Sunday, January 17, 2010

Golden Globe Predictions & BFCA Fashions

I'm doubling up because aren't predictions and fashion rundowns fall on the same level of disposable fun. They're both instantly irrelevant pleasures: the reality of the winners will render predictions obsolete in mere hours, and tonight red carpet's will be totally "in the now" as opposed to 'soooooo two days ago!'. Plus, I'm scrubbing the apartment for a Golden Globes party tonight and time is short. Are you hosting a party or attending one?

Golden Globe Predictions
Drama: Up in the Air (?????)
Director: Kathryn Bigelow, The Sexy Locker
I know that people have stopped doubting The Hurt Locker as a potential Oscar Best Picture winner but for whatever reason I still can't buy it as a big winner there or especially here. Even though I love it. It's too small and tightly wound when awards bodies generally prefer big and roomy (i.e. bloated with hot air). Then again, nothing else really feels like a slam dunk. The only win that would surprise is Precious. I think Avatar, Basterds and The Sexy Locker -- yeah, I renamed it. Deal -- are all more than robust possibilities. If there's ever going to be another tie at the Globes wouldn't it be great fun, if it was tonight?

  • BFCA Best Dressed
    Zoe Saldana reminded that she wasn't uptight Lt. Uhura in Star Trek or nature girl Neytiri in Avatar, but a rising movie starlet. She was one of the only stars to take a fashion risk. It's fun, flirty and just weird enough (is that plastic wrap?) to be memorable. Winning always looks good on people but at least Sandra Bullock's basic black had some fun detailing (patterns, fringe). Diane Kruger isn't exactly a movie star (yet) but she plays on on the movie screen. And almost played one on the red carpet, too. All this needed was better choices in hair and makeup to really sell the glamour.

Comedy: (500) Days of Summer
Animated Film: Up
Actress (Drama): Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
Actress (Comedy): Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia
I still think the Oscar will end the season in Meryl's hands on account of momentum (27 years of it... but especially the past 3) but the media will definitely try and tip the scales towards Bullock, because that's how they do. Once you're this far into the season the performances matter far less than the stardom and the campaign. The performances and films become abstractions. Essentially they're the limos which have driven to the curb of awards season, and dumped the star on the red carpet. The rest is up to them. This is a long way of saying that usually when the media gets too involved [sigh. Crash over Brokeback] they don't use their powers for good... they just use them to create drama where there doesn't need to be any. They have to sell papers, magazines and page views. I enjoy Sandra Bullock, I really do. But she doesn't need to be an Oscar winner, for a charming but inconsequential performance. The Blind Side has been more than rewarding enough for her at this point.

Actor (Drama): Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
Actor (Comedy): Joseph Gordon-Levitt, (500) Days of Summer
Ever since they decided to release Crazy Heart, Bridges was finally going to win his Oscar. So why not all the other prizes, too? As for JGL. Why not? it's a weird category. Could be anyone and if any awards body is least resistant to young thespians, it's the Globes. I'm just going for broke.

Supporting Actor:
Woody Harrelson, The Messenger
Supporting Actress: Mo'Nique, Precious
I keep making this Harrelson prediction and it keeps biting me in the ass. Waltz may be a true sweeper but I keep thinking that somebody somewhere is going to tilt for Hollywood stardom and maybe it'll be the Globes who are far more likely to surprise in their acting categories than other awards shows are. In fact, I don't really think Mo'Nique is safe either. If the Globes want some of their rising starlet flashiness, they could easily crown Anna Kendrick.

  • BFCA Boredom
    Why did everyone play it so safe fashion wise. It was a night of seeing stars wear things we've seen them wear before (Emily Blunt loves the silvery sleek, Marion Cotillard loves the mermaid dresses) or basic white, black and red (Heather Graham, lovely as always). Of these dresses, Julianne Moore's is the most risky but its sculptural beauty only worked from certain angles. Botched Opportunity: Kristen Bell was at a movie star event and should've been trying to look like a movie star rather than a TV star since she's trying to make the transition.

