Sunday, January 24, 2010

Supporting Actressness ala StinkyLulu: The Question of "The Coaster"

Yesterday was the deadline for Academy Award voters to submit their nomination ballots and, perhaps because of that fact, I find myself thinking about what appears to be the single remaining mystery about this year's contest for Best Supporting Actress: who will be the category's "fifth" nominee?

Yes, a nomination/win for Mo'Nique seems inevitable, as do nominations for Vera Farmiga and Anna Kendrick. And with momentum for the women of Nine seemingly stalled (along with everything else about that film), it seems nearly certain that Julianne Moore'll be wrassling with the women of Inglorious Basterds for that special invitation to this year's ceremony. But I can't shake the feeling that this year's Supporting Actress category feels especially ripe for what I call a "coaster" nominee (my term for when a surprise Supporting Actress nomination comes as part of the general sweep of nominations for a particular film).
I have spent upwards of four years thinking seriously of such Supporting Actressness over at StinkyLulu. And after many a Smackdown and Blogathon, I have come to realize that many (if not most) years arrive with a "coaster" nomination for a performance that would almost certainly not have otherwise made the cut had it not been part of one of that year's nomination sweepers. Often such coasters are a delight (like Joan Cusack in Working Girl, Abigail Breslin's Little Miss Sunshine, or last year's Taraji P. Henson in The Curious Case of Benjamin Button) but, perhaps more cynically, coasters also serve to boost a juggernaut's total nomination haul. (Love ya, Queen Latifah, but you know what I'm saying.) I mean, Gloria Stuart's 1997 nomination made for a great Oscarphile story but does anyone really think it would have materialized had Titanic not been the nomination-hog that it was?

Which brings me to a potential 2009 "coaster" nomination that seems entirely plausible:
Just think: With her existing Oscar cred, and given the major campaign for her Supporting Actressness already underway, Sigourney seems perfectly poised to be "the one" to break Avatar into one of the acting categories. She also appears ideally situated to break the glass nomination ceiling for the kind of techno-hybrid acting (part traditional acting, part voicework, part motion capture) that's increasingly part of any seriously working actor's repertoire. And imagine the publicity -- both for the film and for the broadcast. It's a perfect storm of possibility and the phenomenon of the Supporting Actress "coaster" seems only to better the odds.

Yet, to be absolutely clear, I am NOT expecting Sigourney Weaver to be a "coaster" nominee for Avatar. But, all things considered, I would not be at all surprised to hear her name called in two Tuesdays, either. And I'm near certain at least one "coaster" nominee will be part of the final roster of nominees.

But what do YOU think, TFE readers?

Who do YOU think will be
this year's "coaster" nominee in
the Supporting Actress category?

65 comments:

John T said...

I think it'll be Samantha Morton on the "Coaster" train, though you make a solid case for Weaver. Like Weaver, she's been invited to the show several times without a win, and like Weaver, she's in a film in contention to make the ten Best Picture list. She also has the benefit of being a war widow, a favorite at the Oscars. In this category, I'd probably rank the following ten in likelihood of getting the final nomination:

1. Mo'Nique
2. Anna Kendrick
3. Vera Farmiga
4. Samantha Morton
5. Julianne Moore
6. Marion Cotillard
7. Penelope Cruz
8. Diane Kruger
9. Melanie Laurent
10. Sigourney Weaver

StinkyLulu said...

But Morton's nomination would be on its own merits -- certainly a surprise and possibly more of a breakthrough, almost, given the lack of awards traction for The Messenger this year.

I think the most probable "coasters" are the women of Basterds, depending on that film's general luck with nominations...

Arkaan said...

Moore.

Lara said...

I'd be surprised if Sigourney Weaver makes it. All the examples you've mentioned had another actor (usually a strong one, either performance or name-credit wise) to hang on:
Joan Cusack - Sig Weaver and Melanie (and, wow, I forgot her last name and am too lazy to look it up)
Abigail Breslin - Alan Arkin
Taraji P. Henson - Brad Pitt
Queen Latifah - Catherine Zeta Jones (and Renee Zellweger?)
Gloria Stuart - Kate Winslet.

