Last year we played a fun game wherein y'all tried to predict Oscar's best actress candidates nearly a year in advance. Incredibly, three of our finalists actually guessed 4 of the 5 nominees! Here comes round 2. You can check out an alpha order sneak peek of some possible choices from Amy Adams to Julianne Moore to Helen Mirren to Renée Zellweger. Details on how to enter the contest will arrive on Tuesday, but if you want you can look that over and pull out your crystal balls. What Cotillard vs. Christie-like battle will erupt? Who will the Page, Linney and Blanchetts be?Stay tuned.
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42 comments:
ahem, three of your finalists guessed 4/5
Well, my list for the contest is ready!!! And, this time, I will make a better job predicting the Best Actress nominees.
I think that the Oscar 2009 Best Actress race looks very promising. We will, probably, have a great battle between Nicole Kidman, Kate Winslet and Julianne Moore.
And we better watch out for Emily Blunt and Sally Hawkins!
Kamila mentioned who I was going to mention - Sally Hawkins. I've done my year-in-advance predix at my own blog and she's on there, so in fairness....
Oh, and Lurie directed Jeff Bridges to a nomination, not Gary Oldman who has - believe it or not - never been Oscar-nominated.
Ummm, Cotillard is to Christie (2008) as Winslet is to Streep (2009)
par... you're so NUMBERS oriented ;)
everyone else. i guess i better add this Sally to the list...
Hey can you add Emily Watson to the list please? She's my predicted nominee for Whirlwind, which i a tad baitier than most of the roles on the list.
Ah it's been moved to 2009, but it is filming (WOOT!) so don't count it out! It's actually Within the Whirlwind.
Yes, don't forget Sally Hawkins from Mike Leigh's Happy-Go-Lucky. Not only did she win Best Actress at the Berlin Festival last month, the pic was described in the trade reviews as accessible and a crowd-pleaser.
Need to have some fresh faces in the line up! And good to have some perfs people have actually seen. Not sure of the release status, but it's Mike Leigh so will have some profile. Help us out Boyd, could she get nommed do you think?
Bring it on!
Also, Winslet = 5 noms. Weisz = 1 nom/1 win. We're so numbers oriented!
Rob
ok nat i have it down to 10 women
winslet - revolutionary road
streep - doubt
jolie - the changeling
portman - brothers
blunt - young victoria
weaver - girl in the park
hathaway - dancing with shiva
knightley - the edge of love
hawkins - happy go lucky
lane - nights in rodanthe
What about Joan Chen in The Home Song Stories (Australia's entry to the Foreign Language Film category)? If that film gets a theatrical release in the US this year, can't this international film icon get Oscar attention for a role that has already won her numerous accolades?
ron good call but i just double checked and HOME SONG STORIES is now DVD so the US release won't be happening.
What about Juliette Binoche in Disengagement ? And Isabelle Huppert in White Material and Un barrage contre le Pacifique ? Beware of great French actresses (and forget La Môme) !!
i never know what to do with Huppert. She makes so many movies and she's always strong in them...but the characters are so severe and IMDB does a bad job of tracking where french films are in their production status.
plus we sometimes get them years later.
I have added Binoche since disengagement has US distribution
Binoche is also the lead in Le Voyage du Ballon Rouge, which is released in April.
By the way I think Uma is the only one from the first half of the year who has a shot at some nominations, like Independent Spirit awards or Globes. The movie is getting good reviews from Hollywood Reporter and Vanity Fair and Uma is being praised by almost every reviewer. The theme of the film is also very actual, that can help. If some of the big names dissapoint, she could sneak in. After all she was snubbed two times in recent years.
I don't think Watts in Funny Games has a shot. It's just too dark and indie, even though she's terrific in it.
Zellweger is out, but she could be the Globe filler (isn't she every goddamn year).
Moore is only in contention with Blindness, but a good perf in Savage Grace can increase her chance at getting some accolades from the critics.
