Sunday, March 30, 2008

Who Will It Be? Your Collective Best Actress Prediction

brave film experience readers have spoken, daring to predict the Oscar lineup for BEST ACTRESS many months before the films even open. How close will your collective prediction be this year? Here it is...


You can read all about it here and see the other 16 top vote getters, too. Plus the individual ballots!

To all
Best Actress Psychic contestants: Thank you for entering the contest. We have almost 200 competitors. Because the ballots have proven so similar this year (last year there were no duplicates) TFE may be experimenting with special bonus point questions, possibly bi-monthly, so if you have entered please make sure that e-mail from filmexperience (at) gmail (dot) com is approved in your e-mail account and does not go in your junkmail!

*

81 comments:

Anonymous said...

Sally Hawkins - Happy Go Lucky
Angelina Jolie - Changeling
Kate Winslet - The Reader
Meryl Streep - Doubt
Nicole Kidman - Australia

JB said...

Ziyi Zhang?!
That would be wonderful. It blows that the one year it goes to a foreign language performance, it goes to that performance. Where's the Oscar for Catherine Deneuve, Isabelle Huppert, Audrey Tautou, Maggie Cheung, Gong Li, Zhang Ziyi, Carmen Maura, or Penenlope Cruz for that matter? At least Sophia Loren has hers.

vinci said...

How is that I'm more confident in my guesses for 2009 than I am for 2008????

J.D. said...

Okay, I almost forgot about this! Thank you for the reminder, Nat!

*rushes off to Notepad*

*ponders Anne Hathaway's chances*

*becomes sad*

:)

adam k. said...

I think Hathaway will get a blog nod, but not an oscar nod. At least, if the film can swing itself as a comedy.

Am I the only one who finds it hard not to believe in Revolutionary Road? I think the big disappointment will be Australia (another Cold Mountain or maybe Doubt (fails to transfer well to the screen). It just feels like too many stars are aligned in Road's favor, so to speak. I don't think people want it to fail. For it to miss, it'd really have to miss SPECTACULARLY. And even then, I think Kate would still get the nod.

Is there any chance her Reader part might be supporting?

adam k. said...

obviously, blog = globe. Weird typo.

Anonymous said...

i dont understand why Cold Mountain (and subsequently Nicole Kidman) is (are) always referred to as a disappointment... i dont understand at all... its one of the more beautiful film in the recent years...

JS said...

It might be Hathaway's Sherrybaby.

My only interest in "Australia" right now is to find out what the Landlord from Kung-Fu Hustle will be doing there.

Kamikaze Camel said...

But I think Hathaway has much more goodwill at the moment than Gyllenhaal had. And the Academy seems to be letting through one or two comedy-leaning films a year.

I can easily see Revolutionary Road being another Atonement. A scraped through BP nod without it's director, an acting nod and some techs. Australia will either be BIG or... not at all.

filmfan said...

There is the "SAVAGE GRACE" TRAILER finally!!!
Is it Julianne Moore's return to her greatness?

http://www.cinema.ch/video/Savage-Grace

Probably she will get the nomination for "Blindness"...

Anonymous said...

Ziyi Zhang ? LOL!! For what??? Give Gong li a an Oscar...finally

NATHANIEL R said...

she got written in for MEI LANFANG --a biopic about a Chinese opera singer. She is not the title character but she has top billing apparently. i'm not sure who she plays.

Cappero said...

Here's one :Gong Li for "Shanghai" . Filming begins soon and Weinstein has a year end release date planned. "The Reader" and Shanghai are his Oscar Vehicles for 08.

Ziyi has just a supporting role in MEI LANFANG(Another CK film about an Opera Singer). But I hear her role in "the Horseman" is Razzie worthy. That's something.

The Jack said...

I didn't realise that "The Life Before Her Eyes" was being released so early. Watching the trailer, I'm scared that I might have wasted a guess on Thurman. Oh well :(

"Happy-Go-Lucky" is out in England at some point in May as well, so i'm looking forward to seeing if everyone's Hawkins guesses have any kind of traction.