Sigourney Weaver would have to make it on her own. And if she were still in her heyday I wouldn't doubt it for a second that she can make it, but I'm not so sure today.
My bet is either Diane Kruger who has Christoph Waltz or Maggie Gyllenhaal who has Jeff Bridges.

mrripley said...

I feel those last 2 spots are moore and gyllenhaal.

StinkyLulu said...

@Lara: I think you're right, if we consider acting nominations only in relation to other acting nominations. (Which given the way nominations happen might be the right way to think about it.)

But some might say Ian McKellan's nomination in Supporting for LOTR gave valuable prestige to a film that was reaping a huge nomination tally in every category other than the acting ones. Plus, the so-called "snub" of Andy Serkis for the same series remains an open point of contention, especially following Pitt's nomination for Button. So, I see a number of reasons why a Sigourney nomination COULD happen, even if I don't really think it will.

For Your Speculation said...

I think Crazy Heart will land in Best Picture and Bridges will bring in Gyllenhaal as well.

coffeefortwo said...

The difference between Sigourney Weaver and the other coasters you note above is that Weaver hasn't factored into any of the significant precursors. Most everyone you mention showed up among the nominees for the Globes and/or the SAGs. Hell, Stuart even won a SAG (in a tie with eventual Oscar winner Kim Basinger). A nomination for Weaver would truly be a shock. That noted, it's not at all inconceivable. If Avatar is strong enough that voters try to find some actor to mark on their ballots, it's going to be Weaver, no matter how much some observers long for it to be Zoe Saldana.

I agree with the others above that place their chips on Maggie Gyllenhaal. I also think Diane Kruger might also make the cut at the expense of one of the excellent "Up in the Air" contenders. Fair or not (I vote for "not"), that film seems to fading out of the Oscar picture all together.

Anonymous said...

Great point about Weaver, and concerning the fact Weaver is on her own, I've got the solution:

Saldana: Best Actress nominee (there'r a campaign after all, and I'm sure everybody won't very pissed if nominations morning it will be discovered Mirren or Blunt would have left outside)
Weaver: Best Supporting Actress nominee

and in this way AVATAR will have TITANIC same situation: two actresses nominated and the leading man overlooked...

anyway, if the girls don't receive any oscar nominations, they will have pretty surely the saturn awards as reward, sort of...

mirko

PS: it's incredible how NINE's steam is vanishing...I'm not meaning it's a bad thing :D

StinkyLulu said...

I'm fascinated to see the surge for Gyllenhaal (largely because I found the performance, like the film as a whole, to be unremarkable).

Do we think it matters that the original campaign (ie. what was printed on FYC screeners) pitched Gyllenhaal as "Lead"?

Faux said...

I'm still thinking about Penelope Cruz be nominated. In the race, they don't care about Nine flops but acting. You have to think about her two brilliant performances (Broken Embraces and Nine) and they would like recognize her. It will be alla Matt Damon. Remember also Cate Blanchett year, when everybody said Blanchett couldn't make the cut for Elizabeth: The Golden Age.
You must remember the Actors branch in AMPAS likes versatility, and there are much about star power, so... Marion is not a lost cause yet.
I'm not so sure for Julianne Moore this time but next year. AMPAS members I think they will not show so much love for A Single Man, and Samantha Morton is probably in route for her THIRD nomination (it says a lot).
For me:
1. Mo'Nique
2. Vera Farmiga
3. Anna Kendrick
--
4. Penelope Cruz
5. Samantha Morton
6. Marion Cotillard
7. Julianne Moore
--
8. Melanie Laurent
9. Diane Kruger
10. NO ONE

Colin Low said...

