Monday, April 06, 2009

2009 Oscar Predictions, The Actors

We've chatted about the women. Now it's time for the men.

I'll start with the big omission news. I know most every Oscar pundit is predicting Daniel Day-Lewis for Nine (the Musical) but I think they're all forgetting an important and peculiar truth: DDL does not get nominated for performances that center around his romantic relationships. Even when the Academy likes the film.

  • A Room With a View (1986) 8 noms/3 wins
  • My Beautiful Laundrette (1986) 1 nomination.
    He wasn't a known commodity in 86 but his double dip was incredibly chameleonic. And in two movies that were raved far and wide and that Oscar voters liked.
  • The Last of the Mohicans (1992) 1 nom/1 win.
    Certainly one of the most bizarre Oscar snubbings ever for an entire film. It was epic, beautiful, period, popular and moving. And it got one nomination... for sound?
  • The Unbearable Lightness of Being (1988) 2 nominations
  • The Age of Innocence (1993) 5 noms/ 1 win
  • The Crucible (1996) 2 nominations
Oscar loves Day-Lewis when he's malevolently masculine (Gangs and There Will Be Blood) or when he's starring in biopics (Left Foot, In the Name of...). But when he's romancing the ladies? "No thanks!" says the average voter. Even when the romance is a "wow" (Mohicans) or when the movie manages an acting nomination (Crucible, Innocence) they still pass. I'm not seeing it. Here are my BEST ACTOR predictions.

I generally do well at Actor predictions this early, managing 2 or 3 of the 5. Yet Best Actor was hard to suss out beyond Morgan Freeman this year. He's the only person in any category you can probably ink in already. Revered actor playing famous recognizable role + Eastwood + bio elements (though thankfully it focuses on one time period) = they will go nuts.

Supporting Actor was far more difficult. And for the obvious reasons of 'what the hell?' who is playing who? will the films be any good? In other words, we know little. So here's my stab in the dark when it comes to the men who will be recognized for boosting the appeal of movies much bigger than their roles. I'm guessing on a double nomination for Matt Damon. Why not?

I'd really love to hear your opinions for Supporting Actor because I wouldn't be surprised at all to be 100% wrong for 2009. This tends to be my worst acting category for 'year in advance' predix. I score either 1 or 2 out of 5. I've never hit 3/5 this early like I have in the other categories.

Still, if I'm right about the general field (if not the big contenders) we're going to see a lot of first time nominees this year in the supporting actor category.


Shawn said...

I don't have any real thoughts about your predictions, but it would be just *awesome* if Saoirse Ronan, Romola Garai, and James McAvoy were Oscar nominated this year.

What's Keira and Vanessa doing?

cal roth said...

Leonardo DiCaprio, Shutter Island
Christopher Plummer, The Last Station
Matt Damon, The Informant
Johnny Depp, Public Enemies*
Christian Bale, Public Enemies

Supporting actor
Paul Giamatti, The Last Station
Liev Schreiber, Taking Woodstock*
Michael Fassbender, Inglourious Basterds
Ewan McGregor, Amelia
Mark Ruffalo, Shutter Island

I don't know if Freeman is getting any recognition for this. This is supposed to be a slightly light Eastwood, like Space Cowboys or Midnight in the Garden... This is NOT a biopic, and Damon can be pushed as a lead and Freeman supporting. But I really don't think it's Eastwood Oscar material.

I know I going bold with Depp & Bale, but I predict Public Enemies to be a big hit and a possible manly-early-bird-BP-winner, like Gladiator, but a much better movie.

Tarantino is strong with supporting actors, even if his movies are violent. Woltz and Fassbender have the best supporting roles, but I think Hunger will help Michael.

Giamatti was beyong great in Duplicity, and they must give him another chance with The Last Station if the role is good. He is way more overdue for a win than McAvoy is for a nomination. And McAvoy is clearly Leading material - they don't nominate young leading men for supporting efforts. Anyway, I think there's no way Schreiber don't get the Oscar. He is great and a respected Oscar, and AMPAS love transgenders.

Herzog said...

I'd love to see Larry David (Whatever Works) at the awards circuit... Too much, I know.

Perhaps his real chances are at the Globes since the Academy does not consider comedy real acting.

And I really don't see Philip Seymour Hoffman being nominated for that role in that film.

Pivo said...

I miss the combo Liam Neeson/James Nesbitt in your predictions. I've heard that "Five minutes of heaven" was very well received at Sundance.

cal roth said...

A lot of typos... sorry

PSH has no chance for this movie, I think. He can't be nominated 3 times is a row. Forget it. He's no Kidman or Zellweger.

Michael said...

Interesting read as always Nat. I'd be very surprised if Hoffman managed to pull an Oscar nomination for 'Boat That Rocked' though.

Over here in the UK its box office performance is nothing special and critical reception hasn't been great either. Granted he is picked out as being 'the best of the bunch' but you could have guessed that without seeing the film most probably. I haven't seen it myself so I'll happily be proved wrong but from what I've read and heard it isn't Oscar-nom worthy.

To be overtly-patriotic (like the good old BAFTAs)for a'd be great to see recognition for James McAvoy (in particular), Carey Mulligan, Ben Whishaw and Hugh Dancy to name a few. Although I'd imagine that will be a few too many young Brits in the pot when the time comes.

Jim T said...

