Monday, January 25, 2010

Congratulations to The Sexy Locker !

Wow. The Hurt Locker actually pulled off the Producer's Guild Award win. Take that Avatar, biggest hit of all time (when not adjusted for inflation or inflated 3D ticket prices... let's keep perspective, media. I know that's a lot to ask). This is a bigger deal for Kathryn Bigelow's war drama than those multiple critics awards, at least where the Oscar race is concerned.


Soooo... do you think it means anything for Hollywood's big night? Or do you think Avatar will steamroll given its worldwide dominance? Or maybe those long weeks before the final votes come in (geez, we haven't reached nominations yet!) will shake things up yet further. Which film could gain a second third wind?
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36 comments:

tesh said...

I'm glad THL won. Good film, a B+/A- in my books.

Third wind, huh? Precious, maybe.

A N D R E W said...

I'm thinking Avatar and The Hurt Locker will split it on the night. And Nathaniel? When are you updating your predictions?

Dean said...

Yeah it seems years ago that Precious was perceived as the frontrunner. It would make things interesting if it got back momentum.

Jane said...

I miss the days when it was Up in the Air vs. Precious.

I don't see any more surprises though from the rest of the awards. DGA will definitely be either THL or Avatar. WGA will be THL and Up in the Air. BAFTA won't really matter cause they'll probably go for An Education.

A N D R E W said...

I'm actually really curious as to who takes the final spots in the BP line up. I think they're all too spots available with these as locks

AVATAR
THE HURT LOCKER
UP IN THE AIR
PRECIOUS
INGLORIOUS BASTERDS
AN EDUCATION
INVICTUS
UP

There are so many films vying for the last 2 spots. The Hangover, Nine, A Serious Man, A Single Man, It's Complicated, Julie & Julia, (500) Days of Summer, District 9, Star Trek, The White Ribbon, The Last Station, The Lovely Bones. I'm thinking they'll choose A Serious Man and either It's Complicated, Nine or A Single Man.

Robert Hamer said...

HELLZ YES!

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Sid said...

If Bigelow wins the DGA, it'll be very hard for Avatar to beat THL. Since the PGA and DGA started handing out awards, no film has won Best Picture without winning at least one of the big guilds (PGA, DGA, SAG, WGA).

Nigel said...

I've never been convinced that Avatar was the frontrunner, and this just confirms my suspicions. I do think Avatar will win everything it's nominated for except Editing, Director and Picture, so it will be able to boast about winning six or seven Oscars for a few years yet.

Victor said...

This season is looking like a tradicional Oscar season, like it was when they gave the awards in the end of March, with the late bloomers like The Pianist on its day surprising everyone. And I like it!!!
Everything happened to early this season. Almost every single award has been given before nominations!!!
A have no clue about who is going to win, but I suspect that the winner is going to be the movie that ages better at the minds of the voters. Or whatever looks best on a second viewing if they bother to see anything twice before voting.
We are a week away from nomination, they're using a different voting system and we have 10 nominees for the first time in 60+ plus. Things may not happen the way we are used to.

Sebastian Gutierrez said...

Honestly, I don't care anymore. It's between Bigelow's war drama, and Cameron's epic! Either one is deserving. I'll be happy with either one. As for third wind... psh, I don't know. Maybe Inglourious Basterds?

Ryan T. said...

I vote for Kate Winslet. She's in the running this year, right?

Dorian said...

"Avatar" lost this slam-dunk? How is that possible with this group? This is an insane awards season.

ajnrules said...

I'm thinking The Hurt Locker may very well win Best Picture, with James Cameron taking home the Best Director award...the reverse of earlier expectations.

Graham Greenlee said...

Avatar will win a number of tech Oscars, Hurt Locker is assured a win in Best Director, perhaps Editing or as dark horse in the Sound categories. But I honestly think both will split Best Picture... And Basterds will win in a "shocker."

(Though it won't be a shocker for me, as I've thought Basterds awards traction will be somewhat similar to The Departed for the last few months.)

Moasey said...

Could THL and Avatar split - making way for Inglourious Basterds? That would make me SMILE :)

Lara said...

Yay, Sexy Locker, Go! Go for that shiny dude!

Craig said...

This year's Best Picture race ironically parallels 1997 when James Cameron's special effects-infused megahit "Titanic" swept the Oscars and the Golden Globes. But nipping at its heels, however, was Curtis Hanson's "L.A. Confidential", which garnered the majority of important critics awards, including BFCA, National Society of Film Critics, New York, Los Angeles and Chicago. 2010 looks like a match-up between "Avatar" and the critic's darling "The Hurt Locker". Will history repeat itself? Or will the Academy choose the most honored film of the year? I'm cautiously optimistic that "The Hurt Locker" ultimately will win the big prize.

NATHANIEL R said...

i have decided to be neither cautiously optimistic nor hopelessly cynical.

I feel like we should all hit "reset" when the nominations are announced. Doesn't it seem like everyone is acting as if they were announced a whole month ago.

Please let there be (good) shockers given the lag.

and why were all precursor nominations so eager to be announced in the same week this year? and so much earlier than Oscar? Weirdness.

Ian said...

All of these groups were running scared of the Winter Olympics and had to get in under the wire before the Oscar nods.

