Monday, October 13, 2008

Oscar Predictions & Golden Globe Actress Thoughts

All done. For now. Predicting the Oscars is like making your bed in the morning... the work is never really done. As I was wrapping up I got to thinking about the Golden Globes and the Best Actress race. While there seems to be only 8 clearly definable contenders for Oscar's Best Actress at this juncture there's almost no one for Best Actress in a Musical or Comedy except...

Anne Hathaway - Rachel Getting Married
and Sally Hawkins - Happy-Go-Lucky


But who else? Most of the women who might land on Oscar ballots this year can't conceivably be shoved into that categorization. This might make the nominations truly interesting and mostly free of Oscar concerns.

???

Emma Thompson - Last Chance Harvey
Rachel McAdams -The Lucky Ones
Frances McDormand -Burn After Reading
Kat Dennings -Nick and Norah's Infinite Playlist
Sarah Jessica Parker -Sex & The City: The Movie
Renée Zellweger -Leatherheads
??? & ???
Meryl Streep & Amanda Seyfried -Mamma Mia!
Tina Fey & Amy Poehler -Baby Mama
Frances McDormand & Amy Adams -Miss Pettigrew Lives for a Day

With so few awards-friendly performances in the mix, this could be quite a low-stress / big-party night for the 5 or 6 comedic gals who snag this particular nomination.
Who do you think those lucky plucky funny ladies will be?

55 comments:

Anonymous said...

I really doubt that Academy members are still in mood for subtitles and "I've loved you so long" is not going to be big with Oscars, that's why I think Sally Hawkins will make it instead of Kristin Scott-Thomas, over whom she won Silver Bear at Berlin FF. And if they both make it, I suppose it's Kate Winslet to fall out (as much as I love her, that Revolutionary Road trailer doesn't give me much hope).

My predictions for GG Comedy nominees: Anne Hathaway, Sally Hawkins, Meryl Streep, Frances McDormand for "Burn After Reading" and Renee 'How come you've just written her full name?' Zellweger /she has even scored a nom for 'Miss Potter'/.

Howler

Lisa said...

I really hope Meryl wins, not because her role in Mamma Mia! was so impressive, but because it would be incredibly awesome if she won the Comedy/Musical ánd Drama Golden Globes. Her speeches are the best.

NATHANIEL R said...

Howler -- how could you remind me of that? Why u wanna hurt me?

Lisa --agreed on Meryl's speeches. This is why we need one at the Oscars again ;) That and 26 years of great performances since her last win.

Anonymous said...

Angelina Hater

Anonymous said...

You have something wron. the Winslet text and the Angelina text are not in order. Do you really think that they are going to choose Hathaway, or Scott-Thomas over winslet or Jolie? wake up men.

NATHANIEL R said...

anon 4:09 Angie knows of my deep love and that's all that matters ;)

anon 4:12 already corrected. Scott-Thomas has (arguably) the best reviews of the year. IF they can handle subtitles this year she seems risky to bet against. As for Winslet and Jolie. Jolie is the only one with detractors already (people who don't like Hathaway's performance are harder to find) and Winslet is already possibly running into troubled waters with two films opening so closely back to back one of which she is already (supposedly) not going to support. Which can be bad for business.

Michael said...

I really don't see how Sally Hawkins, Anne Hathaway, Sarah Jessica Parker (they love her) and Meryl Streep could miss out on a Golden Globe comedy/musical nom. I wouldn't mind Amanda Seyfried being the last one. She was great in Mamma Mia, and the film is a gigantic hit. So there's your five :-D

Anonymous said...

Have you seen an oscar campaign like the one Jolie is having this year?

- The twins
- Cannes
- The Twins Photos
- The Wanted finnancial sucess
- Clint Esatwood movie
- W magazine photos
- Taking a role from Tom Cruise
- Clint directing Atlas Shrugged
- Her "love" with a real chance of getting 2 nods


you still think she will lose this year oscar
- Universal 100% for her after

Catharina said...

Julianne Moore for Blindness

http://apps.facebook.com/lovecinema/celebrity/profile/Julianne-Moore--1960

Anonymous said...

