Thursday, December 16, 2010

Screen Actors Guild Nominations

JoBeth Williams welcomes you! "They're heeeeeeeee--eeeere"

Giggly Rosario Dawson & Angie Harmon announced the SAG nominations at 9:00 AM EST after being introduced by JoBeth Williams.

Though this is the last major clue as to where Oscar acting nominations will go, it is not the "this is it!" twin that many like to claim.

Important Differences From SAG to Oscar: Contrary to what you often read on the internet there is not significant overlap in the voting pools between SAG and Oscar. Unless they've recently changed their rules, SAG randomly chooses a sliver of its membership each year to do the nominations. Some miniscule percentage of them might be Academy members but the numbers don't add up to a big percentage. SAG is a mammoth union, representing 200,000 film, tv and background performers and all dues paying members can vote on the winners. Oscar's acting branch is infinitely harder to join; it's a final club on steroids to use The Social Network as handy 2010 reference. There are 1,205 voting actors in the Academy who all get nominating ballots. All of the Academy's 1,000+ actors are or were SAG members (having acted in films for years) but the other 198,795 SAG members are definitely not members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.

Other key differences: SAG nominators are (statistically) fonder of child and very young adult actors than Oscar. They're also arguably more populist in their choices overall having given the big prizes to people from smash comedies like Renée Zellweger in Chicago (2002) or Johnny Depp in Pirates of the Caribbean (2003) and arguably more influenced by your place in the Hollywood food chain, choosing legends over newbies for wins in hotly contested contests like Bening beating Swank in 99/00, Day-Lewis over Brody in 02/03 or Christie beating Cotillard in 07/08.  They are also not allowed to vote their own mind when it comes to "lead" versus "supporting" issues. Oscar voters may vote for you in whichever category they personally feel is correct. SAG voters may only vote for you in the category that your studio submits you in (which explains Keisha Castle Hughes' bizarre "supporting" citation at SAG for Whale Rider).

Nominations with commentary after the jump


Best Female Actor (Drama Series)
  • Glenn Close (Damages)
  • Mariska Hargitay (L&O: SVU is a Comedy)
  • Julianna Marguiles (The Good Wife)
  • Elisabeth Moss (Mad Men)
  • Kyra Sedgwick (The Closer)
This lineup is really gross to me, indicating that SAG voters really really love their procedurals. I do not. Procedurals are death to actors who want to dig in deep to characterizations.
    Best Male Actor (Drama Series)
    • Steve Buscemi (Boardwalk Empire)
    • Bryan Cranston (Breaking Bad)
    • Michael C Hall (Dexter)
    • Jon Hamm (Mad Men)
    • Hugh Laurie (House)
    Applause in the room for Michael C Hall. People sure do love his death-dealing. After Six Feet Under and Dexter... what can his third morbid series role be? Doesn't death come in threes?
      Best Female Actor (Comedy Series)
      • Edie Falco (Nurse Jackie)
      • Tina Fey (30 Rock)
      • Jane Lynch (Glee)
      • Sofia Vergara (Modern Family)
      • Betty White (Hot in Cleveland)
      White continues her ubiquity. Didn't she win lifetime achievement last year? I haven't seen Cleveland otherwise this is a gorgeous lineup. I'd love to see Falco or Vergara at the podium though.

      Best Male Actor (Comedy Series)
      • Alec Baldwin (30 Rock)
      • Ty Burrell (Modern Family)
      • Steve Carell (The Office)
      • Chris Colfer (Glee)
      • O'Neill (Modern Family)
      Another terrific lineup. Well chosen.

      Best Female Actor (Miniseries/Movie)
      • Claire Danes (Temple Grandin)
      • Catherine O'Hara (Temple Grandin)
      • Julia Ormond (Temple Grandin)
      • Winona Ryder (When Love is Not Enough)
      • Susan Sarandon (You Don't Know Jack)
      It's like a Temple Grandin key party up in there. Could vote splitting make this a big comeback for Winona?
        Best Male Actor (Miniseries/Movie)
        •  John Goodman (You Don't Know Jack)
        • Al Pacino (You Don't Know Jack)
        • Dennis Quaid (That Special Relationship)
        • Edgar Ramirez (Carlos)
        • Patrick Stewart (Macbeth)
        I didn't even know John Goodman was in You Don't Know  Jack. Remember when he was married to Roseanne or when he used to always be in the Coen Bros pictures. Carlos is confusing me. I do not like it when things get prizes in both film & television. Stop blurring the lines! Big screens or small screens. Me no likely medium sized screens.
          Best Ensemble (Drama)
          • Boardwalk Empire
          • The Closer
          • Dexter
          • Teh Good Wife
          • Mad Men
          Best Ensemble (Comedy)
          • 30 Rock
          • Glee
          • Hot in Cleveland
          • Modern Family
          • The Office
          It wasn't enough to give Betty White one nomination when you can give her two. As much as I continue to love 30 Rock and admire Glee for casting actors who can actually sing... Modern Family deserves this ten-fold. Such a seamless cast, no weak spots; everyone is hilarious.

