Sunday, October 04, 2009

Oscar Predictions: Acting, Lead and Otherwise

Obviously my early September Oscar predictions went the way of vinyl and VHS once Toronto and Venice and the flurry of shifting distribution fates hit. This happens at the end of September and in early October every year but it's always disorienting... at least for me. Maybe you're less driven mad by it than I. 'You mean this brand new movie that got incredible raves and dream buzz is going to wait 10 more months for release and this other movie that everyone had given up on and isn't all that excited about is now opening in two weeks. okaaayyyy, crazy distributor people. You do what you gotta do.'

Clooney and Day-Lewis discuss Oscar warm-up rituals

In Best Actor, I'm still holding on to my gamble that Oscar voters don't want to get mushy or frisky with Daniel Day-Lewis in Nine (he never gets nominated for his "soft" movies) but it's starting to feel like a lose-the-house bet with so little in the way of Best Actor heavyweights. Damn it! I really thought I was going to look brilliant when Oscar nomination rolled around and they skipped DDL. But maybe not. Oopsie. Anyway, could Colin Firth in A Single Man really be the frontrunner, now that he's emerged from festival season so super-charged? It was so sudden and so... unexpected. Or maybe it's George Clooney for Up in the Air though a second Oscar in four years seems overly kind.

Over in Best Supporting Actor there's less drama. I hate when you think you've found the lineup as early as October. Something of note needs to happen soon. The only dramatic question is "who could win?" because that does seem like a question with five answers (for now).

We discussed Best Supporting Actress last week. Since then I'm aware that the talk about putting Marion Cotillard into lead for Nine is gaining momentum. If the studio actually does go through with this once the FYC drum-beating begins I think it a huge mistake. One, the Best Actress category is super competitive this year (wheee!) and Two, even if you give Cotillard a few more songs in Nine it's still a story with one lead, being about a man and his intense relationships to women, plural. They'd be sacrificing one potential nod for another. Doesn't make much sense... unless Cotillard's handlers are greedy/delusional and actually think they can win her two nominations for Nine (lead) and Public Enemies (supporting). And, well, I guess she has beaten considerable odds before.

A friendly pre-season luncheon. Drinks with Lea, Julia and Amelia

Each of these updated acting pages has adjusted text and predictions, though a few things haven't changed. I still insist that Best Actress is only a Meryl Streep (Julie & Julia) vs. Carey Mulligan (An Education) duel... and the other three nominations will be hard fought. More categories to come tomorrow or over the next couple of days depending on how the time flies.

ACTOR | ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | DIRECTOR | BEST PICTURE | FOREIGN FILM

Return and report: What do you think we already know? Which category do you proclaim a total mystery?
*

72 comments:

adri said...

The supporting actress who has completely won me over so far, is Melanie Laurent in "Inglourious Basterds". When she started putting on her make-up, some little core tension dissolved, and I thought, at last, a real film heroine. How long I've been waiting.

And as I mentioned in another thread, I think Bening and Mirren (and maybe even Pfeiffer) may bump Streep in the Best Actress category. But we'll see what happens with their movies.

NATHANIEL R said...

i wish Bening's had a release date. :(

Jude said...

I think the total mystery comes in the form of Best Director, especially now that there are ten Best Picture nominations, meaning 5 of those pictures' directors won't be nominated.
There's also a lot going against some Best Picture favorites' directors. The Hurt Locker and Bright Star were directed by women, which goes against some traditional Academy rules of hating female directors. And a film like Avatar is either going to be known as the film that brought James Cameron back to the Kodak, or the film that was a big mess of CGI and live-action.
The only think I'm really sure of with the Director category is Clint Eastwood for Invictus. I mean, the Academy loves him!

Agustin said...

I still think Streep won't get to a nomination.. Too light, not especially memorable, in 3 months people will forget her. She's Streep, sure, but there are a lot of other possible nominees giving her a fight for the nod. Its the crodwiest acting award this year, she WILL be overlooked, remember my words..

Jim T said...

Nathaniel, I love Kate but I have to say that Angela Lansbury holds the record for youngest to get two nominations.

