Sunday, November 19, 2006

I've Got Sunshine... and Oscar Predictions

Before Thanksgiving hits and brings with it much holiday madness & movie watching along with festive face stuffing & belt loosening, I thought I'd update the ol' Oscar prediction pages. This is my final pre-precursor guesswork. I presume you all know how this works: Once December hits about 97 organizations (a slight exaggeration, yes) and 500+ critics (not an exaggeration) start issuing their proclamations of "BEST OF THE YEAR!"

I love this process. I loathe this process. 'If only everyone had my good taste,' he says with (half) a straight face.

Oscar voters, though they live in industry bubbles, presumably absorb this "BEST OF THE YEAR!" information and are --to arguably varying degrees-- influenced by it. At the very least it informs the overall media-soaked climate in which they selfishly go about choosing their favorites: a 6000+ person process wherein people like Dakota Fanning, Sally Kirkland, Ron Howard and Jamie Foxx personally destroy desperate hopes of awardage for your favorites by discarding them for theirs. It's a public process about a personal thing: taste in film.

Every year about this time about three of the eventual five nominees in any given category are already widely agreed upon, usually due to a happy combo of box office, buzz, and perceptions of quality. The final two slots always seem up for grabs until the precursors begin to do their sometimes volatile winnowing work, a nightmarish or fantastical process (depending on what you like and how well it's doing) wherein everyone shouts "pick me! pick me! pick me!" and then: the picking.

Today I've been tempted to pick Little Miss Sunshine. I'm not sure how much good campaigns and swag have to do with overall affection for a given performer or movie but they do have short term effects if you're human (and honest). For example: When this little minivan (pictured left) arrived in my mailbox the other day, I felt a teensy new wave of affection for Little Miss Sunshine wash right over me... and it's not even one of my favorite films of the year! (Please note Sunshine fans: I did enjoy. Just not as much as you)

There I was, a casual liker, suddenly feeling like a true fan. That is the potential power of sweet spot hitting campaigns and promotion. Fox Searchlight has done a great job keeping Little Miss Sunshine in play (and in theaters) and it's starting to look like it just might pay off.

Here are the new Oscar predictions in all categories along with (mostly) new or revised commentary: Best Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor and other delectable things like Best Costume Design, Foreign Films, Screenplays and other Visual and Aural categorical delights.

If you look forward to my Oscar coverage each year please consider donating to the site. It's free to read but it isn't free to operate.

Things will heat up (for real with the first wave of precursors) very soon so take this time now to dream, however improbably, about your personal favorites making the shortlists. Discuss your dreams and fears for this awards season in the comments.

tags: Academy Awards, movies, Oscars, Hollywood

85 comments:

Anonymous said...

FOR YOUR F.B. CONSIDERATION:


BEST ACTRESS
Kate Winslet- Little Children

BEST ACTOR
Leonardo DiCaprio- The Departed

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Little Children

BEST FILM EDITING
United 93

adam k. said...

I can't believe it's come to the point where most people think Kate won't get a nom. A few months ago, she was the frontrunner. And it's not like the actual film or performance have disappointed in any way, other than "not getting traction" with the public. But did Iris have traction with the public? Did Eternal Sunshine have traction with the public?

I still think Kate will make it. I am true believer. Basically, it's looking like Kate vs. Cate for the 5th spot, and which of those two do they love more? Exactly. Combine that with the fact that Cate with a C has another film that can get her into the far less competitive supporting category, and I think Kate with a K ekes this one out.

But maybe that's wishful thinking? I think you can guess my greatest awards-season fear.

And I haven't even seen Little Children yet. I love Kate with a K THAT much.

Arkaan said...

Adam K, it's good that you're a true believer. Kate deserves it.

But, take a look at this

Gross for ESotSM: 34 million
Gross for Iris: 5.6 million
Gross for Little Children: 1.3 million

New Line has yet to expand the film to beyond 37 theatres (for those keeping track, that's approximately HALF of what Shortbus got and 1/3 of Half Nelson and The Last King of Scotland). Forget traction, this film has barely been released. And New Line doesn't look to be furthering that.

Additionally, I'd argue that the film DID fail in terms of critics. This film needed critics to rave about it, and most didn't love it (sure, they liked it, but not the outpouring of love a cold, unbaity film about suburbia with tricky sexual politics needed). Winslet won't get those critics awards she needed (right now, both Mirren and Cruz are ahead of her in that department).

I also agree that it's Cate vs Kate for the nod. I happen to think that Nate's hugely overestimating Babel (he has it at 9 nods, and I think it'll be lucky to get 2) - so supporting actress is wide open and the blatant category fraud that'll take place with Notes on a Scandal (Cate's lead, but will definitely be pushed support) and the possibility that The Good German will not be the academy's cup of tea (though a recent NY times article did give it a tonne of positive press) and that means Winslet is still in the race. But just barely.

vince said...