          Stunt Ensemble (Series)
          • Burn Notice
          • CSI New York
          • Dexter
          • Southland
          • True Blood
          I'm confused how five series get nominated for stunts but only three movies? Last I checked movies had lots of stunts, too.

          2010 NOMINATIONS FILM
          Mother & Son (The Fighter). Can they both take home SAG & Oscar?

          Best Female Actor (Supporting Role)
          • Amy Adams (The Fighter)
          • Helena Bonham-Carter (The King's Speech)
          • Mila Kunis (Black Swan)
          • Melissa Leo (The Fighter)
          • Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit)
          You can consider The Fighter women and HBC all locked up. As for Kunis & Steinfeld... I'd say they still have to fend off the amazing sixtysomething ladies (Jacki Weaver, Dianne Wiest, Barbara Hershey). Check out Scott Feinberg's list of awesome relevant stats. Many people are saying that Kunis is locked up after Globes & SAG nods but that's just not the case. Someone is denied nearly every year in that situation (though usually only one person).
            Best Male Actor (Supporting Role)
            •  Christian Bale (The Fighter)
            •  John Hawkes (Winter's Bone)
            • Jeremy Renner (The Town)
            • Mark Ruffalo (The Kids Are All Right)
            • Geoffrey Rush (The King's Speech
            In a very rare occurences I like all five nominees in a supporting actor category. Two of them are probably leads but what can you do. I expect Oscar will embrace Andrew Garfield (The Social Network) here so one of these men will have to go. 
              Best Female Actor (Leading Role)
              • Annette Bening (The Kids Are All Right)
              • Nicole Kidman (Rabbit Hole)
              • Jennifer Lawrence (Winter's Bone)
              • Natalie Portman (Black Swan)
              • Hilary Swank (Conviction)
              Hilary Swank's surprise appearance here is noteworthy in that it shows how (still) hotly contested the Best Actress race is. The way I see it there are 3 locks (Bening, Portman, Lawrence) due to support for both the performances and the films which house them and then there is 1 probable but vulnerable (Kidman) due to support for performance but not the film and then there are still 6 women (Williams, Rapace, Moore, Swank, Swinton, Manville) trying to nab 1 remaining spot. Theoretically, any of them might for various reasons and 1, at least, will.

              Best Male Actor (Leading Role)
              •  Jeff Bridges
              • Robert Duvall
              • Jesse Eisenberg
              • Colin Firth
              • James Franco
              You can expect to see Eisenberg, Firth & Oscar host Franco nominated for Oscar but spots #4 & 5 are confusing; two spots for three men. Duvall, Bridges and SAG-shunned Ryan Gosling have to fight it out with one of them losing.
                Best Ensemble (Cast)
                •  Black Swan
                • The Fighter
                • The Kids Are All Rigth
                • The King's Speech
                • The Social Network
                This is a huge huge get for Black Swan, which is arguably in some ways a one-woman show. The rest of the field is much closer to the type of film that one would expect to see getting ensemble attention, for better and for worse. Not that the Swan ensemble isn't terrific. It's just not the thing you'd usually see here so it shows their heat as a film. UPDATE: "When a Nomination is Still a Snub" further notes on this always bizarre category.
                Stunt Ensemble
                • Green Zone
                • Inception
                • Robin Hood
                Why only 3 nominees? Is it because CGI are not stuntmen and movies have less and less reality and more and more coding? This was Inception's only nod today but we knew it was never going to be an 'actor's film'. They'll make up for it with votes from the tech branches of the Academy.

                Your turn. Share opinions in the comments. Particularly about those crazy tight fifth spots in all four acting categories.

                Related Post: SAG injustice (the ensemble category) BFCA & Globe nominations (good comparison points. In an unholy union of the three, you basically have your Oscar list)


                  Janice said...

                  I know very little about SAG so - they don't do supporting catagories? I'm seeing Danes, O'Hara and Ormond all in one catagory for Temple Gradin - and Ormond and O'Hara did fine work in that one, so I'm glad to see them recognized, but shouldn't they be in a supporting catagory?

                  I should probably shut up until Nat is finished typing.

                  Lucas said...

                  hilary swank??? WTF!!! i thought she was already out of race by now... and no jacki weaver? no blue valentine? sounds crazy, but I hated even more than the GG nominations!

                  joy said...

                  Bening vs. Swank. Round Three lol

                  And Noni is a double nominee!

                  Julia said...

