Friday, April 03, 2009

Group Think: Best Actress 2009 Prediction

Your votes have been tallied. 262 people entered the Actress Psychic contest this year. I play too, (I just am ineligible for the win) so that makes 263 Psychics. How well can the contestants predict the future? Does the wisdom of crowds really apply to something as unpredictable as awards season, and ten months early at that before virtually any of the movies have been seen?

In late January will the Oscar nominees for Best Actress really be... ?


  • Michelle Pfeiffer, Chéri (157 votes... more than half of the ballots)
  • Hilary Swank, Amelia (142 votes... more than half of the ballots)
  • Carey Mulligan, An Education (127 ballots)
  • Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia (120 ballots)
  • Penélope Cruz, Los Abrazos Rotos / (Broken Embraces) (on 75 ballots)
Nobody else came close to these five, making your collective prediction quite decisive indeed. That's a Best Actress shortlist composed of three Oscar winners (Cruz, Streep and Swank) and a possible comeback queen (Pfeiffer). The newbie would be twenty-three year old Brit actress (Mulligan) who has already won brilliant reviews for her portrayal of a teenager in 1960s London, greatly changed (and sexed up) by the arrival of an older man (Peter Sarsgaard). Sony Pictures Classics is saving the release of An Education until October so unless you live across the ocean or you make it to festivals you'll have to wait and see if she delivers as well as early audiences claim she does.

One of the most interesting question marks to pull from the whirlwind of possible futures these ballots offer, involves sexy sexegenarion Dame Helen Mirren. You're confident that she'll be nominated (she actually won more votes than Penélope) but you totally disagree on which performance will do the trick. This year we'll see her as Leo Tolstoy's wife in The Last Station, the owner of a brothel in Love Ranch and as Prospera in Julie Taymor's gender-reversed adaptation of Shakespeare's The Tempest. The last divisive auteur to take a whack at The Tempest, was Peter Greenaway (I'm definitely on the "pro" side of that divide) with the extremely naked Prospero's Books. If Julie Taymor is interested in an equally fleshy take we're certain Helen Mirren will comply. "Fish out your teats!"

Want more?
See the Individual Ballots ~ If you entered but don't see yours here, please contact me at filmexperience (at) gmail (dot) com. Maybe it went in my junkmail? I know a few did that I fished out but if you're not there and you should be, contact me. Maybe you could reforward me the original. Etcetera...


"What about your predictions, Nathaniel?"
Those are coming this weekend (Hold tight. I'm only one man) but in terms of Best Actress I'll just say for now that only two of these five you picked will be on my list. Streep won't be one of them. I'm guessing that her Julia Childs is campaigned supporting since it would take both a reworking of the source material to make her a lead and a non starter campaign for that Untitled Nancy Meyers feature (in which she is definitely the lead) to not make her compete against herself. But then again: look what happened to Kate Winslet this awards season past and look what happened to Streep for Devil Wears Prada. Maybe I'm wrong.
*

97 comments:

Fernando Moss said...

Am I not seeing her or is Julie Delpy missing from the count?

And I must add: WOW! Didn't expect to see Cruz so high...

NATHANIEL R said...

Re: CRUZ. I know!

Re: Delpy. You're right. I must recheck... OOPS

NATHANIEL R said...

fixed.

adelutza said...

I saw "An Education" at Sundance and if Carey Mulligan doesn't get nominated, it means we really have been blessed with awesome actresses performances this year.

Anonymous said...

I agree with you Nat, I'm pretty positive Amy Adams is lead in Julie and Julia not Streep. Why did so many people pick Natalie Portman for Brothers, that movie got awful reviews from test screenings.


Melissa

Drew said...

Hahaha, I just looked at my ballot again... I'm screwed.

But at least I achieved my aim of picking a whole ballot of less groupthinky candidates... mine are all in the late teens to early twenties on the rankings.

Anonymous said...

Only two of those five you picked would be Mulligan and Pfeiffer, Nat?! hehe

Today I met this guy who saw Cheri in Berlin last February, He said he thinks Pfeiffer's performance in Cheri is one of her best performances ever.

Anonymous said...

I think Mulligan is in, she's the ONLY actress who has gotten raves (Monique Imes is supporting) in the Best actress category.

Cruz, Blunt, Sidibe and Michelle have all gotten some nice notices, but not raves. So I'm counting all four of them out.

If Streep is supporting , I'll count her out too. That Coco Chanel Biopic looks dreadful so no to that.

This is my guess

Mulligan
Emily Watson
Helen Mirren
Swank (The Academy likes her what can we do)
Berry or Swinton

Arkaan said...