Nate, when you said there would be a huge omission, I knew it would be DDL. Your thought makes total sense but I hope you're wrong. I don't agree on Damon. I think they don't like him. And DiCaprio should be higher I think.

I would also be happy to see DuVall getting a nod. I'm currently reading The Road and haven't met his character yet. I'm curious. Boy, it's a difficult book.

Dave said...

I miss the combo Liam Neeson/James Nesbitt in your predictions. I've heard that "Five minutes of heaven" was very well received at Sundance.

Are there still rules against nominations for things have been on tv in other countries? Because that was on the BBC this past weekend.

I'd be surprised if Hoffman got a nomination, reviews trashed The Boat That Rocked. Plus, if he did get nominated, I'd have to see the film and I don't wanna. [People have now said this but I'm leaving it in because my petulent attitude is very important to how I am generally percieved.]

I have very bad feelings about Creation. Similar to my feelings towards Amelia, but I want that one to be rubbish.

john said...

I agree with Michael, here in the UK The Boat That Rocked has not hit critical or commerical waves (no pun intended)and to be honest no one has really been mentioning that Seymour Hoffman is actually in the movie = No Nomination, even if he is a default nominee.

Jorge Rodrigues said...

Humm... Interesting...

I never thought of Seymour Hoffmann as an actual nominee for his role in The Boat That Rocked...

Matt Damon (busy, hard-working year), Morgan Freeman (this one is almost a lock; if Jolie made it AND the movie was considered bad - I actually liked it, Freeman will make it even if the movie is not very good - which I don't believe) and Christopher Plummer (at last!) are also in my predictions. I am still trying to decide between Ben Whishaw, Viggo Mortensen (manly and grim film), Dancy (mentally-challenged), DiCaprio (Scorcese) and Depp (everyone loves Depp). I was going for DiCaprio and Dancy - I left out Viggo because the film is from 2008, got delayed, had its problems at post-production and I don't know how the movie will turn out comparing to the book (like Blindess the movie and the book, for example - the book is astonishing, amazing, brilliant; the movie is fine but not at all worth praising)- and I also left out Whishaw because between two first-time nominees, I figured Dancy had the most challenging role and if he pulls it off... Meh. I don't know. Whishaw has a busy year and body of work also counts. It's perhaps too soon to tell.

I'm not feeling it either for Daniel Day-Lewis. Maybe he'll surprise us. Maybe he'll blow our minds. For now, I don't believe in a nomination for his Guido Contini role.

And Paul Bettany... I'll have to see the movie first. Same goes for Connelly. In order to consider them worth awarding, I'll have to see the movie. Darwin and his wife sounds interesting but the movie maybe no good at all.

And although I am expecting greatness from Peter Jackson's The Lovely Bones, I am not at all convinced about Mark Walhberg's casting. If he gets it right and Mark pulls it off, I believe he'll be nominated. Heck, he'll fight hard with Freeman for the win :D

About the best supporting actor category...

The first thing I noticed is that the last two spots are for people you've forgotten.

And for instance, what about Alan Rickman for his Severus Snape in Harry Potter #6? If the series continue to surprise us - it has some noms from AMPAS (only #5 and #2 don't have noms - and I think Imelda Stauton deserved one back in 2006...; sure, the noms are in technical categories, yeah, but that was the same with Batman) - I can totally see him coming. SNAPE is evil in this 6th installment of Harry Potter. If the contenders all fade away (like last year) he may have a shot. It all depends on the momentum (of course Heath had a lot with his death and all but...)

Ah, well... Moving on. I agree with you in Matt Damon's double nomination but the rest I don't know. I think this year will finally give Mark Ruffalo his nomination. I don't know how big the killer role in The Lovely Bones will be for Tucci to shine. I'm still not sure about the movie An Education, besides Mulligan. But it will definitely help HER campaign if the movie hits big in other categories - but I think the Academy will tend to Peter Saarsgard and not Molina.

I was counting on a nomination for Smith-McPhee last year for The Road and I'll stick by it.

The rest I've yet to decide. Any of The Tempest's supporting players seem plausible at this point, so does James McAvoy (if it were now, I'd predict him as well), in Shutter Island we have many supporting actors and actresses that can be nominated but we don't know much about the roles (do you think Earle Haley's good performance (the only good performance in the movie) in Watchmen may push his Shutter Island role into Oscar radar?), Schrieber (like Stauton) looks doubtful... It's all so vague...

The word I've heard from Brothers is that it is an awful film. Let's see. If it turns out GOOD and they show excellent chemistry among them, Portman, Gylenhaal and Maguire may be hunting for gold...

I see you're ignoring QT's Inglorious Basterds and you're probably right: at this point it's best not to be too optimistic - but I also have high hopes for that movie.

Also... I see you haven't picked Alessandro Nivola for Coco Avant Chanel but I guess if Tautou can be a nominee she'll bring Nivola with her - his role is interesting...

So... My current predictions...

(I'm counting on Shutter Island being a major success or at least a Button-like success... And I think last year's DiCaprio snub (for Pitt) may favour him this time if the film is any good (like Pitt))

Freeman, The Human Factor
Plummer, The Last Station
Di Caprio, Shutter Island
Damon, The Informant
Dancy, Adam

McAvoy, Last Station
Smith-McPhee, The Road
Saarsgard, An Education
Ruffalo, Shutter Island
Tucci, The Lovely Bones

P.S. In response to a comment made in one of the previous posts (I think it was the Actress Psychic Group Think) I was talking about Tautou and Cotillard and the movie being bad and all that.