I understand that Swank in Amelia looks really Oscar material but we haven't seen her yet as opposed to Mirren (well, at least some people have) who's performance was well liked. Although Swank does look good in the trailer.

NicksFlickPicks said...

My predix are going live on Tuesday, but I'll say for now that I'm not convinced about Damon in Invictus, and I think Supporting Actor could easily still surprise. For one thing, don't the It's Complicated guys at least have a shot?

Jim T said...

I forgot to mention that it's Kate's birthday. Happy birthday heavenly creature!

PS: It's not yet in US time.

Anonymous said...

Streep is a lock for a nomination. I don't get these fools who claim she won't even get nominated. Face the facts - she is a lock for a nod and most likely will win...

mrripley said...

my acting precictions

actor
jeremy renner
christopher plummer
george clooney
colin firth
daniel day lewis

actress
hilary swank
helen mirren
gabourey sibide
meryl streep
carey mulligan

s/actor
anthony mackie
james mcavoy
stanley tucci
christopher waltz
alec baldwin

s/actress
susan sarandon
judi dench
anna kendrick
m'onique
marion cotillard

Michael said...

If Precious were to get another Supporting Actress nomination I would put my money on Paula Patton rather than Mariah Carey. Patton not only has a lot more screen time but also she's the one who guides and takes care of Precious and I have a feeling voters would be more entranced by her.

No Clive Owen for The Boys Are Back? He should at least be in the Top 15. And Audrey Tautou should be in the Top 10.

Guy said...

I'm hesitant to call Firth the frontrunner for such a quiet performance (it doesn't have the kind of in-your-face powerhouse scenes the Academy creams over), but at the same time, I think we're do a first-time winner in the category this year ... so who else is there? It's looking like an odd race.

By the way, I would put one "con" in Firth's column: "A Single Man" is a subtly but defiantly queer movie. The Academy members who were unsettled by "Brokeback" could be completely freaked out by this.

Nick: I've been predicting Baldwin for "It's Complicated," if that helps. Then again, I've also been predicting a Best Picture nod for "It's Complicated," so I could be way off the mark.

Guy said...

And you're right not to be convinced about Damon in "Invictus." Of course, I'm not convinced about the entire film -- that script is IFFY -- but we all know special considerations can apply to Eastwood films.

adelutza said...

Nobody from Nine in the supporting actress category? But two from Up In The Air?

Jim T said...

Nathaniel, I think Mulligan doesn't have a con anymore. I mean, I don't think she needs a very strong campaign. We're all talking about her all the time, the critics are bound to love her (the ones who haven't done it already) and Ebert has called her a lock for a nominations. Right now I think Sidibe
is her opponent for the win more than Streep.

Anonymous said...

Why is Alfred Molina getting all the attention as opposed to Peter Sarsgaard?

I haven't actually seen the film, it just seemed that Sarsgaard had a more pivotal role.

Anonymous said...

Nathaniel, I agree with you that BA is a duel between Streep & Mulligan. Most prediction sites agree as well. Sidibe is getting buzz but is not in the mix for a win and may not even be nominated...

Anonymous said...

It looks like DDL is getting ready for me to insert my cock up his ass.

Glenn said...

One more "pro" for Colin Firth: TRAGIC GAY! The Academy loves their homos to be miserable.

Ryan said...

I am still hoping for Laurent, but I realize that will probably not happen! I don't see two Up in the Air nominations either. I just don't see how a Nine performance won't get in there.

gabrieloak said...

Has no one seen Christian McKay as Welles in Me and Orson Welles? If he doesn't get nominated for Best Supporting Actor it will be a shame. He's perfect in this highly underrated film.

Gustavo Cruz said...

Have you already seen Precious, Nathaniel? Does Lee Daniels reallly have a chance?

NATHANIEL R said...

Gustavo. i unfortunately had to miss the last Precious screening for NYFF. crazy day and I just couldn't make it to the theater. So i will officially be the last person in the "media" to see it. Sigh. Oh me.

Glenn, good point.

adri inglourious basterds is going to be an interesting ride, Oscar wise. It just seems like it could go any which way. or all sorts of ways at once.

gabrieloak whether or not McKay is perfect I think this films long long indecisive history of getting released (not that it's the films fault mind you) tends to put a damper on people even thinking about it.

adelutza people are CRAZY about Up in the Air. We'll see. I still think NINE is iffy in all sorts of ways though it's the movie i'm most anxious to see.

adri said...