For Your Consideration:

Abdelkader Bara, Best Supporting Actor, Babel

Parker Posey, Best Supporting Actress, Superman Returns

15 year old blogger said...

To Arkaan:

If critics didn't love Little Children they why has it already beaten The Queen for Broadcast Critics fav. movie of the month of October?

And I am a die hard Little Children fan, and if you go on imdb.com you will see me (movietvwatcher) and many other board members mad at New Line for not doing what it should be doing. We should have already been at 100+ theatres already!!! But New Line just sent out Screeners for the movie, which should help!

Kamikaze Camel said...

Adam, Eternal Sunshine was a weak year for Best Actress if I remember correctly and Iris had nominated Dench and winning Broadbent. Little Children has come up short in the reviews and box office department. And with so many other contenders... it never became the In the Bedroom like success that people thought, so while she's still in there with a fight I don't think she'll get nommed. Not at this point in time anyway.

Most of the other predictions seem pretty right. I don't think Babel will get in anyway unless it starts being nommed left and right. And I still think Greengrass is getting that lone director spot. This is the branch that nominated Fernando Meirelles for a film that made $10mil and was released in January. 12 months before ballots were out. So time and money really has no effect there.

Gerry said...

Ruth Myers is the Costume Designer for "The Painted Veil". Considering she also had "Infamous" out this year, I'd say a nod is possible.

I'd also say it's very possible for "The Prestige" to at least score somewhere. Nolan is a highly respected director and the design work is superb (let's not forget the debatable snub for Crowley last year as well). I'd at least have Crowley and Bergin more in contention.

Overall, however, I really do like your work so thanks for the update.

As far as this whole Cate vs. Kate debate is going, I'd still lean towards Winslet because they have another opportunity to award Blanchett in a much weaker category. Though "Little Children"'s box office run is admittedly abysmal (I certainly wouldn't have it at #7 is BP).

And while I am certainly predicting Cruz, I don't feel she's as assured as people think, especially if Beyonce also "surprises people" in a film that's headed to far more nominations.

Anonymous said...

I too think Kate will squeeze in. But a shame that it's looking as though she's going to miss out again on her fifth try. Don't even get me going on the opportunities they had with Iris (WHY didn't they feel that turn - the best in the movie - more than Connolly's solid but ultimately uninspiring turn?) and Sense & Sensibility (Sorvino was fun, sure, but... come ON!)... And don't get me going on the Holy Smoke snub either.

Sorry, I'm off on a tangent.

I also can't believe how World Trade Center is still getting higher placing on prediction lists than United 93, which I think is going to get serious traction back once the Top 10s start emerging. It's so overwhelmingly the better of the two films that I feel like having a Kathy Bates in Misery moment each time I see WTC on prediction lists:

"Have you all got AMNESIA? Jesus handed a guy some bottled water in it! THAT'S your best picture nominee?!"

Rob

Anonymous said...

I say Pan's Labyrinth will make it in Original Screenplay

NATHANIEL R said...

Rob,

believe me I think United 93 is the far stronger picture two (though neither are a favorite. But the people who like Seabiscuit Finds Neverland will much prefer World Trade Center

but look the numerically rankings are always a little misleading. Basically it's tiers.

Tier 1 the predictions.
Tier 2 the ones who might and could make it.
Tier 3 the vote siphoners.

on any given day people might jump back and forth as to who is ahead, truly.

It's weird to me that people doubt Babel as much as they do --especially considering it's competition also has huge strikes against it. I didn't love it but it certainly felt like a BP type of social epic, albeit one with a little more international flavor.

GERRY --thanks for the info on Myers. It's so weird to me that IMDB so often skips listing the costume design name (at least before a movie opens) ... i can't quite figure that because costuming work has to be done before a movie films. It's not like the score (whose credited person is also often not listed)

Arkaan said...

To 15 year old blogger

While I wasn't aware of Little Children's status with the BFC, I'm willing to wager that once we see the critics awards underway, the movie will lose out on most major ones. I say this as someone who, pre-Toronto Film Fest, was expecting Little Children to be a dominant force. I do agree screeners should help, but I'm wondering if the Oscar antecedent is not In the Bedroom but The Ice Storm (tricky sexual politics, cold look at suburbia, low box office).

Or maybe I'm just jealous because I still haven't seen it.

Kamikaze Camel said...

One thing with Babel is that it's box-office is plateauing (is that a word?) It made $5mil in its first week of limited release and looks to make roughly $3mil this week. If it keeps falling like that it'll barely made $20mil and without THE performance (such as Phillip Seymour Hoffman, which turned a small movie into a random BP nominee) I just don't think it can make it. Plus, it's very polarising. About half the people who saw it despised it.

Whereas The Queen is still in limited release (ie; not blowing their wad too early), is pretty much at least well-liked by everyone who sees it and has a big central performance with which to base everything around.