I saw La Vie En Rose (La Môme) and I liked it. Not A LOT but it was fine I think. Let's see. I wouldn't be surprised to see Madame Tautou nominated come January... And I'll be swallowing my tongue if the movie turns out to be great...

Jorge Rodrigues said...

I forget to talk about Public Enemies. Doesn't it seem too mainstream to be Oscary?

(The Dark Knight had that problem as well...)

If the movie is good, Depp has a nice shot. Bale, I don't know. For him to be nominated, he has to outshine Depp A LOT (which is difficult to do).

I don't think he's ever going to be nominated... They don't take him seriously...


Jorge. I'm not ignoring INGLOURIOUS for any reason other than I don't think the Academy is into Tarantino anymore. And he is certainly focusing on the parts of himself as an auteur that weren't their favorite parts to begin with (the genre-obsessions, the extreme violence)

re: HOFFMAN it was probably a bad call but I am in the .1 percent of the world population that doesn't think he's a great actor so perhaps it was me preparing myself for yet another nomination. I just feel like he doesn't even have to be great or EVEN CAMPAIGN and it kinda makes me crazy.

changetheworld360 said...

Good point on DDL. I hadn't really considered that. But isn't Nine a little different in the sense that he's the sole male character in a film full of women? Even for DDL, it won't be easy weaving his way through with all of those lovely ladies.
Yeah, Freeman is the only sure bet. The rest is full of uncertainty. However, I do think the zeitgeist may lean toward the influx of biopics this year to make up for the lack of biopics in '08.

Jorge Rodrigues said...

Nat, and what do you thinkg of Alan Rickman's possibilities as Snape?

Anonymous said...

CAL ROTH: Christian Bale is *not* lead. There's no chance for that... at all. He's as supporting as it gets.

Good on ya Nate for predicting McAvoy. He's been in my predictions from before I even made predictions. I've read that the novelist has basically called it *his* movie and he's phenomenal in it. Plus the Atonement snub may help.

I think you may be underestimating DiCaprio. The snub from Revolutionary Road + a really baity role.. I'm thinking he should even be in the top 3 at this point.

Wayne B. said...

I'm hoping "The Road" turns out to be great. Would be great to see Viggo Mortenson nominated again.

Anonymous said...

I'm glad you're not predicting Johnny. I'm quite doubtful of a nom. Also, I think Daniel Day Lewis will get in, I think he'll prove you wrong. Also, PSH will NOT get in. I have seen the Boat That Rocked (it's out here in Aus) and he is not that great. He's good, not great. Also, I think Matt will give a better performance in 'The Informant' but be nommed for 'Green Zone' much like Leo in 2006. But their good, other wise

adelutza said...

I would vote for Johnny Depp any given year, for any movie. His performance in and the quality of Arizona Dream makes me forget The Pirates series (and the fact that he married Vanessa Paradis ;)


Jorge... i don't believe Rickman is even a remote possibility. I think you can't really be nominated for a performance you've already given 5 times or so (unless the name of the character is different each time like how Philip Seymour Hoffman does. I kid, I kid.). So he has that working against him plus the general genre bias. Plus, these aren't really "acting" films... no matter how brilliant Staunton was when she got in her pink suits.

re: DiCaprio I am probably missing something since I haven't read the book but the synopsis of Shutter Island doesn't sound like it's remotely baity (although it sounds really interesting). Oscar isn't really obsessed with law enforcement and procedurals the way EMMY is. What does he have to work with in terms of Oscar bait and big acting scenes?

Jorge Rodrigues said...

Hmm, DiCaprio has Scorcese in his favour...

And as we all know, many Academy members don't go to the cinema at all... They vote based on hearsay and/or on performances from the 5-10 most buzzed and talked about movies 'come December time...

So... Hearing this...

«A period The Departed... DiCaprio + Scorcese...»

Must feel like they have a nominee...

rubi-kun said...

If we're going with crazy predictions, why not Jackie Earle-Haley in Watchmen for spot 24 on the supporting list?

Anonymous said...

Well, based on the book, both Michelle and Leo are locks for nominations.

cal roth said...

Anom, how do you know Bale is supporting? Mann usually goes for two male leads. Remember Heat, The Insider, Miami Vice and Collateral.

According to several articles, the source book is about FBI agent Melvin Purvis and his attemps to arrest Dillinger. Considering Bale is an actor as good as Depp, I expect it to be a great battle. If it becomes the huge hit I am waiting for, both of them can get lead nominations.

18 Year Old Blogger said...

Having already seen Public Enemies I can say that Johnny Depp should be in your top 5. Its a great performance and he might even be able to win an Oscar for it.

I didn't like Bale or Crudup. (Cotillard had an excellent supporting role).

Oh, and where is Sasha Baron Cohen for Bruno? I mean he was probably in the 6th spot for Borat...

Billy D said...

Is it wrong that almost none of these performances/films excite me? Is Nine too much of an attention-grabber?

PS: BEN WHISHAW!!!Hell yeah! Although if we have to endure idiotic mens-magazine profiles in which obtuse allusions to his sexuality are thrown at us, I'd almost hope he doesn't get nom'd.