But neither McKellen nor Serkis would have been "coasters" in any shape or form, even if they did boost their movie's nomination tallies: they gave cleanly the most acclaimed performances of their respective films. And for Avatar, that's split between Weaver (acting veteran) and Saldana (limelighted full-CGI actress). Neither will amass enough, I think, though I'd certainly prefer Saldana over Weaver.

adam k. said...

My money's on Morton and (maybe) Gyllenhaal. I'm not feeling the Moore love (although she can totally "coast" on Colin Firth). I think the Nine girls will scuttle each other now that they're essentially competing for the same spot. Other possible coasters would be the inglorious basterds (Laurent & Kruger), coasting on their film and on Christoph Waltz.

Weaver is also a distinct possibility. But wasn't that glass ceiling broken with Pitt's Button nod last year? Weaver's essentially doing the same thing. It would only be a true breakthrough if someone were nommed for exclusively motion-captured acting.

In any case, this category is very fluid right now. It will most likely NOT end up with five of what should seem like the top 6 (Mo'Nique, Kendrick, Farmiga, Cruz, Moore, Kruger).

Juno101 said...

I'm just gonna go out on a couple limbs and say its gonna be either Mariah Carey or Paula Patton.

Jeremy Helligar said...

Samantha Morton!

Anonymous said...

Diane Kruger seems to be riding a wave at the moment and she has done some major campaigning at every IB event.

StinkyLulu said...

@ADAM: I agree that Pitt's nomination did break that ceiling, quite stealthily. But he wasn't blue, so I'm still curious which hybrid performance'll be next.

@JUNO: A Mariah nomination would be interesting. (Though she might have fouled things with her drunky acceptance at Palm Springs.)

Anonymous said...

I hope hope hope Marion gets nom'd.

She gave two of the best supporting performances of the year.
She stole the scenes from Johnny Depp and Christian Bale.
Then went onto show up two acting legends Day Lewis and Dench and outshine some of the biggest women in Hollywood, Kidman, Loren, Cruz, Hudson.
She's fabulous and beautiful and a bloody good actress. I love cotillard!

DJ said...

I'm feeling Diane Kruger. And I don't think Moore has that fourth spot locked up at all. I'd say there are two spots left wide open at this point.

1. Mo
2. Kendrick
3. Farmiga
4. Kruger
5. Morton/Moore/Cotillard

Andrew R. said...

I think the 5 nominees will be the 3 obvious ones, plus Moore and Laurent.

Weaver is my 6th choice.

Andrew: Encore Entertainment said...

Though I know I'm alone on this, I say that Kendrick is a coaster for Up In the Air. True, I just don't get the success of the film at all - but had it not turned into the huge success I don't see how she would have ever factored into the race. If An Education had become more popular I could see Rosamund as a perfect [deserved] coaster nod, but that's not happening.

Just for argument's sake though Stinky, who'd you say was the coaster in 2001? I'd say Connelly who I loathed, but would that be the only time a coaster won?

Adam M. said...

Weaver shouldn't even be in the conversation, IMHO.

Taraji, Ms. Breslin, the Queen (Latifah), and Gloria Stuart all had legitimate pre-cursor traction before their Oscar noms. Avatar hasn't been recognized for its acting chops ANYWHERE (not even a SAG ensemble nod... and no, Saldana and the Black Reel Awards do not count).

This is how I think the race looks:

1. Mo'Nique
2. Kendrick
3. Farmiga
***
4. Moore
5. Cotillard
***
6. Morton
7. Kruger
8. Cruz
9. Gyllenhaal (by way of Bridges)

I don't think Nine is dead. It won't make the BP 10, but it should grab a few tech nods and, I believe, one for Cotillard as well.

Victor said...

@ Andrew:
You're not alone thinking that Kendrick is the coaster. Anyone that played her part would be nominated. Its the role, not the performance. That everyone around her is doing good work helps a lot - George and Vera are great, as is the screenplay.

StinkyLulu said...

