Wednesday, December 10, 2008

NYFCC Gets Happy Drinking Milk

Here we go. The New York Film Critics Circle announcements are made.

Picture: Milk
Director:
Mike Leigh, Happy-Go-Lucky
<--- Actress:
Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky
NY & LA combined is powerful leverage for Oscar nods. Maybe that BFCA snub won't hurt her at all since she was losing Best Actress buzz
Actor: Sean Penn, Milk
Supporting Actress:
Penélope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Supporting Actor:
Josh Brolin, Milk
Screenplay: Jenny Lumet, Rachel Getting Married
Animated Film:
WALL•E
Foreign Film: 4 Months, 3 Weeks and 2 Days (Romania)
Best First Film:
Courtney Hunt, Frozen River
Documentary:
Man on Wire
Cinematography:
Anthony Dod Mantle, Slumdog Millionaire

The clear boosts here, Oscar-wise, are Gus Van Sant's sure to be nominated Milk biopic and Mike Leigh's less buzzy but winning Happy-Go-Lucky. Overall it's a nice continuation of LAFCA's spreading of the wealth. Cruz is really gunning for that Oscar. If she pulls it off for Vicky Cristina Barcelona, Woody Allen becomes the third most successful director of all time in terms of getting actors to the podium. He's currently tied for fourth place with Clint Eastwood, Martin Scorsese, John Ford and George Cukor. They've each directed five actors to the shiny statuette. The all time leader is William Wyler (Ben-Hur, Roman Holiday, Funny Girl, etcetera) who in all likelihood will never be dethroned in this regard: He's directed 13 acting winners.
*

88 comments:

Actionman said...

Holy shit, Mike Leigh just won best director!

Jeff said...

Hawkins is totally in for best actress!
Hathaway,Strepp and Hawkins are looking very safe.
I think Winslet could get snubbed for best actress.
my favorite category is getting too exciting!

Katey said...

Nathaniel I'm starting to share your glee at how the precursors are all over the map right now. I didn't even love Happy-Go-Lucky that much, but this is bananas!

Michael Parsons said...

YAY

NATHANIEL R said...

katey yes. that always makes awards season more exciting. PLUS: if you think about the fact that the people who work to entertain us are actually people (which we civilians forget) there's a certain vicarious pleasure to be had in the sharing of wealth. More than one person should get to be happy during awards season

(i'm channeling Poppy who'd like everyone to be happy)

jeff i dunno. it's so confusing still.

streep/blanchett/winslet

are all "default" oscar people... who don't need that much buzz to get in. they're perennials.

leo & hathaway doing well in precursors
hawkins now rising again
jolie being part of the eastwood machine

VERY confusing. almost anyone could still be snubbed i think.

Robert said...

Interesting that Heath isn't sweeping. I thought he might now, but I didn't suspect Brolin to be the one stealing his thunder.

Robert said...

*"might not" is what I meant to say above.

And also Penelope just snagged another one.

adam k. said...

Where or where is Kristin Scott Thomas this awards season? She seems to have totally fallen off the map. She was touted as the big critical favorite but has ZILCH so far.

I think she could be in for a last-minute NSFC lifeboat
/resurgence... but maybe that's just me.

adam k. said...

And I'm happy for Cruz, as I LOVED her in VCB and still think she's owed something for Volver, but the already-sure-thing sweeping is not doing much to clarify the supporting actress field. This makes things hard for Rosemarie, Debra, Marisa, Amy, etc. I think the ones who'll benefit are Taraji (best picture visibility) and Winslet (perennial nominee... particularly if things in best actress don't go as planned).

David Giancarlo said...

Frozen River is putting up a BIG fight. The critics are really putting it out there for their own.

Michael Parsons said...

Not really surprised that the critics groups are picking Sally. Hers is a performance that although brilliant and complex, is also so refreshing and different from all the other serious work happening this year.

Derek said...

Penélopeeeeeeeeee!!!!!

adam k. said...

And I'm really not convinced that Jolie has much of a shot. If she couldn't make it in last year for an acclaimed film, can she this year for a middling film that no one really cares about? Even if it IS directed by Eastwood. This year, they can really show their hand and nominate Eastwood himself for acting if they love him so much. I don't think they'll direct that love at Angelina. Especially as we now have Streep, Winslet, Hathaway and Hawkins all positioned for nods, with everyone seemingly wanting to get behind Melissa Leo as well, with Blanchett in a best pic and KST lurking, hopefully still in the game. I just don't know why voters would pick Jolie. No #1 ballots for that one.