Anonymous said...

Hey Nathaniel, what's next?

Score and Song?


18 good to hear. I look forward to seeing it. also: good point on Cohen and Borat. BUT... isn't Bruno going to be even more offensive to people? You know how people get with the Gay. 'fraid they'll catch it.

Anonymous said...


isn't he in brothers with portman and maguire? he's going to be one of the greats

Guy said...

Nat, having suffered through the film, I can assure you that there is no way in hell PSH is getting within sniffing distance of a nom for "The Boat That Rocked." More of an ensemble piece anyway (and a ghastly one at that).

Breathe easy ;)

Adam M. said...

Whom you're missing... (IMHO)


**Robert Downey, Jr. in "Sherlock Holmes" -- Everybody loves this guy now. He's the current Hollywood comeback kid. His chances will increase if the film does well at the B.O. (I'm sensing that it will) and if his work in "The Soloist" is at least respectable.

And two more unlikely candidates:

*Vincent Gallo in "Tetro" -- FF Coppola's return to form? I hope so.

*Colin Firth in "A Single Man" -- Because it's officially okay to be gay. It's a great role too.


The "Shutter Island" boys should be much higher up I think. I don't see Ruffalo gaining any sort of traction next to what are set to be two awesome performances by Haley and, particularly, Kingsley.

Dare I mention Jamie Foxx for "The Soloist" ?? Baity? Um, well, duh. Absolutely. Right up Oscar's alley? You betcha.

I also have high hopes for Niki Caro's "The Vintner's Luck." Gaspard Ulliel plays a gay angel. The role should draw awes. I don't know about his performance though. He'll have much better chances if he's considered for Supporting Actor I think.

Plus, if there were an Oscar for "yummiest actor in any role" he'd win by a long shot. :P

Anonymous said...

Nate. I honestly think Baron Cohen could be considered. Early reviews say it is absolutley hilarious and makes Borat look like a kids movie. It will be contraversial, but it would gain more viewers too! I really think DDL will giva an astonishing performance and will be nommed. Also, I prediction I made last year is that EMily Mortimer and Jackie Earl Haley will be nommed for Shutter Island. Emily has a great role, even though it is short. Jackie has a short role also, but should be good. Nearly every single role in Shutter Island is baity and it is definatley capapble of gaining 5 or less Acting moms. Hoffman is not getting anywhere close to a nom. It isn't really an acting piece, just a fun movie. I also think your underestimating Taking Woodstock. I'm seeing it as the Milk of his year. I hav a feeling The Human Factor is this year's Frost/Nixon. Hyped, then lost buzz, then gains it and garners a couple of nods. And Also, where is Evan Rachel Wood and Larry David for Whatever Works? I hear Clarkson is incredible, but I'm sure they have some buzz. Kevin Spacey also has a good role this year in a movie called Shrink. Don't know fi you've heard of it. I'm also extremly doubting a nom for Tobey Maguire. The film got terrible backlash. And no The Road. Duvall is meant to be excellent. And another Best SupportingA ctor contender is for an unkown film by the makers of Sexy Beast called 44 Inch Chest. John Hurt plays Old Man Peanut and is said to be mind-blowing, from an interview special with Empire Magazine. Also, PLEASE post your predictions quicker. Not be impatient or anything, but they're such a good read :). Thanks again and keep you're blog up and running ! I love it


can someone point me to why everyone seems convinced that people will hate BROTHERS. The original is so good and Sheridan is usually good with actors and all three actors are good and it's an acting piece! If its' really terrible how could they have messed it up that badly?

where was it shown? I don't recall a festival appearance.

adam m -- Gaspard [GASP] words escape me.

Kevin D. said...

since day-lewis makes so few movies in general, don't you think voters just don't want to see him getting nomated for EVERY performance? It's the only thing that I can justify the various Day-Lewis snubs. "The Crucible" snub still hurts, his and Winona's snubs I should say.

Paul Outlaw said...

Daniel Day-Lewis, Nine
Benicio Del Toro, The Wolf Man
Leonardo DiCaprio, Shutter Island
Robert Downey, Jr., Sherlock Holmes
Christopher Plummer, The Last Station

- four previous nominees
- two previous winners
- one senior (unnominated) vet
- two of last year's "snubs"
- one of last year's nominees
- one historical character
- two literary characters
- one from a stage adaptation (of a film)
- one musical performance
- two cinematic staples (but not sequels)
- one "hours in the make-up chair" role

Arkaan said...

1. I'll echo Cal Roth in that I think Giammati is more likely than McAvoy for The Last Station, based on what I've read of the story.

2. It's worth pointing out that since all the films Day-Lewis was ignored for underperformed.... except his 1986 duo, and supporting was so wierd that year (you can definitely argue vote splitting for him). Additionally, I'd mention that since GONY, his reputation has become as outsized as his characterizations. I'm not convinced that he's a lock, but at this early juncture, I see it more than I don't.

3. The Road = The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford. Loved by a certain group of people, despised by others, not enough raves for real across the board recognition, but an acting nod (for Mortensen or Smit-McPhee) and technical recognition (cinematography) seem realistic.

4. It would be very wierd to see Ben Whishaw with an oscar nomination before James McAvoy, but it's definitely plausible.

Jorge Rodrigues said...

Humm... I just noticed...

