Thursday, November 16, 2006

Guess the Golden Globes (Pt. 1)

The following are not final GG predictions but talking points. I'm updated the Oscar predictions over the weekend, so help me clear my head and winnow out the weak candidates with your comments on the Globes (everyone join hands, wheeee) The acting categories will come in part two. Let's discuss the films for now. OK? Go.

Best Picture
Unless the Globe voters cheat (and they might... the precursor voting bodies love to overshoot the traditional five-wide categories so as to be more predictive of Oscar: see also The Broadcast Film Critics Association-- or better yet: don't.) For the five dramatic slots you're looking at some combo of Babel, Bobby, The Departed, Flags of Our Fathers, The Good German, The Good Shepherd, The Last King of Scotland, Little Children, Notes on a Scandal, The Pursuit of Happyness, The Queen, World Trade Center, and United 93. I've put my current guesses in bold. Am I forgetting any viable contenders?

I know that Children isn't anywhere close to a sure thing but when have the Globes ever gone completely obvious for all five slots? The Globes do more thinking for themselves than some other groups so you might see a major shut-out a la Crash last year. I'm rooting against the meandering lukewarm bait of WTC and Flags --the Globes need to put these films in their place (that'd be out of the running) since it's easy to picture other predictive precursors biting. If we could forever rid awards voting bodies of their tendency to give extra points to subject matter and get them to focus on individual movie quality, awards season would be so very different, would it not?


The musical or comedy division is less likely to surprise with Borat, The Devil Wears Prada, Dreamgirls, Little Miss Sunshine looking lock-ish for 80% of the category. That fifth slot will probably go to either Stranger Than Fiction, or, people are saying, Thank You For Smoking. But if they're reaching back that far, early in the year, maybe it'll be Prairie Home Companion since it holds the musical advantage? They could also go self-reflexive cutesy and vote for awards-season skewering For Your Consideration. Or maybe a children's animated film: Cars, Happy Feet? In my fantasy awards season (the one that never comes to be *sigh*), we see a Shortbus nomination! Ha ha. Could you imagine? But not even the Globes are that crazy.

Best Director
Since foreign language pictures aren't eligible for the Best Picture categories at the Globes here is where we'll get our first inkling of whether or not Almodovar's Volver or Yimou's The Curse of the Golden Flower can generate any traction outside of certain media drooling for their leading knockouts (Penelope Cruz and Gong Li, respectively).



Those two foreign auteurs will have to battle it out with other heavyweights like Eastwood (Flags) Field (Little Children), Greengrass (United 93), Innaritu (Babel), Stone (World Trade Center) and Soderbergh (Good German) for only two slots. Why only two? Well, I don't think Condon (Dreamgirls), Frears (The Queen) and Scorsese (The Departed) have anything to worry about, do you?

Your comments are welcome. More than welcome actually... there are so many variations possible in November. It's in that first week of December that hopeful movies start falling into permanent history book exile, the golden statues heavy on their minds: a last futile dying wish.

(it's going to be a long awards season)

35 comments:

Lorenzo said...

Best Picture - Drama
1.Babel
2.The Queen
3.The Departed
4.Bobby
5.The last king of Scotland

Best picture - Comedy of musical
1.Little Miss Sunshine
2.Dreamgirls
3.The devil wears Prada
4.Borat
5.Strangers than fiction

Best Director
1.Martin Scorsese
2.Alejandro Gonzales Inarritu
3.Clint Eastwood
4.Stephen Frears
5.Bill Condon

eric said...

It’s about time we had a little more Globe attention. Afterall this is the group who gave Moulin Rouge & Brokeback Mountain their Best Picture honor as well as nominations to A History of Violence and The Squid and the Whale. This is also the group that did not fully succumb to the Million Dollar Baby surge and rightly named Clive Owen as the Best Supporting Actor of 2004. In the last six years the Globes have only truly, enexusabley F-ed up once in terms of their Best Picture nominees, (the Far From Heaven omission) were as with the Academy it’s far more frequent and far more enexucasble. Bring on the Globe race!

JavierAG said...

Seriously, Globes > Oscars these days. And that's just sad.

PS: Hope your Best Director predix are right!

JavierAG said...

Plus the Globes are nominating O'Hara and Bernal while the Oscars are not, so that's that.

Anonymous said...