Ryan said...

Uh, since when is Heath Ledger spelled J-o-s-h B-r-o-l-i-n?! Bastards.

But since the NYFCC rightly bestowed my boy with Best Actor in 2005- for his greatest work no less- I’ll give them a pass.

Also, I’m fucking thrilled, THRILLED for Sally Hawkins!

eric said...

This seals the deal. NYFCC + LAFCA + (inevitable) GLOBE win =

Academy Award nominee Sally Hawkins.

Robert said...

Seriously this is too nerve-racking.

It's like awaiting the announcement of the new pope.

Anonymous said...

Actually I think this could spell trouble for Hathaway. She has detractors (though not me). That NBR win was a godsend. I think it will come down to just how much pull Eastwood has in actors branch- in terms of Jolie possibly getting in.

PPO-10 said...

I love how Mike Leigh can take relatively unheralded actresses and turn them into, if not stars, then critical darlings who will be guaranteed work for the rest of their lives. At this point, getting cast in a Leigh film is a guarantee of at least an OBE in the future, and is probably preferable to that.

Can't wait to see H-G-L -- hope it lives up to my lofty expectations.

YH said...

SALLY HAWKINS!

:) :) :)

1st-time Academy Award nominee.

john said...

God, this is getting quite exciting. But seriously are the Academy actually going to pay attention to the likes of Hawkins, Leo et al?

jimmy said...

could there possibly be a shocker in best actress race....ie streep be left off?

PPO-10 said...

Hawkins will probably make it after this...AMPAS usually goes for the Leigh ladies anyway, as implied by my previous post. I think Streep is fine and Scott Thomas will probably be the first "probable" to get KO'd. I'm nervous for Winslet too.

Well, 4M3W2D won Foreign Film, and though it is probably one of my favorite films of all time, that is definitely an anti-climactic result.

PPO-10 said...

Looks like we're going to get another 2-time Best Actor winner this year. Which is fine because I am positive I would not be able to live in a world with "Academy Award winner Mickey Rourke," no matter how good he is.

adam k. said...

Penn wins actor. Bad news for Mickey Rourke. His nomination is still probably fine, but it'll be hard for him to pull off a win now.

Looks like it's Penn v. Eastwood for best actor.

adam k. said...

I really wish Murray had won in 2003, so Penn could be a slam dunk now. And to think, it seemed so urgent for them to give Penn a career award...

Derek said...

Well, 4M3W&2D is at least better than any other foreign film I've seen that was actually released in 2008.

NATHANIEL R said...

yeah i'm very happy for 4 Months... and since it didn't open in NYC until 2008 that's cool.

Anonymous said...

No Mickey Rourke? Sad.

fuffa said...

i think winslet will be left out
and leo is joan allen
and a pass for blanchett (not the main attraction of the film)

that leaves us with

streep
hathaway
jolie (don't underestimate the eastwood machine)
scott-thomas
hawkins

Anonymous said...

@ adam

i don't know at what numbers you're looking at but bo for changeling is much better than some of the films in which star best actress hopefuls/

it is receiving great reviews in europe and makes some top ten list

and jolie was nominated by Satellite and BFCA

adam k. said...

Wouldn't it be fantastic if the NYFCC now decided to get behind WALL•E to give it some real "oomph"? Won't happen, though.

But it would be fun if they went for something other than the expected Milk or Happy-Go-Lucky.

Cristhian said...

Melissa Leo and Sally Hawkins for best actress ad if there's a god maybe Wall-e nominate for Best Picture... If that's the case, this race will get more exciting than the presidential election.
I hope Angelina gets nothing.

PPO-10 said...

I agree with Adam -- if Jolie couldn't do it last year, she won't do it this year. She's lucky she got her statuette in 1999 because she's turning into an Under No Circumstances.

I'll predict "Milk" for Picture with dark horse "Rachel."

Anonymous said...

Is it just me or has Hanna overshadowed April? It's not bizzare in that the role is (for most people) more interesting but it is in that RR is a "bigger" film. I still think a Globe and an Oscar nomination (and win) is what the future will bring but but I just feel something has gone not "according to plan".