Daniel Day-Lewis AND Benicio del Toro will play two Portuguese Jesuit priests in 2010's SILENCE, directed by no other than Martin Scorcese... Humm... Day-Lewis I could see as a priest but Del Toro? :D

If not this year for Day-Lewis and Del Toro, they'll have a shot again next year.

The other member already cast is Gael García Bernal, he will play a Spanish priest, named Francisco Garpe...

Drew said...

Jorge Rodriguez... when I found out about Silence a few months ago, I officially forgot about Shutter Island. Those three actors + Scorsese + the subject matter = best movie ever?

Nathaniel R... I think you could be on to something with Ben Whishaw. It won't be long now. If it had just been Campion or just been Taymor, he'd have had to wait, but with BOTH on his side... I think he could sneak into one of the categories.

moviefreak said...

My top ten are...

Christopher Plummer- The Last Station ( Playing Leo Tolstoy )
Edward Norton- Leaves Of Grass ( gets to play dual roles; one as a prof. and another as his a small time pot dealer brother- screams Oscar )
Jeff Bridges- Crazy Heart ( gets a chance to really shine in this role )
Daniel Day-Lewis ( if he's only half way good, he's a lock + the singing factor )
Leonardo Di Caprio- Shutter Island/Ashecliff ( a lot of scenery to chew in this one/great role to play )
Matt Damon- The Informant ( method weight gain/true story )
Ben Foster- The Messenger ( ditto on the scenery chewing )
George Clooney- Men Who Stare At Goats ( gets to play kind of eccentric character )
Michael Douglas- Solitary Man ( said to be his comeback dramatic role )
Javiar Bardem- Biutiful ( Director + star = probably good )
Morgan Freeman- The Human Factor ( playing historical figure + Eastwood influence )

I'm not placing Mark Wahlberg in for The Lovely Bones. How on earth did he replace Ryan Gosling ? I'm leery of his casting. This will have to be his best work to even be considered. If he isn't very believable or good, he could single handedly take the movie down.
And I read somewhere that Freeman's character, though a popular one, is the secondary character based around Damon's rubgby coach character.

Jorge Rodrigues said...

Yeah Drew you're right.

I knew it's a project that is dear to him, I think he has been trying to develop it for a long time...

But I thought the cast was still being negociated... Now with Del Toro and Day-Lewis and Bernal (I don't know why people hate him so much sometimes...)... WOW!

Day-Lewis is British but now that I think of it, if his ID said Portuguese, I'd believe it.

Del Toro I don't buy; he does not look like a Portuguese but hell, what can we do? :D

I was now thinking... Will they speak Portuguese in any scene? Hah, that should be hilarious... Portuguese is I think one of the hardest languages to learn in the world... And one of the most difficult to speak...

We sure have a very peculiar accent... I loathe whoever comes to Portugal thinking that they will be OK here speaking Spanish... It's not at all the same...

YH said...

I haven't been quite feeling the casting for Daniel Day-Lewis in "Nine" either, or not enough to say that he's going to be swept up in the nods total or separate himself from all of the ladies. I'm still predicting him at this point. I know I have no basis for me thinking this, but after passing on both Antonio Banderas and Javier Bardem, I don't know, something doesn't quite feel right. But I'm sure in the end he'll step up to the plate like he always does. I would have nodded him in some of his "romances" films too BTW. Is "Lincoln" being fast-tracked now? B/c Liam Neeson's winning that Oscar whenever that ends up being made, especially now with the sentiment factor on his side. It's about the only thing I'd see beating Freeman's Mandela.

I'll go with these for lead and supporting actor:


Matt Damon, "The Informant"
Leonardo DiCaprio, "Shutter Island"
Morgan Freeman, "The Human Factor"
Daniel Day-Lewis, "Nine"
Viggo Mortensen, "The Road"


Matt Damon, "The Human Factor"
Richard Gere, "Amelia"
Alfred Molina, "An Education"
Kodi Smit-McPhee, "The Road"
Stanley Tucci, "The Lovely Bones"

Morgan said...

ANTHONY MACKIE in "The Hurt Locker" for supporting actor. He was nominated for the ISA and he is quite good in it. Oh, and in her limited screentime MARIAH CAREY is good in "Precious". Her reviews have also been stellar, just slightly muted because of Mo's terrific performance.

Morgan said...

And any combination of Cheadle/Hawke/Gere/Snipes for "Brooklyn's Finest" would be deserving. I think Wesley Snipes would be the only supporting push as his role is the true supporting one. Same for Ellen Barkin who got some best in show notices.

Adrian V. said...

Supporting actor...

My ten are

Billy Crudup- Public Enemies ( gets to play J. Edgar Hoover )
Richard Gere- Amelia ( plays secondary character )
Paul Giamatti- The Last Station ( plays Tolstoy's best friend )
Robert Downey Jr- The Soloist ( gets to really chew scenery )
Richard Kind- A Serious Man ( Ya never know-dark horse )
Richard Dreyfuss- Leaves Of Grass ( gets to play top pot dealer in small town- will get to play a bad ass )
Liev Schreiber- Taking Woodstock ( plays a cross dresser )
Ben Kingsley- Shutter Island ( great role )
Bill Nighy-1939 ( seems more bairty than Boat )

Shutter Island is a great book. It's has twist and turns and a surprising end. Lots of characters get a chance to act their butts off in these characters, especially Leo, Michelle Williams, Kingsley and Jackie Earle Haley. His role is as big as Viola Davis in Doubt and she got a Oscar nomination. Shutter is all about the criminally insane. If you haven't read it yet, do so.

theoscartracker said...