Remember: The idea of the coaster has little to with merit (good or bad), but mostly to do with a performance that might otherwise go unnoticed becoming a contender because of the level of sentiment/momentum surrounding the film. And such "coasting" certainly doesn't have to start with Oscar.

For example (@Andrew), I'd definitely agree that Kendrick began Awards season "coasting" on the heat surrounding the film, though with NYSFC things shifted a little.

Farmiga and Cotillard are definitely, right now (and like Dench, McDormand, & Bates before them), among the short list of Supporting Actresses who earn some degree of category heat just by showing up in a film. Cruz -- both because she just won and because she's perceived to be a leading lady -- is a bit of a wild card.

In contrast, Julianne Moore and Sigourney both carry what JohnT (above) called "war widow" star credibility, and do so with Award-show friendly ease. Based on her nomination history, Morton should be in this zone too but she's a bit of an iconoclast.

SO at this point, I'm thinking that we're looking at the field in this way:
1: Mo'Nique
2: Kendrick
3: Farmiga
4: "Coaster" &/or "Quality Sneaker" (ie. Morton)
5: "Coaster"


(And, from my point of view, the most notable "coaster" to win is possibly Beatrice Straight in NETWORK. She's great but, if that film hadn't become a phenomenon, her work would have likely never registered on the Oscar radar.)

Adam M. said...

*Addendum:

I forgot that Harv switched Laurent to supporting actress. If the voters put her there, I think she's either 6 or 7. But I bet the category confusion leaves her unmentioned come nomination day.

Also, I think the #5 slots for Actress and Supporting Actor are also up for grabs and, potentially, much more interesting than the Supporting Actress race. Especially Supporting Actor. Obviously Waltz takes home the gold, with nods for Harrelson, Tucci, and Mckay, but who comes next? Capaldi for In the Loop maybe? Wouldn't that be fantastic? Or Molina for An Education? Or Schneider for Bright Star? Or Damon for Invictus?

I don't buy that Plummer and Mirren have both of these races wrapped up. I guess we'll see.

John O'Neil said...

I think Diane Kruger certainly wants a nomination the most. She's been at nearly every awards show and, apparently, many of the screenings for her film as well.

Sam Dodsworth said...

Hopefully Mariah Carey can get some recognition if Precious has a lot of support with the Academy

Pf_Iggy said...

I'd be happy with a nod for Weaver. It could translate into more presence in big roles in movies (in an ideal world). I don't think it's going to happen, though.

I'm not sure if I get what a "coaster" means. Someone who gets nominated because her/his movie gets a lot of nominations so that somehow her/his name gets ticked almost automatically? If that's the case, I think it'll be one of the women in Basterds. The ensemble win at the SAG awards might point in that direction. No other movie seems to have the power to get enough nominations to also drag the players to the Kodak Theatre. The only one could be Avatar (apart from Up in the Air, but we're already counting on the actresses), but it doesn't seem so strong in the acting categories.

I might be the only one, but I still think Nine will get a handful of nominations. If that's finally the case, I think Cruz still has slight chance. Hers is a case for study, imo. Not very good performances in English for years. Then, Volver, Vicky Cristina Barcelona, Elegy and Nine happen in a row, and now it seems she's somehow taken for granted (?) and dismissed as a contender because it's the same kind of role as last year. Except for the fact that she sings, she dances and pulls an Italian accent. Anyway, I don't think a nomination for her will happen. Things would be quite different if Nine was making money.

Apart from that, I think the Oscars in the acting categories this year will be fully American, as opposed to the previous years, which means I think even Waltz isn't as safe as it seems right now.

Paul Outlaw said...

If there's (another) coaster in this category this year, I believe that she will come from either Precious, Avatar or Basterds.

If the year had turned out differently, she'd be coming from Nine, An Education, Pippa Lee or The Lovely Bones.

Up in the Air is already this year's winner in the coaster sweepstakes.

Anonymous said...

I say Diane Kruger coasts in.

sammyray said...

Weaver absolutely does not deserve anything for that performance, which was barely memorable.