NATHANIEL R said...

well BEST ACTRESS is the kindest category to early releases so i wouldn't worry just yet

Catherine said...

Hey Nathaniel, did you get my submission? I'm the Irish Catherine.

Bernardo said...

Mmmm... I was about to go with a very boring submission.

Winslet - The Reader
Hawkins - HGL
Jolie - Changeling
Streep - Doubt
Kidman - Australia

but I decided against it and went with a longshot instead of Kidman... Portman for Brothers. Remember Sheridan got Morton (deservedly...sp?) nominated in 2003 after no precursors... hopefully precursos will occur this time!

17 Year Old Blogger said...

I think that there are 6 picks that is on the majority of the picks:
Winslet (The Reader and RR)
Kidman
Hawkins
Streep
Jolie

It seems everyone is at least picking like at least one, if not all 5, lol...

Carl said...

Not for this year, but possibly worth considering for next time - as a confirmation of receipt, you might send some sort of hot-key auto-reply with the original message attached to confirm receipt of entries, with a warning in the contest rules that if you do not receive a reply, then it is likely that you are not entered. It might also cut down on the anonymous entries on the blog that keep showing up.

NATHANIEL R said...

carl,

thank you. That's a great idea actually.

I think i've received everything since i've been checking my junkmail as well and lots of entries go there for whatever reason

N

Kamikaze Camel said...

How frustrating. I thought I was being so sneaky choosing Hawkins and now everyone seems to be choosing her as the left-of-centre choice. grrr

Anonymous said...

Julianne Moore - Blindness
Kate Winslet - The Reader
Angelina Jolie - The Changeling
Nicole Kidman - Australia
Sally Hawkins - Happy Go Lucky

NATHANIEL R said...

i'm really not sure why anonymous are predicting here. hmmmmm

Anonymous said...

the Jack said...
I have seen Life Before Her Eyes, and except for the yucky new title, it is really very good.
BUT, in my opinion, Wood and Amurri are the high points of the film. Thurman does have some very nice moments though!
BUT, the distributors obviously don't have a clue how to market this movie anyway, so will anyone see it and will they even campaign for Thurman and Wood as they should?

Personally, I am sorry I didn't go with Marianne Faithfull as a real dark horse for Irina Palm...I hear she is wonderful and God knows, that woman deserves some recognition!

Anonymous said...

i have savage grace screener on dvd!!!! anyone want it.

Anonymous said...

i read the reader is moving to 09.

Kamikaze Camel said...

Anon, Marianne Faithful doesn't have a hope for Irina Palm.

Carl said...

Anon. 10:04 v.2 -

The 15 January 2009 release date on IMDB is for its planned release in Germany...the U.S. release is still planned for 12 December 2008, early enough to get its two-week qualifying run for 2008 eligibility.

Careful - that choice is in my pick-five and you almost gave me a coronary.

Anonymous said...

Kamikaze camel....does that mean you saw Irina Palm?
Or is it just the politics of the whole thing that led you to that belief? Just curious.
I have a funny feeling that there will be many melt downs this year, and that many of these movies will tank...for instance Blindness.
If so, where will the performances come from? Probably some unforeseen sources.

vinci said...

marianne faithful would be a coup. I considered her, but her age, lack of previous recognition and, gulp, I would even say her size are all factors working against her. Of course, if it's a balls-out performance, anything is possible. Look at Fernanda Montenegro and Kathy Bates as recent examples. For your sake, anon, I hope you're rewarded for taking a chance. I'm just too much of a numbers player.

... I just learned she sang that song in Thelma & Louise! Awesome.

Bernardo said...

woohoo! had an unique ballot!!!

NATHANIEL R said...

I have to say that I think people are really underestimating Diane Lane in Nights at Rodanthe. I don't think I'm predicting her but I could totally see it happening and she got only two votes. Weird.

Kat said...

