Speaking of pick-me-ups...
This T to your left, is my favorite piece of swag for precursor season thus far. They passed some law that bloggers are supposed to tell you what gifts they get, right? It's really not complicated in my case. I get what other members of certain critics groups get (I'm a member of the BFCA): some screeners, the occassional film book, random infrequent goodies such as this. It's a little hard to see but basically it's a Jacki Weaver (Animal Kingdom) bust with her sure-to-become classic line "You've done some bad things, sweetie." scrawled under her face.
The Supporting Actress Race is, as you've presumably surmised (being the smarty that you are) unpredictable at the moment. Almost everyone who people think might be in the running is an uncertainty.
The obstacles to certainty
- Helena Bonham Carter (The King's Speech) AMPAS has resisted all but one of her worthy perfs. And even that one time (The Wings of the Dove) when she absolutely deserved the actual win, she lost.
- Dianne Wiest (Rabbit Hole) has a small film emerging in the annual December glut.
- Miranda Richardson (Made in Dagenham) is fun but the role is kind of easy, if you will. If they're in the mood to hand her a career acknowledgement, it's a go but otherwise...
- Jacki Weaver (Animal Kingdom). Hollywood doesn't know her and might not see her film.
- Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit). The actors branch is, for whatever reason, semi-resistant to Coen Bros pictures.
- Melissa Leo & Amy Adams (The Fighter) are in the same film that few have yet seen.
- Sissy Spacek (Get Low) is in a film where the men get almost all the attention.
- Barbra Hershey & Mila Kunis (Black Swan) are in a film that might be too outre for the acting branch and one in which the lead actress is hogging all the attention anyway. Weirder still: though Hershey and Portman are the ones with the nominatable roles, Kunis is the only one to win anything thus far (Venice by way of Quentin Tarantino).
- Kristin Scott Thomas (Nowhere Boy) has the Bonham Carter problem, doesn't she?
- Saoirse Ronan (The Way Back) has a small film with a huge cast in the annual December glut.
- Rosamund Pike (Barney's Version & Made in Dagenham) is quite a good actress but she never seems to generate buzz. Incidentally, she gets two of the very best moments in Made in Dagenham but still people aren't talking about her and you only hear "Miranda & Sally".
- Dale Dickey (Winter's Bone) is in a small film where the lead actress hogs the attention.
- Marion Cotillard (Inception) is in a movie that's not exactly an "actor's movie"
- Loretta, Whoopi, Janet, Kerry, Thandie, Phylicia, Anika, Macy, etc... (For Colored Girls) They have the internal competition problem times infinity. For any traction whatsoever one or two of them will have to steal the entire show.
Incidentally, at least one film writer wants Annette Bening to move to supporting for The Kids Are All Right. While it's true that she could probably win the category with ease were she to be nominated there, I doubt the Academy would buy the classification. For one thing, she's top billed, which has not been the case in other instances where they've demoted a co-lead to supporting. And they don't always buy the ridiculous re-classifications, anyway. I mean, trying to sell The Bening as supporting Julianne Moore would as foolish as trying to sell the idea that Jamie Foxx was supporting Tom Cruise in Collat--- oh f***, never mind.
Oscar Prediction Index