Wednesday, October 26, 2005

Can't. Stop. Tinkering. Must. Turn. Off. Computer.

Minor Oscar Updates in the major categories to reflect very early precursor notices (see previous post) such as Gotham, British Independent, and Hollywood Festival kudos. Plus new poster images for Munich (serious, contemplative teaser) and The New World (romantic epic style). Must. Stop. Now. Next major prediction alteration on November 7th after Jarhead and Chicken Little open.

If the year ended today I think our best pic nominees would be some combo of these six -minus one: Capote, Cinderella Man, Crash, Constant Gardener, Goodnight and Good Luck and A History of Violence. But the year does not end today.

16 comments:

JavierAG said...

No it doesn't, but I'm still hoping for "History" and "Good Night and Good Luck". Oh and "The Constant Gardener" too because I've talked to its photographer on numerous occasions. He's brilliant.

david m said...

What is happening with The White Countess???

It had a premiere Oct. 18 at the Academy's theatre in Beverly Hills and was also screened last night at ShowEast in Orlando.

But the net is silent. Not a peep!!!

Is it a bomb?

Have you heard any feedback at all?

JavierAG said...

Nat, great to see "Grizzly Man" in A- territory. This is actually "Best Documentary" of the decade for me so far. So brilliant...

JavierAG said...

Oy... A D+ for "North Country". Honestly I saw that coming... it just looks uninteresting and made-for-TV from afar.

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adam k. said...

Hmm... Just watched the Breakfast on Pluto and Transamerica trailers. Transamerica looks really fun... but not really oscary. But then again, neither did Monster. Still, with her Emmy win, Huffman could be on the path to a Helen Hunt-like takeover of hollywood next year. Don't know what to think about that movie yet. Both that and BoP look very IFPable, though. I think both stars will be seeing Spirit noms for sure.
The other big question mark is Freedomland... I could still see Julianne being noticed for this, but I dunno... she looks really good, just not surrounded by a very good movie. If only Michael Winterbottom had stayed on.
Big question marks... don't know what to think...
might the globes put Huffman in comedy even if she wants the drama nod? I think they ultimately make their own decisions about category. I think Big Fish wanted drama, but wound up in comedy. I hope that's what happens with Felicity.

adam k. said...

I think the globe comedy actress nominees, for the record, will be:
Joan Allen
Judi Dench
Diane Keaton
Meryl Streep
Reese Witherspoon

But I keep thinking Keaton won't stand out enough from the crowd for a lead notice... I feel like Family Stone might be one of those movies that just gets the GGC best pic nod and nothing else... maybe screenplay. I feel like she might be replaced by Huffman or Thurman.

adam k. said...

This is totally random, and has nothing to do with anything, really (and is my 3rd post in a row!), but isn't it incredible when you think about it that Uma Thurman missed out on an oscar nod twice in a row in favor of forgein youngsters in their film debuts? I mean, for Christ's sake... a 13-year-old Maori girl in her first film, and a 23-year-old Colombian, in tiny little films that made no money? Over a movie star in her prime, in a big hit film. Twice. It's just rather bizarre. You really can't say they're that biased against younger actresses, or foreigners. Their genre bias runs much deeper. ANYone who gets good reviews for headlining a heartwarming drama must be considered a contender, always.

JavierAG said...

"Maria Full of Grace" isn't very heartwarming, is it? ;)

But yeah, what they did with Uma was unforgivable. She'll still get a third consecutive acting nod at the Globes this year.

Anonymous said...

It'll actually be her fourth consecutive nod. Her run began with her win for the TV movie, "Hysterical Blindness." Wierd how the Emmys didn't even nominated her, when the nominated her two co-stars.

adam k. said...

Well, maybe not totally heartwarming (Maria) but it's that kind of traditional dramatic arc with a very sympathetic character, you know? That means everything to the academy.

And yeah, with Uma getting the globe nods too, when her competitors didn't, and still missing out. It's so ridiculous. She WILL get at least one nod this year to add to her run, as well she should. Go Uma! This is your moment, live it up.

Kris said...

You really might want to consider tapering the Jarhead love.

NATHANIEL R said...

maybe but i'll wait to see it. i only update my oscar predictions once a month (until usually around late November)

Anonymous said...

Nathaniel, glad to see you're not knuckling under all the anti-Jarhead hysteria at Oscarwatch.

There are also some very good reviews out there.

I too will wait and see.

NATHANIEL R said...

the thing with jarhead is just because Kris and David don't like it... that does not mean that everyone won't like it. You don't know about general consensus till closer to release. And then you don't know audience response. If it's a huge hit that will also make a difference.

we shall see. it might not be for oscar. but it sure looks good, trailer-wise.

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