Tuesday, April 03, 2007

Early Bird (Fool) Oscar Predictions Complete

I saved the best for last: the (predicted) ladies of next February's Oscar extravaganza.

LEAD ACTRESS
a vengeful woman. a forgetful woman. a frantic wife. a queen. a sarcastic sister.

SUPP ACTRESS
rising stars, a legend, a comeback and a regular.

Now the Early Bird Oscar Predictions are complete (full list here all the links should be working) Wish me luck.

49 comments:

Anonymous said...

I like your ladies.

I might be the only one, but I think it would be really great to see Blanchett AND Redgrave double nominated, then Blanchett take home the lead and Redgrave take home the supporting.

Is that just me?

daveylow said...

As long as people go see Away from Her, Christie is a shoo-in for an Oscar nomination. She is that good in the film. Unfortunately, after reading an interview with her in the Guardian, it doesn't sound like we'll be seeing too much more of her on screen in the future. She seems to shun celebrity.

J said...

oh god, If Jennifer Jason Leigh is finally nominated, I will die a very happy person!

hmm, no Pfeiffer on the list, If Hairspray is good, then I think she has a shot, but yeah, thats a big IF

Anonymous said...

I am excited about Harispray , but I think it is going to be fluff.

J said...

well, i'd rather see Pfeiffer nominated for Stardust, juicy villan role, and she looks fantastic in the stills and trailer. but sadly, the Academy rarely recognizes fantasy performances, though McKellen did get a nod for LOTR.

Ben said...

Wow... doesn't sound like you're having a terribly fun time with all this! :-) Overall, I like the choices. You're much more disciplined about this than I.

Why no love for Lions for Lambs? Seems like total bait to me. But then again, so did The Good Shepherd at one point. ::shrugs::

adam k. said...

Stardust just doesn't look awardsy at all, sad to say. Pfeiffer's best shot this year is probably to build good will for "spike!" oscar-bait role later.

Not too much faith in Moore's Savage Grace role, huh Nat? I had to predict myself. If only to say "come on, Julianne, prove me right."

I feel dumb leaving out Christie, though. I thought there was some talk about Away From Her being a supporting role, for her? Or have I confused her with Sigourney in Snow Cake? Whatever, what's done is done. Oh well.

I also heard Redgrave is probably supporting in evening... I solved the Atonement double nom conundrum by just calling Redgrave for Evening instead (it's much harder to pull off the "two noms for one person" trick when both noms are in the same category).

Why do you have Streep as a supporting actress in Lions, though? Sounds like a lead role to me.

Anonymous said...

Well, ya know, Nat's highest prediction for Lead Actresses is only 2. Maybe he was doing Moore a favor by excluding her, since most likely at least one or two (or who knows, maybe even al) won't get nominated.

Anonymous said...

Great you got Foster. She needs to build her third Oscar campaign now. This is the comeback role. Next year, the win.

Don't pretend Hilary Swank isn't the star of P.S. I Love You. Great role.

Norah Jones?

- cal roth

Aaron said...

Nathaniel, why do I dislike Romola Garai so much? I didn't like her in Vanity Fair, especially, and I sort of hated her in that Dirty Dancing 2 thing, but I think my dislike is sort of unfair. It seems so out of proportion. Do you have a sensible explanation for this? Is there a bad performance I'm forgetting?

Anonymous said...

Uma Thurman is not getting nom'd for In Bloom without Miss Wood getting a supporting one also. Uma said the quality of Evan's performance is what pushed her to go further.

I have my doubts about the size of Garai's role in Atonement as three actresses play the same role and I read the script. I hear she's great though.

Blanchett has to get the Oscar that many feel was stolen from her by Paltrow.

Hairspray will be fluff...Sweeney Todd may miss, but Bonham-Carter will be hard to forget as Mrs.Lovett!

I think there are many surprises to come.

Anonymous said...

Garai at one and Redgrave at five, but no mention at all for Saoirse Ronan who (judging by the book) gets to play the juiciest part of that character?
If Atonement is to get anything like the success you're predicting Saoirse needs to be at least good and that should put her ahead of Redgrave if not Garai also.

adam k. said...

Oh, Nat, I must ask... Cornish isn't of Morton for Golden Age? Um, what? Why? Isn't Morton the biggest female role after Elizabeth? The juicy adversary role? Who does Cornish play that makes her so special?

Morton has been nommed out of nowhere before. I think Djimon's nod this year proved that when they nom you out of nowhere, they will most likely also nom you when people can see it coming a mile away. I think Morton as Mary Queen of Scots is a very good bet myself.

Anonymous said...

Well I like all the choices but i would pick Nicole Kidman for the Golden Copmass in supporting actress....She have to be in one category and the role in the weitz film sees too juicy for the academy to pass....The definatly will be nominated....

Michael Parsons said...

No Toni Collette?? Not even pretending Snowcake will make the cut?