Hi Carl, I think that anon 10:04 may have read a recent Variety article which discussed the impact of Anthony Minghella's death on numerous film and TV projects. The Reader (he was a producer) was mentioned briefly. "The Reader will likely rest in the hands of producer Scott Rudin, but a once-rumoured fall release by TWC is now unlikely". I'm not familiar enough with American seasons to know whether that endangers the current release date of December that you mentioned, but I hope not.

Kamikaze Camel said...

I have not seen Irina Palm, but it has already received a release here and elsewhere around the world and nobody went to see it and I doubt it'll rack up a good enough box office for awards play. It doesn't strike me as a film that will become some sort of word-of-mouth arthouse hit.

I'd love to be proven wrong - Faithful definitely deserves some recognition - but I just can't imagine the Academy (or any other awards body in America for that matter) going for it.

Nat, I had been telling myself all along that I would choose Drew Barrymore as a nominee and then I didn't so I'll be bummed out if she gets a nom. A bit disappointing that my predix all come from the top 8. Oh well. Such is life.

Stephen G said...

I agonised over Blunt vs Knightley for The Duchess, thinking they were (potentially) highly similar prospects: young British actress playing period royal in films released at the same time. I plumped for Blunt and was amazed to see how many others did too, with Knightley getting barely any votes! Funny how group telepathy seems to work...

17 Year Old Blogger said...

So I have the same ballot as Andy H. and Jasco...That's not bad...I thought it would be like 10 others as well...

17 Year Old Blogger said...

Okay so Winslet getting 74% is a big save since you lose like handful of points now if they are on more than 75% of the lists...

E Dot said...

On the down side, I have the same ballot as five other biotches on here (jk). On the upside, I'm tied with the reigning gold medalist Steven G. Makes me feel kinda special... :)

JS said...

To Anon and Glenn - I've seen Irina Palm (saw it instead of Home Song Stories, grrrrrr). While Marianne does get a lot of tender spots within the movie which could snag people's attention, the movie as a whole is not enough. It tends to get disjointed while still trying to characterize Marianne. The world and the character just don't seem to mesh. The nearest example I can give off from my film experience would be Morvern Callar. Yeah, Irina Palm reminds me of Morvern Callar.

Oh and Glenn, regarding the Hawkins vote, I know my reasoning is that I don't want to get caught offguard by what I now call The Cotillard Effect.

Carl said...

I do not believe (wishful thinking?) that Minghella's passing by itself will push back "The Reader" to 2009, but it is certainly possible that the 'death of a thousand cuts', an accumulation of small problems, could do it. That's a problem with flirting with a mid-December release and planning production around it...any problems at all and it misses the window for 2008.

Gotta love the stones on the folks picking Watson - I feel certain that she wins the Oscar for the uber-baity "Within the Whirlwind" when it comes out...in 2009.

I am right there with you, Nathaniel, on Drew Barrymore...she was the last one out on my list this year. But I also had Jessica Lange in my top 15 and I just could not see both performances getting traction this year.

Only two of my picks in the consensus five - right in my comfort zone. Ahhh...

adam k. said...

I won't lie, I totally copied Sally Hawkins off Glenn. You shouldn't have advertised it so much, Glenn! I was not aware of her at first, but I remember you kept explaining why she was a likely nominee, and eventually I bought into it.

I also definitely considered picking Barrymore, but ultimately assumed she'd go supporting. Not sure why I thought that. But I always thought if she got an oscar nod, it'd be for supporting, and I still have that feeling. A Kate Hudson-type nomination.

vinci said...

Love the stats! Love the lists!

vinci said...

Wow, I underestimated the love for Emily Blunt. I think the group is overestimating Moore and Kidman. And, if one of the top three is a no-show, my money is Jolie.

Anonymous said...

I have a question:
Why most of the American actress who won Oscar in the Leading Category didn't deserve the Award or their performance are least important than foreigners in the last years?