Babel has a whole lot of supporting contenders who could all easily interfere with one another (no matter how you slice it, Rinko Kikuchi and Adriana Barazza are no Helen Mirren and Maggie Smith)

/rant

Kamikaze Camel said...

or for that matter Frances McDormand and Kate Hudson (respected actress + newcomer Hollywood royalty)

Jeff said...

Pursuit of Happyness is an original, not adapted screenplay. I also think that screeplay is the film's best shot apart from Smith.

Ryan said...

Oh F*uck, the Globes and Oscars for a moment….

I just can’t wait to see who will join Bjork, Watts, Moore, Thurman, Benning and Allen for the Best Actress Film Bitch Award. Nat’s tricky, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Streep beat out Mirren in a Bening over Staunton type deal, but who knows? The Best Actor Film Bitch Award race also looks rather exciting. I’m just hoping DiCaprio joins Crudup, McGregor, Campbell, Depp, Bridges and Ledger for the Gold but then, Nat’s yet to see the frontrunners Smith and O’Toole so hmmm. And just to throw something out there; I could actually see Daniel Craig getting a nom for Casino Royale. A wild maybe, but first I think I should read Nat’s review.

As for Best Director, I think Scorsese will make Nat’s lineup even if he choices to be bitchy and snub The Departed. Just a guess. We all know Pedro will make it and I think Coppola is a safe bet as well.

In terms of Best Picture, I’m just crossing my fingers Little Children will make his final five. If Marie- Antoinette (which I actually did like) makes the cut over it, I’ll be very, very sad. At least I know Children is a shoe- in for a screenplay nod… maybe even a win?

God, the Film Bitch Awards are so less depressing than this year's Oscar race.

eric said...

I NEED YOU PEOPLE’S HELP!

This is kinda of off topic, but does anyone disagree with any of the following films being the definitive critical darlings of their respective years?

1995: Sense & Sensibility
(Leaving Las Vegas?)
1996: Fargo (The English Patient?)
1997: L.A. Confidential
1998: Saving Private Ryan
1999: American Beauty

2000: Traffic
(Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon?)
2001: Mulholland Dr.
(In the Bedroom?)
2002: Far From Heaven
2003: The Lord of the Rings III (Lost in Translation?)
2004: Sideways
2005: Brokeback Mountain

And what do you think this year’s critical darling will be?

NATHANIEL R said...

aw, thanks Ryan.

I did start working on them --just pulling a list of contenders for some of the categories so far. There are 12 semifinalist women screaming "pick me" for my Best Actress lineup... and honestly, I'm not sure who I'm gonna pick. I probably spend too much time debating it with myself ;)

supporting actress --there are 16 women in consideration. And I have NO idea who I'm going to write about for Stinky's Blog-a-Thon. But i have a month to decide still...

I have 8 movies left to see that seem full of possibility for my own awards: Dreamgirls, Notes on a Scandal, The Fountain, Inland Empire, Breaking and Entering, The Good German, Perfume, and Pan's Labyrinth as well as about 10 more that I don't expect to figure but who knows... maybe they'll surprise.

I love this time of year. And I love that for once the studios aren't making people wait till February to see the films... well, at least not as much as usual --my condolences go out to those in flyover areas who still have to wait for DVD to see things like Shortbus

NATHANIEL R said...

eric --off the top of my head I would never say that SPR was the critics darling from 1998. Thin Red Line or Truman Show maybe? I'm having difficulty remembering but i wouldn't say Ryan

and for 2003 definitely LiT

Arkaan said...

The Film Bitch Awards are always complicated. Last year's battle between History of Violence vs Brokeback Mountain remains the highlight of the critical season (I recommend looking at it again: in their head to head battles, Brokeback won actor, screenplay and picture; Violence won director, supporting actress and editing - you get the feeling that this race was as close as Nathaniel has ever gotten to declaring a tie).

This year's tricky. First off - he's seen no "A" films. Generally, there are at least 1-3 making his best picture line-up (even in the nadir of 2003 we had Return of the King). I'm hoping Shortbus makes it to his line-up in a big way. Lindsay Beamish has given my favourite supporting performance of the year so far (the dominatrix) and I would love to see her nominated. I also expect Children of Men to be hugely recognized in the craft categories. But other than that... I don't know.

re: Critics picks

Eric, I'd say Fargo and Sense and Sensibility are the right choices for those years. Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon over Traffic in 2000, Mulholland Drive in 2001, Lost in Translation in 2003. I agree with the rest.

This year? Hard to tell. Volver? seems like the best bet at this point.

Jack said...

Re: Critical Darling

I was thinking about Little Children, maybe? I've seen it and I agree with 15.

15 year old blogger said...

http://theenvelope.latimes.com
/columnists/env-buzzmeter-iframe-index,0,2003329.htmlstory?show=oscars

That's a link to goldderby.com and it shows the "Buzzmeter" for the Oscars.

eric said...