I'm always trying to put Huppert on everyone's radar. I saw her thrice on stage, in Sarah Kane's 4.48 Psychosis, in Hedda Gabler and in Quartett in which she played Madame de Merteuil. She's such a great actress on stage. I can't believe Cotillard has an Oscar and not Huppert. I mean, have Academy voters seen La Pianiste ? Or La Cérémonie ? I realize she can't win because most of the time she plays unsympathetic characters and that something that turns voters off when it comes to female actors. They don't like them mean or complex, they like them victims.
My theory with Sally Hawkins was that there is surely no way in hell that their lineup is going to be five previous nominees. There's always one first time (right?) and in the case of people like Catalina Moreno it's a complete unknown.
Can we pick someone that's not on your list like Gabourey Sidibe? She could be this year's breakout star for Push.
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0929632/
The NY Times did an article about her and the film last year.
-Zee
Aside from those mentioned in the comments, I can't think of any that you've left out.
One little nit to pick, however- Proof is not John Patrick Shandley's directorial debut. He also directed 1990's Joe Versus the Volcano, which was savaged at the time but is actually kind of awesome.
you're not restricted to the names on the list. I was just trying to provide an overview.
i've added SIDIBE.
Here's one, Sophie Okenodo for Skin. Previous Oscar nominee.
thanks nat... wow it sure looks like a great year for actressexuals. I hope I can at least improve on my equal last place finish from last year...?
DrG
Can I take part this year? Fun, fun, fun.
Cate Blanchett - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Emily Blunt - The Young Victoria
Julianne Moore - Blindness
Meryl Streep - Doubt
Kate Winslet - Revolutionary Road
Oh, Sally Hawkins! You can't ignore her! Mike Leigh ftw.
whip-smart. of course you can! But the contest is not open yet!
rules to come on Tuesday. And you have two weeks to enter.
Hey Nat, are there any new rules this year? And is the points system the same?
adam k: except winslet is awesome and marion is not ;)
You forgot about Charlize Theron in The Road!
I think Charlize has a very small part in the Road, hardly leading. I could be wrong.
I honestly believe that only two out of these will make it, Meryl Streep, Julianne Moore, Kate Winslet, Nicole Kidman and Angelina Jolie. Every one is predicting the same darn people. Out of the five,I would say only Kate and Angelina.
Julianne Moore- I heard about the test screenings for Blindness and the reviews for Savage Grace.
Meryl Streep-I don't think she'll be nominated for this role. I just don't.
Nicole Kidman-I could be wrong , but Austrailia sounds like a HUGE flop and Nicole has been in a string of bad movies lately.
---------------------------------
Kate Winslet for the READER not Revolutionary Road.
Angelina- Clint Eastwood ,plus her snubbed Mighty Heart Performance.
Emily Blunt- I hear her performance is amazing
Sally Hawkins-Based one early reviews
Some unknown or someone that isn't on anyone's Radar.
BLUE
Review in Vanity Fair for Life Before Her Eyes makes a case for Wood being the lead, although it says Thurman does her best work in years.
I prefer Wood in Supporting because I think she would fare better and deserves to be noticed.
That being said...it could go either way.
That also being said...it is still a spring release and limited at that.
This is going to be much harder to call then it was last year! I'm loving Winslet and Moore, but so unsure of anyone else.
Is Kate Winslet in The Reader definitely lead, or might it be supporting? I feel like they'll campaign her in supporting if it's at all defensible. It sounds like Ralph Fiennes is the main character, not her... maybe another Constant Gardener type situation? Anyway, she could easily double dip this year, both roles sound like easy gets... so I hope they're not both lead.
She could go lead or supporting in either movies. Revolutionary Road is more of Leo's movie. I just feel like THe Reader will be the better movie and if that is the case they'll probably push her in lead.
BLUE
Anne Hathaway being directed by Rodrigo García??!!
*swoon*
I keep hearing that Australia will be a huge flop and it won's be good, but I just have a feeling that Baz will do it again. And plus, it's co-written by Baz and Ronald Harwood (The guy who wrote Diving Bell and the Butterfly and The Pianist) so the story and screenplay will probably be amazing...