And I saw Anne Hathaway movie, and I tell you something. She is far away from being the lock you oscar pundits are saying she is. She is now oficiallly my candidate to snub of the year

Anonymous said...

The Globes ADORE Sarah Jessica Parker. She's in for the "Sex and the City" movie. Then Meryl for "Mamma Mia!" (she'll be double nodded for this and "Doubt"). That leaves something random -- if they have long memories, then Tina Fey for "Baby Mama". If not, maybe they'll throw a bone to one of those "Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants" ladies. That plus Sally Hawkins and Anne Hathaway dueling it out for the win, though both are getting Oscar nominated. Hathaway might be pushed drama too.

Anonymous said...

Meryl is a serious contender for the Golden Globe for musical/comedy especially since mama mia performed so well in the foreign markets, after all this is the Hollywood FOREIGN Press we're talking about.

I know this post is on the musical/comedy race but Nathaniel, don't count Cate Blanchett out of the Drama race, she's been nominated 7 times in the past decade, which is a pretty strong statistic.

NATHANIEL R said...

anon 4:26 i never claimed that Hathaway was a "lock" -- i'm actually worried about the potential snub already (i see most of the top 8 as being roughly equal right now... prior to all the films being out... for various reasons) and like i say in the commentary, sometimes Oscar doesn't go for crabby girls. They usually like them more tearful a la Jolie.

oh and anon 4:24 i do think Jolie will lose the Oscar. I can't imagine her winning given the non-beloved nature of the performance. People like the performance a lot, yes. But too win people have to be gaga for it and consider you #1. Plus she already has an Oscar so there's no "overdue" helping. If anything she's got the opposite problem of "overrewarded" --or at least she does if you believe what the pundits have been saying for decades: that the biggest stars (like Tom Cruise, Paul Newman, Julia Roberts, etcetera...) are usually made to wait a long time because they are so richly rewarded career-wise and there are jealousy factors.

Fox said...

I think Amy Poehler in Baby Mama gives one of the best performances of the year... male or female. Not because she was funny, but because she takes it beyond that and creates a vulnerable, relatable, and deceptively complicated charcter.

She won't get nominated, though, because 1. it's a comedy, and 2. the voters are just congressmen to the studio's lobbyists.

p.s. NOBODY should be voted for Mamma Mia! Come on guys!

mrripley said...

drama g/g

winslet
kidman
streep
jolie
scott thomas

comedy gg
hathaway
streep
parker
thompson
hawkins

Billy McLellan said...

if anyone is nominated for GG Best Actress Comedy for a silly/fun mid-level hit, then i hope its not anyone from "Baby Mama"... i'd be rooting for Anna Faris in "The House Bunny"

Anonymous said...

Jennifer Aniston in Management is the filler nominee in the Comedy/Musical comedy.

1) They're star fuckers
2) the film is an indie dramedy (or so it seems)
3) red carpet drama

Anonymous said...

dark horse for GG comedy :

Reese Witherspoon - Four Christmas

(they LUV her)

adam k. said...

I've long thought Hawkins, Hathaway, Parker and Streep were locks at the globes.

Parker because obviously they love Carrie Bradshaw (how many globes has she won already? 4?) and there's usually a mainstream rom com hit somewhere in the globe mix. This year it's SaTC (which i think will be nommed for best pic, too, reviews be damned).

Streep because she's Streep, and it's a musical. Duh. Mamma Mia I think is a riskier bet for best pic, though I still think it'll make it, and Streep definitely will. She was nominated for She-Devil, after all.

And the other two are oscar players. So there you go.

I think the last spot could go to Seyfried (if they really like Mamma Mia), McDormand (for either of her projects), or perhaps Tina Fey (if she's able to ride her Emmy wave and Palin impersonation love-in right into the Golden Globes). Peohler, I guess, could make it, but I think Fey has a better shot since she's so hot right now.

Anonymous said...

On the musical/comedy category I think Sarah Jessica must be in.

I must say that I would be very happy with this Oscar nominees list.
1.Streep
2.Winslet
3.Kidman
4.Thomas
5.Whoever

I love Streep and Winslet. I think Kidman's 2 nominations are very few. She deserves more. And I really like it when they notice that there are good performances outside USA (on Thomas).