Arkaan...

Yes, a close race is always fun but when you REALLY love one of those movies its tough. There was a brief moment when I was actually scared Nat would succumb to the favorite- lash that tends to follow any film that is both a critical darling and has gained mainstream accessibility (Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon, Lost in Translation, Sideways). You know the ‘if everyone likes it then it can’t be my number one’ type thing. But he didn’t and THANK GOD! A History of Violence is a beautifully subversive gem but Brokeback is in a class all its own.

NOTE: The only positive aspect about the Academy’s infamous cop-out was that now Brokeback will join the ranks of Goodfellas, The Piano, Pulp Fiction, Fargo, Saving Private Ryan, Traffic, The Pianist, and Sideways as films to innovative, provocative and intelligent for mainstream Best Picture status- versus joining the middle- brow beacon likes of Forrest Gump, Braveheart, Shakespeare in Love, Chicago, Gladiator and (ahh) A Beautiful Mind.

And yes, in terms of The Critical Darling of 2006, Volver stands a decent chance but there’s gonna be fierce competition from The Departed, Little Miss Sunshine, Little Children and The Queen.

NATHANIEL R said...

Arkaan,
the lack of A films this year is sad for me. I don't know what's happening. I still haven't seen anything even close to as great as A History of Violence or Brokeback (but even so I've been more generous with A- than usual... some of these could be B+ easy) but at least there's lots of good stuff this year. 2006 lacks the couple of greats of a 2003 (my worst year of decade) but it has more very goods, so it's in fierccccce competition for worst year of decade. Yay! Er...

Anonymous said...

For Eric:

The critics' picks in the end-of-year Premiere lists were as follows:

1995 - Crumb (Babe the top ranking of the Oscar nominees)
1996 - Big Night (Secrets & Lies the top of the Oscar nominees)
1997 - L.A. Confidential
1998 - Shakespeare In Love
1999 - Election (American Beauty and The Insider jointly placed of the Oscar nominees)
2000 - No list
2001 - Apocalypse Now Redux (In The Bedroom the top ranking of the Oscar nominees)
2002 - Talk To Her (LOTR: The Two Towers the top ranking of the Oscar nominees)
2003 - Finding Nemo and LOTR: The Return of the King jointly at #1 (Lost In Translation was #3)
2004 - Sideways
2005 - Grizzly Man (Brokeback Mountain the top ranking of the Oscar nominees) (Crash was #58. Just thought I'd throw that in!)

Whether this is remotely definitive or of interest I don't know. But it's interesting at least...

Rob

JavierAG said...

Little Children and The Queen fighting for this year's critical darling spot? Lol. More like "Volver" vs. "Shortbus" maybe, or something.

I am of the opinion that 2005 sucked really bad (self-importance much), and in comparison 06 seems rather jolly ("Volver" and "Pan's Labyrinth" are better than anything last year in my eyes). But it's still sort of... sucky.

It's sad to see "Volver" doing so bad in these predictions, but I say it still has a shot - if it wins, say, NFSC and/or NYFCC.

"Pan's Labyrinth" should be in strong consideration in all of the technical categories, bar none.

Is Gong Li good enough to fight for that fifth slot?

What happens if "Babel", "Little Miss Sunshine" and "Dreamgirls" fail critically or are ignored by the NBR and precursors?

Hmmm... Me, crossing my fingers for Perfume, Almodovar, Daniel Craig, Laura Dern and Carmen Maura.

Sid said...

Nat -- going by Alex Fung's compilation, SPR was indeed the critics #1 film.
http://www.geocities.com/Hollywood/Theater/6696/98topflm.htm

The Thin Red Line has grown in popularity over time. I don't remember the film being worshipped as it is now.

SCC said...

Not sure if you're aware of this or not, but Paramount's given up on Flags, deciding instead to focus their efforts on World Trade Center and Babel, and Eastwood's follow-up, Letters from Iwo Jima, is now a 2006 release. This one's rumored to be far superior, and audience reaction has been superb thus far. Although, admittedly, it faces an uphill battle being a Japanese language film with perspective on "the enemy".

If anything, Ken Watanabe needs to be added as a possibility in Best Actor.

NATHANIEL R said...

scc --according to what I read just yesterday, Iwo Jima has been moved to 2006 (qualifyer) so unless it changed yesterday...

MacTheMovieguy said...