Stephen G: Mmmm... Happy-Go-Lucky is hilarious but inconsequential, i.e. you love Sally's character for the time it's on screen and forget all about her once you're out of the theatre. It doesn't have any memorable, big Oscary scenes that are a combination of laughs and emotions. If anything, if the film really catches on in the US (which will be difficult because it's a situational comedy with no plot to speak of, no stars and some fat London accents) then a Best Supporting Actress nomination might be a possibility for Karina Fernandez, who plays an fiery yet uptight Flamenco teacher in two of the film's most hilarious sequences, with a perfectly acted nervous breakdown also giving the character some dramatic/emotional weight.
Oh... and on Juliette Binoche: I've seen both Désengagement and Le Voyage du ballon rouge and would say she is much, much better in the second film than in the first. BUT (and its a big but): Voyage is in French and Chinese, while Désengagement is in French and English, and the Academy loves Jewish characters, even if her performance is a very arty one in an arty film (there is an extended sequence in which soprano Barbara Hendricks sings in a room that contains the dead body of one of Binoche's parents just for starters) and the role also includes a long scene of full frontal nudity, which might be a deterrent for some voters.
And maybe votes will split her chances of getting a Best Actress nomination... tough!
"I keep hearing that Australia will be a huge flop and it won't be good"
The movie ain't even finished yet, there's no way anybody can be telling anybody that it's not a good movie. The only people who could've seen it are those making it. The people talking about it are just speculating.
Also, I reckon Winslet will be supporting for The Reader. And if nobody gives the performance of the century in that category could be the easiest win of the night. But, still so long away so who knows what will happen.
Well, Home Song stories is now on DVD in the US? Becuase I only know the DVD release is only in Australia and Asia (that's sure), and If the film has an american teathrical release (including a limited release in LA and New York) could be a contender, like "An american night", especially for the great reviews for Joan Chen. The film was in Palm Springs festival this year.
My predictions:
Top five:
*Julianne Moore: I think this is Moore's with two exciting performances. Blindness is bigger opportunity than Savage grace
*Kate Winslet: Revolutionary road is good proyect, but I think she has more chances in Supporting category for The Reader
*Angelina Jolie: A mighty heart snub+Clint Eastwood+Beloved mother role+Star factor=Oscar nomination? I think so...
*Meryl Streep: Doubt is a high profile role, but adaptations for plays in Broadway is not always a good result... Or remember The History Boys?
*Emily Blunt: The IT girl of the year... like Ellen Page, Keira Knightley, Catalina Sandino Moreno and Charlize Theron... A semi biopic+Martin Scorsese+Real british queen+young, beautiful and talented (More than Knightley) british actress= Oscar nomiantion? Probably, only if the film sucks
In the running:
*Sally Hawkins: Winner at Berlinale and intersting carachter in Leigh's film... It's possible
*Sophie Okonedo: She surprises before for her nomination in Hotel Rwanda... Why not now?
*Laura Linney: Last race we prove that theory... Linney is respect and beloved in Hollywood... Two intersting roles (Including The city of your final destination in the supporting category)
*Uma Thurman: Kill Bill snubs+Star factor+Suffering wife and mother+Victim role+Good reviews since Toronto=Good posibilities
*nicole Kidman: Maybe I'm crazy but I have not faith with australia...
*Cate Blanchett: Respect actress with an intersting role... but maybe in supporting category
*Keira Knightley: if The Duchess's trailer said all, the film will be sucks. I don't know about The edge of love
*Carice van Houten: This year's next hot european exportation? Could be but i think the next year with Smoche and Ochre
And my dream (maybe maybe not, but Who knows):
*Joan Chen: In the Home Song stories she shines and she looks vulnerable and scare in a new world. I read the sinopsis and she has a perfect Oscarish role. BEloved mother+Victim role+Suffering wife+Foreigner. it's time for an asian iconic actress get the Oscar nomination...
You miss Michelle Williams for "incendiary". Sharon Maguire directed Renee Zellweger in "Bridget Jones' diary"
rennee z chilled in miami.
Renee goes supporting for Apaloosa and Chilled in Miami might be delayed to 2009 because Renne's year is already crowded (Leatherheads, Case 39, Apaloosa)
Got nothing to say about your Sneak Peek, You really got an awesome informative blog, would you mind if i ask you for a link exchange? Regards...
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