Thursday, November 03, 2005

Diane, Uma, Michelle, Scarlett, and Q'Orianka

Oscar Updates November

It's time to get serious. The movies are opening and it's just ONE month until the NBR kicks off my favorite season. No not the holidays, sillies. Awards season! I'm starting the revamp with Supporting Actress. I still don't think this is the exact lineup... but I'm trying to suss out it out and do a little future divination.

I don't totally believe in Uma but she could survive even if the film is a dud... if they're feeling charitable. I sense Bello faltering despite being totally deserving. Damn. I sense Capote keeping Keener's name in the process even though it would be a strange possibility in this normally showy category. And I return to believing in Michelle who you'll recall was one of my year-in-advance predicted.

Read the rest... Each page now comes with new text and trivia on each of the 15 leading competitors. More categories to follow in the next few days.

30 comments:

Anonymous said...

When you ditched Michelle Williams back when I thought it was kind of funny because I saw her on your April Fools nominations I thought, and told you so, that I didn't think Michelle could do it. Being still young, known as a Dawson's Creek person and so forth.

But then the last couple of months I've had the belief that she will indeed be in the five and you got rid of her.

But she's back.

Wouldn't it be funny if Heath and Michelle got nominated. They're both young and in love, they now have a baby daughter and a critically aclaimed film, and wouldn't an Oscar on the mantle for one of them (or both?) just top it all off.

-Glenn

adam k. said...

I think they will both get nominated, but an actual oscar for either of them seems like a lot to ask. The film, on the other hand... well, a best pic crowning could be the reward for all involved.

I think you're right on with your predictions now, Nathaniel, although yeah, I also want Bello to make it. I definitely see Scarlett in there, no question, and I guess Diane must get in if she would've gotten into lead. I've had a feeling all along that "something had to give" regarding her lead bid... the role just seemed too small, in an ensemble comedy, I never even saw her in the 5 globe comedy nominees. But she seems likely now in supporting.

I think now that Allen, Dench, Streep and Witherspoon will have smooth sailing to comedy nods... with the 5th slot going to either Parker, Knightley, or (if they put her here) Huffman.

Anonymous said...

I don't know if they'll submit Pride & Prejudice for comedy. Sure it's funny, but it's all filled with romance and drama and such... although, the musical/comedy category is secretly just a second drama category in disguise.

Man, I was so surprised at how much i absolutely adored Pride & Prejudice. Like, REALLY surprised.

I think Keira will get in though no matter what category. It seems like a very Globey type of movie. British, respected, (bound to be) popular. And Keira's smashing.

Keaton, now in supporting, could very easily win. And then she can become Maggie Smith (who also won a lead and supporting oscar).

-Glenn

Nick Davis said...

What about Emily Mortimer for Match Point? Is it possible that Scarlett will go lead, and Mortimer supporting? The drumbeats for her quieter performance have still been loud, and she's positioned as the more sympathetic figure, no? Actually, don't answer that. I don't want any twists ruined.

I like Bello's and Keener's chances better than you do, and Keatons' rather less.

Anonymous said...

I too think Williams and Ledger will both make it in. Couldn't be more thrilled for Williams either, as she always struck me as the thespian standout in Dawson. That finale was a killer.

Just curious though, about why nobody expects Jake to make it into the Supporting Actor line-up? It's a far less crowded field than the Supp Actress category, he's practically a lead (who cares about fraud? Not AMPAS), and he's getting great reviews for a potential Best Pic nominee.

Yet somehow, the nomination buzz just isn't there for him.

Rob

par3182 said...

Isn't Q'Orianka Kilcher being pushed for lead?

NATHANIEL R said...

i don't know if Q'Orianka is being pushed for anything as of yet. Buzz says that she actually is a lead. But even if that's true, it's the exact type of thing that goes supporting.

NATHANIEL R said...

also do you like the new page -more info and all? I mean who knew that "Ashley" from Junebug was Tara's cousin on Buffy?! So fun.

Gerry said...

Goldderby says Q'Orianka is confirmed as lead. Not that Goldderby is always right but it's something to be considered. Great to see you back in awards season form, Nathaniel. Though I'd have Michelle Yeoh higher up and Gong Li in the top five. I'm sensing that Memoirs is going to be bigger than you (and many others) have thought all year.
Having seen Brokeback, I'm not so sure on Williams. Then again, I thought her turn was nothing special and I seem to be in the minority in this one so take my opinion with a grain of salt.

Anonymous said...

Williams is really, really good in the film, but she has minimal screentime and lacks those showy, clip moments that voters go ga-ga over. She is very restrained in the part, which I think will be her biggest problem. I certainly hope I'm wrong though - I've always thought that Williams was light years ahead of her "Dawson" co-stars, talent-wise.

-Ali

david m said...

