You've only got two days left to enter the 4th edition of The Film Experience's favorite game. Last year we had trouble with pointage but this year there's an excel wiz who'll be tabulating for us so we're giving it one final go. How correct is your guesswork when you're predicting the Oscars nearly an entire year in advance? Without the benefit of precursors, movie screenings, reviews or buzz. It's all about your hunches. Are you thinking... Helen, Anne, Sarah, Cameron & Imelda? Or maybe Chloe, Renee, Reese, Michelle & Hilary? How's about Carey, Keira, Noomi, Jodie & Jennifer. Any five-pack combo is possible before anyone has seen the films.
Click here for instructions if you'd like to play along.How the points are allocating is still being discussed behind the scenes but it'll be somewhat similar to how it was in year's past: festival showings, precursor attention and box office definitely win you points ... it all adds up.
Will you be playing? (More predictions in other categories coming tonight)
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28 comments:
Here's who I picked!
Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine
Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone
Robin Wright Penn, The Conspirator
Anne Hathaway would have been my next choice: it was between her and Williams.
It would be interesting if the 3 Brokeback stars get nominated this year.
That being said, I do think that Kidman will be nominated.
Ok, this was my strategy. I went back over the past ten years to see all the nominees for Best Actress. I looked at each year with this criteria: who was nominated for the first time? who was a previous winner? who was a previous nominee? who starred in a comedy? who was being directed by someone who got his other stars awards? who was in an adaptation? who was in a biopic?
Yes, I actually did all the math, averaged everything out, and came up with my nominees. Because I'm crazy.
Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
(previous nominee, lighter fare, original)
Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole (previous nominee, adaptation)
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone (new nom, adaptation)
Hilary Swank, Betty Anne Waters (real person, previous winner, original)
Robin Wright, The Conspirator
(real person, new nom, original, Redford scored noms for Mary Tyler Moore, Paul Scofield, Judd Hirsch, WIN for Timothy Hutton)
Wake up, Nathaniel! Nicole shouldn't complain about Sandra's win. She won the Oscar for exactly the same reason Sandra did. :)
I think Kidman is spot-on for the role. As long as the movie doesn't get too overwrought (or feel too stagey), this should be a MerylStreep/Doubt kind of slam-dunk for her.
Where do i send the email?
I don't know how good I am at predicting (early in advance), because it's my first time. I did no math, I just tried to get to know all possibilities, and let my gut feeling talk to me. I picked
Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
Anne Hathaway, Love & Other Drugs
Imelda Staunton, Another Year
Naomi Watts, Mother & Child
Robin Wright Penn, The Conspirator
btw will we discuss other acting categories, too?
I know the contest only exists for best actress.
But I tried to make up my mind about all acting categories (and I know Nathaniel will predict, well, all 24). Who else did?
I going to do a deal with the devil this year: I NEED TO SEE NICOLE KIDMAN NOMINATED AGAIN TO BE HAPPY T_T
I am VERY interested in what the concensus will be this year.Last year there were 'obvious' contenders-Christie & Blanchett, Streep, Winslet & Jolie, and Streep & Mulligan.But it seems there are none this year.
I went for the 'newbie' (Lawrence), 'it's time' (Wright), 'star' (Hathaway), 'great role/perf' (Williams) and 'horror scenario' (Swank-that way, if I'll have to suffer through her nomination at least I'll get points:))
I also hope and pray that Kidman is nominated again, but I didn't want to jinx her.But I suspect she'll be a pretty popular choice.
obv, that should be previous WINNER for Kidman
i don't think i could pray some some over indulged beautiful rich actress to get an oscar nomination when Iran is on the verge of getting nuclear weapons. that said, pulling for nicole.
@ WalteR: I did that last year getting averages ofr foreign, previos winners ans nopminees, first timers, directors, genres, best pics, etc...
It didn´t work for me... I hope it does for you...
This year I decides to just hear intuition.
@Klemen -- i'm super interested to hear the consensus too. I have not been looking at most of these ballots as they come in. I'm saving them until they deadline passes and then I will study. Craziness!
it really does seem like it could go any which way.
I really wanna see Emily Watson get nominated for Oranges & Sunshine, but I didn't risk including her in my predictions; that woman deserves and Oscar!
@Yavor, every actress but Sandra Bullock deserves an Oscar, I mean EVERY ONE.
@Ángel, that's true haha :) but I do want Watson to score it big, she's quite a something, I think she needs a BIG director again in order to get more recognition.
I'm also very curious how I AM LOVE will turn out since I've been watching the trailer all day everyday :-D
and if Tamara Drewe turns out to be good, Gemma Arterton might be our dark horse, considering that her other two films will be total block busters and she's gonna gain recognition.
I would love to see Nicole get nominated again...
and I already miss Meryl!!!
Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
Jennifer Connelly, What's Wrong With Virginia?
Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone
Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine
My logic?
Bening--long overdue, respected in actress in awards-baity, highly topical role. Am curious too to see how Mother and Child will play out (and category placement for both her and Naomi Watts, and her and Julianne in Kids)
Connelly--previous winner back to form.
Kidman--previous winner and Oscar loves emotionally distraught women who have lost a child. Broadway cred as well (a la Doubt)
Lawrence--the newbie in critically acclaimed picture--"little film that could"--a la Precious or An Education
Williams--well reviewed movie. Indie cred. highly respected young actress. overdue sentiment surrounding Heath Ledger (and I don't mean to disparage her...everyone knows that kind of stuff comes into play).
I'm really curious to see Natalie Portman in Black Swan...I didn't include her simply for the fact that the film may be too dark/edgy/weird for the Academy, and the role isn't an obvious tailor fit like Rourke was in Aronofsky's The Wrestler. And I will never predict Swank again after that Amelia disaster last year.