Nat, why do you put Kate on 5th spot? Because of the double nomination problem or because you think she is between getting it and not?

And finally, do you think Meryl has the biggest chance? Or was the no1 spot light-heartedly (sorry for the spelling and maybe grammar :p) chosen?

Jim

StinkyLulu said...

I wouldn't be surprised to see Tina Fey get all kinds of Globe attention this year.

And I'm totally with everyone else above who has said SJP should be in for a nom at the Globes.

I'll demur on Best Actress for now but, for Supporting, I think Penelope Cruz is nearly locked (even when Oscar voters don't like Woody, they tend to have a soft spot for his Supporting Actresses and Cruz's role is back to form in that department for the Woodster). I also think Viola Davis is pretty solid, all things considered. Taraji, Tomei and Winslet are much more vulnerable to shifting winds of opinion on their films.

That said, it does seem that Rachel At The Wedding is poised to be in the Little Miss Juno spot nomination-wise this year, so the women might benefit from some "coasting" there...

adam k. said...

And for best pic...

Burn After Reading
Happy-Go-Lucky
Mamma Mia!
Rachel Getting Married
Sex and the City

Am I forgetting anything? Mamma Mia could miss, since it was so bad, but it was still a big mainstream hit, at the level of Hairspray and Prada, and lots of people LOVE it, so I think it's got as good as anything, unless it gets crowded out.

Actually, of this lineup, I could see Rachel Getting Married winning.

But oops, I forgot Slumdog Millionare... maybe that would bump Mamma Mia...

John T said...

My guesses would be:

Hathaway (and my hunch, at this long point, the winner), because she's got a shot with Oscar.

Hawkins, because she also has a shot with Oscar.

Streep, because I think there's a law at the Globes that if Streep does a film, and there's a shortage of shoo-in nominees, she must be nominated.

Parker, because she's about as beloved at the Globes as Streep, and because she made a lot of money.

And for the final filler nomination, my hunch is that Reese Witherspoon's Four Christmases, which will assuredly get a lot of money, will be the fifth nominee.

Notluke said...

Hm... I am starting to think the last-minute-removal of Kate from my Actress Psychic (hinthintnudgenudge) ballot wasn't that crazy after all. (What with the first skeptical voices about Revolutionary Road and Rudin-Weinstein feud over The Reader.) Of course, putting Kerry Washington in her stead was, but never mind.

As for of the Globes, at this early point SJP is the only one I cannot imagine getting snubbed (six consecutive nominations for playing that very character already).

Hawkins should be a no-brainer seeing as I keep predicting her for an Oscar nom, but a performance in Mike Leigh's film nominated in the comedy category? Doesn't it seem, dunno, odd to anyone else?

And what do people think of Amy Adams's chances for Sunshine Cleaning rather than Miss Pettigrew? Does it have a release date yet?

Anyway, I think I'd go with Adams for SC, Hawkins, McDormand for Burn, Parker, and Streep.

Guy said...

Having seen "Last Chance Harvey," I'm pretty sure Emma Thompson will get into the Comedy/Musical category. It's a lovely little performance -- hardly a stretch for her, but a bit like an expanded version of her character sketch in "Love Actually."

Anne Hathaway will be nominated in Comedy/Musical, but am I the only one who think she really belongs in Drama? There's some real wit in the performance, sure, but I wouldn't call it a comic turn.

Rick said...

I am betting Streep for a double nomination at the Globes ... and an Oscar nod for "Doubt"

Anonymous said...

No doubt, Streep will be a double GG nominee. I am hoping for a Oscar nod for Kidman with Australia. She seems to be strong in the trailer.

Anonymous said...

It would be wonderful if Kate Winslet received another Oscar nomination.

Perhaps this is her year ....

She must be a record holder as the youngest person ever with 5 noms.

wgcareyjr said...

I think subtitles are irrelevant ......

How quickly we have forgotten Marion and La Vie En Rose.

Anonymous said...