Good group of ladies though, Lets hope female roles are as strong as they were last year.

Michael Parsons said...

No Toni Collette?? Not even pretending Snowcake will make the cut?

Good group of ladies though, Lets hope female roles are as strong as they were last year.

Anonymous said...

SOFIA COPPOLA'S NOSE SAYS...

I like your predictions a lot, but... JANE FONDA in GEORGIA RULE as a possible contender? Please!!!

I think that "Charlie Wilson's War" won't receive nothing. To miss Amy Adams instead of Julia Roberts is just disgusting. I think it will be "The Good Shepherd" of 2007.

Anonymous said...

Garia is fine in the supporting category, although with less screen time early reports suggest she has given a scene stealing performance and she does have Angel on her resume which is gettin her alot of critical kudos as well so she will be in the critics minds.

Surprised to see no mention of the In Bloom ladies Uma and Evan both underrated and very talented.

NATHANIEL R said...

ben --it's exhausting is all

adam k --the savage grace doubt is about the lack of concrete distribution. and potential minisculeness of the film. can't wait to see moore sink her teeth in though.

aaron --i couldn't tell you. I am sort of blank on her but filmmakers obviously have faith since she keeps getting opportunities.

anonymous --i didn't know Thurman said that about Wood. I actually forgot Wood is all. It's hard to keep track of everyone even with spreadsheets.

anonymous --i know 2 of 5 doesn't sound like much but it will be fun to show you all how hard this is to do once you see how few people hit that in the 100+ best actress contest I held.

the tricky thing is that if you really look at the list you can make a case for infinite combos of those 25 women and then some (you can obviously even make a case that they'll pass on Blanchett --but I didn't want to shoot my prediction total in the foot since it's theoretically the easiest get this year)

So much depends on the films themselves (and nobody knows if they're good or crowd pleasing yet) and how the media responds and how willing and able they are to campaign, etc...

sofia's nose --fonda in georgia rule is not out of the question. Fonda has 7 noms and 2 wins and if it's a loveable performance (even if the movie is just OK...)

michael --the thing with evening is there are so many people i kinda had to throw up my hands. The June release and the cunningham decades spanning screenplay worries me too.

i didn't include sigourney for snowcake because i have more faith in the girl in the park role.

some of the people y'all mentioned I forgot are in the top 25 lists though. They just might be kinda low.

NATHANIEL R said...

oh and Adam, i OBVIOUSLY agree that Morton is a very good bet or she wouldn't be up so high in the list. i took her out at the last second for Redgrave. I'll probably live to regret it.

Kamikaze Camel said...

Didn't I hear that Morton's role is actually quite small in The Golden Age? I dunno.

Also, while I see Cate Blanchett going down the Patricia Clarkson route (for their respective Todd Haynes films) I do think it'd be a great way to play mindfuck with audiences who hadn't seen the movie by Oscar night. "She plays BOB DYLAN?!?"

I must say that I didn't really think much of Rendition's chances until your predix. Didn't strike me as Oscar fodder.

Room said...

I am very excited to see you predicting Jennifer Jason Leigh for Margot at the Wedding. She should really be on, like, her fourth nomination by now, after all those great unnominated performances she's given - Last Exit to Brooklyn, Miami Blues, Rush, Short Cuts, Mrs. Parker and the Vicious Circle, Georgia... I don't think there has ever been an actress who has amassed more critical acclaim (and awards from the NYFC, NSOFC and BSOFC) without getting so much as a single Oscar nomination.

It may be just wishful thinking at this early stage, but I do believe Leigh has a good shot with Margot at the Wedding once the film turns out good: she has a major co-star in Nicole Kidman, major studio backing with Paramount who'll likely give her a good promotional push, and she could ride the whole "comeback"/"overdue" trail to her first nod. Plus, she is married to Margot's director, Noah Baumbach, and he's one of Hollywood's hottest properties right now.

Go JJL!

sean said...

how about brenda blethyn in atonement?? i know nothing about the role but nearly everyone else got a mention an she is amazing!!so anyone fill me in on her chances??

Michael Parsons said...

I am still in awe about where you find the time.

Anonymous said...

Michelle Pfeiffer I think will be nominated for supporting actress for "Hairspray".

Anonymous said...

She has a pretty good chance.

Anonymous said...

More so than "Stardust".

steve said...

To adam re: Julianne Moore.

I have little doubt Juli will be excellent in this role, but I also have little doubt Oscar will pass. It will probably be too small, and almost certainly too weird. The story is pretty bizarre, and I don't expect Tom Kalin (based on recently viewing Swoon) to gloss over the more disturbing details.

Anonymous said...

The Supporting Actress category is lacking diversity,don't you think?

NATHANIEL R said...

yeah, it's a little BLONDE.

especially towards the top.

Carl said...

Wow. Natalie Portman in "Goya's Ghost" drops all the way off the list this time out? Is the distribution question that cloudy?

bigted said...