                  I know it's a movies blog, but wth isn't Laura Linney nominated for The Big C?

                  And how in the world Jacki Weaver menages to be nominated for a GG and not for a SAG?

                  Janice said...

                  I'm surprised that only Kidman is getting any love for Rabbit Hole.

                  Arkaan said...

                  Swank nominated made my day.

                  James T said...

                  If I counted correctly, 8 out of the 10 lead nominees were in the hollywood reporter roundtables.

                  Unknown said...

                  never Thought Swank would make it this time...yayyyyy

                  Peggy Sue said...

                  Swank's surprise appearance is the only twisted/amusing thing in a very very boring list... but they voted for Bullock last year so what can you expect?!!

                  Unknown said...

                  Well, some of these "surprises" were to be expected considering that the SAG always throws a few curve balls (I doubt we'll see Swank actually nominated by the Academy -- not in THIS strong a best-actress year). However, some "maybes" seem to have been solidified (who ever thought the voice of Meg Griffin would score an Oscar nod?).

                  caroline said...

                  There are a few "surprising" omissions, for sure. Some people I'd previously considered locks, like Andrew Garfield/Jacki Weaver. And no Gosling-Williams nominations! Boo.

                  Hillary Swank.....whoa.

                  Happy they nominated John Hawkes, though.

                  aclp said...

                  Wow....Swank!!! NO Ryan and Michelle that sucks...

                  jeff said...

                  I don't think they have given two lead actress to the same person, and they love awarding big stars... could Kidman win this ? Her reviews are strong enough.

                  aclp said...
                  This comment has been removed by the author.
                  J said...

                  If you bet on "not Topher Grace" at really long Vegas odds for "Which 'That 70's Show' Cast Member Gets an Oscar Nomination First"...I'd say you're getting ready to buy a brand new car.

                  aclp said...

                  Am I the only person on planet Earth who thinks Glee is awful? Terrible? Ridiculous? That it sucks?

                  Scott said...

                  Sure it's on the tv side, not the film side, and this is a film site - but Hot in Cleveland? Really?

                  James T said...

                  jeff - If they don't give it to Bening, I think it will be Portman, not Kidman.

                  Oh who are we kidding? Of course Swank will win. :p

                  NATHANIEL R said...

                  arkaan -- it is hilarious.

                  julia -- i don't know. i only hear great things.

                  janice -- yeah, sag does the same thing as the gLobes with TV splits for drama/comedy but not for supporting. it's weird.

                  Volvagia said...

                  Nat mentioned this in the article: Statistically more fond of younger people. Jacki Weaver will likely get the Oscar nom, but this showing means she will NOT get the win. Of the 8 people that missed a Globe, only 4 can be counted toward the "can you miss the Globe, hit the SAG and win" theory. Coburn, Arkin, Benigni and Gay Harden. Of those 3, only 1 managed to get a win without a SAG nom at the very least. (So, the winner would, most likely, be either Leo or HBC. (You can miss the SAG and be nommed. You can't miss the SAG and win.)

                  James T said...

                  Christmas wish: If Kunis gets an Oscar nod, they'll feel guilty for snubbing the older Weaver and give the award to Bening to make it up to women over 45.

                  But maybe Kunis instead of HBC? She IS over 40, at least, right?

                  Kay said...

                  Garfield/Weaver snub saddens me.
                  Swank nom surprises and amuses me. They really want Bening/Swank Round 3, don't they?
                  Laura Linney snub (The Big C) disappoints me.

                  I'm sure we won't be seeing some of these names on the Oscar nominations list next year, though.

                  Unknown said...

                  @James T: Considering Kunis has been a consistent presence on the supporting actress shortlist, I don't think she's the one knocking off Weaver.

                  John T said...

                  Swank scoring a shocker Best Actress nomination at the Oscars is the only way I see Bening getting the trophy. That "rivalry" is well-known in the media, and suddenly that could become the angle, and it's difficult to win if you aren't part of the media pony race.

                  I think the Hawkes thing is a fluke for the Oscars, but would be exciting if he could make it (he's from near my hometown and I saw him in a play when I was little and before he had done anything of any note). Kunis, on the other hand, seems to have her nomination locked up.

                  James T said...

                  troyhopper - Wasn't Kunis less frequently mentioned than the others except for Steinfeld? But Steinfeld is a more obvious nod since she has recieved more praise from critics (not critics awards) and she is lead.

                  caroline said...

                  @Volvagia Not true, it's more likely that Hailee Steinfeld won't make the cut.

                  Bia said...

                  Mila Kunis was ranked very low on most pundit's list a couple months ago. Even after winning that award at Venice, she flew under the radar. So, her rise is pretty amazing.

                  But Hilary? Oh lawd...please tell me there is no third Oscar for her! Anette Bening might cut her!