Drama:
1. Streep
2. Winslet
3. Kidman
4. Scott-Thomas
5. Jolie

C/M:
1. Hathaway
2. Hawkins
3. Streep
4. SJP
5. ??? It's a toss up, IMO.

As for Oscars -- I totally see Jolie getting bumped off the list, and deservedly. Changeling is another Clint film that leaves me dry, and the editing is pretty horrible. If the movie goes down in flames, I expect Jolie to as well.

With Kidman, I see her getting in if Australia is huge, but that's a big "if". It it gets BP/BD like I'm predicting, she's in and will probably cause Scott-Thomas, Hathaway, and Hawkins to fight out the last 2 spots. If Australia fails, those three are all in.

Someone mentioned Cate Blanchett, but her role is barely lead and will totally be lost in the background as the film centers mainly around Pitt's character. That, and the fact that her role isn't baity... at all. She'll probably give a strong performance, but nothing deserving of a nomination.

Billy Held An Oscar said...

As long as I do not have to hear Cate Blanchett's name called then I shall be happy.

Rob said...

Are we 100% certain "Rachel Getting Married" is going to be placed in the Comedy category?

Because the movie is most definitively NOT a comedy, and when a movie even approaches straddling the drama/comedy line, Globes are unpredictable.

Let's not forget "About Schmidt" was nominated in the Drama categories and I'd argue that had a lot more comedic elements than "Rachel."

Anonymous said...

GG Comedy - Actress

Emma Thompson - Last Chance Harvey
Amy Adams - Miss Pettigrew Lives for a Day
Tina Fey - Baby Mama
Sally Hawkins - Hapy Go Lucky
Tea Leoni - Ghost Town

alt: Reese Witherspoon - Four Christmases

NATHANIEL R said...

ROB we're not, no. But it seems a sensible placement given that things like THE SAVAGES went there.

and that she could actually win there.

Billy Held An Oscar said...

What does Sex and The City : The Movie qualify as ? Comedy ?

Anonymous said...

Over at Awards Daily, one poster was saying that "Four Months.." is eligible this year according to AMPAS rules. It didn't get chosen as its country's entry for foreign film (like that Brazilian film (?City of God?) but it played in LA in January. Is this accurate?

Because then Anna Maria Marinca could be added to the Best Actress slate (and Best Screenplay, etc, etc.).

NATHANIEL R said...

This is not accurate. The film had a one week qualifying release in 2008 to be eligible for other Oscars besides foreign film. Therefore it was eligible in all categories last year.

Anonymous said...

meryl meryl meryl

double GG winner for mamma mia and doubt

oscar for doubt

the worlds greatest actor and now A list box office draw (prada and mamma mia consecutively)

no one else comes close

plus-the wonderful acceptance speeches-we might get to hear 3 this year (GG and oscars)

hooray

Anonymous said...

My predictions:

Drama:
1. Streep: Duh!
2. Jolie: They LOVE her. Three Consecutive Globes and four Nominations at 32...
3. Hathaway: I convince me more that she's a la Nicholson in "about Schmidt"
4. Winslet: The "if" factor. Sorry but I don't trust the RR trailer and Where's "the Reader"?
5. Kidman: Even if Australia didn't fix well, is possible a considerable nominations at HFFA, a la Cold Mountain.
If we have six: Kristin Scott Thomas / Melissa Leo: Two indie and very subte performances...

Comedy:

1. Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky: The principal contender in this category
2. Frances McDormand: I think she's in but for wich film? Burn After Reading or Ms. Pettigrew lives for a Day?
3. Sarah jessica Parker, sex & the City: They NOMINATED her for "the Family Stone"...
4. Meryl Streep, Mamma Mia!: Duh! Again...
5. Rachel Weisz, the Brothers Bloom: Even if she's supporting at OSsars, she could go lead for HFFA.
If we have six: Emma Thompson, Last Chace Harvey: I don't know... but she's Emma Thompson

Glenn said...

Perhaps it is just my desire to see her get a mention at a major award show but I'm thinking the five Musical/Comedy contenders will be:

1. Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
2. Meryl Streep, Mamma Mia!
3. Sally Hawkins, Happy-go-Lucky
4. Sarah Jessica Parker, Sex and the City
...and...

