Sunday, October 22, 2006

October Oscar Predictions

Because I'm still proud to have predicted that Flags of Our Fathers would never be the frontrunner that most every other prognosticator proclaimed it to be a year ago, I've left it at #6. This is just me being stubborn. I know this. No need to call me on it. It will most likely make it into the shortlist. But I can dream that the distance --it's still a long way until nominations if you stop to think on it-- will cool the heat generated by the lukewarm-for-raves raves as it were. If you follow me.

You see, the name critics have already rolled over and kissed Clint Eastwood's ass rather than actually doing their job. Consequently, the pre-Oscar awards bodies who get the seasonal ball rolling and who are obsessed with being seen as "predictive" of Oscar nominations, have been given something of a greenlight and will probably follow suit. Plentiful "masterpiece" comments from the blurb whores go a long way if you're already right up Oscar's alley.

It's a shame since the filmmakers in question have been amply rewarded in the past for better material.

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[new predictions in all categories are in progress]

40 comments:

Andy Scott said...

I haven't been feeling FOOF all year, either. I don't think people realize that as much as the Academy loves Clint, they're not going to reward him EVERY year. Plus, they released it at a horrible time. Despite decent reviews, the box office numbers are terrible.

But I'm glad you've included The Queen. I don't see how it won't be nominated if the Helen Mirren buzz continues. Capote redux, perhaps?

john g. said...

I think you're underestimating Clint's pull with the old-fogey voting crowd, as well as UNITED 93's chances. Don't "feel" it for VOLVER, as far as a best picture nod with AMPAS. But it feels like Scorsese's year, after all.

Mikkel said...

I can see you've been bumping Children of Men a bit (especially in Director). Having seen the film, I would recommend dropping it altogether (except for art direction and perhaps cinematography). It is just not an Oscar-kind of movie. And quite frankly it is just not that good anyway.

adam k. said...

When is Inland Empire being released? Maybe that will be the touch of greatness this year desperately needs.

JavierAG said...

Adam, this year's touch of greatness might be "Volver" and "Volver" alone, with so many projects relegated to "disappointment" status. It's scary, really - 2006 looked so great from a distance. But Best Actress still looks mighty strong (except that there are 7 or 8 contenders and no longer 20...)

Anyway, Nat's lineup is my lineup too at the moment, except "Volver" will probably be replaced by something boring when the nominations come.

Patrick said...

Nate,
I think FOOF might still get snubbed.
Any other year I'd say it waltzes in. I feel like there is such a sense of Zeitgeist this year. Whether real or imagined, a lot of media has the perception of cataclysmic change on the horizon. (Google aquisition of Youtube, migration of network TV program ont o Internet and In-Demmand, NBC UNIVERSAL's cutbacks in news to focus on 'New Media', the Bubble controversey, Yari Film Group's left-field sucess with "The Illusionist")

Add to that the anti-war mentality of the country,the potential shakeup of the midterm elections, I'd say that the atmosphere has changed in the last 2 years since Clint last won.

just a suspicion, but this doesn't strike me as a banner year for a Clint movie.

Ali said...

If that's what the Best Picture line-up ends up looking like (with the exception of Babel), I will be a happy camper.

Kin said...

I think it is time to seperate United 93 and World Trade Center. The reviews for them are really not in the same level.

And United 93 will probably gets a lot more critcs awards/top 10 lists then WTC.

NATHANIEL R said...

kin --i hear you. But I think Oscar's general preference for glossy and erring on the side of sentimental sorta evens their playing field.

patrick --obviously i hope you're right. FooF just isn't a great movie, not even of its genre. But we'll see.

javier--give Marie-Antoinette a chance. I was shocked that it's so hated. even if it has offputting elements or theme or what have you it's pure cinema. which so few movies shoot for.

Kamikaze Camel said...

It's hard to see whether Flags is this year's Munich or this year's Cold Mountain. The former was being written off but got in by pure virtue of it's being (a Spielberg movie about terrorism) while the latter seemed like it would get in by pure virtue (Anthony Mingella war romance with great cast) but then missed at the final moment.

I haven't included Flags in my predictions until just recently and now I regret it. I don't think it'll happen. Flags could be a movie that all the critics hailed because they figured it'd be Oscary and box office hit, but now that it's not a hit they'll back off from giving it awards.