                  Volvagia said...

                  J: It was really between 4 people to get serious careers: Kunis, Grace, Kutcher and Valderama. Valderama has fallen into a role as character actor. Kutcher is about to appear in an Ivan Reitman movie. (Ivan hasn't done anything good since Ghostbusters. Hope his son doesn't end up the same way.) Grace is an annoying performer. His Traffic turn was Razzie worthy. So...Kunis.

                  Volvagia said...

                  I DID not mention who was going to be cut from the nomination ballot. All I said was "Weaver's not WINNING" because she missed the SAG. If I were to say "who's being cut from that ballot", I'd say Steinfeld.

                  JC said...

                  Julia Ormond and Catherine O'hara over Judi Dench? No way! They wouldn't have been nominated if there were best ensemble in a miniserie or tv movie.

                  Me said...

                  I cannot believe the best TV ensemble is actually on CBS right now. Good luck, Good Wife

                  Julia said...

                  BTW, can anyone explain what happened with Marcia Gay Harden back in 2001? I didn't follow the circuit back then (I'm afraid I am a convert from The Return of the King sweep in '03), but I'd love to understand what went on so that she could win without a SAG or a GG nomination...

                  Unknown said...

                  @ Nat, why is Kidman vulnerable?

                  She's been nominated for every possible notable award out there AND this time even the SAGs nominated her, and they've only nominated her once before and it was for The Hours, which is when she won the Oscar too.

                  Kidman is locked for a nomination at the Oscars, in my opinion.

                  Duvall's a veteran, a legend, he's old and he's not a woman, so he'll get nominated too.

                  Arkaan said...

                  Also mentioned elsewhere: Josh Pence, one of the Winkleveiss (the body, not the face) was nominated as part of the ensemble. None of the women were (though only two really noteworthy in this sense: Ronney Mara, and the female lawyer who had the stupid film ending line, don't know her name).

                  Rather funny, that. Is this the first ensemble nomination that's all male?

                  aclp said...

                  Arkaan, that last line was indeed stupid as hell.

                  John T said...

                  I bet it is the first all male lineup. One of my favorite post-SAG Award dissections is Nat looking at the Best Cast snubs-I'd imagine Rooney Mara would probably be on the top of the list, as she's the catalyst for the whole movie.

                  Devin D said...

                  John Hawkes!

                  NATHANIEL R said...

                  Julia -- i was the only Oscar pundit to call MARCIA & ED's nominations correctly that year. (it was my first year of public punditry). what happened was the film got off to a very late start with super minimal one-week qualifying run (near the peak of when those actually worked -- they don't work as well anymore thank god).

                  i had seen the picture and there was just no way that Oscar voters weren't going for those performances so I predicted them. it was just too baity and Oscar-wheelhouse. My guess is that people were nervous about awarding Kate Hudson so early in a career and for her first real role of not not knowing what she could or couldn't do (i.e. they weren't FULLY convinced... because sometimes they only care that the young woman is hot) and then this huge amazing lead performance was in the running from an industry veteran so they went for that intead.

                  OtherRobert said...

                  I don't think Mila Kunis is a lock, but I'm liking her odds now. The film is peaking at the right time to get a slew of nominations and she very well may ride the wave to a nomination. I'm really thinking Hailee Steinfeld is going to get bumped up to Leading at the Oscars. There will be voters who see the film and go "supporting? No way" just like Keshia Castle-Hughes. Even with the Globe snubbing, True Grit feels like it's also going to hit at the right time for a slew of nominations. That opens up the fifth slot for Jackie Weaver, who I'm tempted to call a lock even without SAG. Is she known enough for such a small nomination pool to award her? Not in America. She's fine.

                  Arkaan said...

                  Maybe Saving Private Ryan was the 1st all male line-up?

                  Lucky said...

                  The acting races are so exciting this year. There are like seven actors competing in each category. Who the hell is going to win Best Supporting Actress? I actually thought Weaver could make it all the way. Guess it's going to be Leo...

                  Lucky said...

                  What about the Hurt Locker's cast? Was Evangeline Lily nominated? (her role is even smaller than Mara's in TSN)

                  Alex Constantin said...

                  OH NATHANIEL,

                  you are mentioning Swinton and Rapace as possible Best Actress nominees and NOT Lesley Manville??? :P

                  i know she isn't nominated for Globe/SAG, but she IS the NBR winner. And, I was writing to someone last night, it hasn't happened since 1990 (Mia Farrow) for a NBR Best Actress winner not to turn into an Oscar nominee.

                  NATHANIEL R said...

                  alex -- that was an accident. i shall fix. but the post is now done with pictures. more posts to come later in the day obvs.

                  adelutza said...

                  Seriously, Hilary Swank?! It might be somewhat funny that she was nominated together with Bening again, but over Michelle Williams ? Not funny anymore.