By the way, I'm happy for Poppy but I think Cruz has become the year's most overrated actress. I liked her performance but I was hopind an actress had to do something better to garner so many awards.


Jim

Mariposa said...

Milk won Best Picture

adam k. said...

I think Kate may actually be fine. Kris at InContention (or someone anyway) said that RR screeners didn't arrive until very late, so many of them may not have watched it (in the BFCA, that is). The BFCA omission is the only truly worrying thing that's happened to Winslet so far. It's not surprising that she hasn't bagged any critics' awards; the critics are propping up true longshots like Sally Hawkins and Melissa Leo.

At the Satellites, the Reader perf DID get in over RR, but if the globes, SAG and oscar still to the categorizations that are being campaigned, Winslet should be okay.

The globe noms tomorrow will tell the tale. If RR and Winslet fail there, then she's in trouble. If she gets a double nom, she's golden.

Robert said...

Milk it is.

I've been calling this the Oscar frontrunner all year... and the NYFCC certainly doesn't clinch it for sure or anything.

But it feels good.

adam k. said...

Milk could get lots of nominations tomorrow:

BEST PIC (DRAMA)
BEST ACTOR (DRAMA) - Penn
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR - Brolin
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR - Franco
BEST DIRECTOR
BEST SCREENPLAY?
BEST SCORE?

Screenplay and score are shaky, but it could get as many as 7 nods. 4 are guaranteed. 5 are likely. 6 are very possible. And that would probably give it the most nominations.

I would love to see Milk win this year... perfect penance for Brokeback.

Guy said...

LOVE the illustration, Nat. Isn't Sally Hawkins the cutest Godzilla you ever did see?

Sally Belle said...

Wow, Nathaniel...do I ever agree with sharing the wealth. So many amazing performances this year.

So, I'm happy for MIlk..yay! Mike Leigh...wow! But, I want to see Mickey start to get a few of the Best Actor awards. Penn should be sharing the wealth with Rourke. If ever there was a year for a tie...in my book...this would be it!

Why do you think The Wrestler is not shaking things up more? The late release date? Something else?

NATHANIEL R said...

i think the late release is a problem yes. I mean, Fox Searchlight strangely decided to put their eggs all in the slumdog basket when honestly they two honest-to-god contenders. I think THE WRESTLER, being small and intimate and needing the critics probably needed a lot of discussion. It got some during festival season but you want people talking about how the movie is going to be a future classic.

some films need to open in December to be in play (before people have a chance to turn against them) but others, usually the great ones or the ones that are small enough to need to "build" benefit immeasurably from at least November eyeballs.

that said maybe THE WRESTLER will be a major force at the Globes and the NSFC and SAG. You never know.

the season isn't over at all.

Sally Belle said...

Nathanial - That's what I thought. Two years ago I got four screeners of Little Miss Sunshine, last year two of Juno...this year...nothing. Slumdog has been open, but The Wrestler has been kept a secret to most.

Weird. Especially since everyone I know who is anyone that has seen this film has called it "stunning". That is the word used almost every time. Stunning.

Rourke, honestly, is not much worse then Penn on the bad boy scale...he just has no filter, so we hear it all. Penn is a Leo, and smart enough to hide it in the back alleys. I'm sorry Fox is mucking up his Oscar run.

Well...like I said, I am happy for Milk. I put it at the top of my list as soon as I saw the trailer. I hope it beats Slumdog's ass.

Anonymous said...

Is it wrong to be extremely glad SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE didn't get one of the big 7?

Iggy said...

I'm feeling there's going to be a Cruz backlash (really) soon. I don't get why "a good/very good performance", "a showy part", "stealing the show" which are the things I keep on reading about her even from most detractors, and doing this switching from one language to another, can lead to the conclusion that her performance is overrated or it just isn't that great.

Iggy

mrripley said...

i have a sneaky feeling scott thomas is out.

my 5 as of today

streep
hawkins
hathaway
leo
winslet

NATHANIEL R said...

sally i asked for a screener too and got a flat "no"

it is a new strategy for Fox Searchlight who will usually bury people in swag ;)

maybe they're just trying the Clint Eastwood M$B strategy (withhold till last minute and take over the discussion)? but is so: risky. Aronofsky not equalling Eastwood in media or industry pull and Rourke not equalling, well...

anyway. I really hope we see more of Rourke during awards season because he's seriously great in the movie.