The lineup though looks pretty good for right now. Am very interested to see who you've changed your Best Actress category towards.

Kamikaze Camel said...

Oh, and yes. How off. The Departed and Scorsese are looking more and more likely as the days go. And if they both get nominated? Well, all the Scorsese freaks will be drawing blood if he doesn't win.

NATHANIEL R said...

usually i start with actors and actresses but you'll notice it's the only thing not updated at the moment.

the possibilities
the possibilities

Middento said...

Personally, I'm stunned that FOOF is getting all this attention since, quite frankly, it ain't such a great film. Everything you currently have in the top five (and a few bubbling under) both seem fresher and (oddly enough) still relatively Oscar-friendly, so I see no need for the Academy to award Clint or anyone else for this overripe piece of treacle.

Kamikaze Camel said...

Marie Antoinette A-? I couldn't be happier.

Well, I'd be happier if it were actually being released here before December. But, yay.

Beau said...

Flags Of Our Fathers is the most overrated film of the year.
Period.
Hands down.

The editing is all over the place, the acting is just plain average (no one in this cast deserves Oscar consideration), and the film is just too damn long. And don't even get me started on the last few minutes. Ugh.

adam k. said...

Yeah, I think the critics are embarrassing themselves praising the fillm Flags is trying to be instead of criticizing the film it is. Cold Mountain got similar raves where I was like "whaaa-- what film did THEY see?"

I'd bet audiences won't be that enthused with it and bad word of mouth will cripple it... as will the lack of enthusiastic #1 voting supporters at awards-time.

That said, I still expect it too be nommed at this point. But the story will be told in the coming months.

Kamikaze Camel said...

Thankfully they released in October so by January any buzz it had may have well and truly worn off. Not like Munich last year.

Gerry said...

Thomas Newman has replaced David Holmes as the composer of "The Good German", which strikes me as a far better scoring opportunity than "Little Children".

I respect your sticking by your FooF instinct. It could still easily pull a "Munich" but it remains VERY vulnerable. Though it really strikes me as a "BP and BD or neither" sort of film and not one that would get a lone director nod for Clint.

JavierAG said...

Yeah... a Director nomination for Eastwood??? That's where I disagree with Nat. I think the directors are smarter than that, and if FooF gets in, it gets in Best Picture alone.

Arkaan said...

kamikaze, it's worth remembering that while they did pass up Cold Mountain in 2003, they did let a similarly oscar bait film sail through (Seabiscuit). Nathaniel's line-up, as it stands, is fairly devoid of bait (Babel = tricky drama about modern terrorism with interlocking stories; Volver = foreign, so therefore not baity for the big category; Departed is a violent genre film. Only The Queen and Dreamgirls have a modicum of oscarbait). I still feel comfortable predicting Flags of Our Fathers because... the academy needs it's bait. That, and I really think Nathaniel's overestimating Babel, Dreamgirls, and The Departed. It's a wierd oscar year.

I'm a bit puzzled by the fact that Nathaniel dropped The Good Shepherd down to 16th (just ahead of Marie-Antoniette). It's got a baity hook (it's a biopic about the CIA, for all intents and purposes), respected cast (Matt Damon is one of those stars you figure Hollywood respects given his career path; other oscar winners fill out roles), and it's got weight. The late release will likely harm it, but I think it's in a good position at the moment.

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Sid said...

On a sidenote Nat, an A- for Marie Anotinette? Hmm... waiting to hear more from you on that one...

Anonymous said...

I also very much doubt Volver making it in for Best Pic, despite the thrill it would give me if it did, being my #1 of the year thus far. It has an "auteur" shot at a Director nom though.

Completely with Kin on the chances of United 93. Matter of fact, I can't imagine it NOT making it into the final five. Conversely, I'm officially on a shuttle to Mars if they nominate World Trade Center for best pic.

On the best actress front, I didn't know Sienna Miller was in anything that had any kind of buzz. That depresses the crap out of me, because you just KNOW that if they have the option of rewarding the likes of Streep, Mirren, Winslet, Bening, and/or mabye Dench, then they're BOUND to go with someone like Sienna Miller.

Rob

etslee said...

I've only been following the Oscars recently, but I don't understand the sure-thing frontrunner status already given to Dreamgirls. It's already been hyped so much that it has nowhere to go but down.

