In the new charts you'll find big losses for Avatar. It's not that I haven't lost faith in James Cameron's ability to deliver a spectacle but that so much of the film appears to be entirely CGI. It'll have natural disadvantages in some of the categories I expected it to be a contender in because AMPAS still prefers the weight of actual objects and the atmosphere of actual sets to CGI generated ones. Which is probably a good thing when it all shakes out.
With so many big or baity or intriguing looking movies moving to 2010 (The Wolf Man, The Tempest, Shutter Island) and still more not truly settled release date or distribution wise there's a lot of movement in the charts. I'm probably taking a big risk predicting so many nominations for Sherlock Holmes for example and there's maybe not enough here for Up in the Air which is just beginning to hum rather than buzz yet. Guy Ritchie does not make people scream "OSCAR!" but the below the line team is delicious Academy bait, if you ask me. I mean: Philipe Rousellot behind the camera, Jenny Beavan's costume design magic, Sarah Greenwood heading up art direction and sets, um ... yes please!
We -- and by we I mean everyone who predicts Oscars professionally on the web and everyone who does so at home -- always think we know more about the acting categories in early September than we ever ever do. Keep that in mind when you're looking at anyone's predictions. It's not over till it's over and in fact it's barely begun. Expect shake ups to come. But where?
Index of Predicted Nominations | Picture | Director | Actor | Actress | Supporting Actor | Supporting Actress | Screenplay | Costume Design | Technical Categories (Visual) | Technical Categories (Aural) | Animation
Keep in mind these charts do not reflect my opinion of worth (that's what I sprinkle throughout my editorials throughout the year) but my sometimes faulty sometimes incisive prophesies about what Oscar will glom onto.
I'd also suggest reading the Film School Rejects long but necessary explanation of the new voting roles to determine "Best Picture" (if you haven't already). No, it's no longer as simple as checking the box by your favorite film's name.
turn and face the strange ch-ch-changessss
The foreign film pages and the actress psychic point totals (thus far) will be up as soon as I can manage. But in the meantime, discuss. Who'd I forget. Which film do you think is going to firm up its release date in time? Are there any more delays coming? Pull out your