I'm genuinely impressed at the participation. I skipped trying because my tally was so bad last year and I know so little about this year's buzz (still catching up on 2008. and 2007. and 2006). And when I did try, I gave up.

--Berry seems like a Razzie contender.

--I love Carey Mulligan. BLEAK HOUSE rocks.

--Admit it, people just predicting Hilary Swank so much to get Nathaniel to write her name. And right below Michelle Pfieffer's!

--I think Cornish will be a contender. Campion's aces with actresses (Herhsey, Kidman, Winslet, Hunter, Paquin, Fox) whether or not they get nominated.

--If Taymor's THE TEMPEST does not give us Mirren's naughty/cheeky side, I will be very disappointed.

Bryan said...

If the collective five are the final five, Michelle's your winner.

Jae Ly said...

Can't wait to be raking in the points for Jessica Alba. Don't say I didn't tip you guys earlier cuz I did.

Rick said...

From both the trailers and reviews I've read so far, Michelle does not stand a chance.

Streep will be in Supporting if a good performance... and Possible Best Actress for the Untitled project. Please NOOOOO Swank!!!!!

Fernando Moss said...

Jae Ly: I just realized that you are the only person aside me that predicted Gellar... I hope we get a lot of points for that one. ;)

adam k. said...

I am not at all surprised by Cruz's placement in the top five. In fact, I thought she'd be higher. She's on such a hot streak right now that everyone seems to expect her to be nominated a million more times in the next few years. It just screams Nicole Kidman to me. I don't think she gets a nom next year. I consciously avoided picking her so as to avoid too many consensus picks.

I also very consciously avoided picking Swank. I just don't think they'll want to give her more recognition. Everyone realizes she's been over-rewarded. If the movie's not all that, I don't think she gets in. But dammit, I'm probably wrong.

What I'm most surprised by is actually Pfeiffer snagging #1 even after that "meh" trailer for Cheri. But I suppose it was one of only a very few (seemingly) obvious choices, mixed buzz be damned... though I do think the perf is better and more substantial than this first trailer would lead us to believe.

I'm just hoping my way under-the-radar pick Sophie Okonedo pays off. She seems to me like the type they'll nominate again...

Anonymous said...

That project may sound baity, but Jessica Alba is a horrible actress.

Jae Ly said...

Fernando Moss: Yah for Gellar! :D

Anonymous said...

Wow... I didn't predict any of those in the collective prediction.

Swank: just no.
Streep: I'm counting on her going lead.
Mulligan: I thought she'd get passed over Hawkins' style.
Pfeiffer: the reviews aren't orgasmic.
Cruz: see above.

I predicted:
Adams.
Watson.
Cornish.
Ronan.
Weisz.

-DJ

Anonymous said...

*supporting for Streep.

Anonymous said...

Nicole Kidman for Rabbit Hole

adam k. said...

I thought of predicting Cornish, but even if she's great, it'll probably be too bizarre and outré for them. Campion films seem to be that way more often than not.

Wouldn't it be excellent if Meryl ended up winning for the Nancy Meyers film? Assuming it's good, of course. And it'd pretty much have to be in order to win best actress as a rom com.

I'm betting it just gets the standard globe nom while Julia Child laps up all the attention.

G. Morvis said...

I predicted

Ronan
Mulligan
Streep [Julie and Julia]
Cruz
Mirren [for The Tempest]

I may have overlooked Pfeiffer and Swank... but I wasn't feeling the Cheri trailer other than Kathy Bates, and I really think this is the year the academy says NO to Hilary...

Hopefully Ronan delivers. The Lovely Bones + Peter Jackson + the rest of the cast + her performance in Atonement = Oscar gold for me... but the Academy may not agree.

Jae Ly said...

"The result, according to Agrelo, is a performance that could change the course of Alba’s career. “I remember when Pulp Fiction opened, and people kind of laughed at the idea of John Travolta in that role. He blew everybody away,” she says. “When things like that happen, it’s wonderful. And it’s so rare that you get to be the one who pulls the surprise out of the hat.” "

Wayne B. said...

So chances are at least one of these top five isn't going to be nominated. I wonder which one is more likely?

Brooke Cloudbuster said...

All I can think about when I saw Hilary Swank in Amelia is that it's quite clear that she's Hilary Swank. I can't disconnect her from that role.

Morgan said...

I'm the only one who predicted Jennifer Aniston for "Traveling" (or "Brand New Day"). I doubt that'll turn out well for me.

Cruz, Mulligan, Pfeiffer & Ronan were my other picks.

Anonymous said...

UGH! I swear I JUST looked at Mother and Child for Bening and it was 2009, now I'm reading its 2010, what was going on with me?!

Alex in Movieland said...