NATHANIEL R said...

sorry i haven't been posting today kids.

argh. the dayjob is killing me today.

oh and etslee. yeah, that's dreamgirls biggest problem. the overhype factor. But considering how dominant it will be in december and there's no comedies/musicals of any significant Oscar pull, I think it'll be an easy shortlist spot to land.

consider that it will be THE story of the Golden Globes regardless. and that helps.

adam k. said...

Yeah, I don't think anyone is saying Dreamgirls is a shoe-in to WIN, per se, but it really is a shoe-in to get nominated. Even if it's disappointing (and there are no signs that it will be), the globes will eat it up with a shiny silver spoon - it absolutely will be their favorite film - comedy/musical dominance will help it, oscar's affirmative action trending will help it, the box office will help it, and it has so many categories covered that it really can't miss in the big race. This is not a "Munich" or a "Cold Mountain." It's a "Chicago" i.e. a film everybody will really really like.

Right now I'm thinking it's a Dreamgirls/Marty split.

Kamikaze Camel said...

But will the Academy give their BP to a, and yes it's true, "black movie". It would be kind of surreal to actually see Marty take out Best Director though.

BTW, Flags had a budget of $90mil and only made $10mil in it's opening week. If it doesn't have legs it'll go down as a big disappointment ala Cinderella Man. Oscar bait subject and director, tailor made for Oscar, but...

Stephen G said...

Much as I'd love to see UNITED 93 make Best Picture, its realism makes it confronting/harrowing/difficult to sit through. Which makes it fodder for the lone Directing slot, but I think it's unlikely to get enough memebrs watching/voting it into Picture. LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE still feels like the "little film that could" to me.

And wasn't it great (if, like me, you preferred The Aviator to M$B) to see THE DEPARTED, in its 3rd week, beating out FOOF at the BO in its first?

15 year old blogger said...

Little Children, The Departed, Marie Anoinette, Old Joy, and Half Nelson receieved Gotham Award nominations for Best Picture.

Last years winner (Capote) and nominee (Brokeback) for BP went on to receive Oscar noms and Amy Adams and Bennet Miller also received noms.

Anonymous said...

I'm betting that Prairie Home Companion ends up with something in the Original Song category. I believe that Goodbye to My Mama, The Day is Short, and Bad Jokes are original to the film.

Kamikaze Camel said...

if "Goodbye to Mama" is indeed original then it's definitely a contender there. That song was great. And wouldn't it be a hoot to see Meryl and Lily performing on stage (again)

The Gotham awards don't mean shit, quite frankly. They're even less relevant than their cousins, the Independent Spirit Awards. Independed spirit my arse.

Michael C. said...

This is just a gut feeling, but I think everyone may be really underestimating The Pursuit of Happyness. More than any other film, it looks like it has a chance to score an emotional bulls-eye. Also, Will Smith is starting to look well positioned to be a real contender in the Best Actor race. If it delivers on this level, and the reviews are at least positive if not enthusiastic, I think it will ride a wave of public support, and enough voters will be willing to overlook flaws in overall quality to give it a nomination. After all, these are people that nominated Finding Neverland and Chocolat, among others.

Or none of this will happen and I'm imagining things. We'll see.

Kamikaze Camel said...

Yeah, a few people (myself included) are starting to get that feeling. Of course, it's directed by a woman so she won't get anywhere that race. :P

Stephen G said...

The Pursuit of Happyness sounds pretty sappy, and I can't help thinking of Antwone Fisher and The Majestic in that regard. Still, it may surprise, but by no means it is a sure thing sight unseen.

adam k. said...

Hm, I am thinking more it's more of an I Am Sam in that it will get a nod for the actor, but that's it.

And actually, might the kid who plays Will's kid get somewhere in the supporting actor race, if everyone falls in love with him? I think it's not impossible.

15 year old blogger said...

The Pursuit of Happyness is directed by a guy. Don't be fooled by the Gabriele.

daveylow said...

I think Ten Canoes could sneak into the Foreign Film nominations. When I was in Toronto there was a lot of buzz about it and it sounds fascinating. I had ticket for it but was jet lagged and couldn't make the early morning screening.

Kamikaze Camel said...

LOL @ Gabriele. Oops, my bad.

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Anonymous said...

"Volver" for a Best Picture nod!!