Foreign Film: A Prophet (France)
Screenplay: Up in the Air
Song: "Winter" Brothers
TV Drama: Mad Men; Actor: Jon Hamm, Mad Men; Actress: Anna Paquin, True Blood
TV Mini: Grey Gardens; Actor: Brendan Gleeson, Into the Storm; Actress: Drew Barrymore, Grey Gardens
TV Comedy: Glee; Actor: Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock; Actress: Courtney Cox, Cougar Town
TV Supporting Actor: Neil Patrick Harris, How I Met Your Mother; Supporting Actress: Jane Lynch, Glee

  • BFCA - Worst Dressed
    Jena Malone & Carey Mulligan need several big meals before the Oscars. Slimming black when you need to eat might not be the best idea. The fussy flourishes don't help much. I still don't understand what Saoirse Ronan was wearing but at least she provided some of the only color of the evening (that wasn't red). Note to Abbie Cornish and her stylist: When someone is not nominated but they are invited anyway (presumably as "forgive us!", the best revenge is to look sensational and hit the best dressed list, not show up looking like you're attending a boring business event... even if that's exactly what it is.

The Golden Globe predictions above are not preferences though in several cases they overlap. On the TV front, since I rarely talk about it, I'm really hoping for a surprise win for January Jones in Mad Men (who doesn't get enough credit for that difficult-to-play character). And much as I delight in Glee I really think Modern Family absolutely deserves Best Comedy. I almost can't believe what an exquisite comic jewel it is week after week. It's got everything: brilliant writing, superb comic timing and great laughs per minute ratio.

Who are you rooting for tonight at the Golden Globes? What do you expect to see happen?


Ryan T. said...

I haven't posted my predictions yet on my blog. I will in about an hour or two. And looking over your list, most of our predictions are quite different! But neither here nor there.

What I *want* to happen would be for Meryl Streep, Joseph Gordon-Levitt, Jane Lynch, and Neil Patrick Harris to win. Anything else can happen for any of the other awards as far as I'm concerned. Oddly enough I am also predicting those three to win so I hope I don't jinx them.

adam k. said...

OMG I love Emily Blunt's weird metallic thing. She looks like the female robot from Metropolis.

I'm predicting JGL too. I actually kinda really think he'll get it. But I'm sticking with Nine for best musical. It was a good film, whether the critics thought so or not, and I don't think the HFPA will dump it just because it hasn't done well. They probably did most of their voting a long time ago anyway. Plus, the opposing votes will just be too dispersed to throw the win to something else.

M2 said...

I want Julianne Moore to pull a massive upset in Supporting Actress. I loved the performance, and it would be nice to see her finally get something tangible in recognition of her enormous talent.

I agree though that Kendrick is far likelier to derail Mo'Nique if it were to happen, which boggles the mind (I disliked the performance, and she's not even the best supporting actress in her film).

Timothy Griffiths said...

Here are mine, as of now (subject to change before the ceremony). God, it's really almost impossible to predict some of these this year. I have no idea what to put for best actor, comedy. My boyfriend and I have a bet riding on this, but we're not sure what yet... a bottle of cheap wine? A foot massage? Another season of Roseanne? Oh, the possibilities!

Best Picture, Drama: The Hurt Locker
Best Picture, Comedy: Nine
Best Director: James Cameron
Best Actress, Drama: Sandra Bullock
Best Actor, Drama: Jeff Bridges
Best Actress, Comedy: Meryl Streep (For Julie and Julia)
Best Actor, Comedy: Matt Damon
Best Supporting Actress: Mo'nique
Best Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz
Best Animated Feature: Up
Best Foreign Film: Broken Embraces
Best Screenplay: Quentin Tarantino
Best Original Score: Up
Best Original Song: "The Weary Kind" from Crazy Heart

Jim T said...

I really like Kruger's dress but how is it more interesting than some of your Boredom listed dresses? Isn't it too Knightley in Atonement?

And I like it that Saoirse remembered that she is a kid and she should have fun!

Jude said...

I think Avatar can take Best Picture. The Globes certainly do love their big-budget epics.

Alex said...

I think the fact that "Dreamgirls" beat "Little Miss Sunshine" and "Evita" beat "Fargo" are both indicators that "Nine" will probably top "(500) Days of Summer", though it will be another instance that a musical won over a more deserving comedy. They're better with acting categories (minus the "WTF? MADONNA?" moment) so I think JGL still takes it.

Right now nothing would make me happier than surprises in both Supporting categories. We all love Christoph Waltz and Mo'Nique and we all know they'll win Oscars, but it'd be nice to see a curveball thrown at them. I just want to see Vera Farmiga and Stanley Tucci (I'll pretend it's for "Julie & Julia") holding trophies. It'd make the awards race so much more interesting. I still think Vera wins at SAG (a la Paul Giamatti's upset in 2005 over the seemingly unstoppable Clooney).

