I've lost me mind trying to do these April Fools Too Early Oscar Predictions. It's like an OCD ritual. It makes me frakkin' crazy. All the second guessing, the multiple options, the domino effect of one prediction begetting another. Nevertheless if you are silly enough (like myself) to attempt to see the unforseeable it can be fun to tell yourself stories about what might happen in a cinematic year.
Here are my detailed thoughts on Best Picture and a not so detailed look at Best Director (an entire lineup of newbies ---what am I thinking?). I've made two minor tech predix adjustment (in sound and editing) as I rethink some of this but as soon as the actors and actresses go up it can all be considered final first predictions.
Bragging and Self Flagellation
I have one of the very best track records on the net for predictions this early. (27% success rate last year before we knew anything) Though that sounds like bragging I must also remind you that I fall down in the prognosticating ranks as we get closer to the final nomination predictions in January. I'm not sure how I let the other pundits overtake me. Maybe I'm too caught up in possible upsets? too emotionally attached to the movies by then? I'm not sure. But this far out I do enviably well. (27% probably doesn't sound enviable but just try it one year. Write them up and shove them in a drawer. Pull them back out in January. You'll be shocked.)
Actors and Actresses will be up tonight and then we can leave Oscar predix behind and get back to non-statue like topics for the spring and summer