Bee-tee-dubs... there is NO WAY Matt Damon is getting dual nominations this year. NO. WAY.

Frankly, I'll be surprised if he'll get anywhere with his work in 'The Informant.' There's just no way he's going to live up to the hype. And isn't it supposed to be a comedic film? When is the last time Stevie Soderbergh scored big with a comedy? Oh, that's right. Never.

As for that 'The Human Factor'... He's going to be so overshadowed by Morgan Freeman that he'll die of Vitamin D deficiency from the lack of sunlight. Think James McAvoy in 'The Last King of Scotland,' only way more so.

If you can't tell... Matt Damon: I don't get it. I'm unenthused by his performances, and he's always, always sidelined by better actors. I do think he's insanely lucky to have landed so many amazing roles. But that's about it.

Adam M. said...

^^ That comment is from me, bee-tee-dubs. I clicked the wrong radio button under while choosing my identity. :[

Adam M. said...

^^^And when I say "under while," I just mean "while." Oops. I'm done now...

Alex in Movieland said...

how is Mark Wahlberg leading in The Lovely Bones?

0 acting nominations for Nine? :) really now, doesn't that sound a bit crazy?

Anonymous said...

NAT: Huge hug for including ben Whishaw


Whishaw is a fantastic acotr who is just bound for Oscar glory but will Bright Star be the roll which earns him his first oscar nom!?!?!? I hope so

Good to see the Bill Bighy love, his supporting role in 1939 is vital so lest see.

Fassbender doesnt stand a chance for Basterd's the only one who has a strong supporting role and any chance fo a nomination is Christopher Waltz and Hunger cannot qualify as it was rleleased last year.

Hwo about another Brit Tom Hardy for Bronson. He got good reviews at Sundance.

Marshall said...

I think the only issue is that Day-Lewis is fundamentally miscast. Oh, to think what Bardem could have done.

Rach said...

I really wish they'd have just given the reigns back to Banderas.

Adrian V. said...

Day-Lewis miscast ? They wouldn't have cast him in the role if they weren't 100 % confidant in his ability. And DDL wouldn't have taken the part on if he knew he couldn't do it justice. Plus, he is one of the hardest working, better prepared actors in film today. He even sent Marshall and Weinstien video of himself singing to give them a heads up. Never doubt an actor that prepares so intensley as he does.


theoscartracker the argument falls apart for me when you get to Last King of Scotland because i thought McAvoy had a trickier part than Whitaker and was very nearly his equal in the acting department. I didn't see any vitamin deficiencies there.

so it sounds like no one buys my DDL theory/argument despite all the evidence presented. Hmmm.

Guy said...

I sort of buy your theory, Nat. The only reason I'm predicting a nomination (despite a nagging suspicion that the performance, and indeed the whole film, could go very wayward) is that Day-Lewis has this aura of eccentric godliness now that he didn't quite have in the early 90's.

Actors do appear to be in bemused awe of him, and the fact that he works so rarely gives his high-profile performances kind of an 'event' status these days.

Alex in Movieland said...

Nat, no one's buying! :D
especially judging by how shitty the category looks right now:

- Nelson Mandela?!(though he too is on my prediction list)
- Damon? nah. Soderbergh is like so 9 years ago... no faith in the informant.
- Plummer? with that Santa beard, shaky story and no release date?!
- Hoffman? way too light and too summer. love actually material.
- does Bright Star even have a release date?! and you know she's not pulling another Piano.

so DDL all the way. anyone know what happened to Jamie Foxx and The Soloist? [if they go lead].

Javier Bardem is like so in for Biutiful. it's a good guy bad guy, both drama & action, Inarritu is directing!.

Towelie said...

Nat, don't you think "This Side of the Truth" has, at least, a small chance on the original screenplay category?

Michael W. said...

Interesting observation about DDL. I don't buy it though (not yet ;-) ). For several reasons. He's the greatest actor in the world(!), I'm really looking forward to Nine, and he sings in this one. He hasn't done that before so it's a new situation :-D

Yeah supporting actor is really tough this year. For now I would have Mark Ruffalo at top of my list. It's the most perfect casting I have seen in a long time and if Shutter Island is a critical succes I really don't see how he can miss.

I also have faith in The Lovely Bones and of course Stanley Tucci and the third one on my list is Damon or Freeman. We still don't know who's lead or if they are considered co-leads. From what I can tell it's not a film ABOUT Mandela. At fourth I have either Sarsgard or Molina in An Education and at fifth I have a sneaky feeling that John Malkovich could go all the way to a nom for his apparently wonderful performance in The Great Buck Howard. Only problem is that the film is such an early release. They could forget about him.

JoFo said...

Sorry to really drum this in, but yeah, I would be surprised if Hoffman even gets a Globe comedy nod. Even in his near defaut nominee status, it just aint happening.

Im surprised you havent mentioned Downey Jnr for Sherlock Holmes at all though. People might forget after all the BBC dramas, but Holmes can be a very baity role. Drug Addict, indiosyncratic, quirky and likeable.

YH said...