Best Drama
- The Departed /win/
- The Queen
- Little Children
- Babel
- Bobby

Best Comedy/Musical
- Dreamgirls /win/
- A Prairie Home Companion
- The Devil Wears Prada
- Cars
- Little Miss Sunshine

Best Director
- Martin Scorsese /win/
- Pedro Almodovar
- Alejandro G. Innaritu
- Stephen Frears
- Bill Condon

Best Screenplay
- Volver /win/
- The Queen
- Little Miss Sunshine
- The Departed
- Little Children

I'm very much into "Cars" and I'm sure many people just loved it. It's definitely Pixar level and has a terrific plot that neither "Finding Nemo", nor "The Incredibles" had. Maybe if you grew up in a small town, you would love it as much as I do.
But I'd agree it's much too long.

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ralch said...

Drama:
Flags of Our Fathers
The Good German
Little Children
The Queen
United 93

Comedy/Musical:
Borat
Cars
Dreamgirls
Little Miss Sunshine
Thank You for Smoking

Director:
Martin Scorsese
Bill Condon
Clint Eastwood
Todd Field
Paul Greengrass

ralch said...

...with wins for "Flags of Our Fathers" (some people reeeeally love it) and "Little Miss Sunshine", in the picture categories, and Clint Eastwood as best director.

By the way, the screenplay category I anticipate will go as follows:
Flags of Our Fathers
Little Children
Little Miss Sunshine (win)
The Queen
Thank Your for Smoking

Anonymous said...

I know that you are not talking about acting but I am hearing that HFPA is pushing Hudson for lead and Beyonce for supporting in Dreamgirls.

ralch said...

It's a long shot and totally out of the buzz radar, but critics associations may remember 'V for vendetta", and the Globes pick up on it. I personally prefer it to both Little Miss Sunshine and The Departed.

Stephen G said...

I think Little Children will make it too, in the tradition of last year's noms for Constant Gardener, Match Point and History of Violence.

Look for Bobby to place - the Weinsteins seem to have enormous sway on the HFPA!

As for Cars, I thought the Globes were adding an Animated feature this year? (or am I in la-la land?) If that's the case, then I doubt it will be in Comedy/Musical too.

Beau said...

Indeed, it would be spectacular to see Shortbus get deserved recognition. As such, we don't live in that world.

NO FOR FOOF or WTC, PLEASE.
Give a slot to United 93, the more deserving of any pics mentioned. I dug The Departed and The Queen both, but there was something about U93... the meticulous attention to detail, the film's respect of these individuals and their astounding courageousness so perfectly reflected in every frame that I walked out of it like a child walking out of 'Old Yeller'. It was that affecting, that heartbreaking, and ultimately that rewarding as not only a motion picture, but an experience.

Anonymous said...

Currently, I’m fairly confident Little Children will make it into the Best Picture race. I mean, think about it?

The HFPA loves SEX….

- The People vs. Larry Flynt
(Best Pic nom / Best Director & Screenplay wins)
- Mulholland Dr.
(Best Pic and Director noms)
- Kinsey (Best Pic nom)

and SOPHISTICATED SEX even more:

- Closer
(Best Pic nom / 2 acting wins)
- Match Point (Best Pic nom)
- Best Comedy Series:
Sex and the City (3 consec. years)

They also love LITERARY Pedigree and EDGY human drama:

- In the Bedroom
(Best Pic nom / Actress win)
- The Hours
(Best Pic and Actress win)
- A History of Violence
(Surprise Best Pic nom)

Little Children falls under all these categories, and with strong critical acclaim under its belt, I think it will score a well deserved Best Picture nomination at the Golden Globes. Cross your fingers.

ryan said...

NOTABLE (GLOBE) BEST PICTURE SNUBS:

2000: Cast Away / Quills

2001: Black Hawk Down / Memento / The Shipping News

2002: Far From Heaven /
Catch Me... / Road to Perdition

2003: In America / Last Samurai

2004: Collateral / Vera Drake

2005: Capote / Crash / Munich

2006: (???????)

Ryan said...

MY ROUGH PREDICTS

BEST PICTURE (Drama)
1. The Departed
2. The Queen
3. Babel
4. Flags of Our Fathers
5. Little Children
(Bobby / The Good Shepard)

BEST DIRECTOR
1. The Departed- Scorsese
2. Flags of Our Fathers- Clint
3. Dreamgirls- Condon
4. Babel- Inarritu
5. The Queen- Frears
(Stone / Almodovar / DeNiro)

BEST PICTURE (Comedy/Musical)
1. Dreamgirls
2. Little Miss Sunshine
3. The Devil Wears Prada
4. Borat
5. Stranger Than Fiction
(A Prarie Home Companion)

Gerry said...

For some reason, I've always pictured Frears missing out here despite being on his way to BFCA, BAFTA, DGA and Oscar nods. Not sure why.

