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Nat, are you gonna see White Material before year's end? If you're having trouble deciding on that 5th best actress spot, Huppert in that might be just the ticket to make it easier. I'm planning on seeing it at IFC soon.
Gotta love the Huppert. If I remember correctly, Tim Brayton really liked her in it, and he's a bit of a... well, genius.I'm feeling pretty confident about Kidman's Oscar nomination chances. In terms of a win, though, I would have to say that Portman, Lawrence, and (maybe) Bening all are more likely to win.
I just saw Swan today, and my seven-word review is as follows:Portman is winning the oscar. Period, end.Nicole seems to be in it for the nomination, though. I think the final five will be Portman, Bening, Kidman + two of the following three: Lawrence, Manville, Moore.
I agree with Adam on the nominations, although I am more solid on Lawrence. I would leave room for possible upsets by Williams, Rapace or Swinton for good measure. But, I feel pretty confident that the last slot is between Manville and Moore. As far as winner, although Portman seems likely, the film has settled in my mind and I see Bening still having a chance. Portman was solid, but I was more taken in by so many of the films other elements--the direction, story, cinematography, music, the three supporting ladies. (unlike Boys Don't Cry, Monster and Monster's Ball [to a lesser degree], where the female lead towers over the rest of her respective film; now that I think about it, that theme may carry through the rest of the best actress wins for the last 12 years)Portman also plays a very timid character for most of the film, which I don't think will play to her advantage. Also, for a film this serious, it had a great deal of camp, something else you're not going to find in Best Actress wins of recent. For me, Bening stood out as the Kid's finest ingredient. (I know there are a lot of Moore fans who would disagree) Don't know if that will make a difference. I feel the amount of effort Portman put in to prepare for the role of a ballerina will figure most predominantly to whether or not she'll win. Now, I think Kidman may even have a chance, depending on the reception of her film.
I think actors will embrace williams for the 5th spot.
Nicole has to be at the Oprah show at the Sydney Opera House :/
How on earth can she look that happy after flying from Nashville to LA to Australia? lolI am so happy that Kidman is in but what about the rest of Rabbit Hole. How can the BFCA give it just ONE nomination? come on! I am hoping for multiple noms.Where are Aaron and Wiest for the performances?
Is she really returning to Broadway with Sweet Bird of Youth?
Nomination # 3 for Nicole! If this happens I will love John Cameron Mitchell even more!
I'm confident Kidman is getting in your best actress shorlist, this will be like her fifth nomitation for a FB award or not? she still doesn't have a gold medal. I hope she gets one soon.
Vince, I respectfully disagree on Boys Don't Cry and Monster's Ball. There were other very good actors in those films, and Boys was a great film in general.I also disagree that Portman isn't significantly ahead of the pack. When she does press for her film, talk show hosts and media people are already acting like the statue's got her name on it. Letterman was saying things like "anybody else hoping for awards this year - well, they won't even be able to come CLOSE to this!" and it was making her uncomfortable.And having just seen the film... yes, the film as a whole is strong, and it's not just Portman; however, all other elements seem designed mainly to show her off to maximum effect. The last sequence in particular FEELS like it's ALL about her, even though, in terms of the work put in, it's not (but damn was she beautiful).I think the year of training she put in, the physical transformation, the fact that she's young and gorgeous and has seemed like a best-actress-princess-in-waiting for years, the film's own metacommentary on female stars, Aronosky's status as "due" for an acting win... all these things will not be able to be overcome by Bening, who basically just showed up for a month of shooting and did a really good job with a sympathetic role.Frankly, I never bought the Bening buzz. Never felt like she was going to win. Much like Streep last year. I knew someone younger and hotter would swoop in eventually - it was just a matter of who it would be.
adam k -- while i basically agree that Portman has this in the bag, i do resent the notion that Bening just showed up. Bening is a very professional often inspired actor and was involved with this movie for a long time, and Cholodenko has even credited her with pushing the material in a more comedic direction so she had a hand in shaping the film too (whereas Moore, by her own admission, did not get involved in the tone or screenplay).mrripley -- i know it's maybe a weird thing to say but i am going to be PISSED if Williams is nominated but Gosling isn't.
adam -- regarding the first comment: yes i will see it. But the 5th spot is not a matter of not loving someone. It's ALWAYS a matter of loving too many people. one more will only make it more insanely difficult ;)
I just mean that Huppert may instantly jump to the head of the pack and you may have another potential medalist on your hands. Then whoever is now #4 becomes the 5th slotter, and your job is done ; )re: the Bening, I love her, and yes my phrasing of "just showed up" doesn't give her due credit. But I guess I'm talking about perceptions. Given the intensive training Natalie had to undergo - plus the fact that she'd been attached to Black Swan even longer than Bening was to her film - makes Bening's (not even) month-long shoot look like nothing special by comparison. I love Bening, much more than I loved Portman before this, and even I think it looks that way.Plus, I personally never agreed that Bening was that much of a standout in her cast, and thought Moore and Ruffalo were roughly equally good if not better. And I also think the film actually strayed too far into broad comedy at times and that was its main flaw in my eyes, so I give Bening no credit for shaping the tone.I personally would like the lineup to be: Portman, Kidman, Manville, Bening and Moore (though sight unseen, Williams would probably be a fine choice too). I think Bening and Moore should share the nod, Portman should win, and Lawrence frankly I wouldn't mind seeing left out. I didn't think she was all that.
The fact that Black Swan just got 12 BFCA nods, while TKAAR couldn't even make the best picture cut also doesn't help Bening's cause.
Kidman has such an interesting career ahead of her. In february she's filming Hemingway & Gellhorn, then she's off to Germany to shoot The Danish Girl, then she takes a break and goes to Broadway in the fall. So many acting challenges ahead of her.
What’s “camp” about Black Swan? I think gay men’s enjoyment of a female driven movie automatically summons the word camp to the surface. If anything in the film threw some of the seriousness off it was the horror elements.
SPOILERS3rtfull -- i found there to be plenty of camp elements. i mean the scene with the paintings... please. and the lowbrow horror overlayed onto the highart of lincoln center.i mean it's practically the definition of camp given its love of high artifice and those daring lurches into fantastical exaggeration (especially any of the "she's become a bird' visual shocks [/END SPOILERS]gracie -- i hope we get more and more of Kidman and we might. I mean Julianne has been employed often and regularly and just turned 50 and Kidman is only 43 (?). so here's hoping. 50 does seem to be the new ceiling thank god. It used to die out at 40.
Love Nicole. She's probably my favorite actress, to be honest. That said, I have the sneaking suspicion she will be left out this year. Bening and Portman are definitely getting nods. Lawrence is starting to clean up with critics' awards and has very, very strong buzz ... I tend to think she's a given. I imagine once the hype for Manville's performance kicks in, she'll likely get a spot. And then we have all of these other women competing for the fifth spot ... and something tells me Williams will sneak in.
Anonymous, it is always nerve-wracking with Nicole Kidman but I don't think she will be left out. She has gotten 7 nominations so far (ISA, 4 critic noms, BFCA and Saturn), she will probably get the Globe and SAG noms, too and Rabbit Hole hasn't opened yet. She may not be a frontrunner like Benning, Portman and Lawrence but she is getting those nominations.
To add: what it needs is for people not to be scared to see it because they think it will be too depressing.
Amy -- i can happily report that it is not shrill miserabilism (like many grief dramas) at all. It's very much more about healing I think and that that is not without tremendous pain but it's also laced with other things like hope, humor and coping mechanisms. i really like the movie. i hope people see it.
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