NATHANIEL R said...

iggy --not sure i follow your question

Anonymous said...

I don't foresee a Cruz backlash at all. People that follow the race from day to day (i.e. us) may get bored of the same person winning, but she has a lot of support in Hollywood for this film. Her level of respect shot through the roof after "Volver" was released, and most people love this performance. I expect her to continue her run with easy wins at the Golden Globes and Broadcast Film Critics.

Anonymous said...

I've made some observations on this year's awards season.

If Streep gets 2 Globe nominations, she will have broken Lemmon's record.
If she also gets an Oscar nomination, she will have tied Hepburn's "leading actress" record.

If Blanchett gets a Globe nomination, I THINK, she will beat Streep's record for most nominations in 10 years (1999-2009 for Blanchett, 1979-1989 for Streep). I say "I think" because I am not sure Streep owns this unofficial record. But She probably does.


If Winslet gets her 6th Oscar nomination, she will be the youngest actress to do so and if she gets her 7th as well.....


Jim

Iggy said...

I (too often) don't follow myself when I read what I wrote ;). So to avoid feeling embarrased, from time to time I stop writing.

I was thinking that there's gonna be some Cruz backlash soon, especially if she keeps on winning precursors. And I was trying to explain that I don't get it, because most what I've read about her performance is that she's (very) good, that she steals the show or that it was a showy part/merit is on a well-written part. And that I don't understand how those comments coming even from detractors could lead to the conclusion that she's overrated or that her performance isn't that great. Specially when she does all the stated above switching from one language to another (which, for me, for obvious reasons ;)) is the hardest part.

John T said...

Nat, who is the director who has gotten the second most nominations for their actors-from those you've already listed, I'm guessing it's either John Huston or Billy Wilder, but I'd be curious who Allen is out to take on next.

Anonymous said...

Iggy, perhaps you are right. I thought she was good but I just don't like seeing a performance like this taking home many awards. I would like to see a better performance do that. Maybe this year there aren't many. And I don't think alternating language (is that correct?) is THAT impressive.


Jim

NATHANIEL R said...

iggy and jim do you really think the alternating languages element (all bilingual people do that) is really what's garnering the praise? I'd say it's the vitality of the performance and character (the character always has something to do with the way performances are received of course)

like many a supporting winner, she's like an electric jolt for the movie. Sometimes that type of performance is bad (Renée anyone?) but other times the actor is doing fine work which i think is the case here.

Anonymous said...

John T,

Elia Kazan has the second most Oscar wins for his actors: 9 n total. Hard for Woody to catch that!

Anonymous said...

Why do you think The Wrestler is not shaking things up more? The late release date? Something else?/

Probably the "something else," re: Rourke's slimey real-life reputation, which will overshadow how great he was in "The Wrestler" for many people.

NATHANIEL R said...

john t the top ten directors in terms of acting nominations are...

1. william wyler -35
2. elia kazan -24
3. george cukor -21
4. (tie) martin scorsese -20
fred zinneman -20
6. (tie) sidney lumet -18
george stevens -18
8. (tie) mike nichols -17
billy wilder -17

the top in terms of directing acting WINS are

1. william wyler -13
2. elia kazan -9
3. fred zinneman -6

and then the four i mentioned in the post tied for 4th place with 5 wins

info from http://www.filmsite.org

Anonymous said...

Nate, I agree 100%. What I said about the language was only to answer to Iggy. I too think her performance is what generated the buzz (and the fact that it is a Woody Allen movie)


Jim

StinkyLulu said...

And don't forget that Cruz is in Supporting Actress, long a favorite category for the Academy to nominate an Allen film.

Cruz's nomination will be the 9th nominated Supporting Actress performance to emerge from a Woody Allen film. William Wyler directed films produced 12 supporting actress nominations. (Cruz's nomination will also break the tie for 2nd place btwn Allen, Kazan, Mike Nichols and Scorsese for total nominated Supporting Actress performances.) However, a win for Cruz will bring Allen into a tie with Kazan for directing the most Supporting Actress winners. (See my post on William Wyler for more supporting actress geekery.)