Zoe Saldana was amazing, however. She deserves some consideration.

Jen said...

No one will get nominated from Avatar. Only actors get to decide on these things-- and despite Avatar featuring heavily at BAFTA, not a single actor even made the long list.

If anyone 'sneaks' in without precursors, it'll be Samantha Morton or Maggie Gyllenhaal. Surprise acting nominees always tend to go to smaller movies.

Evan said...

Weaver has gotten so little mention, I think that if there is a coaster, it couldn't be from Avatar.

Like others have said, I think that Kruger would be more likely to be the "coaster" since IB promises to get a good 6 or 7 nominations, if not more.

I'm also not sold on the fact that it won't be Cotillard. She and Cruz, whose win last year might work against her, were the only good things about Nine (except for art direction). If it gets any praise at all, I have a hard time imagining why one of the actresses wouldn't either.

Lara Croft: Tomb Raider said...

DIANE KRUGER

The Basterds ensemble has been recognized twice and she'll be nominated. She was nominated yesterday for SAG.

Clarence said...

Ugh I will cry if Marion Cotillard doesn't receive a nomination :'(. I mean my head is already messed up from banging my head on the wall after Sandra Bullock won the SAG over Meryl Streep (Not that I hate her, in fact I love her...just not deserving of any award over Streep). Sigh. From what I can see, I think the nomination should go as follows: Monique, Kendrick, Farmiga, Kruger, and Cotillard.

coffeefortwo said...

@StinkyLulu: You note some fascination with the late surge for Gyllenhaal. I think that largely comes from the overwhelming certainty that Bridges is going to win, which will cause enough actors reward his costar with a nomination, in much the same way that Ethan Hawke slipped in to Best Supporting Actor for "Training Day" at least in part because he was seen as serving as selfless part of a tandem, the batting practice pitcher who kept lobbing balls easily over the plate for Denzel Washington smack over the fence. I'm not arguing that Bridges' work is similarly showy, just that I think that enough voters in the actors' branch recognize that the great lead performances need some solid supporting work, and they'll look to Gyllenhaal for that reason.

Also, I don't think the initial push for Lead will hurt her too much, even if it's still on the screeners. They made the switch fairly quickly and have plenty of time to correct in the FYC ads and other efforts.

Pf_Iggy said...

Oops, the definition of "coaster" is clearly explained in the post. Sorry, I should've read it better.

Anonymous said...

Um what channel can I watch the annoucement of the oscar nominations?

And here are my top contenders
Mo'Nique
Anna Kendrick
Vera Farmiga
Julianne Moore
Melanie Laurent
Diane Krugar
Samantha Morton
Marion Cotillard
Penelope Cruz
Sagourney Weaver
Judi Dench

Ángel Ramos said...

I'm thinking on Maggie Gyllenhaal

NATHANIEL R said...

i am worried about Maggie Gyllenhaal too. I think it's one of her worst performances -- not terrible but rather shapeless given how much she has to work with. it strikes me as lazy work which i hate saying about her since she's been so incredible in other things.

it's interesting that supporting actress is still this confusing but I'm with Pf_Iggy that NINE might not be finished. We have to think about the fact that NINE did incredibly well early on... and with voting bodies that should theoretically overlap with the general consensus.

it's a weird weird issue. Unless voters were voting for it sight unseen (which is always possible) but Oscar voters do that too

Vertigo's Psycho said...

Based strictly on her performance, I hope Cotillard makes it, if Nine is deemed supporting by voters (I haven't seem her in Public Enemies yet, but it sounds like she's nomination-worthy in that, too). Don't know if the quality of her work in Nine can overcome the adverse reaction to the film, though (I think the nearly universal thumbs down has probably killed off her chances for a Best Actress nod, but maube she can still deservedly sneek in here).

Pablete said...

At this point, I believe Marion Cotillard is the only spoiler here. She could be the main supporter of the Kate-Winslet-case in the leading/supporting actress categories this year.