O. Andrew D said...

any chance the SAG allows Inglourious to come in and take the award?

Bryan said...

@Ryan T.-- I vote for Kate Winslet, too. Seriously.

@Nathaniel-- I REALLY hope that there are some acting surprises. Actor, Supporting Actress, and Supporting Actor are getting stale.

I wish Precious would get a third wind. And I really hope that Kathryn makes history with the Director statue, and if that means a compromise where Avatar gets Best Picture, so be it.

Isn't the Academy's potential love for Avatar still kind of... unknown? Or at least we can agree their love for a purely computer-generated movie like this isn't exactly assured. Or is it?

And Nathaniel, I couldn't agree more with you regarding press hype. They simply can't contain their excitement that Avatar is making so much money. And is it really that surprising, given how expensive 3D tickets are? Poor Titanic... I like it more than Avatar. There. I said it.

Steven said...

I've never thought Avatar could win at the Oscars, not with the preferential voting system. (Would that many people put it in their top slot or even top 5?) Therefore, The Hurt Locker has a good chance at a victory, similar to what happened at the PGA, which also used a preferential voting system. It's a more universally liked movie among the film industry, so it seems.

~Steven

Benji said...

I love how the main competition at this point is between Cameron and Bigelow. Ex versus ex.
Also, I don't think Invictus or Up are locked in quite yet...

Evan said...

Can anyone explain to me what they mean by Avatar and The Hurt Locker "splitting," thereby allowing Inglourious Basterds to win?

If these two pictures are splitting the vote, then doesn't that mean that they have the same fanbase? And if so, do we really think that someone who would vote for The Hurt Locker would really have Avatar as his/her second choice?

FenixPahedi said...

I didnt like THL at all, i think it has things that make it qualify a s a good movie but it lacks that special something that makes a movie masterpiece.

I would love another movie to win the best picture but, lets get serious, it is the one to beat. Trillions will make Avatar a nominee but it wont win. Its sci fi people. And AMPAS does not like them, even if the best movies of 2009 were sci fi films.

FenixPahedi said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
gabrieloak said...

I don't want The Hurt Locker to win. It's good, not great and it has won enough already, much more than it ever deserved. There were certainly other films that could be honored this year. But maybe it is a weak year after all, if all the voters can think of awarding is The Hurt Locker over and over and over again for Best Picture.

adam k. said...

I do think the THL strength assured Bigelow of a win, at least, even if her film loses best pic because it's "too small."

People got so mad at the globes for denying her, but they seem to forget that the globes shattered their own glass ceiling for female directors loooooong ago, when they gave Babs their directing trophy. And they were the only major org to do that. So it's no wonder they didn't feel pressured to honor Bigelow this year. They're actually ahead of everyone else.

But yeah, I do think she'll win the DGA and the oscar. Given how big Avatar will be by the time they're voting on the wins, though, I don't think it can be counted out in the top race.

Anonymous said...

Just because they gave "Babs" the award doesn't mean they can do whatever they want with this year's award. What does that have to do with anything?

adam k. said...

Because that's how things work. Just like how SAG gave Meryl their award already last year, so felt no pressure to award her. It's human nature.

adam k. said...

And btw, I was arguing in favor of how Bigelow will win the oscar since the globes were an anamogy (due to aforementioned factors).

adam k. said...

*anomaly

dammit.

adam k. said...

And actually they CAN do whatever they want with this year's award, because it's THEIR award show. "Whatever they want" is exactly what they vote for. They don't have to vote for what you, the critics, Nathaniel, or anyone else want, as they so clearly demonstrated this year.

Graham Greenlee said...

To answer Evan... When I said Avatar and Hurt Locker could split, I meant that, in the general sense, both are perceived as frontrunners leading to a third film rising up between them to be the victor.

My thoughts are that Avatar and Hurt Locker have big pockets of support and will earn quite a few #1 votes. I think that Hurt Locker is in a better position to earn more #2 and #3 votes than Avatar (which is somewhat more polarizing), but that's all just speculation on my part.

I think that if neither Avatar or Hurt Locker pull ahead as THE one frontrunner, that it will be very important to look at the perceived bottom 2 or 3 #1 vote getters and guess as to which of the top contenders their votes would go to.

Or if we're speaking in a very general sense, it would be important to also look at the make up of the academy to see which fields gravitate to which film. Actors, for example, will have plenty of favorites in the BP nominees to choose from, Avatar not being among them. Avatar does have support from some Producers, some Directors and a lot of the tech craft people (Sound and Visual Effects). Hurt Locker has some Producers, some Directors, Actors, Writers, cinematographers, editors and sound designers.

You can go down the list of potential Best Picture nominees, but for my money, Bastards represents the widest appeal across the various branches. It's biggest hurdle is that it's perceived to be TOO violent by the older crowd who might also think that it's trying to poke fun at WWII. If I were Harvey at this point, I'd make my campaign about changing the minds of THOSE voters.

NATHANIEL R said...

I agree with Graham that Basterds has a pretty solid claim to appeal across several branches.

But you never know about actors. Just because Avatar isn't really about the acting doesn't mean that they won't vote for it. If anything I think actors are more susceptible to groupthink and public opinion than the other branches are. They certainly don't vote for pure craft all that often.