FOR YOUR CONSIDERATION:

Best Picture:
The Departed
V For Vendetta
United 93


Best Director:
Martin Scorsece- The Departed
Wachowski Bros- V For Vendetta
Marc Forster- Stranger Than Fiction

Best Actor:
Hugo Weaving- V For Vendetta
Will Ferrell- Stranger Than Fiction
Alec Baldwin- Mini's First Time
Patrick Wilson- Hard Candy

Best Actress:
Meryl Streep- Devil Wears Prada
Ellen Page- Hard Candy

Best Supporting Actor:
Steve Carell- Little Miss Sunshine
Tom Wilkinson- The Last Kiss
Stanley Tucci- Devil Wears Prada

Best Supporting Actress:
Jill Clayburgh- Running With Scissors
Emily Blunt- Devil Wears Prada
Abigail Breslin- Little Miss Sunshine
Blythe Danner- The Last Kiss

John T. said...

The problem with Little Children is that it hasn't been able to make any money because it's not opening properly. It should have expanded into all major art house venues by now, and yet they haven't. The buzz is now dissipating, and only the most devoted of fans are going to go out and see it now. It'll have to have an Oscar push, which, without some art house buzzing throughout the year, it won't receive. Man, I'm bummed I probably won't see this film.

adam k. said...

Maybe New Line is waiting for further into the awards season to roll it out further? I don't recall In The Bedroom getting much box office before it got those award noms either. Anyway, they've already given Kate Winslet her own personal FYC ad, and they are sending out screeners, so it looks like there will be a campaign. And as long as the film is even on their radar screen, I think Kate has the edge over Kate, Annette and Beyoncé.

I totally thought Eternal Sunshine was the test of how much they truly loved Kate, but is this the real test? They have a chance this year to prove how much they really love her.

adam k. said...

second Kate = Cate... oy

Anonymous said...

Nathaniel, you've seen Notes on a Scandal and removed Blanchett from your predictions... Is she bad or anything???
Please, tell me I'm wrong!

Anonymous said...

I think Baren Cohen stands a better chance than Gosling.

Anonymous said...

It is not Movie City News pushing Jennifer Hudson for Best Actress, its the pimp David Poland, who, rather than commenting as an objective analyst, is like a stock analyst who pimps a stock because he has a vested interest in trying to influence the outcome. Look at his shameless plugging of Will Smith in the usual tear jerker.

15 year old blogger said...

I wouldn't be surprised if Shohreh Agdashloo gets a nod for THE NATIVITY STORY. She didn't get a SAG or a GOLDEN GLOBE nod for House of Sand and Fog, but she got an Oscar nom.

And Adam K. I think the Academy already has shown Winslet that they love her by nominating her 4 times, but also nominating her for Iris. She also didn't get nominated for a SAG, but she did get the Academy's vote and I do think that they will nominate her. She is too good in the movie not to be forgotten.

adam k. said...

15-year-old,

That is my thinking as well, but many seem to disagree with me. This year there's just so much competition that I think another nom for Winslet would up the ante on their love.

15 year old blogger said...

I believe that we can count Annette Benning out of this race, no?

15 year old blogger said...

Little Children just keeps on getting better. I watched it my second time on Monday and third on Tuesday. You guys NEED to see that movie! Kate Winslet was wasted at the Q & A on Monday, though.

NATHANIEL R said...

i'm not sure we can totally count Bening out. It looks like we can now but we've still got precursors to get through. A lot can still happen. The Globes will certainly push her profile back up.

and if Eternal Sunshine was a test of how well they loved Kate (a film that didn't do too well, a genre they don't like, early release) maybe Scissors will be a test of how well they love Annette. She's only really been snubbed once (for Bugsy)...

anon --I haven't seen Notes yet. I see it in a few days.

and another question. Why is Volver only on six screens? It's nearing one million dollars in revenue but with all the press buildup and the Viva Pedro series prior to its release shouldn't they have gone a teensy bit wider for Volver's first two weeks? I hope they don't wait much longer.

Dennis Bee said...

If the Academy has a rule against co-directors, it was established since 1978, when Warren Beatty and Buck Henry were nominated for HEAVEN CAN WAIT. Robert Wise and Jerome Robbins won in 1961 for WEST SIDE STORY.

I can think of no reason why co-directors could not be nominated; these days that would rule out prominent brother teams like the Wachowskis and the Weitzes.

NATHANIEL R said...

maybe it's only the DGA?

but then, if they don't have a rule against it why was the female co-director of CITY OF GOD not nominated for that film?

JavierAG said...

I don't think Katia Lund was actually a "co-director"; from what I understand she was more of an "actors' director" or something like that, but she certainly made a scandal about her being a co-director *after* the Oscar nominations.

Gerry said...

The credits on "City of God" read as following:
"Directed by Fernando Meirelles"
"Co-Directed by Katia Lund"

Same reason a "co=producer" isn't eligible.

So I don't see why the LMS husband-wife duo wouldn't be eligible considering they are both listed under "directed by"; that said, I really doubt they will even though I am predicting the film for BP.
The DGA also really frowns upon co-directors (I do believe they are ineligible).

Kamikaze Camel said...