I'm not on the list. :(

Hope that will be fixed

vince said...

well, this is a 180 from last year's group think ...

vince said...

well, I was doubting myself and now I see the whole list and what-not and I feel a lot better!

Dave said...

I have to say I only picked Michelle because I felt like I needed at least one "big name" and I don't think Cruz will be nommed and I just didn't want to pick Swank. I wanted to pick Maya Rudolph...

I seem to be nicely split between groupthink and more unusual picks. This I like. (And kudos to whoever picked Jessica Biel. Even if you're completely delusional.)

Michael said...

Interesting read. But I think it's safe to assume that it won't be these five. That would be too amazing :-) I didn't enter the competition but my current guesses are:

Abbie Cornish - Bright Star
Penélope Cruz - Broken Embraces
Carey Mulligan - An Education
Michelle Pfeiffer - Chéri
Saoirse Ronan - The Lovely Bones

Maybe there's not enough experience in that group but it looks great.

And I still think Meryl Streep will be supporting in J&J.

Yavor said...

from Yavor:

I just know Meryl will get nominated for Julie and Julia ;) I like Amy Adams, I do! But the Academy will by no means choose Amy over Streep, regardless of screen time; examples: Nicole Kidman, Meryl Streep in The Devil Wears Prada, One True Thing, Anthony Hopkins in The Silence of the Lambs and I'm sure there are other relevant ones. Plus, last year Kate Winslett went cheesy on the critics, made two acclaimed movies, this year has to be Meryl's year with two serious projects of her own :P

JoFo said...

BAH! I already feel regretful about my picks!

I'd gone with:
Cornish
Pfieffer
Swank (Am i the only one who's content with both her wins?)
Watson
Mulligan

But im wondering if Watsons film will be too small, if Cornish's film will be too weird, Mulligan will be too unknown, Pfieffer will have too much to live up to, and if the Swank hate is strong with the academy now too!

Should I have gone Cruz? Garai? Mirren? Delpy? Gainsbourg? WEIZ?! RUDOLPH?!?!

But I must not fret, even if all my predictions are way off, my consolation prize will be getting to see all the wonderful actress performances that do get nominated.

Jim T said...

Well done Nate! But can I ask for one thing? Don't announce dates for aything unless you are sure. When I find out there will be a delay, I get sad! :p

PS: I really wished for an Emma Thomson comeback but the reviews of the film aren't so great. :p

NATHANIEL R said...

JoFo, well said. This isn't an entirely new feeling but when I was compiling the chart I kept thinking "AND this one... wow this might be agreat year!"

Notluke said...

I knew that this year I'd be agreeing more with the consensus than ever but didn't expect to have all the top three collective choices on my ballot. Wow.

Cruz's placement amazes me. If the Academy throws a bone to a foreign language role, wouldn't they be more likely (at this point) to choose well-liked and as-yet-unnominated and bopic-y Tautou or Delpy than a girl who has just won?

On the flip side, I am surprised Deschanel got only one vote (kudos to Marco V). True, Mulligan seems to have claimed the Sundance Sensation Spot so far, but Zooey should not be counted out, if only because she is a more familar name than her.

(Speaking of Mulligan, in addition to the aforementioned Bleak House, I recommend Doctor Who episode Blink to everyone who wants to see where does the love for the actress come from. In fact, I generally recommend every episode of the show written by the ingenuous Steven Moffat, but that's neither here nor there.)

Finally to partly answer Nat's question ("I wonder why so few people went for them?"), I'd love to see Connelly get her groove back, but I've read, can't remember where, that Creation is supposed to have supernatural elements? That, if true, will be a big turn-off for the Academy. (And for once it'll be hard to blame them. I mean, the paranormal in a Charles Darwin biopic? It's ultimately insulting to the man's legacy. I know his wife was very religious and that their differing beliefs are supposed to be the main conflict in the film, so an intelligent script could surely make it fit thematically... But for now I am expecting the worst, ie. a travesty like what Death Defying Acts did for Houdini.)

Plus I'd already picked Weisz, and two ridiculously hot and talented Oscar-winning thirtysomething brunettes looked too good to be true. :P

Ziyad said...

hey! I voted for deschanel too!

Notluke said...

Oops, you're right. She is listed as an "orphan" so I never looked further past the first contestant who voted for her. Kudos to Ziyad, too! :)

NATHANIEL R said...

i may have made a couple errors on the numbers. So many charts and spreadsheets!

so yes, i guess Deschanel is not an orphan.

NATHANIEL R said...

once my excel genius friend comes over to set up the point totals mathematically impossible spreadsheets with all sorts of formulas everywhere... and myself having to (probably) retype all this... I must merely sit back slack jawed and think

why do i keep doing this?

Billy D said...