Ashley said...

Mo'nique is GOING to win the Golden Globe. I just can't see them not giving her the globe. I think Sandra and Meryl are locks as well. I hope Drew Barrymore wins, but I fear that Jessica Lange may steal it. Hopefully, the globes won't be a Mad Men/30 Rock night. It would be nice if The Office or Damages won something.

Steolicious said...

These are my predictions:

I hope for Mulligan, Bridges, Cotillard and Inglorious Basterds.

Anonymous said...

Meryl's dress at the critics choice awards was just AWFUL. She should be on your "Worst Dressed List". But she's Meryl Streep, and we are supossed to love her... Disgusting. Put her on the LIST!!!

med said...

Thanks Nathaniel for you level headed analysis of the BA race. I too agree the Oscar will end up in the hands of Meryl at the end of the day but the media has sure turned it into the Bullock express to Oscar gold...How sad it would be to give the gold to Bullock's awful performance in the BS. The academy would never live it down. So, a note to AMPAS - and the Oscar goes to Meryl Streep ALREADY!

Anonymous said...

Aw. No extra page for the Globes this year? :(

But you're still gonna do pages for the Oscars, yes? *panics*

NoNo said...

I really like your fashion choices although I would've added Meryl to the boring list. I'm tired of those damn shirt/skirt dresses! She needs to give Damn Mirren a call on how to look "woman of a certain age" sexy.

You're so right about Kruger, It's like she stopped trying from the neck up.

I know women directors don't care as much as actresses but I really would like Bigelow to pull out all the stops fashion wise. Now's your time to shine!

magicub said...

WTF, Saoirse Ronan is trying to look like Jodie Foster on Taxi Driver?

Arlo said...

Word on the street is Avatar is going to win, or so I've read on a few sites. Not sure how anyone could possibly know that but I think it is quite likely here.

Ms. Berkowitz said...

I want GABBY to win something substantial for god sake! She was soooo good and she's being beat obviously lesser performances. Carey isn't even getting anything. Fuck fairness, its non-existant. Well, that's my small rant.

Honestly, what's with Christoph Waltz? I really wanted to be impressed with his performance after seeing him sweep almost everything but it just seemed ordinary. He was like a devilishly charming villain, ive seen that in many cartoons and movies. Jeeez, I really want him to lose. But then again, his category seems weak as fuck. His competition is in small movies the public hasnt even heard of. Sad. *moment of silence*

And finally, I'm thinking The Hangover should win. I thought it was okay, personally, it felt like a rip-off from a Apatow movie but look at its accomplishments. Its box-office is absolutely amazing and hear it being talked about more than Avatar(by people) and many claim its one of the funniest movie they've seen in awhile. (500) days of summer was good but The Hangover will be remembered, actually, it might become a classic.

P.S. Let's take an even longer moment of silence for Whip it.

Jim T said...

I have a feeling that Best Director will be a tie. Bigelow and Cameron! Do they allow ties?

Lara said...

Wow! I'm beaming right now about that comment du jour! Thank you!
I'm guessing Kathryn Bigelow for Best Director but don't think The Sexy Locker will win Best Picture tonight. I think that will be Avatar.

Anonymous said...

What's the problem with Madonna's winning? she was fantastic in EVITA. reviews were good, box office idem, she's a was not so strange Globes selected her as Best Actress in the category. Oscar race should have had more fun if the Academy wouldn't been so snobbish that year!!!


Jill said...

The most boring thing about both GG and the Emmys is the way they pick a single show and then reward it year after year after year. I'm sorry, but Jon Hamm does nothing for me. Oh. He's a stoic 1960's man and we're supposed to call that "deep". If Michael C. Hall and John Lithgow don't win for "Dexter" this year, there is no God.

Jose said...

The movie categories bore me a bit this year so I'm hoping January Jones and Drew Barrymore "upset" and get the Globe instead of Glenn Close and Jessica Lange.
They both, but especially Jones, make their brilliance seem so effortless.
Oh and I have a crush on the Best Foreign Lnaguage Film category. I sob at the thought of how AMPAS will mess up theirs in a few weeks.

OtherRobert said...