*****

But what I really wanted to ask:

Have any supporting actresses other than Cruz or Davis been singled-out as winners in the precursors? (I'm not asking about nominations/lists but instances in which a single supporting actress performance has been acknowledged.)

Nono said...

Nathaniel, I just saw The Wrestler...omg I will cry if Mickey doesn't win.

NATHANIEL R said...

stinky i don't understand the question

Iggy said...

lol.

I'm not sure if I'm really making myself clear.

The language thing.
Ok, in everyday life, there are so many people speaking two or more languages easily it's nothing shocking.
But I haven't seen so many actors doing it, they usually go the "different accent" way.

And yes, I do think acting in a language that isn't your own isn't that easy. Maybe is that I get impressed too easily, but that's so subjective...

But no, I don't think the praise she's receiving is due to the alternating language thing, I just mentioned it because I think it's a plus to her performance.

Anonymous said...

Stinky, I remember that Rosemarie DeWitt won an award but I don't remember which one.



Jim

The Know Nothing Know It All said...

Wow. The critics are rallying behind the Sally Hawkins it would seem. What a pleasant surprise! This is bad news for Kristin Scott Thomas, though. If she fails to land a Golden Globe nod, she might be dead in the water.

Sally Belle said...

I also hope to see more of Rourke in the coming weeks. He's actually a bit of a cupcake on the inside, which is why he became a victim of substance abuse, and developed such a tough exterior.

And, there's no denying he gave one of the best performances in many years.

I know some people had an issue with his recent "faggot" statement, and although I hate for anyone to use the word in a derogatory manner, he was talking about Perez Hilton. After the awful crap that Perez has said about his co-ctar Evan Rachel Wood, I think he deserved it. He is a scumbag, and Rourke was defending the honor of a friend.

Anonymous said...

I had no knowledge of the event you describe. Well, I find it quite stupid to defend someone by attacking someone for being gay, fat or whatever. He could have said a million things but he chose to use his homosexuality against him?? How mature is that? And how are the other gay people supposed to feel? God, an actor must be more open-minded and mature, I think.


Jim

Sally Belle said...

He was being followed by the paps, and he said it to them...not at a press conference or anything.

You know, Perez calls women whores, sluts, bitches and cunts. That's pretty offensive, don't you think?

Rourke apologized for his statement said in the wee hours of the morning to a group of paparazzi...where is Perez's apology?

I am sick of everyone sucking Perez Hilton's fame seeking dick!

Apologies to Nathanial for my bad language.

NATHANIEL R said...

sally and jim --can we never mention Perez Hilton again on this blog? he is so gross / offensive

carry on...

NYFCC ;)

Styx said...

I'm so thrilled for Sally Hawkins and Penelope Cruz right now. Both are far more in this race than I previously thought, especially when I was actually watching both of the actual films. I think that besides the stellar work that both did here, rewarding these comedy-bending performances is also a reflection of the times we're in -- needing to get away from all the dark and dreary war/recession drama and acknowledging more optimistic or comedic performances. It's definitely time for that, b/c cinematically, we're been in a dark phase for a long time. The work's been noteworthy, but maybe it's time for a shift.

Anonymous said...

Sally, you didn't understand what I said. I didn't defend the other person, I just said Rourke should have chosen another way to defend Rachel Wood(who is lovely). I didn't even know the other guy until ou mentioned him.

PS:Apologies are almost never honest.


Jim

Sally Belle said...

HaHa! yes...thank you.

Can I say though, that I would NEVER defend anyone I thought was attacking someone because they were gay. I don't believe Rourke was doing that.

Also, I became a fan of Wood's partly because of her amazing work on Once and Again, and partly because of an insightful interview she gave in The Advocate when she was 14 years old. I wish I could find it.

I also know her, and she is a fair and decent human being, with some legitimate father issues and a young woman's insecurities. If she survives this shaky time in her life, she will prove a force to be reckoned with.

He that will not be named should be ashamed for attacking her without knowing a thing about her.

That's all. Thanks Nathanial!

Anonymous said...

We're OK Sally. :) I really loved her in Pretty Persuation!! I thought she understood the role perfectly!


Jim

Anonymous said...

You guys are overacting Winslet has never won big with the critics awards and she has been nominated how many times? The critics are not Academy Members so calm down.