I believe the Academy has a rule that excludes co-directors unless they are a recognised directing team such as the Wachowski Brothers or the Dardenne Brothers. If Eastwood and Spielberg randomly co-directed a movie together they would be inneligable or whatever the rule actually is (they have to choose one over the other maybe)

I had a crazy dream last night that Daniel Craig was nominated for an Oscar and I was really excited even though I haven't seen Casino Royale nor am I a fan of Craig's particularly.

In respect to what will be the critics favourites this year, I would bet on it being The Departed, The Queen and United 93. It seems the first two are gonna be nominated anyway and 93 only has a very remote chance, so the critics should be happy this year.

BTW, Dave Poland is Movie City News.

On Flags of Iwo Jima, for it to score a BP nod it has to overcome the foreign-language bias. It has to overcome the first-film-was-a-flop status. It has to overcome the fact that Ken Watanabe is it's biggest star. It has to overcome the desperate award-grabbing antics of the studio (actually, that's not a problem, lol). I doubt it'll come into play anywhere that much, but are it's techs all done by the same people as Flags? That could get difficult.

BTW, in terms of Film Bitch awards, I don't think Scorsese will make it and Nat won't be being "bitchy" if The Departed doesn't make it.

Golden Flower and Casino Royale grades are encouraging, but it looks like For Your Consideration (despite your positive-mild grade) is dying a quick death. What happened there?

(sorry this was so long, but there was a lot to reply to)

Kamikaze Camel said...

BTW, you know what thing I am actually sort of starting to think could be heard of nomination morning?

"The nominees for best performance by an actress in a leading role are... Abigail Breslan for Little Miss Sunshine" (cute picture of Breslan pops up on the screen, journos go into fits of "ooh"s and "wow"s. I just keep remembering 2003 when Hughes and Morton randomly popped up. Could it happen again this year?

Kevin said...

Got this from this kid at Oscar and the ciTy:
I just had to post this:

http://www.imdb.com/gallery/granitz
/2387/Events/2387/NicoleKidm_Caulf_
2086892_400.jpg.html?
path=pgallery&path_key=Weinstein,%
20Harvey

There's not point to this except that the way Nicole Kidman is looking at Harvey Weinstein.

CL said...

In response to Nathaniel's reply somewhere up there about movies he hasn't seen... I got to catch the SAG Nom Comm screenings of Breaking and Entering and The Fountain, and I've been wondering why both have been notoriously absent from most of the Oscar predictions on virtually all Oscar sites. The Fountain definitely won't be getting a Best Picture nod but Hugh Jackman definitely deserves a nomination if not a win, as do the visual effects. Breaking and Entering doesn't seem to be getting much buzz, but it is definitely a worthy film, especially in the Screenplay category.

Am I the only one surprised that a 15 year old has seen Little Children twice? I'm pretty sure when I was that age it would have been over my head.

15 year old blogger said...

I've seen it trice! And it's because I have read the book. I also the reason I have seen it three times is becuase I went to the Q & A's on Monday and Tuesday night of last week.

Should have seen Todd Field's face when I said "See ya tomorrow."

The Awards Greenhouse said...

Oh Nate, now come on =P. You KNOW Winslet will get an Oscar nom. Certainly over Blanchett. (I don't really buy that accent of hers.) Like you said, Blanchett misses out more often. Plus, Winslet has so much love, as noted with her 4 nominations prior to the age of 30.

Also, Little Children is FINALLY getting a boost. New Line decided to give it a push and release FYC ads. ALSO, they distributed screeners to the Academy--again, FINALLY--to help boost its campaign. Their ads mostly feature Winslet and occasionally Wilson for now, so Haley and Somerville need precursor assistance, which I think they will get. But it's safe to say our dear old Kate is unlikely to miss out. I think Streep is the least safe, seeing as how there are so many old broads, but for now, she seems a likely fifth slot.

For the most part though, I love your predictions =)--perhaps because they practically mirror mine, haha. I am not sure about Supporting Actress though. I think it'd be great to see both Babel ladies make it, but Kikuchi has the biggest buzz and acclaim at the moment. I don't trust Thompson really--the film seems likely to get overlooked. I DO think Farmiga will get in though. She gave a fantastic performance in a male-dominated film, and always held her own. She turned what could've been a stock role into an interesting and complex character. She's very appealing. She DID randomly win the LAFCA last year. And, like you said, she was a strong female in a Scorsese flick. I believe she'll ride Marty's coattails =P.

Also, I believe Gyllenhaal will get in as a collective nod for her numerous performances this year. Just like Keener last year, she'll nab a Critics Award or two for her body of work, but probably get in for World Trade Center, her strongest supporting performance. (Sherrybaby is impossible, because Lead is just too crowded.)

