It's the first Oscar predictions of the year. Well, the first ones by me. In the olden days -- in internet time I am now practically Methusaleh (sigh) -- I was nearly always first with my April Fools based predictions. Now everyone and their shut-in neighbor does them before the current years winners have even shaken their hangovers. (The booze flows at that Vanity Fair party, man). So now I pull up the rear. I don't look at anyone else's predictions (well, except yours... because I have to) until I've made mine so as not to be unduly influenced by someone else's prophesies or overall groupthink.
And I do well [pats self on back].
I usually begin by amassing a gargantuan list of possibilities. I then whittle away using gut instincts, past performances, the director involved and the type of role until I'm left with a bakers dozen or so who I could easily see being in play. Then I torture myself and put them in order of likelihood (to be nominated, not to win). And then I hand you the BEST ACTRESS chart.
For entertainment purposes only. The charts don't reflect my specific preferences since I don't have them yet (beyond the generalized love for certain actresses). For the past two years in Best Actress I've scored 3 of the 5 correct this far in advance. So, once you've seen my predictions... feel free to trash 2 of my gut instincts.
Naturally, I'm a little shakier in Supporting Actress. It's harder to understand the supporting races before the films arrive. Often we don't know the details of the roles. We never know the amount of screentime. These categories are also far more prone to being influenced by the overall feelings towards the film that houses them than the lead categories are. That makes early predictions tough. I've only scored 3 of 5 once in supporting actress a whole year in advance. That was the banner year of Chicago (2002) where I saw Queen Latifah coming (among others) months before anyone else did. Last year I managed 2 of the 5 this early (Viola & Taraji) -- 3 if you count Kate who ended up winning in the Best Actress category. That same "half right!" event could happen again this year since I've opted to put Meryl Streep's Julia Child in the BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS Chart.
More categories to come. Discuss!