Go Sally knock Ann off her mediocre arse.

gabrieloak said...

I really think once we see other critics awards we will see other Best Actress winners other than Sally Hawkins. And I hope Penelope Cruz. I can barely remember anything about Cruz in the film except that she tries to shoot someone.

Anonymous said...

fuffa, Do you really think that Scott Thomas could be nominated instead Leo right now? Thomas is almost out of the competition (She really needs a Golden Globe Nomiantion).

My predictions:

1. Anne Hathaway, Rachel getting Married
2. Meryl Streep, Doubt
3. Sally Hawkins, happy-Go-Lucky
4. Melissa Leo, Frozen River (Wich Joan Allen? The Crucible or The Upside of Anger?)
5. Cate Blanchett, The Curious Case of B. B.

adam k. said...

Of course Cruz's language-hopping helped her garner acclaim, but just in the same way accents, singing, dancing, athletics, etc. always make people take more note of a performance. It's another technical skill she brought to the table is all. Why shouldn't people take that into account when judging the merits? And yes, many many people in the world can speak two languages, but it's rare to see someone act in two languages at once. Basically, the role plays to her strengths as an actress in a near-perfect way.

I think people are just feeling this is THE performance, this is her time, they wanna give her one, they wanna see Javier give her one, etc. It's just one of those big convergences that lead to major sweeps.

adam k. said...

That said, I think the SAG will go to either Winslet or Davis, and there'll be some suspense on oscar night.

But Cruz will probably still win.

NATHANIEL R said...

i think the world might fold in on itself if Kate is double nominated and loses both.

Anonymous said...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/7776185.stm

Most nominated loser. I hope not!


Jim

Anonymous said...

I agree with Anon, Kate hasn't really won any major critics awards before with the exception of Supporting Actress for Iris by the LAFCA.But that doesn't stop her from being nominated she is still very in.

I don't have anything against Penelope, but if she wins BSA it must've of been a pretty weak year in the supporting Actress category, cuz I didn't see anything revolutionary about her performance definitely not OScar worthy. I haven't seen many of the other performances yet, besides Rosemarie, so I'm backing her for now.

Someone just called Angelina Jolie's performance in the Changeling one note. Now I'm by no means an Angelina fan, but this grates my damn nerves. When someone criticizes a film or performance for being or doing something and praise someone else or a film for the same thing WTF are you people bipolar.

Javier Bardem was very one note for No Country, but the same person praised him the the highest degree. WTF. Get it together people, this is why people don't like critics they like what they want to like and bash what they don't want to like.

Another, A good one I hate when people mimic, but praise Amy Adams for doing the same thing with Enchanted.WTF.


Or I don't like when actors play the same character all the time, yet their favorite actors include Amy Adams and Morgan Freeman. That is so freaking annoying.


okay my rant is over.


Gina

Krauthammer said...

Re: Gina

I don't like it when actors play the same charector all the time but...

I'm always annoyed by the "they always play the same charector!" complaints. Some of the greatest screen actors of all time essentially playedthe same or similar charectors for the bulk of their career, but they played that charector so well and expertly explored every part of their persona. Cary Grant is just one that comes to mind. You can argue about whether the performance was good or not, but simply dismissing it for that reason is silly in my opinion.

/rant over

Anonymous said...

Krauthammer, I'm not saying it's good or bad. I'm just saying that I hate when people say that and then some of their favorite actors play the same character over and over. Point Blank give another excuse for not liking an actor. Criticizing a film or person for one thing and praising a different film or actor for the same thing is just plain HATING.

NATHANIEL R said...

jim we've discussed that before here. If she gets a double nom and loses both she will be the most nominated actress loser... (deborah kerr and thelma ritter are tied for that with 6 noms and no wins between them) if not the most nominated loser in acting.

Rich Aunt Pennybags said...

1. Anne Hathaway, Rachel getting Married
2. Meryl Streep, Doubt
3. Sally Hawkins, happy-Go-Lucky
4. Melissa Leo, Frozen River (Wich Joan Allen? The Crucible or The Upside of Anger?)
5. Cate Blanchett, The Curious Case of B. B.


Anon, I do like that the Best Actress category is more wide open even if I feel bad for poor KST because she does feel like she's going to be snubbed if she doesn't get that Globe nomination tomorrow morning. To think I actually had her winning a few weeks ago because there's still no clear frontrunner.

