OK. Let's discuss the movie stars. That's the whole goddamn raison d'etre of awards shows anyway, right? Help me in the comments and over the weekend, I'll update my Oscar Predictions. Ready... Set... Globe.
I'm bored already!
I kid. Sort of. But at least the Globes will shed some light on this relatively tepid year for lead actors. What is going on? It's 2003 only without the holy trinity of Depp, Penn, and Murray? I've bolded what I think would be my predictions today. Feel free to quibble in zee comments.
Drama: Nicolas Cage (World Trade Center), George Clooney (The Good German), Matt Damon (The Good Shepherd), Leonardo DiCaprio (The Departed --my theory is that people will wise up soon about Blood Diamond and their attention will revert back to the earlier film), Ryan Gosling (Half Nelson), Jude Law (Breaking and Entering), Derek Luke (Catch a Fire), Jack Nicholson (The Departed), Peter O'Toole (Venus), Will Smith (The Pursuit of Happyness), Forrest Whitaker (Last King of Scotland)
Musical/Comedy: Woody Allen (Scoop), Sacha Baron Cohen (Borat), Johnny Depp (Pirates 2), Joseph Cross (Running With Scissors), Aaron Eckhard (Thank You For Smoking), Will Ferrell (Stranger Than Fiction), Jamie Foxx (Dreamgirls), Gregg Kinnear (Little Miss Sunshine), Robin Williams (Man of the Year)
I'm not completely serious about some of the bolded names. But I just can't figure where all these nominations are going to go in a weak year for men...
This is where it gets really interesting... Early on in the year Oscar's Best Actress category was looking to be unusually competitive. But since then, Helen Mirren (The Queen) has emerged as your every other year or so "unbeatable frontrunner." Yet, since the Globes have two separate categories, all sorts of fun & glamorous things could happen for Hollywood's female stars. The big question, from my way of looking at it, is how or if the HFPA members will find room for all four of their oft-favored pets: Scarlett Johansson, Annette Bening, Renée Zellweger, and Nicole Kidman. These women are looking less and less like true factors in the actual Oscar race but should you underestimate their appeal to the Hollywood Foreign Press Association? Probably not.
Drama: If you believe the groupthink buzz on Oscar's eventual lineup you've got four strong leaders: Cate Blanchett (The Good German), Judi Dench (Notes on a Scandal), Helen Mirren (The Queen), and Kate Winslet (Little Children). BUT... with the Globes you never really know. They've been known to throw major curves. Plus there's still one free spot even if they don't.
Since they love movies stars who knows where this spot could go? Kirsten Dunst (Marie Antoinette --UPDATE: campaigning for a comedy/musical spot apparently)? Nicole Kidman (Fur)? --she is a favorite, Ashley Judd (Come Early Morning) ? --they gave her a surprise nod for De-Lovely, or a rising star like Maggie Gyllenhaal (Sherrybaby), Gretchen Mol (Notorious Bettie Page) or Sienna Miller (Factory Girl). Who knows... maybe they'll take David Lynch up on his crazy ass FYC campaign for Laura Dern (Inland Empire). Remember how crazy this category was for the Globes in 2003?
Whaddya think readers? Do they kiss Kidman's ass again or look elsewhere? Could this be the only place Dunst scores --or will they accept the comedy designation? Could Maggie continue her rise through the actress ranks? Might the Globes snub one of the four leaders?
Musical/Comedy: I think you can probably ink in nominations for Annette Bening (Running With Scissors) and Meryl Streep (The Devil Wears Prada) but beyond the Hollywood royalty there are a lot of possibilities. Beyoncé (Dreamgirls) seems obvious BUT there's the Jennifer Hudson factor to consider. Might they pull a Chicago and nominate both of them as leads? They were both leads @ the TONYs when Dreamgirls was on Broadway?
But if Hudson goes supporting (Where Oscar'll probably put her) we still have two spots available. Penelope Cruz (Volver) is all the rage at the moment and easy to see as a nominee --UPDATE: But though the film is a tragicomedy, it's apparently being sold to the Globe voters as a drama! Hmmmm. You can't really ink her in. Both Scarlett Johansson (Scoop) and Renée Zellweger (Miss Potter) are like finely cut cocaine to Globe voters so both of them could muscle their way in. There's the Christmas timed comedy The Holiday with two contenders (Winslet again and Cameron Diaz) and then there's the real possibility of Toni Collette (Little Miss Sunshine) or Catherine O'Hara (For Your Consideration) here. Because, sometimes... only sometimes... the Globes rule.