R. said...

Why not Rosamund Pike?

John D. said...

1. Mo'Nique
2. Anna Kendrick
3. Vera Farmiga
4. Melanie Laurent
5. Judi Dench (never underestimate the Academy's love for Dench)

Andrew R. said...

You know, Supporting Actress may be a lock win, but the last 2 nominations will be interesting. Contenders: Laurent, Kruger, Weaver, Morton, Moore, Cruz, Dench, Cotillard, Gylennhall, Carey, Patton, Saldana...eep.

BUT! Most of these women have no chance (they're computer generated/missing precursors/gave drunken award speeches/not that good really/in a bad film/have impossible to spell last names/a mix of these.)

So, it's down to Laurent, Kruger, Moore, and possibly Morton. And I choose Moore since they love her, and Laurent because she was better than Kruger and Morton-especially Morton.

OtherRobert said...

If Nine is still in contention for some major nods, I could see Judi Dench as the coast nominee. I still feel if the film was received better, that honor would belong to Kate Hudson for singing the song that still very well may win Best Original Song on the big night. As it wasn't, Dench could sidle on in with a slew of tech noms (costume, sound, screenplay, and the like) and a Best Picture nomination.

I'm hoping it's Weaver, as she does make my personal line-up for Avatar on the strength of her performance. Shoot, I'd probably toss in CCH Pounder in a less crowded year, but her part's too small. Though maybe I could play like the Academy and give her a year in review nomination since she also did strong work in Orphan. But I digress.

Cameron could possibly push Weaver in over one of the Nine actresses, blocking Laurent/Kruger (I don't see both nominated) from getting in.

CanadianKen said...

I haven't seen UP IN THE AIR yet but I get the feeling most of the precursor buzz is attached to KENDRICK. Making me think FARMIGA's going to continue her string of praised but unnominated performances. I also figure the Jeff Bridges tidal wave (the one that's going to prevent Colin Firth from the Oscar he's earned this year) will pull Maggie Gyllenhaal into the mix too.
Making the likely nominees:
Mo'Nique
Anna Kendrick
Maggie Gyllenhaal
Diane Kruger
Samantha Morton
I love Julianne Moore but not so much in A SINGLE MAN. They should have used a Brit actress like Miranda Richardson or Emily Watson. Moore's hold on the English accent is just too touch-and-go. Category confusion will probably scuttle Melanie Laurent's chances. But I'd love to see her sneak in as the fifth Best Actress nominee behind Streep,Bullock,Sidibe and Mulligan).
If I could choose the five supporting nominees this year, they'd be:
Mo'Nique "Precious"
Mimi Kennedy "In the Loop"
Paula Patton "Precious"
Maria Carey "Precious"
Jill Hennessy "Lymelife"

Adam M. said...

@Jen - Morton got a good deal of precursor traction. A win from San Diego, a nom from BFCA, and noms from St. Louis, DC, and Houston. And a Spirit nod. Gyllenhaal only has a nom from Dallas critics.

@CanadianKen - Not a chance in heck's heck that Vera Farmiga will be snubbed.

@Nat - Are you implying that Nine should be done, or would be done if voters actually watched it? Because I do recall you enjoying it (a B+ at first, then downgraded to a B), and you even gave Cotillard one of your personal nods. That's actually why I think Nine isn't done (and shouldn't be, for that matter). The most disenchanted by the film were critics, who I truly believe jumped at a fun and easy crucifixion. Guild members were actually quite enthusiastic until the reviews came out. So if Oscar voters do bother to watch Nine, I bet they'll like it more than they'd expect to (which could even help its chances), and they'll definitely vote Cotillard and maybe Cruz toward contention.

Bryan said...

Come on, people. I know that we like to see snubs and surprises, but Mo'nique, Anna Kendrick, and Vera Farminga are done deals.

I say they take one lady from Nine and one lady from Inglourious Basterds. Probably Cotillard and Kruger, respectively.