Best Costumes seems to be a category overflowing with great candidates this year. An Education, Bright Star, Cheri, Amelia, Inglourious Basterds, Coco Avant Chanel, Nine, Public Enemies... what visual treats.

Arkaan said...

Peter Sarsgaard role IS more important, but he's not quite as effective - at the very least, that accent is all over the place. I don't think it's gonna get an acting nod beyond Mulligan, but I really don't get the supporting categories this early.

Dusty Hixenbaugh said...

Given the "weak" acting line-up, do you suppose there's a chance Walz will jump categories and run as lead? He won Cannes. And there isn't much (any?) excitement behind Brad Pitt, Walz's only in-film competition, for a nomination.

Then again ... he could WIN in supporting.

alluhrey said...

early on, the buzz was about how the best actress category was a weak one.

methinks it's the best actor category that is going to be filled with well, fillers.

alluhrey said...

oh, and i'm tired of people dismissing meryl streep's julia child as light! it was perfect!

Jim T said...

If a DDL performance is considered a filler, then it's a good year.

Alison Flynn said...

I would just like to say how happy I'll be if either Colin Firth or Christopher Plummer win best actor this year, particularly Christopher Plummer. Two amazingly talented and underappreciated actors who have been overlooked for years. It's about time they're acknowledged.

Bing147 said...

Just a few thoughts Nathaniel...

De Niro in Everything's Fine not even in the top 15? I'd say its very possible. Actor looks weak, they haven't nominated him in 20 years, his reviews have been strong and its a remake of a GREAT movie.

I assume the lack of Bening/Watts/Jackson who all have gotten terrific reviews is mainly because of the lack of distribution?

Clive Owen in the Boys Are Back? He's gotten good reviews and its a weak category... seems worth mentioning at least.

DuVall in the Road? Know its short but they've done it before for a veteran and his notices have been outstanding.

Shohreh Aghdashloo deserves at least a mention. A strong campaign could make that happen.

Alex said...

It seems like Best Supporting Actress is shaping up to be the most interesting category again. *Right now* I have my money on...

Judi Dench (Nine)
Vera Farmiga (Up in the Air)
Mo'Nique (Precious)
Julianne Moore (A Single Man)
Susan Sarandon (The Lovely Bones)

Is it bad that I'm hoping backlash accumulates against Mo'Nique in order to pave way for a Julie Moore win? It seems like there's no stopping that woman.

Glenn Dunks said...

Dusty, but remember Cannes doesn't have Lead/Supporting categories. And Waltz is kinda on the fence in regards to whether he is lead or supporting. Some say one, some say the other, but he is an unknown so he'll go supporting.

rubi-kun said...

I have to say, I'm certain Wild Things has better Best Picture chances than Public Enemies!

Michael Parsons said...

A backlash for Mo'Nique. BITE YOUR TONGUE!

I have read good things for Moore, but I have also read that her accent is not the best - something that may not be noticed in the US though.

Sure Moore deserves to win, but i will be sad if it was to give her an award then to award the best performance of the year in that category - which I am aware is something that happens all the time.

I am rooting for Mo'Nique and Gabby all the way.

Arkaan said...

Dusty, as you said, Waltz can win in supporting. It would be like elevating Javier Bardem to lead in 2007.

And I think the both acting categories are reasonably strong, though I will say actress is weaker at this point.

Janice said...

You've added A Single Man as possible BP and Colin Firth to Actor - but not Tom Ford as director? It seems to me that AMPAS loves the "we didn't know you could do that!" type noms - and it sounds in this case that Ford made a genuinely great film? (Who knew?)

He has never been shy about self-promotion (see covers of Vanity Fair, etc) and he's very well known in Hollywood (currently dressing Nicole Kidman's hubby, among others) and those things could either be very very helpful or cause something of a backlash I suppose. (he isn't exactly shy about his gayness either, VF cover notwithstanding)

BOY IN THE PYJAMA said...