The media better not push Sandra Bullock to an Oscar. Can't they push something great, like Gabby in Precious, rather than use their powers for the advancement of mediocrity? Not that I mind Meryl Streep winning another Oscar. If she does, maybe they'll stop making her a default nominee and give someone else a shot.

Robert said...

I really, really hope that Jane Lynch wins for Glee. Her comic timing is impeccable and her lines make me forgive the rest of the many, many problems with that show.

I also want Modern Family to win Best Comedy!!!

And 500 Days of Summer...though I have a feeling Nine might win, just because the Globes love musicals.

Andrew R. said...

I tsk-tsk at your Best Supporting Actor choice-Waltz is going to win again. And no, Precious would not suprise if it won Best Drama. It's more likely to win then Basterds and Avatar. The Globes may be moronic (I don't watch them) but still.

LOCKS: Best Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Animated

Anonymous said...
This is why Tilda Swinton should get another oscar!!!!


anon 12:57 -- didn't have time for the Globe pages :(

but the oscar pages have been up since april, silly


Stella said...

Matt Damon will win for the Informant. And I just don't see Up in the Air winning Best Drama.

Walter L. Hollmann said...

I loved Saoirse's outfit. Just adored it. But I found your GOlden Girls comparison on the other post hilarious!

I'm hosting a party, too! And I, too, am predicting JGL for the win, mostly because I just can't see anyone else getting it, but also because COME ON!

Timothy Griffiths said...

I amended mine with what I also want to win:


Best Picture, Drama: Up In The Air
WANT TO WIN: Inglourious Basterds
Best Picture, Comedy: Nine
WANT TO WIN: 500 Days of Summer
Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow
WANT TO WIN: Quentin Tarantino
Best Actress, Drama: Sandra Bullock
WANT TO WIN: Gabourey Sidibe
Best Actor, Drama: Jeff Bridges
Best Actress, Comedy: Meryl Streep (For Julie and Julia)
Best Actor, Comedy: Matt Damon
WANT TO WIN: Michael Stuhlbarg (or JGL)
Best Supporting Actress: Mo'nique
WANT TO WIN: Tie: Anna Kendrick & Mo'nique
Best Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz
Best Animated Feature: Up
WANT TO WIN: Tie: Up & Fantastic Mr. Fox
Best Foreign Film: Broken Embraces
Best Screenplay: Quentin Tarantino
Best Original Score: Up
WANT TO WIN: Same (/w huge props to WTWTA)
Best Original Song: "The Weary Kind" from Crazy Heart
WANT TO WIN: They all suck.

Richter Scale said...

Nat, I'm so happy you love Modern Family as well. It is a truly amazing show (even though I'm also a huge Glee fan, I can't stop listening to their music and tracking down original renditions to compare). My favorite thing about Modern Family, and probably the reason it sadly didn't get any acting nods, is that it has an amazing ensemble. Most comedies, there's one or two actors who always steal the show, but the Modern Family ensemble work wonders together, and they all make me laugh week after week. My favorites are probably Ty Burrell and Eric Stonestreet, but they all rock together (I was sold as soon as I saw Cameron introduce Lily to the family to Circle of Life, holding her up as if she were Simba, good times!). I really want them to win best Ensemble in a Comedy Series at the SAGs (of course, that's another award's show coming up).

nickis_movies said...

I agree with the worst dressed , all gorgeous girls who could have done a lot more with their looks I agree with @adam k. , Emily Blunt looked amazing.

I did a Golden Globe predictions, but now I found it was too soon to do so. I will learn for the Oscars!

I think with the Golden Globes is that a lot of the time we are flying blind, but the Oscars are easier to pick.

Steven said...

I'm totally rooting for Modern Family! While Glee is super fun, Modern Family is flawlessly hilarious and brilliantly acted and written. That's the one SAG Award I'm truly rooting for, Modern Family for Best Ensemble.


Anonymous said...

I guess The Office and Steve Carrell will simply never win anything...

SamIAm said...

For me, "Julie & Julia" was as inconsequential as "The Blind Side", so I'll be disappointed with this year's winner either way. Carey Mulligan is the one who should be sweeping this damn season, and she doesn't have a prayer now. I don't even think the BAFTA is safe for her anymore.

Your TV predictions were really off-the-mark. And you're still trying to make Woody Harrelson happen (in my best Regina George voice)? It's Christoph Waltz's from here on out to Oscar.