Thursday, December 18, 2008

Wrestling With Florida

As we discovered earlier today with the SAG nominations, the Oscars are all but over, a month before the nominations are announced: Slumdog Millionaire will win. Barring Benjamin Button becoming a huge hit (iffy) with the public when it opens @ Christmas, Slumdog just has too large a constituency to leapfrog. Especially when the other Best Picture hopefuls have larger obstacle to a win (genre, gay focus, too lightweight, etcetera).

Today the Danny Boyle inspirational picked up it's umpteenth BP win from Florida's Critics. I was born in Florida so I perk up whenever I hear "Florida" though what follows those three syllables is almost never something I want to hear what with Bush dynasties, hanging chads, anti-gay legislation and hurricanes as frequent chasers. The good news: The Wrestler picked up both Actor and Supporting Actress and it probably needs whatever teensy attention it can muster at this point. They so miscalculated with the mid December release date for such a small and seemingly modest movie. It needed time to sink in as a contendah. Full list of Florida winners here. On a 'they clearly don't take this too seriously' note, the Florida Film Critics web page hasn't been updated since 2006. If they don't care why should we?

I'll try to post a smidgeon about the other critics awards tomorrow... but I've updated my Oscar pages to reflect all the wins in the top eight categories. Thank you to Scene Stealers for an updated chart of winners thus far.


Glenn said...

It is a very "okay, who's next?" set of awards, isn't it? Nothing particularly memorable or different at all.

Glenn said...

OMG I just read the London Critics Circle Film Awards contenders and they nominated Clint Eastwood for Best Director for Changeling.. and he's the lone director! Hah!

NicksFlickPicks said...

I know everybody thinks I'm crazy, but the Slumdog nod at SAG doesn't necessarily diminish the chances of WALL•E, which obviously isn't eligible there. If it gets the BP nod, and I don't understand why so many people assume that the Animation category makes this impossible (it's not like Foreign Films haven't qualified lately, even when they have their "own" category...), it works the "heartwarming" angle at least as well, and it's more of a hometown champ than Slumdog is. I really, really think WALL•E is the movie to beat Slumdog, or at the very least the movie that has the best shot.

NicksFlickPicks said...

I put "heartwarming" in quotations, because it's hard for me to have my heart warmed by a movie that starts with water-boarding and includes eye-gouging, electro-shocking, mother-cudgeling, comic shit-dipping, bad acting, and tasteless and inflated cross-cuts between "heartwarming" climaxes and close-range shoot-outs.

adam k. said...

I want WALL•E to get nominated so bad.

The Know Nothing Know It All said...

I'm getting "Slumdog" fatigue. The Best Picture race is getting very boring very fast.

Regarding best actor, if Clint is out (which I think he might be), who wins? Does anyone think that Penn can win this, despite his win in 2003?

Glenn said...

Same. And not just because I love the movie, but more because it'd be something different as opposed to a Ron Howard oscar bait title or whathaveyou, ya know?

adam k. said...

Yeah, plus then it could maybe even win. It strikes me as the Marcia Gay Harden type of surpise nominee = surprise winner. And then there might be some real drama.

I assumed this year would shape up to be a battle royale between Button and Slumdog, but now it's not even a contest. And director's even less of a contest (Boyle's generally winning even at the awards where his film loses). Sooo boring.

adam k. said...

And yes I personally do think Penn can win.

Anonymous said...

Finally saw Slumdog yesterday, and I would say it is not a bad film at all. But is it the best film of the year? Probably not. If it wins the Oscar for BP, would I be shouting profanities? Probably not. However, I think the best written character of the film is Salim, the bigger brother. He is driven by greed, but he is also torn apart by brotherhood and other factors. I would rather have him nominated for Best Supporting ACtor, rather than the naive Jamal.

karen said...

I'm thinking Melissa Leo will get a nom, and if there's a surprise nom it's gonna be Michelle Williams

Streep and Hathaway are the only locks.
Hawkins is number 3, she's almost sure to get in,

Then it's a battle for the last two spots between Jolie, Winslet, Leo and Scott-Thomas, with Williams waiting in the shadow

i have the feeling no one from Revolutionary Road will get in, but that Winslet will win in support

so i think Jolie's in because it's a perf tailor-made for the Oscars and that Leo gets the last spot as the indie American girl of the year

adam k. said...

I think the only way Winslet's RR perf doesn't get in is if her Reader perf gets more votes and is nominated in that category instead.

Bernardo S said...

As of right now I think the Picture and Director Oscars will go to different movies. One for Benjamin Button and one for Slumdog. Right now I think David Fincher will get the honor for director.

However, I just realized something...
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button has huge possibilities in loads of categories:

- Makeup
- Costumes
- Art Direction
- Cinematography ??
- Score

There's also slight chances in others such as Screenplay, Editing (both Slumdog's to lose), FX, Sound (all for Iron Man unlike they realize the Sound Editing bliss of WALL·E)

Could this give Benjamin the advantage it needs?

P.S. WALL·E for Best Picture 100%
P.S.S. I've finally gotten over my wet dream of The Reader as a nominee and it's all the way down from #5 to #7 in my predix with WALL·E taking 5 and the stupid superhero movie at 6.

Mariposa said...

La Winslet won Las Vegas. Winslet for the Oscar! Even if Hathaway deserves it (I have seen almost nooooooo films, over here in Europe nothing opens :( ), I want Kate to get it! Anyone with me ?

Anonymous said...

I loved "Milk" and "The Dark Knight" even more more than "WALL-E", but I'm dying to see it being nominated and winning. I agree with Nick that it's probably the only film capable of beating "Slumdog Millionaire" (if it manages to take "Frost/Nixon"'s spot).

I'm disappointed that SAG didn't find a place for James Franco. He'll probably be nominated by BAFTAs (they nominated Laura Linney for supporting Sean Penn in "Mystic River" and loved Jake Gyllenhall in "Brokeback Mountain"), but I don't think it'll mean that much to Oscars at this point.


Rich Aunt Pennybags said...

I'm getting "Slumdog" fatigue. The Best Picture race is getting very boring very fast.

I'm probably wrong, but I think that it still has a chance of losing Best Picture. It might not seem likely now, but if The Curious Case of Benjamin Button does become a become hit, and/or the voters get Slumdog Millionaire fatigue too, I think that it loses. There doesn't seem to be a picture that can topple it now not like last year with There Will Be Blood which seemed like it could upset, but we'll see where the Guilds go.

Further, if it does win Best Picture, I just think that there will be a Best Director split because to me I think the perception would be that Gus Van Sant or even maybe one of the other first timers like Darren Aronofsky, David Fincher, or Christopher Nolan (assuming that's who might get in) are more due than Boyle. Like I said before though, I'm probably wrong.