Atonement for everything...but no Keira?

MovieLOver85 said...

It will be apalling to see Keira Knightley nominated again so quickly after her shocking nomination for 2005. She should happy with that nomination alone and stay that way for the next ten to eight years unless she gives us something good.

I saw an early screening of Atonement and the movie belongs to James McAvoy and the actresses playing Briony especially the middle one who now I remember watching in I Capture the Castle, Nathaniel has her up for the supporting category. In all the movie was okay, not bad but certainly not as mind blowing as I expected it to be.

Beau said...

Seeing 'Away From Her' May 1st at LACMA in L.A. I absolutely cannot wait.
Would love to see her get that award... hell, her performance in the trailer alone deserves consideration.

Anonymous said...

The main problem with the top 5.....no first time nominee. There's at least one every year. You have 4 previous winners and Laura Linney.

Anonymous said...

Morton has been described as "ferocious" in her portrayal of Mary Queen of Scots but she leaves the film bout one third in - Cornish has a pretty significant role playing the lady in waiting to Good Queen Bess who runs away with Raleigh -

I think the Redgrave and Christie noms would be super - especially Christie -

daveylow said...

Beau wrote:
"Seeing 'Away From Her' May 1st at LACMA in L.A. I absolutely cannot wait.
Would love to see her get that award... hell, her performance in the trailer alone deserves consideration."

I don't Christie will win an Oscar for Away from Her but she should get nominated. And maybe with renewed attention, she'll be offered the great parts she deserves. She still is as radiant on screen as ever.

Also, re: Weaver in Snow Cake. I doubt if she'll be nominated for this film. I think the film will get panned. I liked Alan Rickman very much in this film, but I think it will flop if it is released in the US.

Kamikaze Camel said...

"It will be apalling to see Keira Knightley nominated again so quickly after her shocking nomination for 2005. "

Well, firstly, it wasn't shocking the first time and if she's great again then why not.

She gets such a bad rap sometimes.

adam k. said...

So am I the only one who thinks the academy feels so bad about 2002 that they're just waiting until Moore is great again to hand her that oscar? I myself have lost a lot of my love for her recently, but even I still want her to win that thing BAD.
The film will be on the radar because it's Juli, tiny release or no.

And the fact is: dark, tiny, bizarre, taboo films CAN get actresses nominations and even wins, even if they're not very good. Everybody said about Monster, "I'll believe it when I see it." And hi, look what happened. Same with Transamerica... everyone cried "stunt" or "too controversial for the academy," but Felicity got the nom and won the golden globe.

Those were major physical transformations, but I think Juli has the career goodwill and overdue factor going for her enough to not need to physically transform. The shocking, daring material could actually work to her advantage: People will cry "stunt" and "controversial" but in the end, it'll only get her more publicity. And the movie doesn't even have to be great.

Again, look at Monster. Theron played a lesbian psycho murderer hooker and people ate it up. I don't think you can get much more dark, controversial and hateable than that. An incestuous "real person" mother who dies is not so very different. If they want an excuse to reward more, they'll have it.

So I am predicting her, and that is the case I make.

adam k. said...

"an excuse to reward *MOORE*"

More Moore!

NATHANIEL R said...

well i learned my lesson long ago (Pfeiffer) that the AMPAS membership doesn't necessarily feel terrible about past slights.

I doubt they've lost any sleep over the no Oscars for Far From Heaven, even though they should ;)

Anonymous said...

Does anyone know where I can find LAST YEARS (2006) April Fools Predictions. Everytime I click on the link for them it takes me to the past Oscar Results.

Thanks in advance.

steve said...

Monster was mainstream enough, in a narrative and formal sense, for the Academy to digest. Plus, Jenkins made sure the audience was sympathetic to Wuornos while also condemning her crimes.

I don't expect Kalin will make Savage Grace an easy watch. When was the last time the Academy embraced a film or performance that was truly 'out there'?

The Academy tends to ignore such performances, even if they're great and given by respected actors:

- Laura Dern - Inland Empire
- Nicole Kidman - Birth
- Miranda Richardson - Spider
- Naomi Watts - Mulholland Drive

Just off the top of my head. That, and it's probably going to be a tiny release. I think they'll pass this year, but I wouldn't be surprised at some critical notices.

NATHANIEL R said...

anonymous last year's that you're looking for...

right here

don't laugh at me. it's hard ;)

16 year old blogger said...

Kate Winslet not only recieved a nom for playing the same person in Titanic but also in Iris...

Naughty Jean-Baptiste said...

Comedy? Please.

NATHANIEL R said...

huh?

Anonymous said...

No Kite Runner??

shag said...

Has anyone seen that indie Film THE NAMESAKE. I think that Indian actress who played mom to Kal Penn was mindblowing. If promoted properly she has a good shot of being nom inated for supporting actress category.