                  Urey said...

                  Halle Berry is in the lead actress race more than Noomi Rapace or Tilda Swinton are. But Hilary Swank? The SAGs wanted their Annette/Hilary round three, and that's what they got! Love it.

                  No Andrew Garfield? That really upsets me. I think he just lost his chance at an Oscar win.

                  But then there's John Hawkes! Might be my favorite nod of the film categories. So glad he was remembered. As great as Jennifer Lawrence was, she was greatly aided by both John Hawkes and Dale Dickey.

                  No Jacki Weaver? Surely all the critics wins/Globes nod balance out this snub, right? I think this is going to one of "The Fighter" ladies. I should't have dismissed it as just another boxing movie. It's definitely on my must-watch list now.

                  The SAGs usually love to surprise, and they did that today.

                  BBats said...

                  You really think Noomi Rapace has a chance to be nominated in a foreign role in the second sequel of a not great series? Isn't that like how you said The Dark Knight wasn't nommed because it was the seventh film in a series. I could see the argument that hollywood wants to reward her and make her a bigger star, but aren't they already doing that?

                  Evan said...


                  Nate, the Best Drama lists are full of actors from procedurals because those are essentially the only dramas made or watched nowadays!

                  I'm also constantly surprised by the praise heaped onto Chris Colfer. He's very one-note... sad gay or bitchy gay (ok, so two notes, but still one-dimensional).


                  I haven't even seen Blue Valentine and already I'm desperately pulling for nominations for Gosling and Williams. I think it's Manville v. Williams for that fifth spot (given to Swank at the SAGs).

                  Glad to see Eisenberg and Lawrence's campaigns strengthening. I wouldn't call Lawrence's a sure-bet yet (close), but think Eisenberg is definitely in.

                  What are the chances it's The Social Network v. Black Swan, not The King's Speech? I still think 'Social' will win.

                  Peggy Sue said...

                  I don't see the point in keeping an ensemble category in movies when they leave half of the cast out like they do with Kids and Network.

                  /3rtfu11 said...

                  I thought Swank getting in would bode well for Bening but no actress has every repeated a win at SAG in the Lead Actress category. See Streep last year. It’s Portman’s Actor (that’s what they call their statuette) to lose. Melissa Leo wins SAG (character actresses are so beloved here). Kunis getting in, I see it, I joked here before that she was this year’s Marisa Tomei, and now I suspect I’m more spot-on than I realized.
                  God I hate Duvall’s nomination, his shutout from critics groups and the Globes gave me hope that old man wasn’t going to get sentimental votes. The Cuddly Bear got in and you have nothing special to add Nathaniel?

                  Rebecca said...

                  Nominations give me crazy thoughts - like 'John Hawkes could actually win the Oscar!' which is probably not going to happen.

                  Unknown said...

                  Ok, Hot in Cleveland might be an even more insane nomination than The Tourist. If I am not mistaken the whole recent Betty White craze really got underway at the SAG Awards last year when she won the lifetime achievement award. I think they just want to acknowledge that.

                  Dean said...


                  dalurae said...
                  This comment has been removed by the author.
                  dalurae said...

                  Heh, what a comeback for Noni! She made a really short appearance in Black Swan but in no way did she make me feel that way. My initial thought was The Kids Are Alright could be a possible win for best ensemble because although as much as I liked the ensemble case in Black Swan, like you said it was essentially Portman's one man show. And as for lead actress I'd replace Swank with Moore.

                  NATHANIEL R said...

                  Dean -- i discuss this very thing in the new SAG INJUSTICE post.

                  Anonymous said...

                  Anyone who thinks that Kunis is better than Hershey in Black Swan shouldn't be allowed to give out awards or.. breathe.

                  Anonymous said...

                  Weaver gets nominated for a GG but not the SAG because the HFPA is a critics group (kinda) whose job is more or less to watch all films as they're released and SAG is made up of actor's who clearly didn't watch their screeners.

                  Weaver will always have the same problem... If you've seen the film, you'll nominate her, but if enough people don't watch their screener, she's not making it in.

                  (Frustrating for me, though I've seen the film, I was hoping to revist it on screener... Unfortunately it seems that Sony only shipped it to actors, and I'm but a lowly producer.

                  RT said...

                  Drama television actress is more than just a bunch of procedural shows. You'd know that if you actually watched those shows. There's more character development on "The Good Wife" and "The Closer" than a lot of the crap that's out there in movie theaters right now. It's a strong field this year and shouldn't be so easily ridiculed.

                  Walter L. Hollmann said...

                  1) I still think Wahlberg is going to get in with AMPAS. Sight unseen, it would be bizarre to nominate the hell out of The Fighter without nominating the man himself.

