Wednesday, November 30, 2005

NBR Predictions and Oscar Updates

A storm warning. Last year the National Board of Review used their oft dismissed but actually powerful "first!" status among Oscar precursors to start the drumbeats for... Finding Neverland ? Yes, sometimes the NBR uses their power for evil. But like Joe said to me the other night -- Paraphrasing: 'You can't really bag on the Globes or the NBR because they throw such interesting wrenches into the system.' So true. Without bizarre calls or deserving but surprise entries from the precursors the Oscar race would be much duller. So will the NBR use their dubious powers for evil (Geisha) or for good (Brokeback) this year? My guess is a little of both.

My NBR predictions? Watch me flail about -they're so unknowable.
New Oscar Updates? Right here.

47 comments:

damian b. said...

anyone else super excited about the kick off the awards season?!? whatev, i'm lame, don't judge.

JavierAG said...

well of course. the supp actress race is now looking hotter by the day!

btw, the films we know next to nothing about are stil "munich", "kong" and "world" right? when are the screenings starting?

Gerry said...

NBR is bizarre to predict. Every year, we pull our hair out over them and they come back suprising us.

Anyway, gotta say great to see you update. You're addictive during this season.

While the lead categories seem to be whittling down, supporting (especially Supporting Actor) really does seem open.

Though I thought Kilcher was confirmed as lead? It'll be a helluva fight, but perhaps a better shot than Danes?

And yeah, it's looking as though Huffman's stunt is going to pull off.

adam k. said...

Agreed on Huffman. A lot of reviews are so-so for the movie but full of love for her. And that worked for Charlize Theoron. So, given the weakness of the category, I'd say she's in.

Witherspoon
Dench
Allen
Knightley
Huffman

Kamikaze Camel said...

That seems to be the top 5 concensus around HERE, but in most places they're still discounting Knightley and Allen in favour of Theron and someone like Zhang Ziyi.

I have felt for a week or so that Theron won't get nommed (I mentioned it on my blog the other day) and replaced her with Theron (eerily identical to Nat's top 5).

I agree with most of the stuff Nat has going. I obviously have my own theories and hypotheses.

On the NBR I think their top 10 will look something like this (in no order tho)

Batman Begins
Brokeback Mountain
Capote
Crash
Good Night & Good Luck
A History of Violence
Memoirs of a Geisha
Pride & Prejudice
The Producers
The Squid & The Whale

Am I odd for guessing Batman Begins? I dunno why.

And their #1 i also think will be Memoirs of a Geisha. Or... Pride & Prejudice Just a weird feeling.

I agree with your Keira breakthrough, Heath for Actor and Crash for Ensemble. However, I am going with Joan Allen for Actress. She also has Off The Map, right?

-Glenn

JavierAG said...

um glenn, perhaps there's some weird unseen metaphor here but i think you just said you replaced theron with theron. um. interesting ;-)

adam k. said...

Yeah, I think that was a typo, not a metaphor.

Does any one think Heath might get Breakthrough Male, not best actor? That's what I'd guess.

I am sticking with Brokeback Mountain for #1 (I have felt this way all year, and am not about to abandon it now that the hype has been confirmed as fact). I think now that Miramax is over, this might be the year they finally give it up for Focus. I'm feeling like Geisha is more of a Last Samurai/Cold Mountain than a Finding Neverland (the former two did not win NBR and hence did not see a best pic nod). I think NBR will want to (as they always do) make seal the deal for Brokeback and then pat themselves on the back.

I will be posting full NBR predictions on my blog eventually, and they'll be pretty different from Nathaniel's.

Kamikaze Camel said...

lol, er, yeah, it was meant to be Theron with Huffman. I have Theron on my brain (check my blog... PLEASE! I swear it won't bite)

That's a good suggestion about Heath Ledger though as Breakthrough. Considering someone like Theron (there we go again) was much more established when she won it. Her career definitely wasn't considered to be in tatters and an embarassment.

At the start of the year I actually said Jake Gyllenhaal for Best Actor with the NBR, never figuring Ledger would be the one getting raves.

-Glenn (Read my blog)

Kamikaze Camel said...

(i've done an entire NBR rundown, ala Nat, so... go read it, bitches)

-Glenn

(bitches being an affectionate term from me)

adam k. said...

Actually I've done the same thing on my blog. Haha.

At least Glenn and I have each other.

Anonymous said...

Nathaniel, Farrel is being pushed supporting for The New World, whereas Kilcher is lead. Wes Studi isn't getting a push.

http://www.newstands.org/newworld2a.JPG

(an FYC ad)

JavierAG said...

smart.... VERY smart

Anthony said...

Joan Allen is taller than Geena Davis?

NATHANIEL R said...

no. but the tallest of the many actresses in competition this year.

adam k. said...

Farrell as supporting and Kilcher as lead? Now that is weird.

They must've learned from Maria and Whale Rider... and Alexander.

And no woman is taller than Geena Davis.

adam k. said...

OK, wait, now would they really nominate a 20-year-old AND a 15-year-old? Together? That is a bit much. Although it would balance out, since Judi and Joan are... well... no longer 30.

But if Kilcher is really lead and they don't waffle, I bet she has a legitimate shot. I believe more in her more than Paltrow, Theron, or Zhang.

Kamikaze Camel said...

She definitely has a shot. But she needs a big emotional scene. A scene that just reels you in. Keira had the play. Catalina had the swallowing scene.

Is sex with Colin Farrell that hard to do?

-Glenn

Kamikaze Camel said...

Oh, and Adam - of course we have each other. It was the start of a beautiful friendship... or something.

adam k. said...

Wait, what play?
Oh, you mean KEISHA.
What big emotional scene does Keira have anyway?

Kamikaze Camel said...

lol, yeah, i did meant Keisha. What's the deal with the similar sounding names?

Keira might not necessarily need one, it was just that Q'orianka needs one because she's literally never been heard of before and I can't imaging her role being very big on wordy exchanges like Keira's.

Although Keira does have the showdown in the rain. And, well, the entire movie basically.

-Glenn

Nick M. said...

I am still confounded by the stupidity of the NBR for naming Finding Neverland #1 of 2004. Nevertheless, I highly anticipate their whacko awards.

Kamikaze Camel said...

Well they also rewarded Moulin Rouge! and Quills in recent years so...

-Glenn

Anonymous said...

Nobody should get to excited about NBR selections. Even though they are, more times then not, dead-on on what are the best movies and performance of the year. They are usually no where near what the Academy picks. The Oscar's are political and have a tendency of following the more water down version of awards show, like the Golden Globe. Not only do most of the winners of NBR have a shot in the dark to win a Oscar, but there has been times NBR winners weren't even nominated for an Oscar. Take for instance, in 1999 Julianne Moore won a NBR for Magnolia/Ideal Husband and never received a Oscar nod for either of these.

Kamikaze Camel said...

(she got nominated for The End of the Affair)

I still say these Anonymous people are SO FUCKING ANNOYING!!!!

Kamikaze Camel said...

^

Sorry bout the swearing, but I feel passionate about this issue.

...?

Anonymous said...

Excuse me, while I correct you and your ignorance.

Her win from the NBR was for Supporting Actress not Lead and certainly was not for End of the Affair. As a matter of fact, she wasn't even nominated for a Golden Globe for Magnolia, but was honored by the NBR.

PS my name is M. Does that make you happy?

Nick M. said...

Oh, so you aren't anonymous -- you are a murderous pedophile. Good to know.

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