-Helen Hunt: Awful, awful performance. She's playing exactly in her show "Mad about you"... Judi Dench and Helena Bonham Carter deserves more the Oscar
-Gwyneth Paltrow: Cate Blanchett, Fernanda Montenegro and Emily Watson are robbed!!!
-Hilary swank: Her second nomination is good but Oscar? Anyone of her contenders are better.
-Reese Witherspoon: Someone explain me why that performance deserves the Oscar... When I saw the film, I only think: Yes, Reese Witherspoon sings very well, but I saw Reese playing Reese with dark hair, same faces, actitudes and voice like Legally Blonde and she's forced...

The Best Performances in the last years were from foreigners actresses:
-Nicole Kidman: She's against the great Julianne Moore but she's really remarcable in "The Hours" like Virginia Woolf
-Charlize Theron: The south African actress do a perfect transformation...
-Helen Mirren: I prefer Kate Winslet or Judi Dench, but I recognize the hard work of her character...
-Marion Cotillard: The film is... but her performance is in another level... It's not like Oh Marion is playing Edith Piaf, Marion is simple Piaf.

Anonymous said...

I don't think Irina Palm is a film who like the AMPAS. Marianne Faithfull is fantastic in that movie, but...

The predictions than I have:
-Sally hawkins - Happy-Go-Lucky
-Angelina Jolie - Changeling
-Kate Winslet - Revolutionary Road
-Emily Blunt - The Young Victoria
-Julianne Moore - Blindness

Alt:
-Meryl Streep - Doubt (I didn't put her because in last years Broadway adaptation didn't like it to AMPAS...)
-Anne Hathaway - Dancing with Sheba
-Uma Thurman - Life before her eyes (Only bad thing: Awful date release)
-Sophie Okonedo - Skin
-Natalie Portman - Brothers

My secret hope: Joan Chen - The Home Song stories

Kamikaze Camel said...

The really annoying thing will be if Doubt or Revolutionary Road move to 2009. I can deal with the movies just not being good or whathaveyou, but if they're ineligible simply because they got moved I'll be pissed.

Adam, tell me 'bout it! Although I am the only person who chose my lineup so I have that going for me.

"It's not like Oh Marion is playing Edith Piaf, Marion is simple Piaf."

Like, perhaps, omgmarioncotillardisedithpiaf? I tell you, I should copyright the use of that phrase.

Anonymous said...

In the case of Doubt, I put for cuestion of before that... The panthom of the Opera, Rent, Dreamgirls, Sweeney todd... But I could be wrong and Doubt could be the most nominee picture of the year... I don't deny the power complety. Revolutionary Road is a beloved novel and Sam Mendes, Leonardo DiCaprio and Kate Winslet are actors and director who do intersting films so I put very well.

If I copyright that prhase, That's OK, but if I remember you hate the film and don't like Cotillard's performance, so what's the deal?

JS said...

Oh goodie, we're getting into La Vie En Rose again. It only became available a couple of weeks ago here and I finally got around to watching it after Grace Jones's version of "La Vie En Rose" played to the fashion shows of Pret-a-Porter convinced me to go ahead.

Here's how I felt afterwards:
I'm Terence Stamp. The people who loved La Vie En Rose is/are Guy Pierce. And I just went and said the line:

"What are you telling me?"

~points to La Vie En Rose~

"That this is an ABBA t__d?"

Marion's ABBA. The rest of the movie is the t__d.

(It's part of this season's film experience!)

Michael Parsons said...

When every review I have read singles her out I do now wish I had selected Hawkins! Doh!

Neel Mehta said...

Wow. I picked 5 of the top 6 choices, but because I left off Winslet, I still have a unique ballot.

(That Moore vs. Kidman vs. Streep reunion proved irresistible.)

John T said...

I went for Barrymore for the same reason as Nathaniel-she's one of those stars who is waiting for the inevitable Oscar-role to land them the Oscar nod. Much like how, at this point in their career, John Travolta or Harrison Ford could nab their career Oscars were they to turn in the right sort of performance, Drew Barrymore has been working with enough people in Hollywood for three decades to be able to pull off a nomination if she ever gets close to one. That said, if she's going against Streep, Winslet, Moore, and a pretty young actress playing a Queen, well, she'd better be happy with the nomination.

amir_uk said...

