Tuesday, January 03, 2006

The Guilds Gather...

Starting tomorrow the guild announcements begin in full force. By the end of this week the Oscar race will clear up considerably. We'll know if there's any life left in that depression era boxer, those catty geisha, the big ape, etc... In other words all of the second tier stuff. No matter the outcome of the ensemble SAG nominations on the 5th (viewed incorrectly as "best picture" --but what can you do?) Walk the Line, Brokeback, and Good Night and Good Luck are looking safe. Everything else could seriously use the boost. My SAG predictions here. I don't claim to know anything. SAG is difficult to predict. Their nominating committee is different every year and their membership is wide and diverse. I'm hoping there's a "Station Agent" size surprise in store. But that's probably asking too much.


John T. said...

I could definitely see The Squid and the Whale as the surprise, but I have to ask, why skip Scarlett and Judi Dench?

John T. said...

And why no mention of Theron (not even in the alternates)?


well i am assuming (perhaps wrongly) that my own lack of enthusiasm for Scarlett's performance would transfer. I assume this because I am a fan and am prone to like her work. But I thought she was merely good --nothing award worthy in the movie.

as for no mention of Theron I was trying to limit myself to 2 or 3 alternates so as not to overdo it. ;)

adam k. said...

Yeah, I agree that Squid and Whale could be in there. And I forgot about the ensemblishness of Syriana. I am stupidly predicting that aHoV will make the cut in ensemble.

And I think your supporting actress lineup is very smart. I thought Johannson would make it, but on second thought, maybe not... she seems like she could be this years Portman type role that wins the globe but misses SAG and then gets nominated for oscar but loses. McDormand seems like the kind of thing they'd bite it (North Country sort of has that "I Am Sam" vibe to me).

adam k. said...

Wait, Nat, do you think Kate would have been better in Match Point than Scarlett? I stay up nights wondering if this role would've won Kate her oscar. OK, not really. But I do wonder. I kind of wish she'd stuck with this. Though Woody thought Scarlett was fine enough.

Anonymous said...

No Dench?! But... seriously... NO DENCH?! She got nominated for The Shipping News, but you think you'll pass her over for this one?

Can't see it, and don't want to live in a world where that happens!


Izzy said...

Well, Rob, I would assume Judi's still got a chance in the cameo category for P&P, where she did nail a role that historically has given actresses trouble(Just watch the 1995 miniseries. The poor lady there couldn't pull it off).
Though her work in Ladies in Lavender really was quite remarkable too.

Kamikaze Camel said...

er, I think he's talking about SAG nominees - not film bitch.

Anonymous said...

I did, but my bad for saying "you'll" rather than "they'll". Doh - sorry!

Sometimes I'm too overcome to worry about little things like hitting the right keys.


John T. said...

The WGA's are in!!!

Original Screenplay
-Cinderella Man
-The 40-Year Old Virgin
-Good Night, and Good Luck
-The Squid and the Whale

Adapted Screenplay
-Brokeback Mountain
-The Constant Gardener
-A History of Violence

John T. said...

Biggest shocks for me:

Where's Woody Allen?
40-Year-Old Virgin?

I'm glad History of Violence made it though-I knew that would be an iffy one and this certainly helps its Oscar chances.