                  2) So psyched for Betty White and Hot in Cleveland. It doesn't reinvent the wheel, but all the actresses have great chemistry together, it's consistent and it's hilarious. Now, Wendie Malick is the best part, but I understand and support the White nom.

                  3) Can I say, selfishly, that I was excited about Swank's nom because it meant 4/5 of my Actress Psychic predix made it to SAG? I haven't even seen Conviction, I just want to win.

                  NATHANIEL R said...

                  RT -- it's true that i don't watch those shows regularly so I shouldn't be so glib. BUT i have watched them all in the past and was not the least bit impressed. I just think the very format of procedurals does not allow for the types of writing and roles that would give actors enough to do.

                  but i could be wrong. Christina Hendricks on MAD MEN is a perfect example of someone giving me an entire human being while only actually allowed to say "office" type of business lines (in first season) so i suppose it's possible that stand-alone episodic procedurals might have some of this in their better episodes.

                  Janice said...

                  Swank in the actress line-up reminds me of what Amanda was saying in a conversation yesterday (?) about Michelle Williams not being as much as a "game player" - in Amanda's instance she was comparing Williams to Anne Hathaway, but the point is still the same. (And, Joachim Phoenix's rant about the Oscars a couple of years back.) I suspect what they both say is very true - that Swank is willing to promote, promote, promote, and Williams isn't. But that's just a guess.

                  Anonymous said...

                  The ladies of The Social Network weren't on their own title cards in the opening credits sequence. That's why they weren't included in ensemble. That was probably the case with all of those other snubs too.

                  Vince said...

                  Gah! How did Parenthood not get nominated for Ensemble? It's probably my second favorite drama series cast, after Mad Men of course, and it just seems to be something the guild would go for - a combo of veteran players, semi-famous personalities, and talented child actors.

                  I also find it odd how they decide who does or does not get included in the ensemble category for film, considering recurring guest stars are allowed to be included in the television ensemble categories. i.e. Iqbal Theba winning last year as part of the Glee ensemble

                  jason said...

                  I'm appalled that the Screen Actors Guild has failed to nominate any gay male or bisexual male roles. It's a homophobic organization.

                  Aaron said...

                  I really don't have anything against Hilary Swank but I AM SO PISSED at her nomination...SERIOUSLY??? I'm hoping that the SAG committee just didn't watch Blue Valentine, because both Michelle Williams and Ryan Gosling deserve lead acting noms...

                  ...with prominent actors such as Kate Winslet, Ben Kingsley, and Robert DeNiro showing some public support for Blue Valentine, I'm hoping that the actors in the Academy will give it some notice...

                  Anonymous said...

                  Jason -

                  To start with, SAG did nominate Chris Colfer (cast member from Glee) as an individual. Both Colfer and his character are gay.

                  Secondly, since I'm assuming you're meaning films and not TV, can you name a male gay or bisexual role that's been a part of the awards conversation at all? I'm racking my brain to think if there were any notable gay characters in major films (outside of I Love You Phillip Morris and the lesbians of The Kids are All Right).

                  If you're pointing out that there aren't many gay or bi male characters in major Hollywood pictures, that's one argument... But on the premise that SAG is homophobic: you do know that like 99% of actors are gay, right? ;)

                  Bryan said...

                  So happy for Sofia Vergara and Chris Colfer. Interesting that they're not in supporting, though.

                  ACTRESS: Rather odd that Swank made the cut... I fully expect Williams to take this spot. Manville has had a bad week.

                  ACTOR: I am completely underwhelmed by Bridges and Duvall. Here's hoping that Gosling gets in.

                  SUPP. ACTRESS: This Kunis thing is really going to happen, isn't it? I'd argue that both Hershey and Ryder are better. More and more, this is looking like a race between Adams and Leo, with Leo the front-runner.

                  SUPP. ACTOR: Very happy for Renner, but that movie has been entirely forgotten. Garfield has that spot in the bag.

                  Dominik said...

                  Now it’s getting really exciting. I totally feel like doing some Oscar predicting myself, and rant a little about why.