Day-Lewis miscast ? They wouldn't have cast him in the role if they weren't 100 % confidant in his ability. And DDL wouldn't have taken the part on if he knew he couldn't do it justice. Plus, he is one of the hardest working, better prepared actors in film today. He even sent Marshall and Weinstien video of himself singing to give them a heads up. Never doubt an actor that prepares so intensley as he does.

I'll doubt whatever I choose to doubt. No one seen's anything yet. He could be great in it or totally fail. It remains to be seen. And I'm still predicting him for lead actor BTW.

cal roth said...

I back Nine's zero acting nominations. It has flop written all over it. Just think over: sort of remake from Fellini, very very bad director (Geisha!), girly movie (musical/diva freak), everyone in cast has already won the Oscar (no overdues, sorry). The best think this movie can do is to pull off a BP nomination, but I'm sure as hell Rob Marshall will be snubbed - but I even doubt the BP nod. It's like a new Geisha or King Kong - be happy with techs.

pomme said...

mickael fassbender is awesome in Hunger!
Johnny depp in Public enemies!

Adam M. said...

Nat-- Whether or not McAvoy's performance was praiseworthy is beside the point. The Oscargasm over Whitaker was so huge that there wasn't any room left for his co-star. The same will be true for Damon next to Freeman as Mandela.

Paul Outlaw said...

Nat, I like your DDL theory, but I don't think it will apply this year. He's singing for the first time and if he's good, he's in. Nine will get two acting nods, for DDL and Cruz (supporting), per the tiebreaker question. ;-)

Luiserghio said...

I think if "The Dallas Buyer's Club" opens this year, Ryan Gosling has a shoot. For me this role screams Oscar nom, or maybe is just my lover for him.-

Anonymous said...

Nathaniel, thanks for have remembered the incredible THE LAST OF MOHICANS snub!!!!!
One of the most beloved and successful movie of 1992.
It was overlooked 'cause the Academy chose to nominate UNFORGIVEN, HOWARD'S END, THE CRYING GAME...and then SCENT OF A WOMAN and A FEW GOOD MEN...are we sure that these two are better movies than Michael Mann's masterpieces?
I know that it doesn't count whether a movie is a masterpiece or not when we are talking about Academy Awards, but anyway...
Michael Mann is one of the most riveting american director...we could say Academy apprecciates his movies (THE INSIDER was a major contender in 2000...and ALI & COLLATERAL received several nominations each, including the notorious Jamie Foxx fraud category...), but it can live without him definitely...
I wish Michael Mann could be selected Best Director one day (Public Enemies? Who knows?...)...surely he deserved this more than Barry Levinson or Robert Benton (just to name a fews...).
Let's just imagine the nominations THE LAST OF MOHICANS could have received...
BEST ACTRESS (Madeleine Stowe has never been better...maybe just her perf in SHORT CUTS is better...people used to say that 1992 was a bad year for Best Actress race...but if you think we can count a lot of unfair snubs even in this category...)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR (Wes Studi rocks...ok, ok...his missing is not as incredible as the two leading...but anyway...)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS (Jodhi May's perf as Stowe's younger sister is really understimated...)
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY (DANTE SPINOTTI at his best, maybe the most unbelievable snub...)
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE (no, maybe that's the most....)

Academy nominated it just in the Best Sound category and actually the movie won it, but nobody will convince me it didn't deserve more than this...


Anonymous said...

"It has flop written all over it. Just think over: sort of remake from Fellini, very very bad director (Geisha!), girly movie (musical/diva freak), everyone in cast has already won the Oscar (no overdues, sorry)."

Cal, the only thing I buy you is everyone has already won an Oscar.

*First: YES, Ron Marshall directed Memoirs of a Geisha, but he also directed Chicago (Which was a BP Winner and the most nominated film in that year) and the guy only directed TWO films. He's not like Woody allen who has films every year.
*Second: "girly movie" is a good argument, except "Chicago" was also a girly movie.
*Third: Maybe I'm crazy predicting three nominees for Supporting Actress (Cotillard, Kidman and Dench). But I think Daniel Day-Lewis and one of the ladies is very possible. My prediction is Judi Dench. The woman has 74 years and she's loved by AMPAS (Six nominations after her 60 years old, no one has that luck) and maybe they want to reward her with another Oscar.
*Fourth: With "The Reader" effect, Harvey Weinstein is back to play.

Anonymous said...

1. Christopher Plummer, The Lst Station -Only because he's SO overdue, but I don't trust to the director-
2. Viggo Mortensen, The Road -He's always good-
3. Daniel Day-Lewis, Nine
4. Ben Wisham, Bright Star -He's a great year and his role is interesting-
5. Leonardo DiCaprio, Shutter Island -His role is great but too dark...-
Alt: TIE:
Morgan Freeman, The Human Factor -Eastwood is a great director but he's not always nominated. Remember Kevin Costner in "A perfect World"-
Hugh Dancy, Adam -I know AMPAS loves guys with disabilities, but also loves them in dramatic films. This film received decents but not great reviews and is more a romantic comedy-

1. Carey Mulligan, An Education -The only acclaimed actress right now and possible IT girl-
2. Helen Mirren, The Tempest -She's respected with 4 projects-
3. Sophie Okonedo, Skin -This year's "Away from Her/Crash"?
4. Abbie Cornish, Bright Star -If Wisham's in, so she's in-
5. Renee Zellweger, MY Own Love Song -A minicomeback and two films (One acclaimed in Berlin and another directed by Dahan)
Alt: Hilary Swank -If the bad critics continue, Amelia is OUT and Betty Anne Waters is possible too small.