Oh, by the way, I have good news for you =). Earlier, I said how Volver's producers ran Cruz in Drama--turns out HFPA said "bull****" and put her back in Comedy! And even better, they decided that Hudson is staying supporting! This is all great news. I think this basically signifies that Hudson will be in the supporting race, as I figured all along (damn you, Poland, and your intended controversy). So now Cruz -COULD- win over Streep in her respective category and Hudson pretty much WILL win in hers.

But the less-satisfying news? They bumped Breslin to leading status, so she'll be running alongside Cruz and Streep. I'm not too surprised. I'm more surprised that they also decided Blanchett will run for leading--for both The Good German AND Notes on a Scandal, and probably be cancelled out by Dench for the latter...in addition to cancelling herself out with both. This reminds me of when they ran Gyllenhaal as leading last year and Ledger creamed his chances, not to mention he creamed himself with Jarhead in the running too.

So I think Blanchett will be this year's Gyllenhaal at the Globes, but get in for Supporting at SAG for Notes--MAYBE. That category is finally strengthening, so we shall see, I guess, right?

Well, that's all for now =). I'll check back later to see if you replied.

Anonymous said...

what about a nom for nicole kidman in Fur??

Kamikaze Camel said...

anon above, that is about as likely as my foot being nominated for Best Supporting Actor for a movie it never even appeared in.

Awards Greenhouse, the thing is... those decisions aren't stupid. They're just correct. Breslan is the lead. I'm sure Blanchett and Dench are co-leads. Gyllenhaal was a co-lead last year.

Does anyone know if there's a rule like with the Academy that says a person (ie, Blanchett) can't get two nominations in one category?

Oh, did anybody else get a kick out of reading that Ledger creamed Gyllenhaal and then Gyllenhaal creamed himself? :/ teehee

JavierAG said...

Penelope Cruz is back in comedy? That singlehandedly made my day.

crazycris said...

Volver a comedy? Oh please!!! Give me a break!!! Who would consider a story about mending broken family relationships due in large part to abuse a comedy?!!! Just because there are some funny moments... argh!!!

ralch said...

I think Judi Dench is as much a lock as Cold Mountain was in 2003. For me, the only two sure bets in the actress category are Helen Mirren and Meryl Streep. The remaining three, I am iclined to believe will be Winslet, Cruz and (my wild card option) Gyllenhaal for "Sherrybaby".

ralch said...

Kamikaze:

I think Nicole has a slightly better chance than your foot... but I don't see it happening, anyway.

ralch said...

Unless Catherine O'Hara is lead, in which case she replaces Gyllenhaal.

JavierAG said...

Whatever it is, "Volver" is certainly not a drama. Now Cruz can actually win the Globe.

Arkaan said...

kamiakze, the academy indeed has a rule that disallows actors (only actors) for being nominated in the same category. Directors can (see Soderbergh) as can writers (see Oliver Stone circa 1986 with Platoon and Salvaor), as can everyone else, but performers are not allowed to.

The Golden Globes have no such rule (in 1992, they nominated Tim Robbins for best actor/comedy twice, for The Player and Bob Roberts). I woudln't be surprised to see Blanchett nominated twice by them for lead (she's won once and been nodded four times in the last 8 years, so they do like her somewhat), especially with an empty category (guys, they can't nominate Cruz or Streep for drama, so they have Mirren, Dench, Blanchett, Blanchett, Winslet. Or they can drop Blanchett twice and nominate.... who? Renee and Gyllenhaal, likely. So substitute Blanchett for Renee (once) and you have a likely final lineup.).

Anonymous said...

Unless Renee is in a comedy. Is she?

Andy Scott said...

I so agree with you about 2006 being a dissapointing year at the movies. Pratically everything I've seen - save The Departed and The Queen - has been either bland or good but not great. It's pretty frustrating. I keep waiting for that one movie to come along and shake things up, but alas. I haven't seen it yet (Good news for Dreamgirls, perhaps?)

Andy Scott said...

Oh, and my dream nominees - of the ones that really have no shot - would be Matt Damon for The Departed and Emily Blunt for The Devil Wears Prada. Ugh.

Anonymous said...

I'm hesitating over Dench for Notes. You know me, obsessive Dench fan, but - from the trailer - even I am not feeling the nomination (much as I can't wait to see the film).

If we get Streep, Mirren, Winslet, Cruz AND Dench, I'll just pass out. Life isn't going to be that kind to me... is it?

(A year ago I'd have honed in on Cruz in that line-up and wondered what on earth I was talking about, but I LOVE her performance in Volver!)

Rob

NATHANIEL R said...

i love it too rob.

i wouldn't say she "surprised" me --given that Pedro is good with actors and obviously he saw something in her that was difficult to see otherwise. But I was pleasantly rewarded for my faith in Pedro (though about the singing --lipsynching... ;) )

Budget said...

Kamikaze:

Nicole Kidman definitely has more chance than your foot!!!

Kamikaze Camel said...

Okay, maybe she does, but not by much.