RC said...

I was going to say something about Maggie, but 49 comments in, It's not a fresh comment at all.

Looks like I'm not alone.

Jane said...

Avatar just lost PGA. I don't think it really has enough support to anything beyond the predicted techs/director/picture nods.

A N D R E W said...

I think these three are safe

Mo'Nique
Vera Farmiga
Anna Kendrick

then Moore takes the next spot.

and then the final spot belongs to Morton, one of the Inglorious Basterds gals or one of the Nine gals. I so want Marion to get in! She would probably be a safe bet if she was pushed supporting :'( sigh. DAMN YOU WEINSTEIN. But for now, I'm predicting

Penelope Cruz
Vera Farmiga
Anna Kendrick
Mo'Nique
Julianne Moore

NATHANIEL R said...

Adam, i'm not implying that NINE would be over if the Academy watched it... just that whether or not people were watching it at all and what they think about when they're watching it now given the floppage and the harsh criticism is an issue. a hard to read issue.

I firmly believe that people were out for blood because you have to have a sacrificial lamb in the Christmas glut. I know it's cynical but i guarantee that the reviews would have been kinder (at least by a small margin) with the original Thanksgiving release. It's like GI Joe opening after Transformers. Critics were ruthless with the giant robots and then unexpectedly kind to JOE. (fun. silly. for kids), even though it's total nonsensical garbage. I didn't see Transformers but I'd be surprised if it's much worse than GI Joe.

These weird chain reactions happen based on what people liked before what they expect to like now and what other people say.

i guess i feel like groupthink can cause all sorts of weird things to happen.

Why did NINE receive a BFCA Best Picture nomination if no press liked it? EVERYONE has been vicious but the BFCA are made up of journalists. So who voted for it that than wrote scathing reviews?

And might people who secretly love it but are shamed by the reviews / box office still vote for it?

Graham Greenlee said...

I'm still saying this category is:
Marion Cotillard
Vera Farmiga
Anna Kendrick
Melanie Laurent
Mo'Nique

Nine is kind of dead in the water, but I'm amongst a good sized group of people that really didn't like Nine but thought Cotillard was terrific with the shit material she had to work with.

Laurent would be the "coaster" nominee in this case.

Aaron said...

Mo'Nique, Farmiga, Kendrick...locks...


...and I agree with what someone said earlier that the Academy will take a Nine girl and an IB girl...I'd say Cotillard makes it off the strength of her performance (She is hands down the most praised of that film, and she appears to be very well liked)....

...the last spot will go to either Laurent or Kruger...I'd say Kruger, since she has actually been present at the awards ceremonies leading up to the Oscars...I personally prefer Laurent...

...I saw A Single Man, and Julianne Moore's performance was totally forgettable IMO. Yes, the Academy likes her, but ASM is NOT her strongest performance and I do not think they are dying to give her an Oscar yet, considering it is Mo'Nique's to lose....Samantha Morton could make it, and very well might, but I have a hard time seeing another nomination for The Messenger, other than Harrelson.

So...

Cotillard
Farmiga
Kendrick
Kruger
Mo'Nique

Adam M. said...

@Aaron - I agree about Julianne Moore, and then some. I actually thought she DETRACTED from the restrained poetry of Firth's performance. She was irritatingly affected and shrill, which is actually how I find her most of the time. A highly overrated performer who always seems like she's PERFORMING. I think her recent guest stint on '30 Rock' might actually be her best work IMHO.

(shields self from Nat's bloodthirsty and judgmental glare)

ThaDropDownBear said...

Altho weaver sneaking in there would be quite sensible (well...err, you know what I mean by sensible right?) Im fairly certain that one (hey maybe even both depending how much meth was around) of the Basterd women will coast on in. They loved off Slumdog Millionaire last year but there were no coaster acting noms (maybe Oscar is coming to his senses? Kind of?). Myabe theyll start measuring coaster noms on the strength of the performance at least a bit more.