...AND...

5. Anna Faris, The House Bunny.

No, seriously! This is the same awards group that nominated Reese Witherspoon for Legally Blonde, Alicia Silverstone for Clueless, Sandra Bullock for Miss Congeniality amongst others. And Faris' reviews were nigh on raves even if the film itself was as kindly met. Perhaps I'm daydreaming, perhaps I'm not, but I really think she is a contender.

Or, if not her why not Katherine Heigl for 27 Dresses. Or Tina Fey (who's so hot right now as we all know) for Baby Mama. Or, hell, even Abigail Breslin for All American Girl got some good reviews. And perhaps we're all forgetting Zooey Deschanel for The Happening.

Glenn said...

"if the film itself was as kindly met."

if the film itself wasN'T as kindly met.

Glenn said...

Also, wow, it turns out they didn't nominate Silverstone for Clueless. WTF? Replace her with Cameron Diaz for There's Something About Mary or Jamie Lee Curtis in True Lies (she WON!) or etc etc...

Anonymous said...

My others predictions at Globes:

Actor Drama:
1. Sean Penn, Milk: Almost a guaranteed nominee...
2. Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of benjamin button: They like epic films
3. Viggo Mortensen, the Road: My dark Horse of the season...
4. Frank Langhella, Frost/Nixon: I don't know his real chances...
5. Mickey Rourke, the Wrestler: I don't trust him at HFFA... only if "The Wrestler" is a hit
If we have six: Hugh Jackman, Australia / Daniel Craig, Defiance: Two big stars in Hollywood projects.

Comedy:

1. Richard Jenkins, the Visitor: Maybe his film is too indie or too dramatic, but maybe he's only chances...
2. Robert Downey Jr: Two big Hollywood projects, one lead (iron man) and one supporting (Tropic Thunder). Even two nominations is possible...
3. Josh brolin, W: He's in this year's Charlie Wilson's War?
4. Brad Pitt, Burn After Reading: He's hilarious and HFFA LOVES that performance. Plus: Bonus points for The Curious Case of Benjamin button.
5. Ricky Gervais, Ghost Town: This category is weak this year so...
if we have six: Dustin Hoffman, Last Chances Harvey: I don't know... but he's Dustin Hoffman

Kamila said...

You forgot about Elizabeth Banks (W.). I think she will be a GG nominee.

My predictions:

Elizabeth Banks, W.
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Sally Hawkins, Happy Go Lucky
Meryl Streep, Mamma Mia!
Emma Thompson, Last Chance Harvey

Anonymous said...

I think Tina Fey has a great chance of a nod for Baby Mama...the Globes LOVE to have actors stretched across different categories for TV and Movies, and then they usually win one.

Lev Lewis said...

Off topic but I'm really upset at the bad grade for Synecdoche.

Michael Parsons said...

Here goes nothing

Amy Adams - Sunshine Cleaning
Anna Faris - The House Bunny
Meryl Streep - Mama Mia
Sally Hawkins - Happy-Go-Lucky
Anne Hathaway - Rachel Getting Married

I can see Tina Fey upsetting here though, and Anna Faris being booted off the list. Is Rachel Getting Married really a comedy?

Julia said...

I don't quite understand why Tina Fey would be nominated for Baby Mama. Yes, she's having a hot year, but so was Katherine Heigl last year with the success of Knocked Up. KU made more money at the box office, and had more critical acclaim than Baby Mama possessed.

I think Meryl will make it in Musical and Comedy solely for the "We HAD to nominate a musical for the category's title sake." After all, they DID nominate Beyonce in the same category for Dreamgirls a few years back.

And I actually don't think the Aniston pick is that far off the mark. GG likes to have at least one "WTF" nomination.

Kamikaze Camel said...

But Heigl WOULD have been nominated if the category were thinner, like it it this year. Last year had a lot of comedies AND musicals and, well, musicals get preference (see: Nikki Blonsky and Helena Bonham Carter).

Anonymous said...

Yay, Globes predictions!