Nat, I'm disappointed with your predictions since you don't consider A SERIOUS MAN, a movie that, MARK MY WORDS, will make Best Picture, Best Supporting Actor and Best Original Screenplay noms.

Also, Helen Mirren will be campaigned as supporting. Her performance is 30 minutes in the movie and there's no way she can be named a lead character since Plummer's in the entire movie.

Julianne Moore will not be nominated.

You miss the "Nine" girls in the top 5.

And I don't understand why you mark STREEP as a lock when you also refer as a safe thing to MORGAN FREEMAN or MO'NIQUE. Also, the Coens movie is a LOCK for original screenplay.

And please, no matter if you hate Hilary Swank, but put a photo of her in the predictions.

NATHANIEL R said...

Boy in the Pyjama... i'm confused. There IS a photo of Hilary Swank in my predictions. I'm not sure what you mean.

Anyway... it was my understanding that the studio has confirmed that Helen Mirren is "lead" in The Last Station (but of course these things can change)

as for Streep being a lock and others not. This goes back to my rule that you can't be a lock until the film has opened. Because you are not even eligible for Oscar consideration unless your movie has played for a week in theaters which most of the movies being discussed haven't.

As for A SERIOUS MAN. I stand by my doubts. The Coen Bros have done well with Oscar no question. But they're generally only nominated when their film is a Best Picture player (contrary to popular belief -- the O Brother nomination being the exception to the rule) and I keep hearing that A SERIOUS MAN is less accessible than some previous work. We'll see. I should see it. hate that i've been so busy.

Styx said...

Why is Christoph Waltz in the second slot when he's the only one in green ("lock") position? Has something changed with his chances?

I think that "Bright Star" will be all but forgotten by nominations time, so no Cornish, Schneider, or Campion. "The Hurt Locker" will have an uphill battle too.

The "Nine" ladies should pull through for nominations. I think that'll be more enticing to nominate any from that cast (Kidman, Cotillard, Dench, Cruz, Hudson) over Anna Kendrick and Vera Farmiga.

So Hal Holbrook is really good in "That Evening Sun"? That's great news. He should have won for "Into the Wild".

Asokan said...

you switched the pictures of Jane Campion and Rob Marshall in the directors lineup... funny, if it was intended as a joke, they do look alike :-D

Bill_the_Bear said...

Nat, in the Best Picture predictions, you've transposed the blurbs for "Up" and "The Lovely Bones."

I recently read "Playing the Enemy," the book on which "Invictus" is based...and if the movie is half as good as the book, I could see it getting a BP nom and a nom for Morgan Freeman at least. (Not sure how well Matt Damon can play an Afrikaaner, though.)

For Best Actor, I still think that Joaquin Phoenix deserves a nomination for "Two Lovers." He won't get it, of course...spring opening plus no campaigning assures that. (Nat, did you ever see the movie?)

NATHANIEL R said...

Styx ... it's because of my rule with "no locks until the film opens". And Christoph's is the only film to have opened. But I have a hard time seeing him winning. yet.

Cheri said...

Meryl Streep all the way! What a role she played!

amir_uk said...

Styx - yes, totally, Hal Holbrook should've won for Into the Wild. I'm so glad to hear this performance is a stunner. Here's hoping he'll have another shot...

Would be amazing if Plummer and Firth were to join him in Best Actor, even if it was just for the first nom/career recognition factor for the both of them.

Meryl completely and absolutely deserves a nom this year. And I'd say a win for her would be very sweet. Not only is it time for her again, but her previous two wins were for dramas, and Julia Child is one of her very best. (I'd rate it in her top 3 along with those 2 other Oscared turns of hers. And wouldn't it be great that her Oscars align with all of her best work - quite the unusual scenario.) She created one of the most joyous characters in recent memory. Pure joy. You don't see that too often.

And Adri, I love what you wrote about Melanie Laurent. And wholeheartedly agree with you. My favourite supporting actress of the year so far too. Wonderful, vibrant, touching, heartstopping, surprising, enigmatic, subtle work.

amir_uk said...

Also, while I haven't seen Julianne Moore or Mo'Nique's films yet (two weeks to go, two weeks to go, deep breath...) I do hope Juli smacks Mo down for that golden boy. So what if I'm in a career recognition kind of mood this year! Oscarez-Moore s.v.p!

marshall1 said...