I've never done this, but having read your blog for some time now, I bet some of them will fit the following formula:
I want you(r) ugly
I want you(r) disease
(...)
I want your drama
(...)
I want your psycho
your vertigo stick...
Just because sometimes the relationship actress/oscar is such a bad romance.
anon 6:29 --just click on the instructions page for full details.
the email is film experience (at) gmail (dot) com
I know people want to see Robin Wright Penn get a nom, but is she really overdue? i cant remember one thing with her that made me think this is a Oscar preformance.
My picks were sent!!!
I can't wait to see the collective predictions.
And then I can't until six or so months from now to see which nomination one or none of us saw coming (Page, Leo, Bullock "Blind Side"). But, I have a feeling that might not happen this year.
Klemen's right, though, there are no obvious contenders. However, there are a lot of "heavy hitters," so I suspect that there are going to be a lot of duplicate ballots like there was two years ago.
As far as Robin Wright, she isn't overdue in the sense that she's been overlooked, but she has put in a quarter of a century into the industry, surrounded herself with some great talent and take her craft very seriously. She's the title character in a beloved cult classic and, for a time, had her pick of scripts after Forrest Gump came out. One could see she was left off the Gump train as far as nominations were concerned. I wouldn't. But, what I would say is that her performance (along with Pfeiffer and to a lesser extent Zellweger) in "White Oleander" was pretty amaze-ballz. I'm surprised people don't talk about it more.
I decided to go with her as my wild-card pick. She's probably the least likeliest to get nominated out of my five, but she's got a few things going for that may or may not pan out: Robert Redford directing and it's a period piece (which there aren't a lot of this year).
I tried watching "Sorry Haters" to see if she's done anything recently that shows any promise, but it doesn't seem she has. She has only blown my mind once, which was in "Oleander," where she played an unhinged, jealous alcoholic who latches onto Christianity like a life raft. There doesn't seem to be much in that role that carries over into Mary Surratt, so her taking up one of my slots isn't so much a calculated risk, but wishful thinking. Also, I think she got likeablity points from finally severing marital ties with Penn. And, we can't pretend that sometimes b.s. like this doesn't factor into the academy's minds.
I'd rather "waste" a chance on her than on Hillary Swank anyway. I like Penn. Even if Swank gets nominated and I didn't guess her, it's more satisfying to me that she doesn't get nominated and I didn't bother with her to begin with.
By the way:
Bening (Mother), Hathaway, Kidman, Lawrence, Wright
It's somewhat of a wish list more than anything.
Bening may be the Streep of 2009 and Winslet of 2008: yes, but, which movie. I was wrong both years, where I unshrewdly decided to go with the LESS baity role. This year, it's ambiguous. The best I could come up with was that "Mother" was "more serious," therefore "more baity." That was my base logic. But, is Watts the star? Nathaniel gave it a C or C+ which is not an encouraging omen.
Hathway. Supporting? "Word" has it she's the best thing about it. It has some baityness with the Parkinson's. I left her out with "Rachel Getting Married," so I don't want to miss out this year, considering how quickly I've become a fan. But, then, this film could turn out to be crap.
Kidman. I love how so many of us don't want to jinx Kidman. And I totally GET that. I chose her for "Margot at the Wedding," but was certain "Australia" was going to flop. Couldn't leave her off my ballot this time, though. Tony-winning role had most to with it. Oscar chooses, in general, one former Best Actress winner. Out of all the ones contending this year, she seemed to be the likeliest to nab a nob. But, the Academy doesn't nominate her unless they HAVE to. (i.e. she's starring in a Best Picture nominee and people have actually seen it)
Lawrence. Have no idea other than the "strong word of mouth" from Sundance. Reviews speak well of her and the film, but they don't exactly single her out as earth-shatteringly great. Along with Wright, they're my only newbie nominations. I had to pick at least one, and she appeared to me to be the most likeliest to get nominated ... if the performance is great.
Williams is the one I left off that was the hardest. I'm not a huge fan. She's okay. And her performance might be mind-blowing. And whomever brought up the sympathy points for Ledger may be right. But. I'm. Just. Not. A. Fan. ... Yet.
I toyed with the idea of Hiam Abbass. That's definitely a great guess, along with Tilda Swinton for "Kevin," but release dates look awfully sketchy at this point. "Kevin" hasn't even started filming yet. But, as we all know, Halle Berry and Hillary Swank #2 Oscars were from movies filmed mid-late (I believe) Summer. So, anything is possible. I really wanted to pick Swinton too, even for "I Am Love," but Nathaniel poo-poo'ed that possibility in his review of the film.
I think it would be fun if Ellen Barkin got nominated. She's never wowed me, but like Wright, she's got such a long and respectable career, it's always nice when such actresses turn out a surprising performance and get some recognition. But, I suppose most of you would disagree with me at least in the meanwhile, seeing as so many of have been personally affronted by Sandra Bullock winning Best Actress.
And, as "The Last Station" has proved, Helen Mirren may be the new Judi Dench as the latest actress to have the fifth slot reserved solely for just showing up to a movie set. I'm still floored by Mirren's last nom. I haven't seen the film, but was she really that great? It doesn't seem anyone went to go see it until AFTER she was nominated. WTF. But, hey, I'd love it when an old bitch gets props. And, lately, the old bitches have been doing pretty well. I'll take an old bitch getting recognized over an ingenue. But, out of the 15 films she has in the can, two of the more formidable seem to have a unclear future, as they are on the Miramax shelf. Not sure how that's going to turn out.
Catherine Zeta Jones or Drew Barrymore for me.
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