could win. It's all going to depend on last minute buzz.
THEY SAID NICHOLSON WAS GOING LEAD LAST YEAR I CAN'T SEE BLANCHETT IN LEAD I FELL IT IS A RUMOUR HERE ARE MY LEAD ACTING PICS
ACTOR DRA
MCAVOY
LEWIS
CLOONEY
JONES
WASHINGTON
ACT COM
CARRELL
DEPP
HOFFMAN
ROGEN
TRAVOLTA
ASS DRA
JOLIE
KNIGHTLEY
FOSTER
COTILLARD
CHRISTIE
ASS COM
KIDMAN
LINNEY
ADAMS
PAGE
RUSSELL
I truly believe Cotillard will fall off the lists in the time to come. She might nab a Satellite and/or Globe, but nothing farther than that. I think most critics have forgotten about her decent performance by now.
Cotillard is not falling off any lists. She seriously got Charlize Theron in Monster type reviews for that perf. Remember the one who said "it's the best performance by one performer playing another that I've EVER SEEN"?
People love it.
All the ads in Australia were hailing it as "one of the greatest performances of our time" or whatever mumbo jumbo they were spewing. Kind of ridiculous.
Last year the Globes snubbed Gosling even though he got a SAG and Oscar nomination for Half Nelson.
Can't decide if they'll give him an apology nomination this year for Lars, or if they're just not that into him? I won't be surprised if he gets unjustly ignored again.
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