Saturday, October 29, 2005

Weird Oscar Equations: Jarhead

Sam Mendes Oscar History
American Beauty(1999) = 8 nominations. 5 wins.
Pic* Dir* Actor* Actress. Screenplay* Cinematography* Editing. Score.
Road to Perdition(2002) = 6 nominations. 1 win.
Supporting Actor. Cinematography. Art Direction. Sound. Sound Editing. Score.
Jarhead(2005) =????

Let's see, with my amazing grasp of complex mathematical formulas [snort] we have... 3 years -2 nominations, 3 years -4 wins -assuming the same depreciation over another 3 years... -2 more nominations would equal 4. and -4 wins = 0 wins. variable unknown in regards to Deakins no-win legend ± (Hall) x (Deakins) - ...and only 2 similar nominations. Let's see working out this complex formula on my  ...

Jarhead = 4 nominations. 0 wins. Cinematography. Supporting Actor. Sound. Sound Editing.

14 comments:

javi said...

um... i don't know what i've just read. but if this scenario comes to pass come Oscar time, I think I might as well eat my brain out.

Anonymous said...

Mr. Rogers,

your formula makes absolute sense, it is as clear as water.
If AMPAS does not follow your prediction, it is their problem.

Marcelo.

arkaan said...

I think it could get editing before sound editing - like Black Hawk Down.

Anonymous said...

the reviews in variety and hollywood reporter aren't very enthusiastic and don't even comment on Sarsgaard's performance, which doesn't seem particularly promising.

Kris said...

Not happening. This is where he hit the wall.

Best chances are film editing, cinematography and sound, as Murch and Deakins still command respect. Nothing more.

NATHANIEL R said...

y'all realizing i'm goofing around with these things right? I still can't wait to see this.

adam k. said...

Those four noms actually sound just about right.

But yeah, I could also see Saarsgard missing out YET AGAIN since it might not even be such a great role. And there's still no evidence that they even realize what a great actor he is.

I, on the other hand, have been a devotee since Boys Don't Cry... but I still have to see Shattered Glass... shame on me. How about we make a pact, Nathaniel, YOU go rent the Exorcist (RIGHT. NOW. you wuss) and I will go rent Shattered Glass.

Anonymous said...

Ah, American Beauty and Perdition. Sigh. Love every second of both.

Jarhead trailer. WTF?!!!

Rob

david m said...

Saarsgard's perf in Shattered Glass was riveting and deserved the Oscar, but since then in Kinsey and Garden State there was an element of been having been there, seen that. Still very good, but not new.

Hopefully in Jarhead or Dying Gaul he'll show what else he can do.

Don't get me wrong, what he does is great, but more variety would be nice.

Anonymous said...

I agree with David. Peter's good and all but I'm yet to be completely won over yet. I definitely no where near at the stage with Peter that Nathaniel is (despite having seen his penis, we're just no that emotionally bonded you see)

-Glenn

adam k. said...

Uh oh... early reviews are in for Jarhead and they're very mixed. Might not be the oscar juggurnaut Nat thinks it is.

adam k. said...

Uh oh... early reviews are in for Jarhead and they're very mixed. Might not be the oscar juggurnaut Nat thinks it is.

Anonymous said...

Yeah, that's been the feeling that has been doing the oscar watching rounds this last week. Poland wasn't a big fan, neither was Kris and several others I've heard also have issues.

I think the three categories that Nat mentioned (getting rid of Sarsgaard) actually sound like good bets for the film.

-Glenn

chaz said...

I saw Jarhead tonight, and while I think that it is Sam Mendes's best film (I hated American Beauty, shoot me), there is absolutely no way it will be nominated for Best Picture. It is NOT a satiric commentary that offers criticisms of the current war in Iraq, it is anti-war in a way, but it is not political in a revelatory fashion. It also isn't an action packed war thriller, as most of the film is about the inaction of the ground troops and the boredom they face in Saudi Arabia waiting 5 months for something to do. What it is, is a fascinating commentary on male agression/sexual frustration and war in general and a look at the impact of the Vietnam War on today's military and the impact of classic Vietnam War films (Jarhead is explictitly aware of its legacy to films such as Full Metal Jacket, Apocalypse Now, and the Deer Hunter and offers wry commentary on their place in our culture). It is a completely new kind of war movie for a the completely different kind of war Iraq was (most of the action in David O. Russell's Three Kings so it doesn't cover the same territory), although Jarhead focuses on ground sniper troops, Operation Desert Storm was almost entirely fought in the air rendering such troops useless. I thoroughly enjoyed it although it's far different from what I suspect most people are expecting it to be (I overheard two groups leaving the movie complaining; one about it's lack of commentary on today's war and another about how it looked like a "kickass" action movie in the trailer and how it was boring).

Roger Deakins's rough but breathtaking cinematography is definitely Oscar worthy (although they are very different stylistically not since Lawrence of Arabia has the desert been this artfully captured on film). I also think that the editing could defintely merit a nomination, but it will be hard since the Academy doesn't really like non Best Picture nominees. Jake Gyllenhaal was great, but I am thinking that he isn't going to get a double nomination and a supporting nod for Brokeback Mountain is more likely. Peter Sarsgaard's character was one of the few false notes in the movie. While he did a great job acting (particularly in what could be seen as the aborted "climax" of the film), his role was criminally underwritten and confusing and there is no way he will get a nomination for it.

I fully reccomend seeing Jarhead with an open mind, it redefines what a war/anti-war movie should be, and it is artfully directed by Sam Mendes and lensed by Roger Deakins, while it won't be a major Oscar contender, it is definitely worth a visit.