Wow, I was the only one who picked Cruz for Nine...

For some reason, I just don't see it happening for Pfeiffer. I think she's been out-of-sight-out-of-mind for too long with the Academy, and the movie seems too funny-period rather than grand-period.

I'd love to see her there, if the performance works, but I also somehow see Cruz missing out for Broken Embraces and her being far more embraced for Nine.

Rich Aunt Pennybags said...

I am not at all surprised by Cruz's placement in the top five. In fact, I thought she'd be higher. She's on such a hot streak right now that everyone seems to expect her to be nominated a million more times in the next few years. It just screams Nicole Kidman to me. I don't think she gets a nom next year. I consciously avoided picking her so as to avoid too many consensus picks.

I also very consciously avoided picking Swank. I just don't think they'll want to give her more recognition. Everyone realizes she's been over-rewarded. If the movie's not all that, I don't think she gets in. But dammit, I'm probably wrong.

What I'm most surprised by is actually Pfeiffer snagging #1 even after that "meh" trailer for Cheri. But I suppose it was one of only a very few (seemingly) obvious choices, mixed buzz be damned... though I do think the perf is better and more substantial than this first trailer would lead us to believe.

I'm just hoping my way under-the-radar pick Sophie Okonedo pays off. She seems to me like the type they'll nominate again...


I tried avoiding the consensus picks this year too because I don't think it will be as predictable as last year, well hopefully not. I even tried to leave Carey Mulligan off my list, but it seemed foolish to do so because she already got great early buzz, and there's always at least one hot, new thing spot.

I avoided Penelope Cruz for the same reasons too. Sure she's on a hot streak now, and perhaps might even be nominated again for Nine, but now that she's won, the Academy may think that they've had enough of her for awhile if they remember when she first tried to crossover to English language films and how badly that went over. I just don't think she's a favorite of theirs like Kate and Cate are, and even Cate had to wait awhile before she became a favorite.

As for Pfeiffer and Swank, I haven't heard bad things about Cheri, but the buzz hasn't exactly been deafening either. On the other hand, I've read that Amelia is terrible including Swank, and you're right I do think that it's not seen as quite that great thing that Swank actually has two leading Oscars. I sense Sally Field territory with her; although I love Sally so much more, but I have a feeling neither will ever be nominated again.

Wouldn't it be excellent if Meryl ended up winning for the Nancy Meyers film? Assuming it's good, of course. And it'd pretty much have to be in order to win best actress as a rom com.

I'm betting it just gets the standard globe nom while Julia Child laps up all the attention.


I'm worried about this too because I went with the Nancy Meyers film over J&J because I think she'll go supporting with that role and finally get a double nomination this year since that's one thing that she's never done before, and if she can't win this year either which is possible, then a double nomination will be her very small reward for her. Perhaps a romcom is just what she needs to win though since it's totally different than the mostly dramas and biopics that she's been nominated before but lost for.

Ben said...

I'm somewhat surprised Cruz scored so high. The early word on "Broken Embraces" seems kind of so-so. I think she's more likely to get nominated in supporting for "Nine."

I went with the same top 4 and Helen Mirren for "Love Ranch"

Ziyad said...

By the way, I've been told that Penélope Cruz es more supporting in Broken Embraces.

Ashley said...

I give kudos to gduncan for picking Ellen Page for whip it. I really don't think she'll be nominated for that one. Even though they supposedly changed the release date to October. She has a chance to be nominated for supporting possibly for her movie with Susan Sarandon and Cillian Murphy,which will be a TFF.

Alex in Movieland said...

thanks Nat! [for u know what] :)

p.s.: I almost never trust Excel. I use a calculator :D what happened to the good old days?!

adelutza said...

- About Zooey Dsschanel - again, I saw 500 Days of Summer and it's a charming romcom, maybe a little funnier and better done then others but still a romcom . I think if anybody gets a nomination for that it'll be Meryl. But stranger things have been seen :-)

- I was thinking about Cheri and all the reactions after seeing the trailer - it's just a trailer. I believe in Michelle, it's exactly the kind of role she's perfect in.
If she doesn't pull it off now I doubt she'll ever do it - what better role then this??

- Penelope is at her best in Almodovar's films. But it'd be the forth year in a row that the Academy gave the Oscar to a European actress. I really think this year it's going to be a well established American movie star. Streep or Pfeiffer in my opinion.

cal roth said...

Didn't entered the contest, but I'm positive Mélanie Laurent will win the Oscar for Inglorious Basterds. She's not in the trailer, but Tarantino said it was THE leading role, and this role is ultra baity.

NATHANIEL R said...

how can you have an ultra baity role in a film that features extreme violence and baseball bat sadism?

and what happened to Pitt being the lead in Basterds?

