Sunday, October 12, 2008

Penélope. Predictions. Pacing.

It's just two months (minus one day) until the Golden Globe nominations are announced. The year is speeding up with casualties (Blindness, Miracle at St. Anna's) and "how far can they go?" entries (Happy-Go-Lucky, Rachel Getting Married, Frozen River, Vicky Cristina Barcelona, The Duchess) now available for public consumption. Whenever real contenders from early in the year are starting to spin in DVD players (The Visitor, Iron Man) you know the gun has fired on awards season and some contenders are already sprinting towards that distant finish line. Pace yourselves people! October to January is a marathon.

Tangent: Doesn't Penélope Cruz (Vicky Cristina Barcelona) feel lock'ish now, with so few supporting actress contenders yet in play? Sometimes it pays to be first out of the gate.

From this weekend forward there's nary a week without a new hopeful emerging. I've started revising the prediction pages. As for the Actress Psychic Contest... (sigh) I know I've been remiss this year but my excel skills are not up to the task and my magical elf from last year has been curiously unavailable. He's avoiding me! Why doesn't he want to spend hours inputting nonsensical formulas into spreadsheets for me? Why I ask you, why??? I keep saying "soon" on the point totals and I mean it. But I'm turning into the boy who cried wolf. Forgive and be patient.

29 comments:

adam k. said...

Penelope has felt like a lock to me since the day I saw her film. She still feels like the obvious choice for the win - Bardem will give her the statue - unless there's a very compelling reason to vote for someone else.

example: Kate Winslet in The Reader sporting a double nom

Anonymous said...

What's up with the Synecdoche, NY Grade? Is that good or bad?

John T said...

I just don't see her winning-I wasn't as blown away by that perf as others were, however, and the film is so small. I'd be particularly leery if one of the women who are in a potential Best PIcture make it.

Bernardo S said...

Hey Nat! I've got two suggestions for predictions:

- Considering how crappy Visual FX is, maybe Twilight should be among the predictions? If it's a huge hit (which it could be considering that every teenage girl in the world will see it)it could very well get nommed here.
- For Foreign Film, I just watched my country's (Mexico) submission, "Arráncame la Vida" and it's something I can very well see AMPAS rewarding. It's an essentially commercial picture, but that is actually very good.

Daniel said...

cruz lock for a nom - agreed - but don't feel a win.

she was great in 'elegy' too, which will be completely ignored. How did that movie barely even ripple? It was such a class act? Oh. I just answered my own question.

c.p. iñor said...

I saw ARRANCAME LA VIDA too... and with the exception of José María de Tavira and the cameos of Isela Vega and Camila Sodi... I think everybody is miscast, and I always felt like I was missing something (They cut a lot of the novel)... I didn't like it and I hope it doen's score a nod, because I'm Mexican and don't want my country being nominated for crap again (like when the nominated El Crimen del Padre Amaro).

Anonymous said...

She's the clear frontrunner, being a star AND in a Woody Allen film that garnered good reviews and which is doing good money.

She could still lose it to Viola Davis in Doubt.

Marisa Tomei is almost as raved as cruz, but she's won before, so she's probably not winning a second.

If they want to award a "thespian" or a comeback, they'll go with Debra Winger, whose film is getting great reviews.

Luke

mrripley said...

i feel is is hers unless winslet goes supp where she will def by a threat.

lawyer tony fernando said...

Kate WInslet gets a double nom and wins for supporting... it´s very possible!

Truth to be told, I´m really praying for Meryl Streep getting her 3rd Oscar this time, she deserves it!

Not to mention her performance in Mamma Mia. Loved it every second!

mrripley said...

streep eems hammy and miscast ihave watched the trailer over and over and that flick of her fingers in the opening is v hammy and mannered,her voice seems forced,i dunno maybe it is the way it's cust for me based on trailers winslet seems strongest followed by hathaway and hawkins then leo and jolie.

NATHANIEL R said...

well judging on trailers is fraught w/ problems. The doubt role is a winning kind if she's terrific

NATHANIEL R said...

luke I agree on Cruz being the frontrunner but the year is young somehow despite it being oft

Anonymous said...

People who've seen Milk said it was great. They also said that Brolin and Hirsch were the ones to watch out for in the supporting actor category. They said James was too subtle to get a nomination.

You guys don't think the whole Reader Debacle will affect Kate's chances???

Anonymous said...

The positive thing is being supporting gives her bigger chances. The bad thing is that I think this is a role like in Meryl's Sophie. If she doesn't use that to win the leading award, then what?

Jim

Glenn said...

She certainly appears to be the one to beat, but as all Oscar-watchers know it's always too early to count your chickens. She's in a Woody Allen flick that's popular, she's ethnic, a win would make history (first Spanish actress ever!) plus the photo op of Javier handing Penelope the statue would be hard to pass up (although people said that about Heath and Michelle getting duel wins, and that hardly panned out).

I still don't see Henson working out either, but I'm not sure on the movie in general, so...

Rick said...

I totally agree with John t and Lawyer Tony Fernando

adam k. said...

I just feel Cruz will be one of those situations where someone wins for total non-performance reasons even though the perf is deserving. Kind of like, well, Tilda Swinton in this category last year. That win was AWESOME, but one gets the feeling voters meant it more as a token win for Michael Clayton, and that she just happened to peak at the right time. But hey, they obviously liked the performance, too, so I'll take it.

