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The following people have won SAG Awards and Golden Globes, and then went off to lose the Oscar (I hold out that PSH joins them:Renee Zellwegger (and she lost to my favorite performance of the year-Nicole Kidman in The Hours)Russell CroweLauren Bacall (and she lost to my second favorite performance of the year-Juliette Binoche).I don't know Nathaniel's opinion on Bacall, but I know that Crowe and Zellwegger are on his dislike list, so maybe there's hope that Hoffman will lose.
The expressions in that photo are brilliant. Weisz looks absolutely scandalized.
I've noticed an odd phenomenon at the SAGs. They like to give "backsies": awarding someone whom they overlooked for their Oscar film. For example, they gave Judi Dench an Actor for "Chocolat" after bypassing her in her Oscar-winning "Shakespeare In Love." They gave Crowe an Actor for "Beautiful Mind" after he lost for "Gladiator." They also awarded Jodie Foster, Kathy Bates, and Daniel Day Lewis, people whose Oscars were awarded before the SAG awards' existence. This trend explains many of the instances when SAG and Oscar disagree, and unfortunately it can't be attributed to any of this year's wins. All of which is to say, it'll take a lot for any of the SAG winners to lose Oscars.
ah but John. Crowe and Zellweger also WON very annoying Oscars. so it's not a fool proof system.ali, isn't it great. i love rachel's face.bryan, agreed. it'll be a snooze fest this year. the only drama remaining may well be best supporting actor. Clooney & Giamatti seem even/steven to me.
Yeah the oscar wins get more boring every year. Every year after nominations hit, it's like cold water on my face waking me up from the coma of obsession, both from the random impossible-to-predict choices they make with nominations (like, why even try, when Troy gets nominated for costumes, and Samantha Morton gets nommed for In America? makes no sense), and also the inevitability of who will win the actual statues... it just becomes not worth caring so much about, and yet the cycle continues. Infuriating. At least I truly care about the best picture winner this year, though, and will love seeing it win.But yeah, that Rachel Weisz pic is amazing. It looks like she's about to breathe fire into Thandie's face (dragon lady!)
I've finally posted my nomination predictions on my blog. Phew.
bryan, i agree with your assessment, but submit that Giamatti's win could easily fall into this category. i also agree it seems like a Giamatti/Clooney duel at this point, but I wouldn't rule out Gyllenhaal, who I think is a lock for a nom. The fact that he's basically a lead will help him (just ask Tim Robbins, Marcia Gay Harden, Benicio del Toro, or Jim Broadbent), as will the fact that it's looking increasingly unlikely that Heath or Michelle will win.
I posted my predictions as well.
I also posted my predictions in my blog. Nat, why aren't you doing a Oscar nom contest?I'm still a bit bitter for missing the deadline on the last one (I went 5/5 in my blog too!).
My absolutely bonkers precictions are up (Kar-Wai! Batman! Newton! + more).If I see both Phillip AND Paul Giamatti on stage on Oscar night I think I'm gonna cry.
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