The performance that will surprise me from Penelope will be when she gives a great awards-worthy perf in English. Surely everyone knew she could act in Spanish, right?!

Kamikaze Camel said...

and Zellweger's Miss Potter is in Musical/Comedy. Right?

NATHANIEL R said...

I don't know. I am personally starting an FYC campaign for Glenn's foot. It is really really amazing and demonstrates just oodles of range.

Plus, feet: that's so de-glam!

Kamikaze Camel said...

teehee. My feet have never been so proud in their life!

Naughty Nathaniel said...

What's up with you fags and feet? I just wanted to know. Do you stick those up your ass to?

Anonymous said...

So, having either forgotten kamikaze's actual name, I assumed Nathaniel was talking about Glenn Close.

scc said...

Nat... That's exactly what I said. :-)

Kamikaze Camel said...

Anon, my name is indeed Glenn. Although maybe if there was a campaign Glenn Close could actually win cause you just know they think she deserves one.

The Awards Greenhouse said...

You're damn right Glenn Close deserves one. But let's not get into that. Or Joan Cusack. Or Sigourney Weaver. Or Michelle Pfeiffer. Or Kate Winslet. (I could do this all day.)

Hehe, you know Kamikaze, I swear, that creaming portion was COMPLETELY unintentional. But I now feel so proud ^_^v.

Ugh, Nate, MORE crazy HFPA updates from Tom. This is insane:

*Cruz was declared DRAMA--AGAIN!--after being moved to Comedy for less than a day. And apparently, Drama is where she stays. Streep, say hello to Globe #6.

*Blanchett......IS SUPPORTING FOR NOTES! The Globes accepted the studio's appeal for her going double-lead. She could now, potentially, get two noms, or just one for Notes (apparently, HFPA ain't digging German too much).

*Richard Griffiths and The History Boys (get ready for this doozy)...are ALSO declared Drama. As if enough category frauds weren't being made, Griffiths joins O'Toole in comedic roles in the Drama category. O'Toole will get in--but Griffiths is surely snubbed.

*Miss Potter has been declared a Drama (a la Finding Neverland), but dear old Harvey is appealing that now.

*HFPA apparently likes Blood Diamond, so chances are DiCaprio will get a nom for that over The Departed in lead--although APPARENTLY, they also love that film. We shall see. Good luck, Marty!

As Chandler might say, "Could this season BE any more of a pain in the ass?!"

NATHANIEL R said...

see this is why i don't follow whatever Tom's writing'greenhouse (as your earlier comments protested about) because HFPA are prone to change things at the drop of a hat. Better to just guess I think.

Craig Hickman said...

I just read a writer who claimed Jennifer Hudson would win the Oscar whether she was nominated for Best Actress, Best Supporting Acress, or Best Short Film.

Can she really be THAT good?

Bernardo said...

I seriously recommend Nathaniel to find a way to watch Pan's Labyrinth before announcing the FilmBitch awards. It is by far the best of the 30 movies I've seen this year. I could even consider it my favorite fantasy film of all times. It is my only 9/10 in the whole year.

For your Consideration:

Adriana Barraza - Babel (S. Actress)
Greg Kinnear - Little Miss Sunshine (Actor)
Yohana Cobo & Blanca Portillo - Volver (S. Actress)
Science of Sleep (Art Direction)
Temporada de Patos - (Original Screenplay)

But really really see Laberinto del Fauno asap. Luckily it'll be released soon in the US in Limited Release. I currently have it as:

Best Picture #1
Best Director #1
Best Leading Actor #1 (Sergi Lopez)
Best Leading Actress #4 (Ivana Baquero)
Best S. Actress #2 (Maribel Verdu)
Best Original Screenplay #5
Best Art Direction #2
Best Cinematography #1
Best Costume Design #4
Best MakeUp #2
Best Visual Effects #5
Best Editing #1!!!!!!!!! (It is simply amazing!!!!!!!!!!!!!)
Best O. Score #2

Anonymous said...

Is everyone out there a miss!!!!

Did anyone see BOBBY!!! I think there are a few "ket performances that are being WAY overlooked here!!

Don't count out Demi Moore,Anthony Hopkins to name a couple excellent performances in that movie that one could be the dark horse here!!

Rachel said...

Everyone out there better stand up and take notice of a "key" film that you are all overlooking and that would be Bobby!!

Don't be surprised if that is not the dark horse here!!

OKonheim said...

i don't think flags of our fathers is in the same category as United 93 or World Trade Center. It won't split its votes

Anonymous said...

Apocalypto on Rotten Tomatoes is receiving some good reviews. I would not dismiss that movie when award time comes. Novel concept and Mel Gibson (controversy does attract attention) may allow it to score some Oscar noms.

Knicknock said...

With Robert Altman's recent passing, do you think that might sway Academy members to give him one of those sentimental posthumous nominations for PHC, a movie that, if not loved, was at least well-regarded.

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