Lead Actress -- Comedy/Musical

1. Sally Hawkins, "Happy-Go-Lucky"
2. Anne Hathaway, "Rachel Getting Married"
3. Meryl Streep, "Mamma Mia!"
4. Sarah Jessica Parker, "Sex and the City: The Movie"
5. Tina Fey, "Baby Mama"

Reese Witherspoon and Anna Faris could throw a wrench into that fifth slot, but Tina Fey's on fire right now, so I'm good with those five.

Lead Actress -- Drama

1. Meryl Streep, "Doubt"
2. Angelina Jolie, "Changeling"
3. Kate Winslet, "Revolutionary Road"
4. Kristin Scott Thomas, "I've Loved You So Long"
5. Nicole Kidman, "Australia"

They'll get Nicole back at the Globes regardless.

Lead Actress -- Oscars

1. Meryl Streep, "Doubt"
2. Angelina Jolie, "Changeling"
3. Sally Hawkins, "Happy-Go-Lucky
4. Kate Winslet, "Revolutionary Road"
5. Anne Hathwaway, "Rachel Getting Married"

And the guys (for equality purposes):

Lead Actor -- Comedy/Musical

1. Josh Brolin, "W."
2. Brad Pitt, "Burn After Reading"
3. Jim Carrey, "Yes Man"
4. Ben Stiller, "Tropic Thunder"
5. Ricky Gervais, "Ghost Town"

Lead Actor -- Drama

1. Frank Langella, "Frost/Nixon"
2. Brad Pitt, "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
3. Mickey Rourke, "The Wrestler"
4. Sean Penn, "Milk"
5. Leonardo DiCaprio, "Revolutionary Road"
6. Viggo Mortensen, "The Road"

Lead Actor -- Oscars

1. Frank Langella, "Frost/Nixon"
2. Mickey Rourke, "The Wrestler"
3. Sean Penn, "Milk"
4. Viggo Mortensen, "The Road"
5. Leonardo DiCaprio, "Revolutionary Road"

Michael said...

Clint Eastwood may get a scoring mention for THE CHANGELING. They won't resist forever.

And I'd be surprised if Desplat's BENJAMIN BUTTON score isn't among the five nominated. No weird Ang Lee sex scenes to keep him out this time, and those who were present at the scoring sessions speak VERY highly of the score.

- Opinionated Australian

Bing147 said...

For me, the comedy musical acting categories are panning out to look like (note, not convinced Hathaway or Jenkins will end up in comedy but we'll see):

Actor:

1. Dustin Hoffman-Last Chance Harvey (its such a weak year that this will be an easy get, they just announced that they're moving it into the AFI fest and it looks like they're taking this one seriously: http://www.incontention.com/?p=2358)
2. Josh Brolin-W-This is an easy get, again, strong year and he's been having a big 2 years.

beyone those 2 its tricky...

3. Robert Downey Jr-Tropic Thunder (they'll push him lead here)
4. Phillip Seymour Hoffman-Synechdoche New York (the movie will be met with mixed response but strong enough for him to get in with the weak field)
5. James Franco-Pineapple Express (great place to honor his strong year that easy replacements would be Seth Rogen for Zack and Miri or if they can look over the flops of their movies, either Ricky Gervais in Ghost Town or Steve Coogan in Hamlet 2)

Best Actress:

1. Sally Hawkins-Happy Go Lucky (duh)
2. Emma Thompson-Last Chance Harvey (again, a weak year and they seem ready to push it)
3. Meryl Streep-Mamma Mia (LOCK, too big a hit for these star fuckers to pass up_
4. Sarah Jessica Parker-S&TC (they love her)
5. Tina Fey-Baby Mama (she's hot right now but Anna Faris/Rachel Weisz/Elizabeth Banks if they put her lead could easily get this spot)

ganggreen924 said...

Don't forget about the Weinsteins and Shanghia with John Cusack and Gong Li. It could very well get some tech nods.

Anonymous said...

Ellen Burstyn
Anne Hathaway
Sally Hawkins
Meryl Streep
Emma Thompson

Peter Chan said...

how about Amy Adams for 'Sunshine Cleaning'... if they ever get the release out in time.