NATHANIEL R said...

these are questions i find myself asking but cal the notion is certainly intriguing. Quentin being so good with actors (male or female)

Billy Held An Oscar said...

I would like to see Ms Swank attend the 2010 Oscar ceremony....preferably as valet rather than a nominee.

Arkaan said...

re: Cheri

Seems like An Ideal Husband type film. The kind to play to quiet business with quiet reviews, but no one really dislikes it. Even though Frears > Parker in terms of bait/oscarability, Frears himself is not all that consistent in that regards.

Notluke, wanna hear something terrible. I own season three of Doctor Who on DVD and still haven't watched it. I feel liked I'd be cheating on Billie Piper if I did that.

The Know Nothing Know It All said...

Have you sent all the confirmation emails yet?

NATHANIEL R said...

if you entered on the last day possible you may not have received confirmation yet (i'm still adding e-mail indresses into the contact group for future point updates and such)

J.L said...

I should not picked H.Swank in my prediction why?

- I hate her

- The Director is Mira Nair, Vanity Fair anyone remember?

- The Affair of the Necklace + The Black Dahlia = Period Drama = Terrible performance

Anonymous said...

I have a gutsy feeling one Nat's recent 'hump day hotties' make it to his list!

MRRIPLEY said...

has anyone forgot that swank also has true story betty walters due at christmas co starring minnie driver it sounds very baity too so if amelia tanks then she has back up never undersestimate the swank.


NAT WHAT DID WE PICK AS THE TOP 5 THIS TIME LAST YEAR.

Anonymous said...

ALEX

Penelope Cruz won't be nominated for Broken Embraces¡

I've seen the film (I'm spanish) and it is not the best Almodovar work (it's a good film but not a great film) and Penelope's role is not of Oscar caliber (when you see the film you understand).

And, well, Penelope is no a great actress, only a decent actress, it has been a question of good luck the won that year (for one of the worst Woody Allen's films)

I love Hillary, I love especially Pffeifer, I love Streep. If I were the person to choose what actress woull been next best actress Oscar my winner would be Pffeifer.

Howler said...

I already regret I didn't choose Carey Mulligan, but I assumed she's too young and too unknown. Anyway, I've already seen Tilda Swinton and I decided on her since she's spectacular enough in "Julia" to win awards if people see the film.

Seeking Amy said...

I didn't enter because it seems more up in the air than usual this year, but Hilary Swank better stay the hell out this time.

Hayden said...

In what cruel world are Hilary Swank and Michelle Pfeiffer photoshopped into the same image?

NATHANIEL R said...

MR RIPLEY last year the collective prediction this far in advance was

2008

1. STREEP -Doubt
2. WINSLET -Revolutionary Road
3. JOLIE -Changeling
4. MOORE -Blindness
5. BLUNT -Young Victoria

alternates:
6. KIDMAN -Australia
7. HAWKINS -Happy-Go-Lucky
8. WINSLET -The Reader
9. HATHAWAY -Rachel Getting Married

so... the top 5 was 2/5 correct nearly 3/5 correct... but 4/5 were in the top 10 of your votes.

2007 your collective votes a year in advance went like so...

1. BLANCHETT -The Golden Age
2. CHRISTIE -Away From Her
3. KIDMAN -Margot at the Wedding
4. JOLIE -A Mighty Heart
5. (tie) PORTMAN -The Other Boleyn Girl and COTILLARD -La Vie En Rose

alternates:

7.REDGRAVE -Evening
8. BONHAM-CARTER -Sweeney Todd
9. STREEP -Lions for Lambs

so the contest so far has resulted in a score of about 2.5/5 this far in advance ;)

so of these women this year
STREEP
PFEIFFER
SWANK
CRUZ
MULLIGAN

we're looking at probably 2 of them nominated and one of them coming close but being snubbed in some way

Christine said...

I wish I hadn't gone so conservative in my choices. Everyone else's gutsy choices are putting me to shame. If I had gone with who I wanted to win, it would include Charlotte Gainsbourg and Robin Wright Penn among others.

Also, re Tarantino. He always has GREAT roles for women; better than 90% of the directors out there. He is like Polanski in that he is surprisingly woman-friendly, considering the reputation they both as such hyper-masculine directors.

Jorge Rodrigues said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Karen said...

I'm checking out everyone's picks. This is so much fun, thanks Nathaniel!

Karen said...

Oh--and hat tip to whoever picked Hiam Abbass (Lemon Tree). She was great in The Visitor.

Paul Outlaw said...

So my picks come in at 3 (Mulligan), 9 (Mirren/Tempest), 24 (Okonedo), 30 (Scott Thomas), and [tied for] 38 (Mortimer). Hmmm. Mortimer's the only one I regret at this point, actually.