Mike said...

I loved Julianne Moore's performance in A Single Man, and very much hope she's nominated (although its looking less and less likely). I found Anna Kendrick completely uninspiring in Up in the Air, and think she has no businees holding one of the locked spots.

My predictions: Mo'Nique/Kendrick/Farmiga/Kruger/Gyllenhal

Sebastian said...

If anyone's "coasting" in "Avatar" in supporting actress this year, it should be Zoe Saldona and not Sigourney Weaver. But in a close race between the "Nine" ladies salvaging a nomination between them and the "Basterds" ladies maybe being victims of category confusion, I think voters will go for none of them and pick Samantha Morton instead for slot #5. Mo'Nique, Kendrick, Farmiga, Moore, and Morton.

NATHANIEL R said...

Adam M. -- you're funny but I didn't love Julianne Moore in A Single Man either (though it was fun to see her guffaw).you'll notice she didn't make my top 12 for supporting actress this year.

Bill_the_Bear said...

Can there be more than one "coaster" nomination?

The thing is, I see Kendrick as being a "coaster." "Up in the Air" is bound to get noms for Best Picture and for Reitman, Clooney and Farmiga; Kendrick would seem to be coasting in on their coattails.

Nevertheless, I think StinkyLulu is right, and that Mo'Nique, Farmiga and Kendrick will get nominated. Who will be the others?

I somehow don't see any "Avatar" actors getting nominated; I think AMPAS would be too resistant to motion-capture for that...so "no" to Weaver.

Can Moore coast in on Firth's coattails? I loved "A Single Man," but I found Moore's acting to be not quite up to it. Visually, she was great; the wandering accent, though, brought her down.

I can't really comment on Morton, not having seen "The Messenger," which hasn't played Montréal. (I'm not sure if it's opened anywhere in Canada.) But...is there enough buzz about a film few have seen to bring her in?

I can see Gyllenhall coasting in on Jeff Bridges' coattails...particularly since it's looking more and more as if he'll be taking home the Best Actor Oscar.

I think the only "Nine" actress who might make it would be Cotillard; nobody else has the buzz.

Of the "IB" women, I think Kruger would be more likely to make it than Laurent.

My reading of the entrails, as to how the voters will go, would be:
Mo'Nique
Farmiga,
Kendrick,
Gyllenhall
Kruger

Personally, I'd rather see Cotillard knock Kendrick out of that lineup...but, much as I disliked Kendrick's performance, I fear that she'll get a nomination.

Beau said...

I think you make a great point with your "coaster" theory. I think you are correct in your assertion that their will be a nominee of this type.

I'm going to throw out a thought that does follow your theory...kind of.

I think there is a strong possibility that the nominee will be Betty White for The Proposal. She won't coast on the popularity of that particular movie, but I do think she could coast to the nominee on the popularity of a few things.
1) SAG Lifetime Achievement Award (I know it has never brought anyone a nomination before, but this could be a first.)
2) SANDRA BULLOCK - she has spoken very fondly of Betty White several times in the last few months.
3) She has been around a long time and she has worked with a lot of people.
4) She is the best part of The Proposal and she is very funny.

Like you, I am not saying that this will happen. But, I think it could.

Jesus Alonso said...

re. Weaver

if she gets in, Mo'nique can kiss her Oscar goodbye.

StinkyLulu said...

You know, Jesus, you're probably right. Yipes.

Jesus Alonso said...

yes, and while I adore Weaver SO MUCH and feel she should already have two Oscars by now, maybe Aliens and Death and the Maiden, it would be a bittersweet victory since it would be more just another brick in the Avatar wall of prizes that would sweep the Oscars like a tsunami... and the character she's playing is just a mix of Diane Fossey (Gorillas in the Mist) with Ripley (Alien series). That's something to think about. I'm just happy Avatar brought her to the spotlight again, and maybe, maybe would ignite her persona so in a couple of years she would win her Oscar at last.