                  DISCLAIMER 1: I have only seen six 2010 movies so far, so practically nothing, not even my “would like to see on this list but won’t”s is based on what movies/performances I have actually seen, but just on what looks good on paper to me.
                  Those six were, from which I liked the most to the least (though I really liked them all): Kick-Ass – The Runaways – Shutter Island – Harry Potter 7.1 – Inception – The Social Network. The only remotely award worthy performances I’ve seen would be (I’ll list them because I also want to have a chance to talk about something with a some more solid base than “looks good on paper to me”):
                  Lead Actor
                  Leonardo DiCaprio – Shutter Island
                  Jesse Eisenberg – The Social Network
                  Winner: DiCaprio, I never really liked him, but he’s really very good in this
                  Lead Actress
                  Dakota Fanning – The Runaways
                  Kristen Stewart – The Runaways
                  Winner: K-Stew, while Dakota is good but tries a little too hard (as usual), she seems to be born for the role
                  Supporting Actor
                  Andrew Garfield – The Social Network
                  Armie Hammer – The Social Network
                  Ben Kingsley – Shutter Island
                  Michael Shannon – The Runaways
                  Mark Strong – Kick-Ass
                  Justin Timberlake – The Social Network
                  Winner: Michael Shannon, no doubt
                  Supporting Actress
                  Marion Cotillard – Inception
                  Chloe Moretz – Kick-Ass
                  Emily Mortimer – Shutter Island
                  Brenda Song – The Social Network
                  Winner: Chloe – don’t get me wrong, I would consider the Oscars nuts and having lost every credibility if they’d nominate her (or the movie), but she’s great in a totally not oscary way, and so is the whole movie
                  I quite frankly don’t really feel able to judge that at all

                  DISCLAIMER 2: I hate it, when the Oscars feel like an almost exact copy of the Golden Globes (or some other less prominent award), like last year. There has to be some distinction, some element of surprise, some prove that they have an opinion of their own, and that is why I would hate to predict exactly what everybody else predicts. But to some degree of course it’s inevitable, especially at this point of the race.
                  (to be continued)

                  Dominik said...


                  Best Actor
                  Robert Duvall – Get Low
                  Jesse Eisenberg – The Social Network
                  James Franco – 127 Hours
                  Colin Firth – The King’s Speech
                  Ryan Gosling – Blue Valentine
                  Firth, because of “A Single Man”, having been predicted all year by everybody, and winning everything

                  Best Actress
                  Annette Bening – The Kids Are All Right
                  Halle Berry – Frankie and Alice
                  Jennifer Lawrence – Winter’s Bone
                  Lesley Manville – Another Year
                  Natalie Portman – Black Swan
                  Bening, because: due

                  Best Supporting Actor
                  Christian Bale – The Fighter
                  Ed Harris – The Way Back
                  Sam Rockwell – Conviction
                  Mark Ruffalo – The Kids Are All Right
                  Geoffrey Rush – The King’s Speech
                  Harris, because: overdue
                  Winner (if Harris is not nominated):
                  Bale, because it’s reportedly a brilliant performance

                  Best Supporting Actress
                  Amy Adams – The Fighter
                  Helena Bonham Carter – The King’s Speech
                  Melissa Leo – The Fighter
                  Julianne Moore – The Kids Are All Right
                  Jacki Weaver – Animal Kingdom
                  Leo, because she just sounds by far most deserving except maybe for Weaver, who’s too unknown and too not universally embraced to win, plus the Academy probably still loves her because of “Frozen River”…
                  except that makes every winning actor I predicted at least 50 years old, which seems wrong… therefore I could also see Amy Adams winning. She’s kind of their sweetheart after all, isn’t she? Or is she just a has-been sweetheart?

                  Best Director
                  Mike Leigh – Another Year
                  Darren Aronofsky – Black Swan
                  David O. Russell – The Fighter
                  Christopher Nolan – Inception
                  David Fincher – The Social Network
                  Fincher, because: making up for previous snubs (I’m of course not talking about Benjamin Button)

                  Best Picture
                  127 Hours
                  Another Year
                  Black Swan
                  The Fighter
                  The Kids Are All Right
                  The King’s Speech
                  The Social Network
                  Toy Story 3
                  Winter’s Bone
                  The Social Network, because Fincher will win best director, and it just seems like the absolute frontrunner, if only by a nose’s length
                  (to be continued)

                  Dominik said...

                  ADDITIONAL NOTES

                  Weakest link: Robert Duvall – no Golden Globe nod, no love for the movie anywhere – but without him this extremely young line-up would be even younger, and he is a real Oscar regular
                  Also vulnerable: James Franco & Ryan Gosling – they are so young… older than Eisenberg, but he’s safe!
                  Filling in: Mark Wahlberg… who else? I don’t think Jeff Bridges, I never bought that True Grit will win much Academy love… is there anybody else really?
                  Would like to see on this list but won’t:
                  no one, actually

                  Weakest link: Lesley Manville – it read to me like she was the closest to being locked after Bening all year, but with no Golden Globe nod and no SAG nod?
                  Also vulnerable: Halle Berry – but I’m pretty sure about her, because after 2000/2001 the Oscars were called racist because the total lack of black nominees in the acting categories, and since then this never happened again. And she happens to be the only black performer who has been in the talks at all in any category.
                  Filling in: 6th Nicole Kidman – Rabbit Hole never sounded like a big player to me, and it has a late release, so I don’t really think she’s in, but with Globe and SAG nod in her big I see her as a clear sixth
                  7th Julianne Moore – but I don’t really believe in two lead nods for the same film
                  8th Anne Hathaway – everybody has predicted her since April… though lately everyone seems cooled down about her…
                  Would like to see on this list but won’t:
                  Anne Hathaway and(/or) Michelle Williams –
                  both not impossible, but the competition is probably too strong. I would like to see them get their second Oscar nods both in the same year, because they somehow belong together for me. United by the mutual fate of having a gay cowboy husband ;-) , similar age and similar careers. Though Hathaway seems always a step ahead of Williams, who I personally prefer much though.