Hi Nat,

some happy news for you? in the website incontention, they are not putting Swank for Amelia.....I think.....
I've just saw Julie and Julia, I wish they have put Streep in supporting. She is soooo good in the role. So much joy and radiance (poor Amy Adams stuck with Kate Gosselin's character....). It is not deep, but I would not hesitate to give her the award.
I actually only think Mulligan and maybe Sibide are locks. What do you think if the lead actress in "the Maid" is pushed hard? Maybe she can sneek in like Cotillard (of course she has the glamour factor)?

DJ said...

I haven't seen Up in the Air.. but I have such a big gripe with George Clooney. If the man does anything of relative prestige (the film, not his performance), then he's automatically nominated. The man can do mediocre work, but somehow has managed to ingratiate himself so far up everyone's you-know-what, that they don't care about how good his performances are. UGH.

I think DDL is almost certain to get a nomination. It's a musical for goodness sake's. And no "Nine" acting predictions at all is a little weird.

NATHANIEL R said...

marshall1. that surprises me. In Contention has been pushing Amelia hard all year... like so hard I've wondered if they helped produce the film ;) I wonder if Kris finally saw it then and didn't like it?

amir_uk wow... you really think those are Streep's 3 best? Cuz I don't at all. Though obviously the first two were Oscar worthy. I just don't think they're necessarily her two best.

DJ since when do men in musicals get easy nominations? think about it. it's not that common. i know it seems like awards bodies love musicals but it's not really the case in terms of acting (unless you're a woman) or unless you're talking about the Golden Globes

marshall1 said...

Here you go Nat,

maybe i've read it wrong?

http://incontention.com/?p=14922#more-14922

gabrieloak said...

Whoever said Julienne Moore will not be nominated for supporting for A Single Man is out of his/her mind. She will be nominated because she stands out in every scene she's in. And I think Tom Ford will be nominated for director too. Along with the Danish woman who directed An Education and whose name I can't spell.

Anonymous said...

in my opinion meryl streep's best nominated (or soon to be nominated) performances in order

1. Sophie's Choice
2. A Cry in the Dark
3. Silkwood
4. Julie and Julia
5. Out of Africa
6. Kramer vs. Kramer
7. The Bridges of Madison County
8. Adaptation
9. The Devil Wears Prada
10. The French Lietenant's Woman
11. The Deer Hunter
12. Ironweed
13. Postcards From the Edge
14. One True Thing
15. Music of the Heart
16. Doubt

Jorge Rodrigues said...

Postcards and Ironweed so low? And Bridges and Out of Africa so high? :)

Jorge Rodrigues said...

Well, excellent predictions, I agree with many of your choices, just in the Best Actor, Best Director and Best Picture I have some differences.


- I still can't give in to the fact that Up in the Air will be a major player this awards season

- I still can't believe the Coen Bros' A Serious Man isn't getting more traction

- I still can't believe Daniel Day-Lewis will get shifted in such an underachieving year for leading men. And I bet that if they have to choose between Holbrook or Day-Lewis, the latter will win just because he looks so much better in a tux xD

- I truly believe The Lovely Bones will still be the major awards magnet this season

- I can't imagine that Best Actor line-up without Viggo Mortensen

- I still can't imagine that there won't be any lady nominated from Nine and two ladies from Up in the Air

- I also can't resume the Best Actress category to a showdown between Streep and Mulligan (I love Streep but I no longer think she'll win for Julie and Julia) and I do think Ronan is in. And I wouldn't disrespect Michelle Monaghan because I never saw the possibility of Melissa Leo getting nominated (especially over critics' darling Hawkins and international movie star Scott-Thomas) and look how well that turned out


- Best Director is shaping to be a huge mess. My guess is the Academy will go for the men and leave the women out (what a surprise!). So Daniels, Jackson, Eastwood, Marshall and here lies my doubt: Reitman, Ford, Malick or Coen Bros.? It will depend on the power of their respective films