Ooh I have the same ballot as JC Rockefeller! And my picks were 3rd, 4th, 5th, 7th and 8th in the groupthink tally. Surprised I didn't predict the top 2.

Also surprised that Revolutionary Road trounced The Reader as people's Winslet pick. I'm guessing people think she'll go supporting for The Reader? I just felt Daldry has more Oscar caché these days than Mendes.

I'm semi-regretting not going for Barrymore for Grey Gardens in the end. It was a toss-up between her and Hawkins for my 5th spot. But, as with Adam K, I thought if Barrymore was to get the nod, she'd go supporting and Lange would be campaigned in lead.

Like your Lane theory, Nathaniel. I hope you're right - even though it'll be at the expense of my predictions.

Kamikaze Camel said...

Anon, all your examples were musicals that ended up having major issues. I get the idea (Proof, etc) but, honestly, at this point of the year unless people are predicting really absurd stuff like genre flicks or something of that nature then there's really no point in trying to argue for/against a nomination. And when it's Meryl Streep who has, what? 15 nominations? It's just common sense (however unfortunate that may be in the long run).

alex Cypher said...

I think Streep, Winslet and Jolie are safe bets.

For Streep, the part alone seals the nom.
For Winslet, well they love to nominate her and at least one of the films will score with the Academy.
For Jolie, well, it is said that every actress under 50 wanted the part. It's Eastwood people !

Then I think Sally Hawkins will surprise as the newly nommed young British actress, partly because she's probably going to win the Comedy Globe (the only competition right now is La Streep for Mamma Mia) and she's being singled out in every review.

Forget about Knightley, she's not going to impress anyone with anothey british period film.

The Fifth spot is a battle between Blunt and Kidman. Of course playing a queen is a good idea, but franky, are voters not tired about British queens ?

I smell Kidman is in, because they seem to care about her when she's in very m'as-tu-vu, high-profile films, and they snub her in smaller or indie films (To die for, The Portrait of a lady, Eyes wide shut, Dogville, Birth, Margot at the wedding... God how many times has she been snubbed ? I guess that makes her due for a second Oscar lol), and I think Luhrman knows what he's doing with Australia (if only he could change that lazy title)

saruman said...

Enjoy this year, Nathaniel, and be prepared because your worst nigthmare is coming in 2010.

She's back, and she's ready for her third.

Mark my word

Jimmy said...

Snubbed?....hasn't Meryl Streep actually been a bit taken for granted over the years? All those nominations - just one BA win. Isn't it about time to give her a second BA oscar? If Sally Field & Hillary Swank can have 2 BA ocars....shouldn't Meryl for gosh sakes? I'm hoping for her next year. Let's quit taking her for granted and tossing her a bone (nomination) all the time.

NATHANIEL R said...

saruman if you're referring to Hilary Swank in Amelia --bite your tongue. I can honestly say that I wouldn't live through it.

so for those haters wishing for my expiration or and end to the film experience.... that's how you'd finally get it

ha ha

everyone i find it odd that everyone is so sure that this top five is it. Remember Linney last year, the unexpected also ran Amy Adams. The almost made it ran out of gas Jolie. Page?

we've only just begun.

but i DO need to start living in the present. I mean. I'm looking this over and like vinci i'm already salivating for 2009: Pfeiffer! Not that I think she'll win but... you know.

Kamikaze Camel said...

Plus, I think everyone seems to be forgetting that Nicole is PREGGERS and y'all just know she's gonna be on magazines for months on end and each and every one of those articles will mention Australia. Plus, maybe having a baby will soften her image. It's like how she was seen as an "ice queen" until her divorce from Tom Cruise and she racked up two quick noms and a win. Maybe a baby will dissolve the re-freezing and they'll love her again.

...just a theory.

Nat, I'm certain that there's a surprise waiting in the wings, it's just at this particularly moment in time, not being able to foresee it (Hawkins doesn't seem to qualify anymore), means you have to make do and for a lot of ppl the top eight make a lot of sense.