I think this year, Cruz will win for a variety of reasons, only one of which is the actual performance. The desire to see boyfriend Bardem hand her that statue, and for them to have parallel oscar histories (lead nod followed by supporting win) will be too great. Plus there's the "history making" factor. And, let's be honest, everyone LOVES Penélope right now. Even me. And I used to hate her.

Secondary to those reasons is the fact that her performance is great, and that she's absolutely the best thing about her film. She's cast brilliantly, used brilliantly, and outshines everyone around her. The film flails when she's not onscreen, and then snaps back into place when she's is. And she's the only actor in it who never ends up sounding like a transparent Woody Allen surrogate.

It just seems to me like an Oscar perfect storm.

mrripley said...

nat are you making us wait for best actress updates to torture us.

NATHANIEL R said...

mrripley. it's just my personal life seeking to torture all of you. Not my blogging life ;)

Anonymous said...

I think Winslet in The Reader should be leading..

NATHANIEL R said...

I do too.

Bing147 said...

A few comments on the updates so far. They are fairly strong, but two people you left off, which I commented on last month, continue to confound me. Not saying they need to be high but not on the entire list? Christian McKay in Me and Orson Welles comes to mind, his reviews are flat out raves pretty much across the board, they love someone playing a real person and with Efron, if marketed right, this could actually be a hit which is never a disadvantage. I fail to see how he's not even in the top 20.

The other one is Peter O'Toole in Dean Spanley. Someone is going to put this out for a qualifying run by years end. And his reviews are amazing. I've said it before and I'll do so again, this is the only performance that could actually beat Heath Ledger.

Bing147 said...

Oh, and one more that you may have missed in the all the awards stuff going on the last 2 weeks. Dustin Hoffman in Last Chance Harvey. Early word is that he's amazing as is Emma Thompson. But people are talking about Hoffman in an awards way. They're moving the film up to this year. As weak as the actor comedy/musical field is this year, a Globe nomination should be a given if he's even decent and all word is that he is. Its a crowded field but they love to honor a vet and its been a few years for Dustin, I could see him in, he's certainly as likely as some in the top 20.

NATHANIEL R said...

see i hate this time of year even though i love it because suddenly everyone thinks there's room for ANOTHER tiny movie with unsupported marketing and release strategy in DECEMBER when all the carefully promoted huge guns are blazing.

this happens every year and few of them ever make dents. Why do people think December is so good for indies? I think indies are much better off trying the Richard Jenkins in The Visitor strategy. He's still remembered and he'll be in the mix even if he doesn't get nominated. but some of the people trying to squeeze into December will be completely flattened by huge entities like DOUBT, REV ROAD, and the like.

NATHANIEL R said...

oh and also. i purposefully haven't included things that seem to have no distributor. Because at this point. it's really late to still be seeking distribution for a 2008 release. I mean where is the time to plan promotional strategies, release schedules, marketing, junkets, etcetera...

IMDB might not be completely up to date but they have no US distributor information for
ME AND ORSON WELLES or DEAN SPANLEY

LAST CHANCE HARVEY is coming from Overture films. Small company and if they really want to throw that tortoise oscar campaign for Richard Jenkins (The Visitor) under the bus for a last minute hare sprint from Dustin Hoffman I guess they could... but it seems like a lot of work will go to waste.

rubikunsreviews said...

The early word on W is the movie isn't great but Brolin is. I think he has a good chance at a nom (and possibly Richard Dryfuss in supporting).

I'd put Brad Pitt over Malkovich for a Burn nomination, if only because his Benjamin Button role may be severely handicapped in the race by being motion capture for a decent portion of the movie (if Serkis was snubbed at the height of LOTR fever, I take it the academy doesn't take digitized performances seriously).

Bing147 said...

Spanley doesn't need a lot of time though, mainly because O'Toole can probably ride in on little more than good will and a few screeners, I mean, look at his last nomination, the film came out LATE in a tiny release, he still got in with no problem at all.

I'll concede the point on Orson Welles though I'd still call it more likely than a lot of the stuff on the bottom of your list.

As for Hoffman/Jenkins, even with Jenkins' year long push, Hoffman still feels more likely to me. Because frankly, he's Dustin Hoffman. The name recognition alone if the performances are even close to equal gives Hoffman a better chance than a year of building good will gives Jenkins. And the early word on Hoffman is strong. They are going to push him, they've said as much, so think what you want about the intelligence of it but how is he not one of the 20 most likely?

NATHANIEL R said...

i'll think about it. I do think it's a mistake. You're right about Hoffman's name but they're throwing away a lot of effort they've already put in (way too small a distributor to manage usurping 40% of what's always the most competitive acting category and they've kept Richard Jenkins in play for quite awhile already)

Bing147 said...

I do agree that its a lot of work for nothing on Jenkins, but from everything I've heard, they didn't know what they had in Last Chance Harvey. Apparently both stars are incredible but they weren't thinking awards until it started screening and everyone who saw it started raving the performances. Puts them in a tough spot, their best bet may be just to push their chips in on both counts and let them fall where they may. 2 chances instead of 1.