The above list looks about right though at least for now, who knows how the Globes will change it, but that last spot is probably between one of the two K/Cates with Blanchett perhaps being more likely now because of being in a movie nominated for Best Picture and with Winslet still being able to be nominated but only for Best Supporting Actress. If the above does turn out to be the line-up, I think it would be like the Best Supporting Actress race last year where it felt like pretty much anyone could win.

NATHANIEL R said...

IF it feels like anybody can win i bet it goes to Meryl. If they're not feeling moved in huge numbers for someone else, why not throw her the long awaited third? It has been 26 years.

I just can't see anne, sally, cate or melissa as winners.

but i still think Kate takes it if nominated.

Kamikaze Camel said...

I'm not seeing Blanchett as a nominee. Sure, people are liking the movie but in such a full Best Actress year - and after just being nominated twice - I think the Academy will pass. And Melissa Leo really is coming up from the back, isn't she? I'm super happy for Sally Hawkins. Totally deserved.

On the Cruz thing, Gina - you say Cruz isn't that special and then turn around and complain about people not liking Jolie enough. Everybody has differing opinions on all performances. It just so happens that Cruz's performance is much more loved than Jolie's.

I actually thought Cruz would take the Oscar months back, but even I'm surprised she's taking the critics prizes so easily (so far). I just didn't think they'd all charge back to Woody Allen so easily. Although Cruz is a bit of a more glamourous addition to a lowly critics' group awards dinner than, say, Rosemarie DeWitt or Viola Davis (performance notwithstanding) and we all know critics are just trying to get the chance to mingle with celebs at their award dinners, are they not?

YH said...

I think that "Revolutionary Road" is going to rally today with the Globes, and with Kate Winslet's likely double nomination, that'll propel her case again after these critics' setbacks. In reality, she wasn't going to win from these groups anyway. Her bread and butter were going to come from the industry, not the critics. I'm still including her as a double nominee in January. The bubble people to me are KST, Angelina, Cate Blanchett, etc. My five are Anne Hathaway, Kate Winslet, Meryl (she's getting in regardless), Sally Hawkins (you ROCK, Sally! What a week she's had! Get that Oscar nod!), and out-of-nowhere Melissa Leo. Can't wait to see what the Globes do today.

Rich Aunt Pennybags said...

I'm not seeing Blanchett as a nominee. Sure, people are liking the movie but in such a full Best Actress year - and after just being nominated twice - I think the Academy will pass.

I hope so unless she really deserves it, which I don't think she did last year at least for Best Actress. I just hate the default system of nominating the same few people even if they don't deserve it just because they're not original enough to think outside of the box. Not that I don't love Meryl, Kate, and Cate, but with all of them potentially in the mix this year to be nominated, it would be a shame if they all made it in if they didn't truly deserve it while someone like KST gets snubbed. (For the Globes, just insert Jolie's name into the rant, and it will be pretty much the same.)

IF it feels like anybody can win i bet it goes to Meryl. If they're not feeling moved in huge numbers for someone else, why not throw her the long awaited third? It has been 26 years.


I just can't see anne, sally, cate or melissa as winners.

but i still think Kate takes it if nominated.


Yes, I really can't see Anne, M'Leo, or Sally winning this year because Anne's too young, and the other two were in too small of films. I really hate to see Winslet win a default Oscar though at least that's what it feels like to me if she does win. I think she's likely great as she always is, but it seems like she probably doesn't really push herself like it sounds like she does in The Reader. I could be wrong, but it seems like DiCaprio and even Shannon kept getting more attention from critics at least in reviews if not for their awards so far than Winslet.

So if anyone has to win a default Oscar, I'd rather it be Streep at this point because at least she's picking up a few small critics wins, and if Jack can win his third for As Good As It Gets, I have no problem with her winning her third for Doubt. I'd actually rather see her win for Mamma Mia even though that movie seems to be hated by many people, but I love getting to see that playful side of her in the movies.

NATHANIEL R said...

rich aunt --well she has some playful acting moment in DOUBT. playful is the wrong word for sister aloysius but meryl gets the comedy of her at least.

i do think it's a really inconsistent performance but i love Meryl so whatevs.