On one hand I sorta hope it all gets thrown into disarray and random foreign people shoot up outta nowhere. Of course, it would ruin the competition, so maybe not...

Cagatay said...

I'm feeling as if there's a chance that Winslet might cancel herself out a little bit...
As much as I don't want it to happen, THAT would be fun.

Sid said...

Oyi -- I missed the deadline -- I hadn't even started working on my guesses though, so I'll just watch the show :)

I sucked last year (eventually getting 2/5) so it's probably better that way.

vinci said...

Glenn has a good theory. It'll be interesting to see if it pans out.

Anonymous said...

jolie's snub this year stuck in alot of peoples throats esp becuase cate b's perf in e-tga was an embarrassment even she knew that on oscar night,they will be honoring jolie for afine perf and as a sorry..

terry said...

I agree with you Nat, 2010 looks promising as well

Sigourney Weaver - Avatar
Meryl Streep - Julie & Julia
Angelina Jolie - Atlas Shrugged
Michelle Pfeiffer - Cheri
Renee Zellweger - My one and only
Hilary Swank - Amelia
Charlize Theron - Sympathy for Lady Vengeance
Scarlett Johansson - Mary, Queen of Scots
Robin Wright - The Private Lives of Pippa Lee
(Kate Winslet - The Reader ) ??
Saoirse Ronan - The Lovely Bones

and I'm guessing the usual suspects
Nicole Kidman in something
Cate Blanchett in something

vinci said...

"The Devil Wears Prada" hosts three actresses in the top 10.

vinci said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
vinci said...

... So does "The Hours" ...

vinci said...

... but between the two films, my feeling is that only one actress is going to get nominated ... and she's in both films!

Anonymous said...

Don't forget in 2010 these ones:

*Adriana Barraza, Azucena: 375 dias
*Tilda Swinton, Come like Shadows.
*Emily Watson, Within with Whirlwind (OR maybe 2009?)
*Gong Li, Shanghai.
*Naomi Watts y Nicole Kidman (Need-if they start in this autumn)
*Kerry Washington, Mama Black Widow
*Julia Roberts, Duplicity

NATHANIEL R said...

2010?


NOOOooooooooOOoooOoooooo

i must live in the present

Hayden said...

Yay! I have a unique ballot. I was worried I'd match with someone, but I look pretty original.

rubi-kun said...

I didn't receive any email back yet. I even checked the junk mail and nothing. Was I supposed to get something?

NATHANIEL R said...

i haven't sent out the email yet.

Ric said...

I totally agree with Jimmy when he says Meryl Streep has been taken for granted through the years.

Anonymous said...

Question. Let's say Sarah Jessica Parker gets a GG nomination for the Sex and the City Movie. It will be her 9th nomination but 2nd film nomination. Does she still get the -2 becuase it's nomination 6 and higher?

Anonymous said...

Another question:
On one page you have 193 contestants, then you say 194 than on another you say 200. Which is it?

NATHANIEL R said...

it's 194 (i was not counting myself when i gave your collective actress prediction). I play but I can't win since I host.

Anonymous said...

Question. Let's say Sarah Jessica Parker gets a GG nomination for the Sex and the City Movie. It will be her 9th nomination but 2nd film nomination. Does she still get the -2 becuase it's nomination 6 and higher?

Kamikaze Camel said...

Not every Clint Eastwood movie gets nominated, just fyi. Three best picture noms out of four films and he's now making a (correct me if I'm wrong) paranormal movie? I reckon they'll pass.

Anonymous said...

Variety is reporting that The Reader might not be ready for a fall release!

vinci said...

Did we overlook Emily Beecham? A nun who might give Meryl Streep a run for her money?

Anonymous said...

Nicole Kidman as Best Actress in Australia, that is my prediction for the winner of the Oscar as Best Actress.

the other nominees could be:
Meryl Streep - doubt
Michelle Pfeiffer - Chéri
Kate Winslet - Revolutionary Road
Laura Linney - The Other Man