                  Supporting Actor
                  This line-up is very optimistic of me, but it looks so cool. Except for Rush, I refused to believe that he and HBC are locked for nods for as long as I could, but now I just can’t do it anymore. Maybe the bitching about the movie on this blog made me underestimate the awards bodies’ love for something like it.
                  Weakest link: Ed Harris – no Globe or SAG nod, no love for the movie, late release
                  Also vulnerable: Sam Rockwell – no Globe or SAG nod, no love for the movie
                  Filling in: 6th Andrew Garfield – because of love for the movie
                  7th Jeremy Renner – because of Globe and SAG nod, but really… why? Does anyone know what that movie is about, when it came out, who else is in it besides director Ben Affleck? Anything?
                  Justin Timberlake seems now impossible, he would have needed a Globe nod I think.
                  Would like to see on this list but won’t:
                  Michael Shannon!!!

                  (to be continued)
                  (to be continued)

                  Dominik said...

                  Supporting Actress
                  Weakest link: Julianne Moore – reportedly she’s actually co-lead with even more screen time than Bening, but I don’t really believe in two lead nods for the same film, but I want to believe she’ll be in anyway. And there seems to be no way Bening will be nominated as supporting.
                  Also vulnerable: no one really, as far as I can see
                  Filling in: 6th Mila Kunis – if they want to suck and do the exact same line-up as the Globes, but I don’t really see it happening. Despite the line-up above somehow seems too old just as the Best Actor line-up seems too young.
                  7th Kimberly Elise – see Halle Berry: there has been some talk about someone from “For Coloured Girls” slipping in, and she seems to be the most widely praised of them.
                  8th Barbara Hershey – but… no Globe nod? No SAG nod? Is there still a chance?
                  9th Lesley Manville – if she doesn’t get nominated in Lead, maybe she has a shot here?
                  I don’t think Hailee Steinfeld, as mentioned before, I never bought that True Grit will win much Academy love … why? This is probably not an argument, but…: it’s a remake!
                  Would (have) like(d) to see on this list but won’t:
                  Barbara Hershey –
                  true, I would have almost predicted her, but with no Globe and no SAG nod, I just didn’t dare. I don’t have to see Black Swan to know she should be in. Evil moms rock (on screen, not in real life of course), and Hershey has always been really good and one hasn’t really heard anything of her for just too long…
                  Elle Fanning –
                  I’ve wanted to predict her all year, just because I find it so funny to imagine Dakota freaking out over it, plus I find her much more sympathetic than Dakota. But: no Globe nod, no SAG nod, late release…
                  Michelle Williams (Shutter Island) –
                  see Michelle Williams under additional notes on Best Actress, but: early release, no love for the movie, very limited not really worthy role
                  Winona Ryder (Black Swan) –
                  time for her to come back, but: reportedly very limited role, no awards love for her so far (and the Golden Globes used to love her more than the Oscars did back in her day…)
                  Weakest link: Mike Leigh – no love for the movie at all, but I think there should be a veteran director/Oscar regular in the line-up, and he seems not impossible
                  Also vulnerable: no one, not really as far as I can see
                  Filling in: 6th Danny Boyle – “127 Hours” is none of the front running movies, but he has some sort of cool factor – doesn’t he? – and he is an Oscar winner who could become a regular
                  7th Tom Hooper – overall love for the movie aside, I’ve never heard of him, and with “The King’s Speech” not really being the front running movie, I think more prominent names are more likely
                  Would like to see on this list but won’t:
                  Martin Scorsese –
                  just because he’s Martin Scorsese, and also because I liked “Shutter Island”
                  Weakest link: Another Year
                  Also vulnerable: 127 Hours, Winter’s Bone, The Fighter
                  Filling in: don’t really care
                  Would like to see on this list but won’t:
                  No one, not really

                  Dominik said...

                  Quote "L&O: SVU is a Comedy" - what the... *lol* I actually like to watch it occasionally, and some episodes are really good imho.

                  UncleVanya said...

                  The Brits are a very strong voting block, so I think that there will be a surprise nominee in Lesley Manville, at this point. Although I hope not at the expense of Nichole Kidman.