I feel that "Babel" won't tickle Oscar's fancy but the Globes will eat it up. They also love celebrity directors so even if he isn't headed to an Oscar nod, I don't think they'll be able to say no to Clint.

Then there are the obvious nods for Scorsese and (assuming it continues to live up to the hype) Condon).

So my Director predictions here...
Condon
Eastwood
Innaritu
Scorsese
And then one of: Stone (if the movie is revived it's going to be here), Greengrass (if he gets in here, it's great start for the film's chances everywhere), DeNiro (if the movie is any good) or, yes, Frears

Gerry said...

I'd also predict the following for screenplay...
Michael Arndt - Little Miss Sunshine
Guillermo Arriaga - Babel
Bill Condon - Dreamgirls
William Monahan - The Departed
Peter Morgan - The Queen

Anonymous said...

I HATE it when people refer to Globe voters as “star- fuckers”.

Yes, in terms of being nominated the big names have a better shot but not necessarily when it comes to the win.
I though Scarlett Johansson was definitely gonna win it last year (an actress they obviously adore + plus killer sex appeal + starring in Best Picture nominee) It made sense. If not her then Williams right?
NO.
They actually voted for the genuine performance… handing it to “that chick from The Mummy” instead.

John T. said...

I did not like Babel at all, but I suppose there's always some award-winner I can't explain; it seems like a likely contender at this point anyway.

15 YEAR OLD BLOGGER said...

DID YOU FORGET THAT THIS YEAR THE GLOBE VOTERS HAVE THEIR OWN ANIMATED CATEGORY??????

SO THAT MEANS IT WILL BE 10X'S HARDER FOR AN ANIMATED PIC TO GET INTO COMEDY AND MUSICAL!

15 YEAR OLD BLOGGER said...

I JUST READ THE RULES FOR ANIMATED PICS FOR THE GLOBES AND IF 8 FILMS QUALIFY (THERE ARE ALREADY 15 FOR THE OSCARS THIS YEAR, SO THEY WILL HAVE THE AWARD) THEY WILL HAVE THE AWARD AND IF THEY DO HAVE THE AWARD, NOT ANIMATED FILM CAN GET INTO BEST COMEDY AND MUSICAL OR DRAMA PICTURE!!!

THAT MEANS WE HAVE MORE OPENINGS SINCE HAPPY FEET AND CARS CAN'T GET IN.

Kamikaze Camel said...

omg turn your caps off. lol. It looks like you're yelling at us.

But, yes, the Globes have an Animated category. I would've predicted Happy Feet for a Comedy/Musical nod, but alas...

I'm actually gonna do a Globes prediction thing tomorrow cause I've been meaning to for a while. But I do think Prairie will get in a be a sole nominee. They do that sometimes (the most obvious example being Woody Allen's Everyone Says I Love You, which got in on it's musical nature, which Prairie has too. Plus FAMOUS people).

And drama could go Babel, Bobby, The Departed, The Queen and United 93 - but that's just me.

adam k. said...

I share Gerry's sentiments on Frears... actually, I've always seen The Queen as that kind of lead-performance-driven film that just gets nommed for lead perf and best pic at the globes (no other nominations), and then picks up steam later on in the season. Though Frears and Morgan or obviously in the running, as is Michael Sheen in supporting.

For best comedy/musical, it seems to be a real 6 horse race looking like this:

1) Dreamgirls
2) Little Miss Sunshine
3) Devil Wears Prada

...plus Borat, Prairie and/or Fiction. Can't say which I think'll miss... but I think it might be Borat. It just seems maybe too "WTF" to be nommed for best pic; they might just nom Cohen for acting only. But I'm probably wrong. I really feel like Prairie will make it, so maybe Stranger than Fiction gets the boot?

I also think Clint will get in with or without his film. For best pic I'll say:

1) The Departed
2) The Queen
3) Babel
4) Little Children
5) The Last King of Scotland

Bobby, Flags, WTC, United 93 and other things close behind. If Bobby really is "Crash in a hotel", then maybe the globes will snub it.

For director:

1) Scorcese
2) Condon
3) Inarritu
4) Eastwood
5) Greengrass

I feel like Pedro has more of a shot in screenplay than here... but maybe both? I dunno. I just really want Flags and especially WTC to not get much attention. Please...

adam k. said...

What I love a lot about this year is how competitive the comedy categories are. When you've got what seems like 10 genuine contenders for best musical/comedy (including FYC, Cars, Happy Feet, Thank You For Smoking, Borat, Stranger Than Fiction, Prairie, and the obvious ones), it's a good year for comedy.