- I still can't assume that Up! is a great possibility for Best Picture. I believe AMPAS changed the number of nominees because of the growing concern on their overall choices and not at all because of Wall-E's snub. So I don't believe 10 nominees will give a very well-crafted animated movie a chance at a nomination


- And I'd only change Damon for Smith-McPhee (if Viggo is nominated) or Richard Kind (if A Serious Man is a serious player) in your Sup. Actor line-up


So... My predictions:

ACTOR
Mortensen (Clooney
Day-Lewis
Firth
Plummer
Freeman

ACTRESS
Sidibe Streep
Mulligan
Ronan
Mirren (Bening if film released)

SUP. ACTOR
McAvoy
Tucci
Molina
Smith Mc-Phee (Kind)
Waltz

SUP. ACTRESS
Moore
Cotillard
Mo'Nique
Weisz
Dench (Farmiga)

DIRECTOR
Marshall
Jackson
Eastwood
Daniels
Reitman (Coen Bros.)

PICTURE
Up in the Air
Precious
An Education
The Lovely Bones
Invictus
Nine
The Hurt Locker
Bright Star
The Last Station
The Tree of Life

Mike said...

I think if Julianne Moore gets nominated, she could be a serious contender to win. Everyone's all about Mo'nique right now, but her bad press for her absence on the campaign trail combined with not being regarded as a serious actress could hurt her. On the contrary, Julianne is widely considered way overdue, and Academy voters must be aware of that.

brandz said...

I think it's going to be Stanley Tucci's year this year. With 2 strong performances, one of them is bound to win (I think it will be for Julie & Julia). I also think Meryl Streep will win for the same picture, as the joyous Julia Child. What a performance! I know the movie was light, but the performance was perfect.

Glenn Dunks said...

"but her bad press for her absence on the campaign trail"

Let us remind ourselves that she didn't attend some FILM FESTIVALS! They don't need her to sell Precious to freakin' Cannes. I'm sure when it comes around to the film's ACTUAL AMERICAN RELEASE and the actual Oscar season that she'll gladly support the film.

adam k. said...

I still think Mo'Nique will win - Julianne has lost this category to first-timers before - but the nom for Juli seems like a good bet. Especially now that everyone's claiming Firth to be a lock.

Who do we think are the golden globe nominees for actor and actress? This is always fun, and easier, this time of year:

George Clooney
Matt Damon
Daniel Day-Lewis
Robert Downey Jr.?
Joseph Gordon-Levitt?

That lineup would be sweet.

Meryl Streep!
Amy Adams? (for either of her movies)
Michelle Pfeiffer
Ellen Page?
Zooey Deschanel?
Marion Cotillard?

Is Meryl allowed to be nominated twice here?

adam k. said...

Best comedy?

NINE
UP IN THE AIR
JULIE & JULIA
500 DAYS of SUMMER?
IT'S COMPLICATED?
WHIP IT?
THE HANGOVER?

Whip It is probably a pipe dream, but it soooo deserves it...

amir_uk said...

Hey Nathaniel, re: Meryl, yeah, I really do think Sophie's Choice, Kramer vs. Kramer and Julie & Julia are probably her best.

Of course, there are a myriad other highlights in that filmography - for me, going backwards: Doubt; Angels in America; Adaptation; The Bridges of Madison County; Postcards from the Edge; Silkwood; Manhattan - but I think those three top them all.

Caveat: I've yet to see A Cry in the Dark (Evil Angels), Heartburn, or The French Lieutenant's Woman - so they could be better?... Though I guess it's all a matter of personal taste...

amir_uk said...

And, Adam, I hope you're right and that (500) Days of Summer does well with the Globes. A cinematography and screenplay noms at the Oscars would be so sweet, but I know that's not going to happen.

amir_uk said...

*Cinematography nomination would be especially great as I'm sure that was the work of Nestor Almendros, back from the dead and working under a pseudonym.

Styx said...

Styx ... it's because of my rule with "no locks until the film opens". And Christoph's is the only film to have opened. But I have a hard time seeing him winning. yet.

Thanks for the answer. I still think that if Waltz is your only "green" slot, then he should be first instead of Alfred Molina. But they're your predictions not mine. I have no problems saying that Waltz is still the supporting actor frontrunner, but no Jeff Bridges at least in the top ten? I'm really hoping that Anthony Mackie can pull through too, but he'll sadly fall short too.