Guy said...

"She's always so good in Stephen Frears' movies."

Well, she was good in the ONE Frears film she appeared in before "Cheri."

;)

Jorge Rodrigues said...

Humm I'm starting to have second doubts about my predictions...

I chose:

Ronan
Mulligan
Cruz
Swank
Pfeiffer

1. Ronan is the lead in the book but how will the book translate into the movie? I'm guessing Weisz probably will compete as lead and Ronan will perhaps be pushed for a supporting campaign (I hope that doesn't happen, because, well, Bright new star + tons of magazine covers + Peter Jackson (guaranteed box office) + cherished book + that previous Oscar nomination + talent = WIN WIN WIN - and win win win me points too :D)

2. It sounded foolish to me to count Mulligan out since the buzz has been so consistent and everyone acknowledges her talent. And we always need a new face among the nominees and we always have one newcomer that outshines the others (think Page in 2008, Hathaway - not a newcomer but you get the point - in 2009).

3. I tried not to go with a big, foxy and ever-present movie star. I was trying to decide between Cruz and Streep. I chose Cruz well, because she seems to be everywhere nowadays and the Academy has been fond of her work recently - Volver (07) and Vicky Cristina Barcelona(09). I'm guessing now that she won't be nominated this year for a lead performance - from what I've heard - I'm from Portugal, Los Abrazos Rotos will premiere very soon here :D can't wait - it is not the baitiest Almodovar role... She may have a shot at a nomination - but just that - with Nine. Nothing else...

4. Swank just because (just to annoy Nathaniel :D). No, because every year there is a performance we're almost sure it lands a nomination even if it's not at all worthy and Swank + 2 Oscars + biopic + Mira Nair + Ewan McGregor = nomination. Don't you think?

5. Pfeiffer, Pfeiffer. I chose her because I think it's her last chance. It's what she does best. Even if the trailer sucks. She was so good in the other Stephen Frears' movie (Dangerous Liaisons). And you have to remember that since her semi-retirement she has become very divisive and her recent raves have been very foggy. But she always delivers.

Other possibilities I considered:

6. I was at the verge of switching Cruz with Mirren. But then again Mirren has 3 nominations and a recent win. And for a biopic. And for a VERY, VERY, VERY OBVIOUS baity role. So... If I were to guess... I'd bet The Tempest lands her nomination. But Love Ranch could do it as well, I suppose.

7. Emily Watson and Brenda Blethyn are both excellent actresses but I am not sure if the movie will help them. If they can carry it smoothly - like Melissa Leo did last year - they have a decent shot.

8. Connelly is like Moore, she needs to gain her gripe back. She has been making terrible choices. And even if this role is good - Darwin's wife - let's not forget that she's fresh out of The Day The Earth Stood Still, Reservation Road and He's Not That Into You. Not sure it will help her campaign (Bride Wars could have destroyed Anne Hathaway last year... if it premiered sooner :D)

9. Tatou has one of the baitiest roles but the movie is AWFUL. Well, not awful, but not pleasant to watch.

10. Meryl Streep WILL be nominated (or at least I think she is). But for her Julia Child. And in supporting. And she will win again (which is an insult for such a classy, talented actress, to have 3 Oscars, two for supporting roles, when that old bat Hepburn has 4 lead actress Oscars...). Nancy Meyers comedy with Baldwin? Let's hope for the best. Something's Gotta Give is not that good...

11. I can see Romola Garai coming. How good is the movie? Will she exceed expectations?

12. And then there's Sophie Okonedo. I was kinda of expecting her «Skin» to win her raves and buzz last year but it got postponed and now I just don't know.


(Guy you're right: I totally missed that one. :D
Thank you for correcting me...)

vince said...

I'm surprised by the lack of love for "Nine.' But, then again, I don't know if lightning can really strike twice for Rob Marshall. But, as a rule, I try never to underestimate the power of the Weinstein's.

Best case scenario: Day-Lewis + one lead actress and two supporting actress nom's. Since the Tony recognition went to the roles played by Cruz, Cotilliard, Dench, so will go the Oscar attention, with Kidman as an outside possibility (as her role got some theatrical award notice). Cotilliard is still relatively unknown considering she has an Oscar--she would be supporting. The lead nom would either be Dench or Cruz. Cruz may be the likelier.

However, in the worst case scenario, the film gets no acting nods or just one (supporting actress). The academy is simply devoted to Dench. If they chose only one, it would be Dench. And, that would still get me some points. That was my rationale. I could only find four actresses I could really commit to, so I got a little strategic with the last one.

