Jog your memory fiercely.
Really work those mnemonic muscles.
Remember that early bird Best Actress Oscar prediction contest "Actress Psychic"? Well the point totals are finally here. I had some spreadsheet difficulties but it's now done with a little less than 2 months to go before the contest ends. Once Oscar nominations are announce I award gold, silver and bronze medals for the most psychic of all TFE readers. Rich Aunt Pennybags, Patrick T, JarJar K and Ben F are tied for first place so far.
So here are the points amassed since the contest began...
(a few minor corrections made)
Anne Hathaway Rachel Getting Married +14 (EW cover that mentions Oscar, hosted Saturday Night Live, Played in Toronto & Venice, Indie Spirit and Satellite nominee, film actually opened)
Anjelina Jolie Changeling + 12 (Vanity Fair & EW covers, played at Cannes and won a prize for Clint Eastwood, Satellite nominee, film opened & box office)
Meryl Streep Mamma Mia! +12 (Film Comment & EW cover that mentions Oscar, EW entertainer of year list, Satellite nominee, film opened & box office)
Meryl Streep Doubt +10 (Film Comment & EW cover that mentions Oscar, EW entertainer of year list, Satellite nominee)
Sarah Jessica Parker Sex & the City + 5 (EW cover but no points since the cover is shared by three others, EW entertainer of the year list, film opened & box office)
Melissa Leo Frozen River + 5 (Gotham Award, Indie Spirit & Satellite Nominee, film opened)
Franka Potente Che +5 (Played at Cannes and won a prize for Benicio Del Toro & played at Toronto)
Sally Hawkins Happy-Go-Lucky +4 (Played at Toronto, Satellite nominee, film actually opened)
Julianne Moore Blindness +4 (Played at Cannes & Toronto, film opened)
Kate Winslet The Reader + 4 (Vanity Fair cover, Satellite nominee)
Kate Winslet Revolutionary Road + 3 (Vanity Fair cover)
Amy Adams Sunshine Cleaning +3 (Vanity Fair cover)
Rachel McAdams The Lucky Ones +3 (Played at Toronto, film opened)
Keira Knightley The Duchess + 3 (Played at Toronto, film opened)
Natalie Portman Brothers +3 (served on jury at Cannes)
Diane Lane Nights in Rodanthe + 2 (film opened & box office)
Ellen Burstyn Lovely Still (+2 Played at Toronto)
Vera Farmiga Nothing but the Truth (+2 Played at Toronto)
Charlize Theron The Burning Plain +2 (Played at Toronto & Venice)
Kerry Washington Lakeview Terrace +2 (film opened & box office)
Cate Blanchett The Curious Case of Benjamin Button +1 (Interview cover)
Emily Blunt Sunshine Cleaning / The Young Victoria (+1 NY Times Style Magazine)
Gwyneth Paltrow Two Lovers +1 (Played at Cannes)
+1 hey, at least their films opened
Hiam Abbas -The Visitor, Mischa Barton -Closing the Ring, Juliette Binoche -Voyage of the Red Balloon, Patricia Clarkson -Married Life, Penelope Cruz -Elegy, Helen Hunt -then she found me, Norah Jones -my blueberry nights, Nicole Kidman -Australia, Julianne Moore -savage grace, Ellen Page -the tracey fragments, Meg Ryan -the women, Sissy Spacek -lake city, Uma Thurman -life before her eyes, Naomi Watts -funny games
It's possible that there are human errors in points and so on. If so let me know. Here's that complete chart. But overall, I think the March 2008 collective prediction is probably going to be 40- 60% correct come nomination morning.
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29 comments:
lol i'm so far behind.
I can't believe I have as many points as I do with my horrible (in hindsight) line up. Two of them haven't even opened up yet!
I have the exact same pics as Benji, but he has one point more than me : (
Doesn't matter, though, I'm pretty far off the lead.
and my "pics" I meant "picks"
and by "my" I meant "by"
Well, considering four of my five predictions seem like very solid bets right now (only Kidman isn't gonna happen for sure) I think I'm doing pretty good. I just need the movies to freakin' open!
Hathaway, Hawkins, Abbass, Leo, and perhaps someone else I am forgetting deserve additional points for the Rottentomatoes score.
Did Edge of Love really open (in the US, since I assume that's what counts contestwise)? I can't find confirmation for that.
I can't wait to see Amy Adams in Sunshine Cleaning. The trailer is awesome!
I will enjoy my moment of glory (ie. being highlighted) while it lasts. Hurrah!
oops. i did forget the rotten tomatoes points. I knew i'd forget something -i'll double check points and release dates.