Also, comedy/musical actress is pretty cut-throat. Meryl and the two Dreamgirls will be there, plus Bening, La Z, maybe Cruz?, and some people seem to think Breslin could go into lead/comedy (though why should she? there is no good reason, when it's so much more competitive). I hope Cruz goes drama and Breslin stays supporting. Then probably no one's feelings will be hurt.

ralch said...

If the globes have their own Animated Film category, then the comedy picture nominations, in my opinion, will be as follows:

Borat
Dreamgirls
Little Miss Sunshine
Stranger Than Fiction
Thank You for Smoking

Anonymous said...

BEST PICTURE COMEDY/MUSICAL
Borat
Dreamgirls
Stranger than Fiction
Volver

BEST PICTURE DRAMA
Babel
Flags of Our Fathers
Little Children
The Departed
United 93

Anonymous said...

and Little Miss Sunshine as BEST PIC COMEDY/MUSICAL nominee

Anonymous said...

Why isn't anyone mentioning Running With Scissors or The History Boys as comedy nominees? They seem like pretty good Globes bait. I mean this is the group who's acknowledged stuff like Still Crazy in the past, so anyhting goes.

ralch said...

"Bobby" is at only 46% in Rotten Tomatoes. Doesn't look good enough.

Anonymous said...

"Bobby" is a TERRIBLE film. Then again, so is "The Queen." And so is "Running With Scissors."

Globe predictions:

The Good Shepherd
The Departed
Babel
United 93
Flags of Our Fathers/The Queen

Little Miss Sunshine
Dreamgirls
The Devil Wears Prada
A Prairie Home Companion
Running With Scissors

Scorsese
Condon
Inarritu
Frears
Greengrass

Sharon Stone will nab a nomination for "Bobby." Is there a supporting actor/actress category for the Globes?

Who cares who will win the Best Actress Globe? Helen Mirren has it all tied up.

Carlinhos Brown said...

I just want to remind people that VOLVER can't be nominated for Best Picture...'cause it's foreign language film...

I'm thinking

Best Picture Drama
1. The Departed
2. Babel
3. The Queen
4. World Trade Center
5. Flags of Our Fathers

Best Picture Comedy/Musical
1. Dreamgirls
2. The Devil Wears Prada
3. Little Miss Sunshine
4. For Your Consideration
5. Borat

dario said...

I'm thinking

Best Picture Drama
1. The Departed
2. Babel
3. The Queen
4. Little Children
5. The Good German

Best Picture Comedy/Musical
1. Dreamgirls
2. The Devil Wears Prada
3. Little Miss Sunshine
4. For Your Consideration
5. Running with Scissors

alan said...

foreign?
Volver or Pans....??????

Bernardo said...

I'm going for

Picture (Drama)
Babel (Really HFPA thing)
The Departed (Definetely a lock)
Flags of our Fathers (Mmm...it's Clint)
Little Children (snub at Oscars, recognition here)
The Queen (mmmm...I don't know why but I feel they might "Crash" it. Still I'm currently predicting it.

Wild Card: United 93


Picture - Comedy

The Devil wears Prada (Meryl will make her film ride the buzz)
Dreamgirls (even if the film is not as good it will get in (See The Producers and Phantom of the Opera))
Little Miss Sunshine (Lock)
A Prairie Home Companion (Sentimentalism towards Altman's death will boost this one everywhere)
Stranger than Fiction (My wild guess)

Wild card: Borat



Director

Condon (They love musical directors)
Eastwood (Once again...it's Clint)
Frears (though I think it is very probably going to be snubbed...have a weird hunch)
Iñarritu (I have a werid feeling with Eastwood and Scorsese having won in the past years it is between Condon and Iñarritu)
Scorsese (Lock)

Wild Card: Todd Field

Yup...Almodovar will get the Oscar nod but not the GG nod.


Screenplay

Babel (really HFPAish)
The Departed (lock and might win)
Little Children (HFPA will love this)
Little Miss Sunshine (lock and might win)
Stranger than Fiction (wild guess)

Wild Card: Dreamgirls (No one was expecting Chicago in 2002)

No Volver...remember the major shut-down of Hable con Ella in screenplay at the GG's.

Anonymous said...

I thought this was going to be so easy, until I found out likely nominees VOLVER & IWO JIMA are ineligible for Best Picture slots.

Drama
1. Babel
2. The Departed
3. The Queen
4. United 93
5. Little Children (getting the Iwo Jima slot)
WILD CARD: Blood Diamond

Comedy/Musical
1. Borat
2. Devil Wears Prada
3. Dreamgirls
4. Little Miss Sunshine
5. History Boys (getting the Volver slot)
WILD CARD: For Your Consideration

Mark it down. It's all right.

A.D.