However, I feel like I betrayed Gyllenhaal. I mean, she's my girl. But, I guess I saw her first nom to be more Sherrybaby and less playing a reporter to someone else's music star.

vince said...

I actually made guesses for this year's contest last year. My choices:

Pfeiifer/Watson/Delpy/Wright Penn/Theron

I kept Pfeiffer/Watson and dropped the other blondes for Mulligan/Streep (Untitled)/Dench.

vince said...

Mulligan seems the likeliest at this point. She was a Sundance darling. Unless, there are other unknowns out there that can show her up, she's in.

The Nancy Meyers project seems like a big deal ala "As Good As I Gets" and "Something's Gotta Give." You know, a holiday film with a strong female lead (well, if you think Helen Hunt was a strong female lead) that is big on romance with a little comedy thrown in. It's not a role Streep usually gets nominated for, but it's been having such a build-up (I've never known a film that has auditioned so many people I know).

Pfeiffer is just gunning for an Oscar, let alone a nom, ala Kate Winslet last year.

I feel confident in those three.

Watson is a good choice, but the lack of release schedule makes me nervous. Still, the Academy loves Watson when she's showcased properly. And she's got the director of Antonia's Line behind her.

vince said...

As far as the popular choices I didn't go with:

Swank. I don't hate her, but she's over-recognized. Someone correctly referenced her period flops. She's a contemporary actress (again, just like Sally Field). And she's playing a pilot who mysteriously disappears. That isn't "Boy's Don't Cry" or "Million Dollar Baby." Still, if she physically transforms herself and we don't recognize her then I'll have to eat humble pie.

Cruz. She just won an Oscar. Someone mentioned that she's not fawned over by the Academy like Cate/Kate. It would just seem like over-recognition.

Streep (J&J). Apparently, "directed by Nora Ephron" didn't scare enough people away. Obviously, Streep doesn't need a great director to get nominated. Still, I can't get passed Ephron, even if Streep is imitating an iconic figure. I agree with whoever said they'll push Adams for leading. And pull something like they did with "The Hours" ...

... Can someone explain to me how the Academy got to decide Winslet couldn't be nominated for supporting for "The Reader" but Julianne Moore could be nominated for supporting for "The Hours"?

vince said...

I can't believe Portman (she was on my ballot for Brothers last year) and Blunt got so many votes for delayed films. I think contestants are just waiting for her to follow-up on her Closer nom (I was). She has ranked high every year of the contest. She even ranked higher this year with Brothers than she did last year.

Out of all the other top guesses, I think I underestimated Helen Mirren (especially with the Tempest). Abbie Cornish is a good guess. And, yes, kudo's to the person who chose Jessica Biel. They may get the last laugh ...

vince said...

Uh-oh, i think we all over-looked a Keira Knightley film coming out:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ctoZbeD-GlY

Jorge Rodrigues said...

vince, isn't it an ad for domestic violence?

vince said...

yes. I deliberately left that out.

Wayne B. said...

Oy, I regret my choices now. Can just hope that none of the top five are duds.

Bernardo S said...

Gosh... only 1 of my predictions in the Top 5.
2 in the Top 10.
3 in the Top 15.
4 in the Top 20.
1 that only got 3 votes...

I'm definetely going against the current here...

Kent said...

I honestly thought Abbie Cornish would be higher for BRIGHT STAR. Jane Campion is guiding her and she's fantastic with actresses.

Helen Mirren seems most likely to be nominated in lead for LOVE RANCH. Hackford is directing and Oscar does love madams.

Why isn't Emily Watson higher ? I don't get it.

My current predictions (they change a lot...)
Abbie Cornish, BRIGHT STAR
Helen Mirren, LOVE RANCH
Carey Mulligan, AN EDUCATION
Hilary Swank, AMELIA
Emily Watson, WITHIN THE WHIRLWIND

Though, I hope Swank is through with Oscar. Two Best Actress Oscars is enough. No more nominations, please.

However, I'm rooting for Michelle Pfeiffer in CHERI and Meryl Streep in the NANCY MEYERS FILM, provided they give great performances. But no worries there ;)

Bernardo said...

i'm so regretting having Kebede instead of Mulligan...

Anonymous said...

Jorge Rodrigues:

Coco avant Chanel is one of my most anticipated of the year: what made it so bad?

cal roth said...

Nat, according to Empire, Shosanna is the main role of the movie, not Aldo Raine. It's a two-converging-stories script, and Laurent's segment are all about her. Tarantino said it is the main part. He also says he decided do beef it up the character from the original screenplay. You can find the link at note 35 in IB's wikipedia page.

Wait and see: I feel like this performance could be something really genius. Not only because QT is very good with actors, but because his female characters are outstanding. Oscar has showed some taste to risqué characters...