1. Jonathan Groff, Taking Woodstock -I heard better things for his performances, even better that Schreiber, Hirsch and Dano.
2. James McAvoy, The Last Station -He deserves right now an Oscar Nomination
3. Koby Smit-McPhee, The Road -With "Romulus, my father", he follows his good career.
4. Ewan McGregor, Men Who Stare at Goats: He's four films and I miss him too. He's co-lead with Clooney.
5. One of the Shutter Island's boys:
-Sydow role is too small but he's a legend
-Ruffalo's overdue for a nomination
-Kingsley and Haley have a meaty role
Alt: Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones -How is his character in this adaptation?

Supporting Actress:
1. Judi Dench, Nine _She's the AMPAS' british grandmother-
2. Patricia Clarkson, Whatever Works -The buzz is growing...-
3. Michelle Williams, Shutter Island -She has the most important female role and Hollywood is in her side...
4. Marion Cotillard, Nine/Public Emenies -She receives raves for PE (Even when the film has mixed response) and Nine is a high profile film-
5. Nicole Kidman, Nine -Another minicomeback-
Alt: Penelope Cruz, Nine -Maybe she would go for lead, maybe is too comic and she also won last year.

Anonymous said...

Nat there were test screenings for Brothers last year.

"I agree that the original film, like all of Bier's films, is a story of patriarchal replacement and the toll that it takes on the family involved. This does not mean that the remake (6 years later) must be about the same thing. Jim Sheridan has made politically charged films in the past, In the Name of the Father for one, and I had hoped he would take this film to a greater level than a straight forward remake without so much as a nod to the political issues surrounding it.

Honestly, most of all, I would have liked to see something new and different. Instead, I saw the same movie set in the mid-west with big name actors, bland camera work, and an overall watered down feeling. Compare it to The Departed and Infernal Affairs where everything was taken up a notch, the story was expanded upon, characters were better realized, the location was reinvented, social and cultural elements were exchanged/maneuvered to take the same basic storyline and create an entirely new film from it. "

Anonymous said...

He also said Tobey was the best, but didn't think that anyone would be getting nominations.

Anonymous said...

I'm thinking Jérémie Renier may have a chance this year; he's been a rising star in French/Belgian cinema for several years now (and even had a cameo in the Oscar nominated Atonement). This year, he has 3 films due for release in the US: "Lorna's Silence," the latest from the Dardenne Bros (who previously directed Renier in "La Promesse" and "L'Enfant"); "Summer Hours," directed by Olivier Assayas and co-starring A-listers Juliette Binoche and Charles Berling; and "The Vintner's Luck," Niki Caro's newest film, co-starring Gaspard Ulliel, Vera Farmiga and Keisha Castle-Hughes. The first two are in French (and would likely be considered Supporting), the last in English (and would likely consider him Lead).

moviefreak said...

Johnny Depp ? Really ? Has a better chance with his next flick, The Rum Diary. From people I have heard that have seen a test screening said it was decent and enjoyable film, but nothing special. Not Oscar-ish. More like summery popcorn fare instead.

Cal Roth... yes, Memoirs was pretty weak. But remember Marshall got an Oscar nomination for Chicago and the pic won too.

I personally think Nine will be the nomination leader with...

Supporting Actress
Adapted Screenplay
Art Direction
Costume Design
Sound Editing
Original Score

That's 12. Oscar just loves this kind of thing. A musical with a star studded cast, singing and dancing. It'd have to be a huge bomb box office wise and critically to not be in good favor and that cast is too well known and too talented for that. They rehearsed and practiced for a couple months. If I was in Vegas and had to bet, it would be for better chances than not.

Arkaan said...

moviefreak, I give you Dreamgirls.

Paul Outlaw said...

Except that Dreamgirls didn't have an all-star, (almost) all-Oscar cast. And I saw the Dreamgirls BP snub coming a mile off. Actually, I was surprised that it got as much Oscar love as it did, as much as I enjoyed it. Nine is going to have to suck majorly not to clean up at awards season.

Cameroon said...

Firstly, I really enjoy your site, Nathaniel. I think it's a great as a point of reference. But I do have some fundamental disagreements with your acting predictions. Here are mine:

Javier Bardem, Biutiful
Daniel Day-Lewis, Nine
Leonardo DiCaprio, Shutter Island
Morgan Freeman, The Human Factor
Christopher Plummer, The Last Station

Matt Damon, The Human Factor
Richard Kind, A Serious Man
James McAvoy, The Last Station
Mark Ruffalo, Shutter Island
Stanely Tucci, The Lovely Bones

Paul Outlaw said...

I just have to throw this into the mix. ;-)

Bill_the_Bear said...

How about a Best Actor nom for someone whose film has already opened and who was good enough in it to deserve a nomination: Joaquin Phoenix in "Two Lovers?"

wwefreakjon said...

I like your predictions except i think you may have missed one movie. The soloist. I seem to remember you having had FoxX and Downey Jr on the acting predictions last year. I think that this may be Downey Jr's time. Your thoughts?