Gotta say that Pink video is fabulous. Someone explain to me why that woman isn't on the cover of "Rolling Stone" and Britney is? (Oh, yeah, b/c RS stopped meaning something back in - what, 1977?)
adam k -- actually benji has Winslet in The Reader and you have Winslet in Rev Road... so he has one more point now because of that Satellite nod ;)
All top 19 contenders have Hathaway :)
Curse you, Emily Blunt!
Nathaniel, Cate Blanchett is actually receiving a star on the Hollywood Walk of Fame on Friday. Does that warrant any kind of extra points??
no. but damn i shoulda thought of that.
Joe - I agree!
Ew, Jullianne Moore. I mean, of all people...
Oh damn it all. F*cking golden satellite awards.
I hope to be vindicated when Winslet's nommed for Rev Road next year.
I hope to be vindicated when Winslet's nommed for Rev Road next year.
I blame this contest for why I'm so adamant at other prognosticating sites that Kate Winslet should be nominated for The Reader for Best Actress instead of Revolutionary Road. I do love her as an actress, and I feel weird that I'm not as happy as all the other Winslet fanatics that are sure that she'll get a double nomination this year and win in supporting for The Reader. I want her to win, but like others in the recent Reader thread, I do feel like it would taint it somehow if she won the wrong award. Also, I think that there's at least five other real supporting actresses that they could nominate instead, and that all of those actresses need the boost more than Winslet would.
I am predicting after reading a number of reviews for the movies: Doubt and The Reader.. that Streep will cop the Oscar as BA and Winslet will get the gold for BSA... I would like that!
A little late myself for this, but I usually take a look at the collective prediction and see how well it is doing against my own belief that the no more than two of the consensus picks will make the short list, and my lack of surprise if none make it.
Let's see how they are doing.
Meryl Streep, "Doubt" - this nomination is taking on the characteristics of an unstoppable force of nature, irrespective of the quality of the performance. And, unlike Cate last year, the performance is in a movie that isn't awful. In for sure.
Kate Winslet, "Revolutionary Road" - I have her up for "The Reader" and her performance in that film, if the movie gets any Best Picture traction, could generate enough of a split vote that her turn in "Road" does not make the cut ('supporting' category fraud notwithstanding). The buzz on "Road" appears divisive, and that cannot be good for her chances.
Angelina Jolie, "Changeling" - Stupid, stupid, stupid of me not to look for the screenwriter on this before making my picks. Jolie + Eastwood + Straczynski = nomination. What sentiment there is from last year's passover will just be icing on the cake. Can't miss.
Julianne Moore, "Blindness" - dead on arrival. No critics, no box office, no buzz...no hope.
Emily Blunt, "Young Victoria" - Gone. See you in '09.
So, from the starting five we appear to be down to an absolute maximum of three, with plenty of questions, in my humble opinion, on Winslet. I'm thinking two this year...maybe this time i'll be right.
Is Revolutionary Road really that divisive? A lot of people love it, and even those who aren't crazy about it don't really hate it, and seem to appreciate Winslet's performance.
If anything, The Reader will be the divisive one. There's plentiful nudity, Kate plays a Nazi, and naysayers complain that they're not emotionally moved, however impressive Kate's perf may be.
i imagine even people who don't like Rev Rd will still like Leo & Kate in it. I'm still seeing his & hers Oscars
"Angelina Jolie, "Changeling" ... Can't miss." but she can. quite easily.
From my estimations, there are only three contenders left who don't have a virtually out-of-play actress (Moore, Blunt, etc) on their ballots.
(And among them is yours truly)
From my estimations, there are only three contenders left who don't have a virtually out-of-play actress (Moore, Blunt, etc) on their ballots.
(And among them is yours truly)
I'm too lazy to look at everyone's predictions, but I presume that you're talking about three of the names highlighted in yellow. I see you, KiYe, and myself have the most realistic shot since I guess technically all our choices are still in play unlike the people who chose someone like Julianne Moore or Emily Blunt. I'm not sure if that's the three that you meant though.
Now I really have to hope that Kate Winslet gets in for The Reader now because you both picked her getting in for Revolutionary Road, :). Seriously though, I don't think I'm going to fair that well. Hawkins might win the Globe, but I don't know if she'll actually make it to the Oscar line-up. I also think that Jolie's chances are pretty bad right now too while I think that Blanchett will be nominated. Very good call on your part. You must have ESPN.
//Nathaniel, Cate Blanchett is actually receiving a star on the Hollywood Walk of Fame on Friday. Does that warrant any kind of extra points??//
Hmmm. Nicole got her star whilst promoting the Hours and before she got her Oscar, did she not? Oh dear.
ha ha. it's really not that correlative. Stars get their Oscars at all sorts of weird times -- like Pfeiffer JUST getting hers last year.
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