In such a crowded category there are bound to be votes flying all over the place which could make for surprises. But the crowded field should help actresses in movies getting the biggest push. Your list looks good. My guess right now is five of these nine:
Keaton, Williams, Johansson, Thurman, Li, L Redgrave, V. Regrave, Bello, Newton.

None of those names would surprise me... so there's probably someone else who will sneak in.

John T. said...

First-love the tidbits on the different nominees.

Second-Agree that Diane, Michelle, Scarlett, and probably Q'Orianka (it seems like their type of role here) will make it, but I still have serious doubts on Uma (if she couldn't make it for Kill Bill...). Personally, I'm leaning toward Bello at the moment, though I'd rather it be Weisz.

And, speaking of Weisz, does anyone know if she's officially in this race or lead? It seems, with leads evaporating like water this season, she'd be a better fit there.

And finally, I'd also like to know why no one's talking about Jake for Supporting Actor in Brokeback Mountain.

JavierAG said...

oh, a nomination for gong li would be so sweet. "oscar winner gong li".... mmm, nah, sounds too good to be true.

oh and i love the tidbits on each actress, very good.

damian b. said...

Oh Nathaniel-

You just made my college week from hell, so sweet. I love the tid bits of info on each actress, I love the thorough pro's and con's.

Over at the Envelope though, they're saying Q’Orianka is being campaigned for lead, which may shake up your predicitions. Keep up the updating!!!

damian b. said...

my bad not the envelope. it's the backstage, here's the article:


http://www.thebackstage.org/oscars2.html

Anonymous said...

John - Weisz is officially being pitched as support for Constant Gardener. I've seen the trade ads.

Though we've seen mid-campaign changes in trade ads before. McKellen went from Lead to Support for LOTR:FOTR. And Naomi Watts was swapped from Support (!!!) to Lead for Mulholland.

Rob

adam k. said...

Perhaps Q'Orianka could actually make it into the lead race? Hey, they're probably taking a hint from the Keisha love that it's not impossible.

I also love the new page and the info.

adam k. said...

Actually, with such a weak lead actress - drama lineup, maybe it's more than possible for Kilcher to make it in... I'll be watching at the globes to see if The New World makes a splash... I certainly hope it does.

C.P. Iñor said...

I think that Uma has a real chance in here. I knew that Amy Adams was Tara's cousin on Buffy, I'm a superbuffy fan, haha, and also I really want Williams to get into the 5 nominees.

damian b. said...

I think with Diane now going supporting and North Country quickly faltering, it's quite plausible for
Q'Orianka to make the short list for lead actress. There is a shortage of dramatic roles to choose from, so if the film is well received as well as her performance, I think we could definitely see her with a nom.

adam k. said...

Is this "nominate for best actress an unknown foreign youngster in their film debut" thing going to become an annual tradition at AMPAS now? If Q'Orianka makes it 3 in a row, it'd be pretty funny.

NATHANIEL R said...

this is why i dont believe Q'Orianka for lead. Too much of a strange pattern, Oscarwise. My guess based on the trailers is that it's really one of those films where the leads (Farrell & Q'Orianka) can be read as just part of the ensemble. I mean doesn't it seem like there are many characters?

If she goes lead I don't expect her to make it. It would be quite weird to have an annual spot for "unknown non-white or black actress" you know? And when it comes time for balloting they haven't suddenly changed their tune about liking famous people more have they? Or did they and no one told me?

Kilcher looks great in the trailer. But you never know... But I think the filming love scenes with a notorious leading man when you're only 12 or 13 might prove problematic in some way -media wise.

adam k. said...

Or it could just add to her publicity... hey, they gave an oscar to Polanski.

adam k. said...

Wow, with Moore out, the drama category is looking really sparse. Who is even in the running other than Theron, Huffman, Richardson, Paltrow and Ziyi? Is that it then? Who else could crack it?
Foster? Kilcher? Renée? (it could happen.) Might one of the comedy ladies go drama? Joan, Reese, Keira, that means you.
SOMETHING has to happen to make this category interesting. I mean, geez.
Which one of these women could actually win the globe?

adam k. said...

Oops, that post was meant for the lead page. Damn.

Anonymous said...

Nick,

I still think that Johansson will go lead for "Match Point" since the category is weak and her role is lead. In this sense, Mortimer will make it as supporting.

Marcelo.

NATHANIEL R said...

Marcelo, have u seen match point? because everyone i've talked to who has verified they've seen it, seems to think supporting. so if you have seen it and feel she is indeed the lead, things just got more confusing and maybe it won't be a cut and dry decision.

confusing.

Anonymous said...

I have not watched "Match Point". I just think it would be a smart move if Johansson went Lead and Mortimer Supporting, my thoughts are based on the trailer.
Sorry to make you feel confused. In fact, I am just guessing.

Marcelo.

damian b. said...

fyc ads at oscar watch have confirmed that both scarlett and mortimer are going supporting.

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