Paul Outlaw said...

RE: Globes (heheh)

Actress/Drama: Emily Blunt, Helen Mirren, Carey Mulligan, Hilary Swank, Audrey Tatou

Actress/Musical-Comedy: Marion Cotillard, Zooey Deschanel, Ellen Page, Meryl Streep, Renée Zellweger

Actor/Drama: Robert De Niro, Robert Downey, Jr., Colin Firth, Morgan Freeman, Christopher Plummer

Actor/Musical-Comedy: Jim Carrey, George Clooney, Daniel Day-Lewis, Joseph Gordon-Levitt, Steve Martin

Drama: Coco Before Chanel, An Education, Inglourious Basterds, The Lovely Bones, Precious

Musical-Comedy: (500) Days of Summer, It's Complicated, Julie and Julia, Nine, Up in the Air

Miss Golden Globe: Zelda Williams

Robert said...

I sure hope they push Cotillard as lead. One, it's a valid argument for a not quite supporting or leading role. Two, she's better here than she was in La Vie en Rose. Three, her two songs are stunning, filled with great visuals that will make great campaign advertisements. Four, it gives the other possibilities - Cruz, Dench, and Hudson - a stronger chance to be nominated. Five, did I mention she really deserves a nomination for this film? Just wanted to reiterate that one.

And I'll go out and say there is no way DDL doesn't get nominated here. There is nothing soft about Nine, even if it's a filed down version of a stage musical with bite.

Anonymous said...

Jeez...Lovely Bones drops from #1 to #9?!?

...in regards to the trailer, her being dead, her being raped and murdered, and that her killer is the neighbor are all revealed within like the first 2 pages.

I'm sure they wish they could cook up a trailer that tells the audience little about the film but unfortunately for them...the film centers around the brutal murder of a child...so the subject matter kinda forces them to let the audiences know what they're in for...

just my 2 cents..., but whatever we'll know in december.

NATHANIEL R said...

anon 9:04 i'm not objecting to the setup in the trailer... 'the day that i was murdered' and all of htat. it's that they have all of that, PLUS the family's reaction. PLUS the plot of the family realizing who did the murder (not just us) PLUS the action of the girl sneaking into the house. PLUS the villain's reaction. PLUS Sammon's reactions in heaven. Honestly it feels like thye put in 1 second from each of the movie's 120 minutes.

the world would be a better place if trailers refused to show anything past the first two reels ;)

Anonymous said...

I'm just saying...a story like this seems like it'd be kinda a nightmare to try to market...like i cant even imagine how they'd cut up a 30 second TV Spot for this.

...So i just dont think the way they cut up the trailer indicates they're not confident in the film. You dont see the film in 2008...delay it 9 months from March to December... if you're not confident with it. But i understand it falling from #1...like its still 2 months away from premiering, obviously you have to find a reason to get it outta that spot or else it'll just sit there, but dropping to #9 was suprising.

danielson said...

I just found out that Within The Whirlwind has already played one screening in Europe with another soon in Boston. If it even gets a halfway decent response, then it'll get a distributor and Watson WILL be back in the discussion.

NATHANIEL R said...

danielson... i would love to see that picture but even if it finds a distributor i think it would be altogether shocking if they went for 2009 at this point. There's just no time to plan a release. I think we just had our last gasp of sudden 2009 openings with That Evening Sun, A Single Man and The Last Station announcements.

the only movie i still vaguely have hopes for a sudden release is MOTHER AND CHILD but that's probably also foolish. Let's just say 2010 Bening vs. Watson ;)

Anonymous said...

Agustin
" I still think Streep won't get to a nomination "

I'm sad.
I really hope Meryl Streep wins

Anonymous said...

Agustin
"I still think Streep won't get to a nomination"

I really hope Meryl Streep wins her third Oscar

VonCastle said...

Meryl Meryl Meryl - 3rd win overdue and completely deserved on the basis of the specfic performance.
Oscar starts to loose credentials when one thinks she has as many as the Swank (who is no Swan).
The Queen claims the throne back.