Worst scenario: category fraud and Laurent goes supporting, but it's a performance to watch.

cal roth said...

One more thing: Shoshana is a young Jewish girl on the run during WWII. It's a Tarantino movie, but he said his approach to this part was more real. It can be really big.

Daisy said...

I think that I was waaayyy too bold in my choices,but....what can I do about it.Yay for Pene and Mulligan.Didn't expect Portman to be that popular though.
By the way I'm Lena on the ballot

gina said...

Oh yes, Jane Campion always gets her lead actress nominated : Kidman in Portrait, Winslet in Holy Smoke, Ryan in In the Cut..

except for The Piano, she's too indie/weird/feminist for The Academy.

PS : All 3 actresses were brilliant in these films

Jorge Rodrigues said...

Anonymous 5:27 PM:

COCO AVANT CHANEL (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=obXrWJaV8Hg&feature=related)

It's not that it's bad... But the French are expecting to hit again like they did with Marion Cotillard and this time things don't look so good.

The main problem is that this is probably one of this year lead actresses' baitiest roles... And Audrey Tatou has everything to her favour. And with such high expectations, I'm afraid the movie can't meet them... (like Chéri)

The film premieres in France in April 22; then we will begin to see people's reaction but some french critics seem to think it's too lightweight, Tautou doesn't seem able to disappear into character and some even refer problems with Anne Fontaine writing the screenplay with Tautou in mind and afterwards directing the movie...

I was counting on Tautou hitting big - it was one of my five predicted ones a month ago but now... I don't know.

The trailer looks fine, doesn't it? But again, like Chéri, seems too light, too soft for Oscar...

Maybe I'm not analysing this well...

Jorge Rodrigues said...

What do you think about Tautou in this Coco's scene?


http://www.premiere.fr/Cinema/News-Cinema/Video/Audrey-Tautou-est-Coco-avant-Chanel-un-extrait-exclusif/(gid)/1562382

Jorge Rodrigues said...

The problem is that many people talk about the movie like this:

«Much like Sex and the City, I already know that this film isn't for guys in the least. Not only is it a luscious French period piece, but it's a biopic about fashion icon Coco Chanel (and it's not about the FAMOUS Chanel, it's about the life before Chanel became someone interesting). Unless you really appreciate fashion or love period pieces or speak French, then I suggest you stop here, because I know you probably won't enjoy this at all»

What a stupid prejudice...

Nick M. said...

Jorge, in these cases the quality of the film does not matter too, too much. I mean, did you see "La Vie en Rose"?

Fernando Moss said...

La Vie en Rose sucks... BIG TIME...

That's why Cotillard SEEM so good in it... BECAUSE SHE HAD A HORRIBLE FILM SURROUNDING HER...

So I guess if Tatou is as bad as Cotillard or at least a little good and the film is as horrible as La Vie in Rose, she might have a spot to fill.

josh said...

I have read Veronika Decides to Die and it is a juicy role for Gellar. She has always been a good actress but this seems like a breakthrough role for her being taken seriously as an actress. Also Emily Mortimer's role in Shutter Island is a supporting role.

Anonymous said...

There's nothing to surprise at Penelope. She is now an Academy Award Winner and her status is bigger.

What's up with this Mulligan buzz????

Paul Outlaw said...

@ Josh:
Emily Mortimer's role in Shutter Island is a supporting role.

Which is why I'm regretting the pick. ;-) But we'll see...

Logand D said...

Well, I've seen Broken embraces and Penélope delivers one of the best performances of her career and isn't supporting, and all the critics (even the bads) that the film had in Spain coincided in how extraordinary is Cruz in that film(the lips scene is probably the best that she ever did). So, she have chances of another nomination, imo. I must confess I have no clue of who is winning this year, Pfeiffer? No, the reviews weren't good and the release is so early that probably will hurt her chances, afterall Away from her and La vie en rose had good reviews. Cruz? No, she won last year. Swank? She isn't Ingrid Bergman. So, I suppose is all between Carey Mulligan, Audrey Tautou cause the trailer isn't bad and she looks good (people is blind with her hate for Tautou and can't see that she has strong chances if the film is any good) and maybe Brenda Blethyn if her performance in London River is enough good. I have Rinko Kikuchi in my predictions but I don't know if the film will be released this year, my reasons for having her is the extraordinary work of Isabel Coixet with actresses: Cruz in Elegy, Coixet in My life without me and Secret life of words and Lily Taylor in Things I never told you.

NATHANIEL R said...

well you can still get points for a supporting nominee... just a lot less.

Anonymous said...

Streep will not stop til she gets her third OSCARS!!!! For Pete's sake, academy, GIVE IT TO HER! She deserves it!!!!!